Aaron Leasher
P
El Paso Chihuahuas
+0.2
WAR
Age 30
LHP
6'3" / 208 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.61
FIP4.61
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.0%
BB%11.0%
K-BB%11.1%
IP62
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | AZL Padres 2 | 7 | 7 | 23 | 107 | 23 | 11 | 1 | 14.6% | 12.9% | 1.3% | 5.56 | 4.21 | +0.2 |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | Lake Elsinore Storm | 24 | 18 | 119 | 520 | 117 | 52 | 7 | 16.8% | 11.7% | 1.7% | 3.49 | 4.10 | +1.6 |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 23 | 19 | 122 | 511 | 114 | 38 | 12 | 17.5% | 7.9% | 3.2% | 3.60 | 4.38 | +1.3 |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 16 | 15 | 65 | 280 | 62 | 26 | 6 | 18.2% | 10.1% | 2.6% | 3.76 | 4.27 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 35 | 11 | 87 | 381 | 91 | 38 | 10 | 21.0% | 10.5% | 2.6% | 4.23 | 4.10 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 29 | 9 | 64 | 287 | 51 | 52 | 5 | 15.4% | 19.2% | 1.8% | 5.37 | 5.25 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | SD | 11 | 11 | 62 | 261 | 58 | 29 | 8 | 22.0% | 11.0% | 2.9% | 4.61 | 4.61 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | SD | 60 | — | 60 | 252 | 55 | 28 | 8 | 21.9% | 10.9% | 3.0% | 4.63 | 4.66 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | SD | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 53 | 26 | 7 | 21.8% | 10.9% | 3.1% | 4.67 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | SD | 55 | — | 55 | 231 | 50 | 25 | 7 | 21.5% | 11.0% | 3.2% | 4.73 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | SD | 52 | — | 52 | 219 | 47 | 25 | 7 | 21.2% | 11.2% | 3.3% | 4.82 | 4.89 | +0.0 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | SD | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 43 | 24 | 7 | 20.8% | 11.4% | 3.4% | 4.94 | 5.01 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | SD | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 39 | 23 | 7 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 3.5% | 5.06 | 5.15 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 134 | 79 | 479 | 2086 | 368 | 238 | 49 | 17.6% | 11.4% | 2.4% | 4.04 | 4.35 | +5.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 33 | 200 | 870 | 154 | 99 | 20 | 17.6% | 11.4% | 2.4% | 4.04 | 4.35 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Aaron Leasher (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.61 | 22.0% | 11.0% | 2.9% | — | 4.72 | 21.8% | 10.8% | 171 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.68 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 175 | 84 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2025 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 126 | 84 |
| Brandon Mann L 2028 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 3.99 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.74 | 3.59 | 190 | 84 |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.73 | 20.7% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .271 | 3.03 | 21.8% | 17.1% | 88 | -0.70 | 2.38 | 306 | 82 |
| Antonio Bastardo L 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.54 | 24.9% | 9.8% | 4.2% | .268 | 7.97 | 15.0% | -1.4% | 20 | +3.43 | 2.98 | 145 | 82 |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.33 | 19.1% | 9.0% | 3.1% | .245 | 3.85 | 16.6% | 8.5% | 64 | -0.48 | 3.06 | 244 | 82 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.77 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.21 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.44 | 3.70 | 181 | 82 |
| Marlon Arias L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .330 | 3.73 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.57 | 3.73 | 154 | 81 |
| Phil Coke L 2029 · 3.85 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.85 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.1% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.81 | 3.04 | 101 | 77 |
| Luke Westphal L 2028 · 4.68 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.68 | 22.7% | 13.1% | 3.4% | .321 | 4.72 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 95 | +0.04 | 2.97 | 294 | 77 |
| Brian Flynn L 2025 · 4.49 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.49 | 17.7% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 277 | 77 |
| Adam Loewen L 2027 · 3.84 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.84 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 1.5% | .287 | 3.62 | 23.2% | 7.3% | 98 | -0.22 | 2.96 | 176 | 77 |
| Tommy Layne L 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.64 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.6% | .284 | 3.27 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 97 | -0.37 | 1.32 | 182 | 76 |
| Keith Hessler L 2025 · 5.04 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.04 | 19.8% | 13.3% | 3.5% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 228 | 76 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2027 · 4.08 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.08 | 22.1% | 14.3% | 1.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.09 | 145 | 76 |
| Ryan Buchter L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.34 | 24.3% | 9.3% | 3.8% | .202 | 4.17 | 25.3% | 15.6% | 85 | -0.17 | 2.37 | 296 | 76 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2025 · 3.66 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.66 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 2.2% | .342 | 2.89 | 20.6% | 17.2% | 29 | -0.77 | 2.89 | 101 | 75 |
| Aaron Brown L 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.36 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 4.5% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | 269 | 75 |
| Colt Hynes L 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.42 | 16.2% | 8.4% | 1.1% | .290 | 3.68 | 17.9% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.26 | 3.42 | 152 | 75 |
| James Jones L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.27 | 21.9% | 13.0% | 2.5% | .230 | 4.67 | 23.9% | 8.8% | 35 | +0.40 | 3.58 | 127 | 74 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.