Mark Manfredi Sr.
P
Biloxi Shuckers
Age 26
LHP
6'4" / 210 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION39 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109119vR 128
ERA4.81
FIP4.81
K%24.1%
BB%16.0%
K-BB%8.2%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 109 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 28 | 12 | 76 | 332 | 95 | 43 | 7 | 43% | 2.7 | 22.0% | 14.9% | 7.1% | 2.7% | 3.91 | 4.64 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 28 | 12 | 76 | 332 | 95 | 43 | 7 | 43% | 2.7 | 28.6% | 13.0% | 15.7% | 2.1% | 3.91 | 3.49 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 44 | 0 | 60 | 255 | 76 | 38 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 24.1% | 16.4% | 7.7% | 0.7% | 3.30 | 3.52 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 44 | 0 | 60 | 255 | 76 | 38 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 29.8% | 14.9% | 14.9% | 0.8% | 3.30 | 2.90 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 29 | 0 | 39 | 168 | 61 | 15 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 30.4% | 9.6% | 20.7% | 0.7% | 3.66 | 2.15 | +1.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | MIL | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 71 | 47 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 16.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | 4.81 | 4.81 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | MIL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 16.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | 4.81 | 4.81 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 109 | 464 | 132 | 62 | 8 | — | — | 28.6% | 13.4% | 15.1% | 1.8% | 4.40 | 3.85 | +2.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 24.1% | 16.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | 4.81 | 4.43 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 70 | 45 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 15.3% | 8.7% | 2.6% | 4.79 | 4.80 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 67 | 42 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 15.0% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 4.81 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 64 | 40 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 15.0% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 4.89 | 4.95 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 26 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 15.3% | 8.7% | 2.6% | 4.79 | 4.80 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 40 | 25 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 15.0% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 4.81 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 45 | 28 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 15.0% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 4.89 | 4.95 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 107 | 0 | 112 | 474 | 113 | 72 | 13 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.8% | 15.1% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 4.84 | 4.50 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 201 | 128 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.8% | 15.1% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 4.84 | 4.50 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 101 | 12 | 175 | 755 | 186 | 107 | 12 | 12% | 1.7 | 24.6% | 14.2% | 10.4% | 1.6% | 3.64 | 3.71 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 115 | 14 | 200 | 861 | 212 | 123 | 14 | 12% | 1.7 | 24.6% | 14.2% | 10.4% | 1.6% | 3.64 | 3.71 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Mark Manfredi Sr. (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.81 | 24.1% | 16.0% | 2.5% | — | 4.86 | 23.9% | 8.7% | 200 | +0.05 | — | — | — |
| Andy Oliver L 2027 · 4.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.08 | 23.4% | 16.9% | 1.5% | .283 | 5.02 | 19.2% | 8.6% | 108 | +0.94 | 4.08 | 165 | 89 |
| Tony Cingrani L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.61 | 25.8% | 12.9% | 1.9% | .305 | 3.97 | 25.4% | 15.7% | 128 | +0.36 | 1.79 | 186 | 84 |
| Matt Purke L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.30 | 19.1% | 13.9% | 1.9% | .284 | 3.48 | 21.4% | 8.8% | 112 | -0.82 | 2.92 | 226 | 83 |
| Brendan Cellucci L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.96 | 26.3% | 16.6% | 1.8% | .288 | 4.80 | 21.7% | 6.7% | 56 | +0.84 | 3.96 | 265 | 83 |
| Trey Jeans L 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.12 | 22.3% | 16.5% | 3.3% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.74 | 111 | 81 |
| Jake Rice L 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.13 | 23.4% | 18.1% | 1.3% | .305 | 5.11 | 19.2% | 3.1% | 103 | +0.98 | 3.29 | 199 | 81 |
| Andy Fisher L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.21 | 21.5% | 15.4% | 1.8% | .333 | 4.23 | 17.2% | 6.3% | 52 | +0.02 | 3.14 | 167 | 81 |
| Colton Johnson L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.49 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.45 | 4.04 | 106 | 80 |
| Erik Rivera L 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.69 | 25.3% | 15.4% | 3.2% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.69 | 122 | 80 |
| Dale Stanavich L 2026 · 5.74 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.74 | 21.8% | 18.2% | 4.0% | .254 | 5.12 | 24.8% | 13.6% | 23 | -0.62 | 3.14 | 167 | 80 |
| Brian Flynn L 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.78 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 2.0% | .258 | 4.41 | 16.6% | 8.2% | 198 | +0.63 | 3.78 | 277 | 79 |
| Trey Cumbie L 2026 · 5.07 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.07 | 23.3% | 16.1% | 3.5% | .215 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 152 | 79 |
| Graeme Stinson L 2025 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.75 | 19.5% | 15.6% | 2.4% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 146 | 79 |
| Zac Curtis L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.29 | 24.3% | 15.6% | 2.3% | .245 | 7.10 | 22.4% | 6.3% | 30 | +2.81 | 2.61 | 236 | 78 |
| Brian Marconi L 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.96 | 20.3% | 18.2% | 2.3% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.61 | 101 | 78 |
| Tristan Garnett L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.68 | 24.4% | 15.9% | 1.1% | .278 | 3.56 | 23.3% | 12.5% | 55 | -0.12 | 2.50 | 185 | 78 |
| Brendan Nail L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.26 | 22.6% | 12.5% | 2.7% | .311 | 4.43 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 53 | +0.17 | 3.67 | 165 | 78 |
| Adam McCreery L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.23 | 20.7% | 14.5% | 1.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 207 | 78 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.68 | 19.4% | 15.5% | 2.3% | .289 | 3.65 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 43 | -1.03 | 3.65 | 308 | 78 |
| Riley Martin L 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.90 | 28.8% | 16.6% | 2.1% | .336 | 3.35 | 27.0% | 12.9% | 64 | -0.55 | 3.35 | 266 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 67 | 23.9% | 15.3% | 1.02 | 4.82 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |