Brendan Cellucci

P Buffalo Bisons

Age 29 LHP 6'4" / 211 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX2 levels	35	65	4.18	3.36	31.1%	16.7%	—	K 26.3% · BB 16.6% · FIP 3.98
2025	27	MIX2 levels	18	30	7.28	4.38	24.0%	15.8%	—	K 20.6% · BB 15.0% · FIP 4.60
2026	28	MIX3 levels	52	62	2.63	3.46	28.2%	11.3%	0.8	K 22.3% · BB 10.6% · FIP 4.27
2027PROJ	29	MLBTOR	20	21	4.72	4.72	22.4%	11.9%	-0.0
2028PROJ76% MLB	30	MLBTOR	18	19	4.78	4.85	22.1%	12.0%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.8 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.5, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsRaul Valdes (age 32) · Juan Pablo Perez (age 28) · Clay Rapada (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107115vR 123

ERA4.72

FIP4.72

K%22.4%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%10.4%

Proj IP31

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 31 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	36	0	37	173	59	28	3	0%	1.0	26.3%	18.6%	7.6%	2.4%	5.30	4.57	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	Greenville Drive	36	0	37	173	59	28	3	0%	1.0	34.1%	16.2%	17.9%	1.7%	5.30	3.23	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	10	64	290	85	44	6	22%	1.4	22.4%	17.9%	4.4%	2.7%	4.34	4.95	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	10	64	290	85	44	6	22%	1.4	29.3%	15.2%	14.1%	2.1%	4.34	3.72	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	37	0	51	241	63	32	7	0%	1.4	21.2%	14.6%	6.6%	3.3%	5.29	4.99	—
2023	25	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	37	0	51	241	63	32	7	0%	1.4	26.1%	13.3%	12.9%	2.9%	5.29	4.30	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	65	293	91	49	4	0%	1.8	26.3%	16.6%	9.7%	1.8%	4.18	3.98	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	65	293	91	49	4	0%	1.8	26.3%	16.6%	9.7%	1.8%	4.18	3.98	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	65	293	91	49	4	0%	1.8	31.1%	16.7%	14.3%	1.4%	4.18	3.36	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	30	146	35	23	3	0%	1.6	20.6%	15.0%	5.6%	2.4%	7.28	4.60	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	30	146	35	23	3	0%	1.6	20.6%	15.0%	5.6%	2.4%	7.28	4.60	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	0	30	146	35	23	3	0%	1.6	24.0%	15.8%	8.2%	2.1%	7.28	4.38	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	52	0	62	248	70	28	6	0%	1.2	22.3%	10.6%	11.7%	3.1%	2.63	4.27	+0.2
2026	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	52	0	62	248	70	28	6	0%	1.2	22.3%	10.6%	11.7%	3.1%	2.63	4.27	+0.2
2026	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	52	0	62	248	70	28	6	0%	1.2	28.2%	11.3%	16.9%	2.4%	2.63	3.46	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			6	0	9	30	11	2	0	0%	1.4	36.7%	6.7%	30.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.25	+0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	TOR	20	0	21	89	20	11	3	0%	1.1	22.4%	11.9%	10.4%	2.9%	4.72	4.72	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	TOR	23	0	24	102	23	12	3	0%	1.1	22.1%	12.0%	10.2%	3.1%	4.78	4.85	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	TOR	18	0	19	80	18	10	3	0%	1.1	22.1%	12.0%	10.2%	3.1%	4.78	4.85	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		24	0	27	108	28	11	2	0%	1.1	26.2%	10.5%	15.7%	2.3%	3.26	3.47	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		174	0	200	796	206	81	15	0%	1.2	26.2%	10.5%	15.7%	2.3%	3.26	3.47	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		223	10	309	1391	324	216	37	4%	1.4	23.3%	15.5%	7.7%	2.6%	4.52	4.55	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		144	6	200	901	210	140	24	4%	1.4	23.3%	15.5%	7.7%	2.6%	4.52	4.55	+1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAABuffalo Bisons · 51 IPFIP 3.96 → 4.27 (+0.31)K% 25.9% → 22.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.94%	—	×0.860	22.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.79%	—	×0.900	10.61%
HR / BF /BF	2.83%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.11%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.96 → 4.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 27 IPFIP 4.39 → 4.60 (+0.21)K% 23.9% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.91%	—	×0.860	20.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.67%	—	×0.900	15.00%
HR / BF /BF	2.17%	÷0.984	×1.100	2.43%

Result: FIP 4.39 → 4.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 59 IPFIP 3.12 → 3.98 (+0.86)K% 32.4% → 26.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.43%	—	×0.810	26.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.06%	—	×1.100	16.56%
HR / BF /BF	1.54%	÷1.018	×1.200	1.82%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).

Result: FIP 3.12 → 3.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 6 IPFIP 5.09 → 4.96 (−0.13)K% 20.6% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.59%	—	×0.860	17.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	29.41%	—	×0.900	26.47%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.996	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 5.09 → 4.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 51 IPFIP 4.17 → 4.99 (+0.82)K% 26.1% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.14%	—	×0.810	21.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.28%	—	×1.100	14.61%
HR / BF /BF	2.90%	÷1.048	×1.200	3.33%

Result: FIP 4.17 → 4.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Greenville Drive · 62 IPFIP 3.79 → 4.95 (+1.16)K% 29.1% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.08%	—	×0.770	22.39%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.60%	—	×1.150	17.94%
HR / BF /BF	2.13%	÷0.996	×1.250	2.67%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 3.79 → 4.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Greenville Drive · 37 IPFIP 3.22 → 4.57 (+1.35)K% 34.1% → 26.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.10%	—	×0.770	26.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.18%	—	×1.150	18.61%
HR / BF /BF	1.73%	÷0.891	×1.250	2.43%

Result: FIP 3.22 → 4.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brendan Cellucci (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.72	22.4%	11.9%	2.9%	—	4.85	22.1%	10.2%	24	+0.13	—	—	—
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	81
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	79
Clay Rapada L 2011 · 4.34 FIP	30	SU	4.34	26.1%	10.1%	3.9%	.268	3.00	24.5%	14.2%	38	-1.34	3.00	120	79
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	78
Jose Meraz L 2017 · 4.34 FIP	29	SU	4.34	16.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.282	3.80	10.5%	-2.0%	30	-0.54	3.78	110	78
Nick Hagadone L 2015 · 3.65 FIP	29	SU	3.65	22.6%	8.9%	2.4%	.329	3.74	22.6%	13.3%	33	+0.09	2.97	141	77
Darin Downs L 2014 · 3.78 FIP	29	SU	3.78	18.2%	11.5%	1.4%	.255	4.06	12.9%	8.7%	16	+0.28	2.83	107	77
Keith Hessler L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	29	SU	4.96	19.8%	13.3%	3.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	228	76
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	75
Josh Smoker L 2018 · 3.66 FIP	29	SU	3.66	22.1%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	6.58	14.2%	3.4%	14	+2.92	2.71	230	75
Stephen Randolph L 2003 · 4.83 FIP	29	SU	4.83	18.5%	14.8%	2.6%	.247	5.69	15.8%	-3.0%	82	+0.86	4.83	155	75
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	75
Jeff Ibarra L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	18.1%	7.0%	2.1%	.342	2.85	20.6%	17.2%	29	-0.79	2.85	101	75
Sammy Solís L 2018 · 4.39 FIP	29	SU	4.39	24.9%	9.6%	4.0%	.330	4.05	26.2%	17.3%	23	-0.34	2.51	190	74
Colt Hynes L 2013 · 4.76 FIP	28	SU	4.76	15.5%	8.3%	3.5%	.361	3.49	19.3%	12.8%	96	-1.27	3.42	169	74
Mike Zagurski L 2012 · 4.48 FIP	29	SU	4.48	20.9%	11.7%	3.0%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	73
Josh Edgin L 2016 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	22.1%	13.2%	1.3%	.359	3.81	23.2%	13.6%	80	+0.17	2.62	195	72
Jack Taschner L 2007 · 3.69 FIP	29	SU	3.69	23.0%	12.2%	1.8%	.286	4.41	16.2%	5.2%	97	+0.72	3.14	189	70
Sam Moll L 2021 · 4.62 FIP	29	SU	4.62	26.5%	13.5%	3.8%	.310	2.95	25.1%	16.8%	143	-1.67	2.38	507	70
Dan Runzler L 2015 · 3.78 FIP	30	SU	3.78	19.0%	13.1%	1.2%	.383	4.07	16.5%	4.0%	63	+0.29	2.84	187	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	32	23.9%	11.7%	1.04	4.10
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. ('16)	1.2	58	24.6%	11.1%	0.93	4.35
Dave Geisel ('78-'85, 2 WAR*)	1.0	42	23.5%*	10.6%*	0.84*	4.12*
Ray Searage ('81-'90, 4 WAR*)	1.4	41	21.0%*	10.8%*	0.84*	3.70*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*