Sam Moll — OGILVIE

Sam Moll P Cincinnati Reds

Age 34 LHP 5'9" / 190 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION56 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 93101vR 109

ERA3.68

FIP3.89

K%22.7%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%12.7%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4040

CMD5050

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2392.6

Whiff%

p3122.6%

p4721.8%

xwOBA vs

p390.324

SL+1.8 (36%)

CH (16%)

FB (48%)

SI (36%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	68	264	74	16	7	0%	1.8	21.8%	6.9%	14.9%	4.0%	2.63	4.33	—
2015	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	68	264	74	16	7	0%	1.8	28.0%	6.1%	22.0%	2.7%	2.63	2.97	—
2016	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	49	215	44	18	5	0%	1.1	16.4%	9.0%	7.4%	2.2%	4.74	4.06	—
2016	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	49	215	44	18	5	0%	1.1	20.5%	8.4%	12.1%	2.3%	4.74	3.73	—
2017	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	61	0	61	278	54	22	6	0%	1.0	17.0%	8.2%	8.8%	2.1%	4.43	3.85	+0.5
2017	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	61	0	61	278	54	22	6	0%	1.0	19.4%	7.9%	11.5%	2.2%	4.43	3.69	+0.6
2018	26	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	15	0	19	88	19	5	1	0%	1.2	19.0%	6.0%	13.0%	1.2%	5.30	2.89	—
2018	26	AAA RAW	Buffalo Bisons	15	0	19	88	19	5	1	0%	1.2	21.6%	5.7%	15.9%	1.1%	5.30	2.56	—
2019	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	49	213	54	20	1	0%	1.2	20.2%	11.1%	9.1%	0.0%	2.39	2.80	—
2019	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	49	213	54	20	1	0%	1.2	25.4%	9.4%	16.0%	0.5%	2.39	2.39	—
2021	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	46	200	55	25	6	0%	1.1	26.5%	13.5%	13.1%	3.7%	4.34	4.62	-0.0
2021	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	46	200	55	25	6	0%	1.1	27.5%	12.5%	15.0%	3.0%	4.34	4.04	+0.3
2022	30	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	53	0	43	187	46	16	5	0%	0.8	24.6%	8.6%	16.0%	2.9%	2.91	3.72	+0.4
2022	30	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	53	0	43	187	46	16	5	0%	0.8	24.6%	8.6%	16.0%	2.7%	2.91	3.58	+0.5
2023	31	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	70	1	62	268	68	22	2	1%	0.9	25.4%	8.2%	17.2%	0.7%	3.03	2.38	+1.6
2023	31	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	70	1	62	268	68	22	2	1%	0.9	25.4%	8.2%	17.2%	0.7%	3.03	2.38	+1.6
2023	31	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	70	1	62	268	68	22	2	1%	0.9	25.4%	8.2%	17.2%	0.7%	3.03	2.39	+1.6
2024	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	0	46	192	47	15	4	0%	0.8	25.0%	7.9%	17.1%	1.8%	3.91	2.99	+0.9
2024	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	0	46	192	47	15	4	0%	0.8	25.0%	7.9%	17.1%	1.8%	3.91	2.99	+0.9
2024	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	57	0	46	192	47	15	4	0%	0.8	24.5%	7.8%	16.7%	2.1%	3.91	3.17	+0.8
2025	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	45	194	49	20	6	0%	0.9	22.9%	9.8%	13.1%	3.2%	5.56	4.15	+0.2
2025	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	45	194	49	20	6	0%	0.9	22.9%	9.8%	13.1%	3.2%	5.56	4.15	+0.2
2025	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	0	45	194	49	20	6	0%	0.9	25.3%	10.3%	14.9%	3.1%	5.56	3.98	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			278	1	235	1024	245	96	22	0%	0.8	23.9%	9.4%	14.6%	2.1%	3.98	3.46	+3.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	34	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	65	0	56	257	56	28	5	0%	0.9	21.8%	10.9%	10.9%	1.8%	4.79	3.63	+0.6
YTD	34	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	65	0	56	257	56	28	5	0%	0.9	21.8%	10.9%	10.9%	1.8%	4.79	3.63	+0.6
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	34	MLB RAW	CIN	65	0	56	257	56	28	5	0%	0.9	21.8%	10.9%	10.9%	1.9%	4.79	3.71	+0.6
SO FAR	34	MLB RAW	CIN	65	0	56	257	56	28	5	0%	0.9	21.8%	10.9%	10.9%	1.9%	4.79	3.71	+0.6
ROS	34	MLB MLE	CIN	5	0	5	20	5	2	1	0%	1.0	22.7%	10.0%	12.7%	2.6%	3.68	3.89	+0.0
ROS	34	MLB CTX	CIN	5	0	5	21	5	2	1	0%	1.0	22.7%	10.0%	12.7%	2.6%	3.68	3.89	+0.0
2026 TOT	34	MLB MLE	CIN	—	—	61	277	61	30	6	—	—	21.9%	10.8%	11.0%	2.0%	4.71	3.65	+0.7
FULL	34	MLB A+C	CIN	—	—	61	258	61	30	6	—	—	23.5%	11.6%	11.8%	2.1%	4.71	3.77	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	35	MLB MLE	CIN	45	0	48	201	44	21	6	0%	1.1	21.9%	10.6%	11.3%	2.8%	4.28	4.50	+0.0
2028	36	MLB MLE	CIN	40	0	42	178	37	20	6	0%	1.1	20.9%	11.2%	9.7%	3.2%	4.63	4.87	-0.2
2027	35	MLB CTX	CIN	43	0	45	190	42	20	5	0%	1.0	21.9%	10.6%	11.3%	2.8%	4.28	4.50	+0.0
2028	36	MLB CTX	CIN	34	0	36	152	32	17	5	0%	1.1	20.9%	11.2%	9.7%	3.2%	4.63	4.87	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		360	1	321	1389	324	136	33	0%	0.9	23.3%	9.8%	13.5%	2.4%	4.09	3.66	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		224	1	200	864	202	85	21	0%	0.9	23.3%	9.8%	13.5%	2.4%	4.09	3.66	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		536	1	545	2356	516	217	51	0%	1.0	21.9%	9.2%	12.7%	2.2%	3.88	3.61	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		197	0	200	864	189	79	19	0%	1.0	21.9%	9.2%	12.7%	2.2%	3.88	3.61	+1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sam Moll (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.15	23.9%	9.4%	2.7%	—	4.67	21.5%	10.6%	90	+0.52	—	—	—
Jerry Blevins L 2018 · 4.43 FIP	34	SU	4.43	21.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.250	4.09	26.2%	16.3%	32	-0.34	2.71	166	79
Mike Dunn L 2019 · 5.02 FIP	34	SU	5.02	20.0%	8.0%	4.7%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.71	181	78
Boone Logan L 2018 · 5.29 FIP	33	SU	5.29	24.1%	12.1%	4.9%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	2.58	113	76
Sean Doolittle L 2021 · 4.00 FIP	34	SU	4.00	23.8%	9.0%	3.2%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	1.39	259	76
Tony Sipp L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	34	SU	4.92	23.6%	8.5%	5.0%	.269	2.59	24.9%	15.9%	60	-2.33	2.22	195	75
Oliver Pérez L 2016 · 3.36 FIP	34	SU	3.36	25.3%	9.3%	2.2%	.296	2.54	29.1%	23.7%	120	-0.82	1.58	219	74
Ryan Buchter L 2021 · 5.24 FIP	34	SU	5.24	22.9%	13.2%	4.4%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	2.37	296	74
Neal Cotts L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	35	SU	4.66	21.6%	7.4%	4.4%	.257	3.77	21.9%	14.5%	93	-0.89	3.21	156	71
Manny Parra L 2018 · 3.33 FIP	35	SU	3.33	18.4%	10.3%	0.9%	.351	2.43	17.3%	11.0%	27	-0.90	2.43	114	71
Brian Duensing L 2017 · 3.26 FIP	34	SU	3.26	23.7%	6.6%	2.4%	.301	5.80	11.7%	-0.7%	51	+2.54	2.57	198	70
Heriberto Ruelas L 2016 · 3.75 FIP	34	SU	3.75	15.0%	8.9%	1.4%	.310	3.42	17.2%	10.5%	49	-0.33	2.95	117	70
Dan Runzler L 2019 · 4.84 FIP	34	SU	4.84	16.0%	13.0%	2.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	127	69
Adam Loewen L 2017 · 4.22 FIP	33	SU	4.22	23.4%	17.4%	1.6%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	2.96	176	69
Brandon Mann L 2018 · 3.59 FIP	34	SU	3.59	17.8%	11.4%	1.0%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	190	67
Ross Detwiler L 2020 · 3.49 FIP	34	SU	3.49	18.5%	4.9%	2.4%	.283	4.16	25.7%	18.0%	79	+0.67	3.49	512	66
Craig Breslow L 2015 · 4.94 FIP	34	SU	4.94	16.4%	6.4%	4.4%	.279	4.42	16.2%	6.5%	94	-0.52	4.22	159	65
Tony Watson L 2019 · 4.52 FIP	34	SU	4.52	17.7%	4.8%	4.2%	.276	3.67	19.8%	13.1%	75	-0.85	2.21	405	65
Andrew Miller L 2019 · 4.74 FIP	34	SU	4.74	29.7%	11.0%	5.0%	.264	3.41	25.6%	16.5%	49	-1.33	1.34	336	63
James Jones L 2023 · 4.71 FIP	34	SU	4.71	13.2%	11.5%	2.3%	.246	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	127	63
Alejandro Soto L 2019 · 4.03 FIP	33	SW	4.03	17.1%	6.9%	2.7%	.376	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	280	62

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	48	22.4%	10.4%	1.11	4.26
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Cory Gearrin ('19)	1.1	57	21.5%	9.8%	0.79	3.42