Aaron Leasher
P
El Paso Chihuahuas
Age 30
LHP
6'3" / 208 lbs
AAA
peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 43 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 105114vR 123
ERA4.60
FIP4.60
K%22.0%
BB%11.0%
K-BB%11.1%
ROS IP43
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 43 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | AZL Padres 2 | 7 | 7 | 23 | 107 | 23 | 11 | 1 | 100% | 3.2 | 14.6% | 12.9% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 5.56 | 4.21 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | AZL Padres 2 | 7 | 7 | 23 | 107 | 23 | 11 | 1 | 100% | 3.2 | 21.5% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 0.9% | 5.56 | 3.10 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 18 | 119 | 520 | 117 | 52 | 7 | 75% | 4.9 | 16.8% | 11.7% | 5.0% | 1.6% | 3.49 | 4.07 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 18 | 119 | 520 | 117 | 52 | 7 | 75% | 4.9 | 22.5% | 10.0% | 12.5% | 1.3% | 3.49 | 3.21 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 19 | 122 | 511 | 114 | 38 | 12 | 83% | 5.3 | 17.5% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 3.5% | 3.60 | 4.52 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 19 | 122 | 511 | 114 | 38 | 12 | 83% | 5.3 | 22.3% | 7.4% | 14.9% | 2.3% | 3.60 | 3.44 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 15 | 65 | 280 | 62 | 26 | 6 | 94% | 4.0 | 18.2% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 3.76 | 4.46 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 15 | 65 | 280 | 62 | 26 | 6 | 94% | 4.0 | 22.1% | 9.3% | 12.9% | 2.1% | 3.76 | 3.59 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 35 | 11 | 87 | 381 | 91 | 38 | 10 | 31% | 2.5 | 21.0% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 2.3% | 4.23 | 3.89 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 35 | 11 | 87 | 381 | 91 | 38 | 10 | 31% | 2.5 | 23.9% | 10.0% | 13.9% | 2.6% | 4.23 | 3.81 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 9 | 64 | 287 | 51 | 52 | 5 | 31% | 2.2 | 15.4% | 19.2% | -3.8% | 1.7% | 5.37 | 5.18 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 9 | 64 | 287 | 51 | 52 | 5 | 31% | 2.2 | 17.8% | 18.1% | -0.3% | 1.7% | 5.37 | 4.97 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | SD | 7 | 7 | 43 | 182 | 40 | 20 | 5 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.0% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 2.9% | 4.60 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | SD | 7 | 7 | 40 | 170 | 37 | 19 | 5 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.8% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 3.1% | 4.70 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | SD | 2 | 2 | 15 | 63 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 7.5 | 21.8% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 3.1% | 4.70 | 4.78 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 15 | 63 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 7.4 | 21.8% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 3.1% | 4.70 | 4.40 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 189 | 94 | 27 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.8% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 3.1% | 4.70 | 4.40 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 134 | 79 | 479 | 2086 | 368 | 238 | 49 | 59% | 3.6 | 17.6% | 11.4% | 6.2% | 2.4% | 4.04 | 4.36 | +5.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 33 | 200 | 870 | 153 | 99 | 21 | 59% | 3.6 | 17.6% | 11.4% | 6.2% | 2.4% | 4.04 | 4.36 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Aaron Leasher (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.60 | 22.0% | 11.0% | 2.9% | — | 4.78 | 21.8% | 10.6% | 40 | +0.18 | — | — | — |
| Luke Westphal L 2028 · 4.48 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.48 | 22.7% | 13.1% | 3.0% | .321 | 4.52 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 95 | +0.04 | 2.97 | 294 | 78 |
| Travis Blackley L 2028 · 4.97 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.97 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.3% | .324 | 4.50 | 10.5% | 0.0% | 137 | -0.47 | 3.84 | 225 | 70 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.41 | 22.7% | 5.4% | 2.8% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 153 | 68 |
| Roy Merritt L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.01 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.3% | .293 | 3.88 | 16.2% | 10.4% | 116 | -0.13 | 3.88 | 129 | 68 |
| Aaron Laffey L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.04 | 13.5% | 9.7% | 1.6% | .318 | 4.37 | 12.5% | 5.2% | 192 | +0.33 | 3.53 | 282 | 67 |
| Brian Flynn L 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.46 | 17.7% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 277 | 67 |
| Everett Teaford L 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 103 | 66 |
| Hector Hernandez L 2024 · 3.57 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.57 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 121 | 65 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2025 · 5.37 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.37 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 4.1% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.27 | 128 | 64 |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.86 | 17.6% | 7.5% | 4.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 523 | 64 |
| Jack Snodgrass L 2024 · 5.20 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.20 | 15.7% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.77 | 118 | 63 |
| Kelvin Marte L 2025 · 4.87 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.87 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 3.1% | .300 | 5.18 | 12.0% | 1.2% | 71 | +0.31 | 3.50 | 360 | 61 |
| Mike Kickham L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.00 | 19.3% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .311 | 5.91 | 18.8% | 8.7% | 61 | +1.91 | 3.00 | 368 | 59 |
| Nico Tellache L 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.65 | 13.4% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 160 | 58 |
| Aríel Miranda L 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.31 | 17.9% | 12.8% | 2.0% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 431 | 58 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.73 | 15.1% | 12.4% | 0.6% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 108 | 58 |
| Marlon Arias L 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.14 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.89 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.25 | 3.89 | 154 | 58 |
| Kwang Hyun Kim L 2028 · 3.68 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.68 | 15.6% | 6.5% | 2.0% | .214 | 4.11 | 17.7% | 9.5% | 107 | +0.43 | 3.68 | 146 | 58 |
| Darin Gorski L 2024 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.39 | 15.0% | 9.8% | 2.4% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 206 | 58 |
| Enrique Lechuga L 2025 · 4.64 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.64 | 10.0% | 10.5% | 1.9% | .354 | 3.90 | 10.5% | 4.4% | 59 | -0.74 | 3.90 | 137 | 57 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 42 | 21.9% | 11.1% | 1.17 | 4.65 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |