Houston Harding — OGILVIE

Houston Harding P Salt Lake Bees

Age 28 LHP 6'1" / 230 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 24 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112120vR 128

ERA5.00

FIP5.00

K%17.6%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%6.9%

ROS IP24

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 24 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	0	10	43	8	1	1	0%	2.5	18.6%	2.3%	16.3%	2.3%	4.50	3.10	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	0	10	43	8	1	1	0%	2.5	18.6%	2.3%	16.3%	2.3%	4.50	3.10	—
2022	24	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	23	0	37	164	43	15	5	0%	1.6	20.2%	10.5%	9.7%	4.7%	4.58	5.30	—
2022	24	A+ RAW	Tri-City Dust Devils	23	0	37	164	43	15	5	0%	1.6	26.2%	9.1%	17.1%	3.0%	4.58	3.74	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	2	60	273	61	37	9	7%	2.2	17.9%	15.0%	2.9%	4.1%	6.00	5.74	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	2	60	273	61	37	9	7%	2.2	17.9%	15.0%	2.9%	4.1%	6.00	5.74	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	2	60	273	61	37	9	7%	2.2	22.3%	13.6%	8.8%	3.3%	6.00	4.87	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	14	80	342	71	36	7	67%	3.8	16.4%	11.2%	5.1%	2.6%	3.14	4.55	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	14	80	342	71	36	7	67%	3.8	16.4%	11.2%	5.1%	2.6%	3.14	4.55	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	14	80	342	71	36	7	67%	3.8	20.8%	10.5%	10.2%	2.0%	3.14	3.81	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	0	20	92	19	10	1	0%	2.5	18.5%	8.4%	10.1%	1.5%	5.03	3.41	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	0	20	92	19	10	1	0%	2.5	18.5%	8.4%	10.1%	1.5%	5.03	3.41	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	0	20	92	19	10	1	0%	2.5	20.7%	10.9%	9.8%	1.1%	5.03	3.35	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	25	2	52	253	29	35	11	8%	2.1	9.0%	12.7%	-3.7%	3.6%	6.97	5.93	—
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	25	2	52	253	29	35	11	8%	2.1	9.0%	12.7%	-3.7%	3.6%	6.97	5.93	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	A+ RAW	LAA	1	1	4	20	2	3	1	100%	4.0	10.0%	15.0%	-5.0%	5.0%	9.00	6.90	—
2026	28	AA RAW	LAA	2	0	4	20	4	2	3	0%	2.0	20.0%	10.0%	10.0%	15.0%	13.50	10.91	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	LAA	22	1	44	213	23	30	7	5%	2.0	10.8%	14.1%	-3.3%	3.3%	6.18	5.78	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	LAA	22	0	23	97	17	11	3	0%	1.0	18.0%	10.9%	7.1%	3.1%	5.01	5.06	-0.1
2027	29	MLB CTX	LAA	8	0	8	34	6	4	1	0%	1.0	18.0%	10.9%	7.1%	3.1%	5.01	5.06	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	8	36	6	4	1	0%	1.1	18.0%	10.9%	7.1%	3.1%	5.01	4.68	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	142	95	24	0%	1.1	18.0%	10.9%	7.1%	3.1%	5.01	4.68	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		108	18	259	1167	186	137	39	17%	2.4	15.9%	11.8%	4.1%	3.4%	4.97	5.09	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		83	14	200	901	143	106	30	17%	2.4	15.9%	11.8%	4.1%	3.4%	4.97	5.09	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Houston Harding (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.00	17.6%	10.8%	3.0%	—	5.06	18.0%	7.1%	23	+0.06	—	—	—
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	77
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	77
Jeremy Horst L 2015 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	18.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.291	3.71	15.1%	2.7%	48	-0.38	3.71	108	75
Matt Whitehouse L 2019 · 4.07 FIP	28	SW	4.07	20.1%	10.9%	2.3%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	353	74
Kyle Hunter L 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SU	4.50	14.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	188	74
Ross Detwiler L 2015 · 5.50 FIP	29	SW	5.50	14.2%	12.2%	3.8%	.356	4.80	14.1%	5.9%	242	-0.70	3.49	512	73
Ashur Tolliver L 2016 · 4.19 FIP	28	SU	4.19	21.3%	9.8%	3.0%	.308	5.03	13.8%	-5.1%	35	+0.84	3.49	134	73
Triston Polley L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	26	SU	4.15	17.8%	8.9%	2.6%	.331	4.53	17.4%	-0.3%	22	+0.38	4.15	151	73
Brendan Nail L 2023 · 4.39 FIP	27	SU	4.39	18.9%	10.5%	2.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	165	72
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	72
Keith Hessler L 2017 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	15.5%	11.8%	3.5%	.324	4.96	19.8%	6.5%	53	-0.22	3.31	228	72
Michael Johnson L 2018 · 5.19 FIP	27	SU	5.19	13.4%	10.0%	3.6%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	256	71
Brian Holmes L 2017 · 5.91 FIP	26	SW	5.91	15.5%	11.7%	4.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	205	71
Kit Scheetz L 2021 · 5.08 FIP	27	SU	5.08	16.2%	13.6%	2.9%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.34	195	70
Aaron Brown L 2019 · 4.04 FIP	27	SU	4.04	22.9%	13.5%	2.1%	.317	4.77	19.4%	6.7%	129	+0.73	4.04	269	70
Will Lamb L 2017 · 5.78 FIP	26	SU	5.78	20.0%	14.0%	4.7%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	178	69
Bryan Harper L 2018 · 4.63 FIP	28	SU	4.63	14.9%	13.9%	1.9%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	133	69
Chad Bell L 2017 · 4.57 FIP	28	SW	4.57	19.4%	8.9%	3.6%	.341	4.38	18.8%	11.4%	57	-0.19	3.39	393	68
Jake Higginbotham L 2023 · 4.17 FIP	27	SU	4.17	16.6%	10.8%	2.0%	.314	4.22	22.6%	15.2%	139	+0.05	3.30	335	68
Hayden Deal L 2023 · 4.01 FIP	28	SW	4.01	15.7%	11.4%	1.4%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	420	68