Mark Manfredi Sr.

P Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 27 LHP 6'4" / 210 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	A+MIL	28	12	76	3.91	3.49	28.6%	13.0%	—	K 22.0% · BB 14.9% · FIP 4.60
2025	25	AAMIL	44	0	60	3.30	2.90	29.8%	14.9%	—	K 24.1% · BB 16.4% · FIP 3.58
2026	26	MIX3 levels	52	0	68	3.82	2.54	30.8%	11.9%	1.7	K 26.6% · BB 11.6% · FIP 2.91
2027PROJ	27	MLBCOL	45	0	47	4.32	4.30	25.1%	13.8%	0.1
2028PROJ80% MLB	28	MLBCOL	40	0	42	4.36	4.38	24.8%	13.5%	0.1
2029PROJ84% MLB	29	MLBCOL	36	0	38	4.47	4.54	24.1%	13.4%	0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo47

K%44

xwOBA vs39

Form3.06 ERA (proj 4.32) · K 21.3% (proj 25.1%) · BB 12.0% (proj 13.8%) · last 90d · 18 IP through Oct 27

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 1.4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsNick Hagadone (age 27) · Aaron Brown (age 27) · Edward Paredes (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 99107vR 115

ERA4.32

FIP4.30

K%25.1%

BB%13.8%

K-BB%11.2%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4794.3

Whiff%

p5125.4%

p4421.3%

xwOBA vs

p390.325

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	24	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	28	12	76	332	95	43	7	43%	2.7	22.0%	14.9%	7.1%	2.7%	3.91	4.60	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	28	12	76	332	95	43	7	43%	2.7	22.0%	14.9%	7.1%	2.7%	3.91	4.60	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	28	12	76	332	95	43	7	43%	2.7	28.6%	13.0%	15.7%	2.1%	3.91	3.49	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	44	0	60	255	76	38	2	0%	1.4	24.1%	16.4%	7.7%	0.8%	3.30	3.58	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	44	0	60	255	76	38	2	0%	1.4	24.1%	16.4%	7.7%	0.8%	3.30	3.58	—
2025	25	AA RAW	Biloxi Shuckers	44	0	60	255	76	38	2	0%	1.4	29.8%	14.9%	14.9%	0.8%	3.30	2.90	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	52	0	68	295	91	35	3	0%	1.3	26.6%	11.6%	15.1%	1.1%	3.82	2.91	+1.3
2026	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	52	0	68	295	91	35	3	0%	1.3	26.6%	11.6%	15.1%	1.1%	3.82	2.91	+1.3
2026	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	52	0	68	295	91	35	3	0%	1.3	30.8%	11.9%	19.0%	1.0%	3.82	2.54	+1.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			14	0	18	75	16	9	1	0%	1.3	21.3%	12.0%	9.3%	1.3%	3.06	3.55	+0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	COL	45	0	47	198	50	27	4	0%	1.0	25.1%	13.8%	11.2%	2.1%	4.32	4.30	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	COL	50	0	53	224	55	30	5	0%	1.1	24.8%	13.5%	11.2%	2.3%	4.36	4.38	+0.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	COL	43	0	45	190	46	26	5	0%	1.0	24.1%	13.4%	10.6%	2.5%	4.47	4.54	+0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	COL	40	0	42	177	44	24	4	0%	1.1	24.8%	13.5%	11.2%	2.3%	4.36	4.38	+0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	COL	36	0	38	160	39	22	4	0%	1.1	24.1%	13.4%	10.6%	2.5%	4.47	4.54	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		90	0	98	413	99	55	9	0%	1.1	23.9%	13.2%	10.7%	2.2%	4.17	3.98	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		185	0	200	845	202	112	18	0%	1.1	23.9%	13.2%	10.7%	2.2%	4.17	3.98	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		124	12	204	882	213	125	14	10%	1.6	24.2%	14.2%	10.0%	1.6%	3.70	3.74	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		121	12	200	863	209	123	14	10%	1.6	24.2%	14.2%	10.0%	1.6%	3.70	3.74	+0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 28 IPFIP 2.76 → 2.98 (+0.23)K% 30.1% → 25.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.08%	—	×0.860	25.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.82%	—	×0.900	12.44%
HR / BF /BF	0.81%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.89%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.76 → 2.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AABiloxi Shuckers · 22 IPFIP 1.53 → 2.39 (+0.86)K% 39.2% → 31.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.18%	—	×0.810	31.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.28%	—	×1.100	10.21%
HR / BF /BF	1.03%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.24%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.53 → 2.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AABiloxi Shuckers · 60 IPFIP 2.90 → 3.58 (+0.68)K% 29.8% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.80%	—	×0.810	24.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.90%	—	×1.100	16.39%
HR / BF /BF	0.78%	÷1.170	×1.200	0.80%

Result: FIP 2.90 → 3.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 76 IPFIP 3.48 → 4.60 (+1.12)K% 28.6% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.61%	—	×0.770	22.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.95%	—	×1.150	14.89%
HR / BF /BF	2.11%	÷0.979	×1.250	2.69%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 3.48 → 4.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mark Manfredi Sr. (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.1%	—	4.45	24.5%	11.0%	98	+0.15	—	—	—
Nick Hagadone L 2013 · 4.75 FIP	27	SU	4.75	22.6%	15.0%	3.0%	.253	3.34	25.9%	19.0%	51	-1.41	2.97	141	82
Aaron Brown L 2019 · 4.04 FIP	27	SU	4.04	22.9%	13.5%	2.1%	.317	4.77	19.4%	6.7%	129	+0.73	4.04	269	80
Edward Paredes L 2016 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	24.1%	13.0%	1.4%	.225	3.55	23.7%	14.0%	86	+0.08	2.36	130	80
C.J. Widger L 2024 · 4.21 FIP	25	SU	4.21	26.0%	16.0%	2.3%	.258	5.75	18.1%	-0.7%	57	+1.54	3.83	105	80
Matt Thornton L 2004 · 4.18 FIP	27	SU	4.18	20.3%	16.2%	1.4%	.304	4.18	21.8%	11.5%	167	-0.00	1.71	663	80
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	80
Jake Rice L 2024 · 3.75 FIP	27	SU	3.75	21.8%	13.8%	1.4%	.273	5.90	16.5%	0.9%	54	+2.15	3.16	199	79
Ryan O'Rourke L 2015 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	27.4%	12.9%	2.6%	.284	3.05	23.4%	16.7%	53	-0.80	3.05	145	78
Ashur Tolliver L 2015 · 3.49 FIP	27	SU	3.49	19.8%	12.8%	0.8%	.312	4.58	17.8%	3.7%	76	+1.09	3.49	134	78
Mitchell Tyranski L 2024 · 4.90 FIP	26	SU	4.90	21.0%	12.3%	3.7%	.234	3.46	20.5%	4.0%	57	-1.44	3.46	145	77
Justin King L 2024 · 3.26 FIP	26	SU	3.26	29.5%	11.8%	2.1%	.346	4.16	22.4%	3.6%	65	+0.90	3.26	133	77
Jackson Lancaster L 2024 · 4.48 FIP	25	SU	4.48	24.0%	11.1%	3.6%	.355	5.36	18.3%	4.9%	93	+0.88	4.15	142	76
Tristan Garnett L 2024 · 3.75 FIP	26	SU	3.75	24.4%	15.9%	1.3%	.278	4.27	21.5%	8.7%	63	+0.52	2.50	193	76
Chris Nunn L 2018 · 3.30 FIP	27	SU	3.30	23.0%	10.9%	1.4%	.367	4.35	23.9%	9.2%	95	+1.05	3.30	180	76
John Bale L 2001 · 4.41 FIP	27	SU	4.41	18.6%	15.0%	1.8%	.219	4.12	19.0%	13.9%	46	-0.29	2.49	168	75
Keylan Killgore L 2024 · 3.73 FIP	27	SU	3.73	24.6%	14.1%	1.7%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	161	75
Jerry Vasto L 2018 · 3.52 FIP	26	SU	3.52	24.0%	11.5%	1.8%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	206	75
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	75
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	75
Brendan Cellucci L 2024 · 3.98 FIP	26	SU	3.98	26.3%	16.6%	1.8%	.288	4.38	21.7%	9.6%	79	+0.40	3.98	288	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	61	24.4%	13.5%	0.86	4.25
Chad Fox ('09)	1.1	57	25.8%	13.2%	0.87	3.79
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30
Jose Veras ('14)	2.1	60	24.0%	12.1%	0.96	3.91
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Dennis Higgins ('66-'72, 1 WAR*)	2.1	82	24.5%*	12.2%*	0.94*	4.34*