Sam Moll
P
Cincinnati Reds
Age 34
LHP
5'9" / 190 lbs
MLB
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION39 act + 14 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8897vR 107
ERA3.52
FIP3.75
K%24.6%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%14.5%
ROS IP14
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p2192.4
Whiff%
p4224.2%
K%
p6625.1%
xwOBA vs
p460.316
SL+1.8 (36%)
CH (16%)
FB (48%)
SI (38%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 68 | 264 | 74 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 1.8 | 21.8% | 6.9% | 14.9% | 5.1% | 2.63 | 4.91 | — |
| 2015 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 68 | 264 | 74 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 1.8 | 28.0% | 6.1% | 22.0% | 2.7% | 2.63 | 2.97 | — |
| 2016 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 49 | 215 | 44 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.4% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 1.9% | 4.74 | 3.89 | — |
| 2016 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 49 | 215 | 44 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.5% | 8.4% | 12.1% | 2.3% | 4.74 | 3.73 | — |
| 2017 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 61 | 0 | 61 | 278 | 54 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.0% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 2.5% | 4.43 | 4.05 | +0.4 |
| 2017 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 61 | 0 | 61 | 278 | 54 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 11.5% | 2.2% | 4.43 | 3.69 | +0.6 |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 15 | 0 | 19 | 88 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.0% | 6.0% | 13.0% | 1.1% | 5.30 | 2.84 | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 15 | 0 | 19 | 88 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.6% | 5.7% | 15.9% | 1.1% | 5.30 | 2.56 | — |
| 2019 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 49 | 213 | 54 | 20 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.2% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 0.0% | 2.39 | 2.80 | — |
| 2019 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 49 | 213 | 54 | 20 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.4% | 9.4% | 16.0% | 0.5% | 2.39 | 2.39 | — |
| 2021 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 46 | 200 | 55 | 25 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.5% | 13.5% | 13.1% | 4.0% | 4.34 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 46 | 200 | 55 | 25 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.5% | 12.5% | 15.0% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.04 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 30 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 53 | 0 | 43 | 187 | 46 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 0.8 | 24.6% | 8.6% | 16.0% | 2.8% | 2.91 | 3.64 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 30 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 53 | 0 | 43 | 187 | 46 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 0.8 | 24.6% | 8.6% | 16.0% | 2.7% | 2.91 | 3.58 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 31 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 70 | 1 | 62 | 268 | 68 | 22 | 2 | 1% | 0.9 | 25.4% | 8.2% | 17.2% | 0.7% | 3.03 | 2.39 | +1.6 |
| 2023 | 31 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 70 | 1 | 62 | 268 | 68 | 22 | 2 | 1% | 0.9 | 25.4% | 8.2% | 17.2% | 0.7% | 3.03 | 2.39 | +1.6 |
| 2024 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 0 | 46 | 192 | 47 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 0.8 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 17.1% | 1.9% | 3.91 | 3.02 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 0 | 46 | 192 | 47 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 0.8 | 24.5% | 7.8% | 16.7% | 2.1% | 3.91 | 3.17 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 0 | 45 | 194 | 49 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 23.6% | 10.6% | 13.0% | 3.4% | 5.56 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 0 | 45 | 194 | 49 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 25.3% | 10.3% | 14.9% | 3.1% | 5.56 | 3.98 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 44 | 0 | 39 | 171 | 43 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 25.1% | 10.5% | 14.6% | 2.3% | 4.19 | 3.59 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 34 | MLB | CIN | 14 | 0 | 14 | 61 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.6% | 10.0% | 14.5% | 2.7% | 3.52 | 3.75 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 34 | MLB | CIN | 13 | 0 | 14 | 59 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 10.0% | 14.5% | 2.7% | 3.52 | 3.75 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 34 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 53 | 232 | 58 | 24 | 6 | — | — | 25.0% | 10.4% | 14.6% | 2.4% | 4.01 | 3.64 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 34 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 53 | 224 | 58 | 24 | 6 | — | — | 25.9% | 10.8% | 15.1% | 2.5% | 4.01 | 3.65 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | CIN | 45 | 0 | 48 | 201 | 47 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 10.6% | 12.9% | 3.0% | 4.25 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | CIN | 40 | 0 | 42 | 178 | 40 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 3.4% | 4.61 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 37 | MLB | CIN | 35 | 0 | 37 | 155 | 33 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 3.8% | 4.99 | 5.25 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | CIN | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 45 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 10.6% | 12.9% | 3.0% | 4.25 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | CIN | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 34 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 3.4% | 4.61 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 37 | MLB | CIN | 27 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 25 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 3.8% | 4.99 | 5.25 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 375 | 1 | 342 | 1463 | 352 | 144 | 38 | 0% | 0.9 | 24.1% | 9.8% | 14.2% | 2.6% | 4.04 | 3.74 | +6.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 220 | 1 | 200 | 856 | 206 | 84 | 22 | 0% | 0.9 | 24.1% | 9.8% | 14.2% | 2.6% | 4.04 | 3.74 | +3.9 | ||
| Career | — | 515 | 1 | 528 | 2270 | 504 | 208 | 54 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 13.0% | 2.4% | 3.80 | 3.70 | +10.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 195 | 0 | 200 | 860 | 191 | 79 | 21 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 13.0% | 2.4% | 3.80 | 3.70 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sam Moll (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.20 | 24.1% | 9.8% | 2.8% | — | 4.83 | 22.6% | 11.4% | 126 | +0.63 | — | — | — |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.67 | 20.0% | 8.0% | 4.1% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 181 | 77 |
| Tony Sipp L 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.69 | 23.6% | 8.5% | 4.6% | .269 | 2.57 | 24.9% | 15.9% | 60 | -2.12 | 2.18 | 195 | 77 |
| Jerry Blevins L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.43 | 21.8% | 11.2% | 3.2% | .250 | 4.09 | 26.2% | 16.3% | 32 | -0.34 | 2.72 | 166 | 74 |
| Oliver Pérez L 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.36 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .296 | 2.53 | 29.1% | 23.7% | 120 | -0.83 | 1.56 | 219 | 74 |
| Sean Doolittle L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.04 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 3.3% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.39 | 259 | 73 |
| Ryan Buchter L 2026 · 5.07 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.07 | 22.9% | 13.2% | 4.1% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 296 | 73 |
| Neal Cotts L 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.65 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 4.4% | .257 | 4.01 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 93 | -0.64 | 3.24 | 156 | 72 |
| Brian Duensing L 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.18 | 23.7% | 6.6% | 2.3% | .301 | 5.68 | 11.7% | -0.7% | 51 | +2.50 | 2.59 | 198 | 69 |
| Andrew Miller L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.56 | 29.7% | 11.0% | 4.7% | .264 | 3.33 | 25.6% | 16.5% | 49 | -1.23 | 1.34 | 336 | 67 |
| Adam Loewen L 2025 · 4.13 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.13 | 23.4% | 17.4% | 1.5% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 176 | 67 |
| Manny Parra L 2027 · 3.34 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.34 | 18.4% | 10.3% | 0.9% | .351 | 2.43 | 17.3% | 11.0% | 27 | -0.91 | 2.43 | 114 | 66 |
| Brady Feigl L 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.55 | 22.7% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 212 | 65 |
| Heriberto Ruelas L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.89 | 15.0% | 8.9% | 1.7% | .310 | 3.56 | 17.2% | 10.5% | 49 | -0.33 | 3.05 | 117 | 65 |
| Dan Runzler L 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 16.0% | 13.0% | 2.5% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 127 | 65 |
| Craig Breslow L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.86 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 4.2% | .279 | 4.51 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 94 | -0.35 | 4.22 | 159 | 64 |
| Brandon Mann L 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.60 | 17.8% | 11.4% | 1.0% | .232 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 190 | 63 |
| Tony Watson L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.53 | 17.7% | 4.8% | 4.2% | .276 | 3.68 | 19.8% | 13.1% | 75 | -0.85 | 2.22 | 405 | 63 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.47 | 18.5% | 4.9% | 2.4% | .283 | 4.33 | 25.7% | 18.0% | 79 | +0.86 | 3.47 | 512 | 62 |
| Caleb Thielbar L 2026 · 3.19 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.19 | 28.9% | 7.1% | 3.0% | .290 | 3.30 | 29.3% | 21.7% | 137 | +0.11 | 2.22 | 487 | 61 |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.17 | 31.7% | 12.2% | 4.0% | .270 | 4.26 | 27.8% | 12.4% | 146 | +0.09 | 2.33 | 455 | 60 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 45 | 23.0% | 10.8% | 1.23 | 4.40 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |