Mark Manfredi Sr.
P
Biloxi Shuckers
+0.3
WAR
Age 26
LHP
6'4" / 210 lbs
AA
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.49
FIP4.49
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.5%
BB%12.8%
K-BB%10.6%
IP65
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
STUF5555
CTRL3030
CMD5050
K†6060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 28 | 12 | 76 | 332 | 95 | 43 | 7 | 22.0% | 14.9% | 2.7% | 3.91 | 4.61 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 44 | 0 | 60 | 255 | 76 | 38 | 2 | 24.1% | 16.4% | 0.8% | 3.30 | 3.60 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 5 | 0 | 6 | 21 | 13 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | MIL | 12 | 12 | 65 | 276 | 66 | 38 | 7 | 24.1% | 13.8% | 2.5% | 4.57 | 4.57 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 71 | 297 | 79 | 41 | 7 | 26.7% | 13.9% | 2.3% | 4.19 | 4.19 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 66 | 37 | 7 | 24.0% | 13.4% | 2.6% | 4.55 | 4.55 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 12 | 12 | 64 | 269 | 64 | 35 | 7 | 23.9% | 13.1% | 2.6% | 4.55 | 4.56 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 11 | 11 | 62 | 263 | 63 | 34 | 7 | 23.8% | 13.0% | 2.7% | 4.57 | 4.60 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 11 | 11 | 60 | 255 | 60 | 33 | 7 | 23.5% | 13.0% | 2.8% | 4.61 | 4.65 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 58 | — | 58 | 247 | 57 | 32 | 7 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 2.8% | 4.68 | 4.72 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 56 | — | 56 | 237 | 55 | 32 | 7 | 23.0% | 13.3% | 2.9% | 4.76 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | MIL | 54 | — | 54 | 226 | 51 | 31 | 7 | 22.7% | 13.5% | 3.0% | 4.85 | 4.91 | +0.0 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | MIL | 51 | — | 51 | 215 | 48 | 29 | 7 | 22.4% | 13.7% | 3.1% | 4.95 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | MIL | 48 | — | 48 | 203 | 45 | 28 | 6 | 22.0% | 13.9% | 3.2% | 5.07 | 5.14 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | MIL | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 41 | 27 | 6 | 21.6% | 14.2% | 3.3% | 5.19 | 5.28 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 77 | 12 | 142 | 608 | 148 | 94 | 11 | 24.3% | 15.5% | 1.8% | 3.49 | 4.02 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 108 | 17 | 200 | 856 | 208 | 132 | 15 | 24.3% | 15.5% | 1.8% | 3.49 | 4.02 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Mark Manfredi Sr. (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.57 | 24.1% | 13.8% | 2.5% | — | 4.57 | 23.9% | 10.7% | 191 | -0.00 | — | — | — |
| Tony Cingrani L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.62 | 25.8% | 12.9% | 1.9% | .305 | 3.93 | 25.4% | 15.7% | 128 | +0.31 | 1.66 | 186 | 92 |
| Colton Johnson L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 87 |
| Andy Oliver L 2027 · 4.15 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.15 | 23.4% | 16.9% | 1.6% | .283 | 4.60 | 19.2% | 8.6% | 108 | +0.45 | 3.97 | 165 | 86 |
| Brian Flynn L 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.82 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 2.0% | .258 | 4.38 | 16.6% | 8.2% | 198 | +0.56 | 3.82 | 277 | 85 |
| Matt Purke L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.28 | 19.1% | 13.9% | 1.9% | .284 | 3.54 | 21.4% | 8.8% | 112 | -0.74 | 3.00 | 226 | 83 |
| Andrew Magno L 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.50 | 22.1% | 11.9% | 3.2% | .341 | 3.23 | 22.5% | 10.1% | 66 | -1.27 | 3.23 | 275 | 83 |
| Jake Diekman L 2028 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.40 | 26.5% | 11.9% | 1.9% | .310 | 3.25 | 27.0% | 15.3% | 106 | -0.15 | 2.32 | 455 | 83 |
| Brendan Cellucci L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.98 | 26.3% | 16.6% | 1.8% | .288 | 4.87 | 21.0% | 3.5% | 27 | +0.89 | 3.98 | 236 | 82 |
| Juan Grullon L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.67 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 134 | 82 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.48 | 19.8% | 12.8% | 0.8% | .312 | 4.58 | 17.8% | 3.7% | 76 | +1.10 | 3.48 | 134 | 82 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2028 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.61 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.36 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.25 | 3.36 | 153 | 81 |
| Brad Kuntz L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.09 | 20.9% | 11.7% | 2.3% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.35 | 197 | 81 |
| Mason Melotakis L 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.59 | 21.9% | 10.9% | 1.8% | .264 | 5.75 | 12.0% | 0.6% | 30 | +2.16 | 3.29 | 142 | 81 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.49 | 26.0% | 13.1% | 1.7% | .260 | 3.65 | 27.7% | 17.1% | 129 | +0.16 | 3.47 | 160 | 81 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.26 | 21.7% | 9.5% | 3.2% | .272 | 5.26 | 13.4% | 3.4% | 67 | +1.00 | 3.88 | 256 | 81 |
| Sean Mellen L 2024 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 101 | 80 |
| Brendan Nail L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.27 | 22.6% | 12.5% | 2.7% | .311 | 4.47 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 53 | +0.20 | 3.49 | 165 | 80 |
| Conor Lillis-White L 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.49 | 26.8% | 11.1% | 2.3% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.80 | 182 | 80 |
| Hunter Cervenka L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 23.1% | 12.6% | 1.7% | .246 | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.4% | 121 | +0.33 | 3.04 | 194 | 80 |
| Tom Windle L 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.54 | 19.0% | 11.8% | 2.8% | .269 | 4.35 | 17.2% | 1.8% | 74 | -0.19 | 3.66 | 330 | 80 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.