Colton Johnson
P
Midland RockHounds
+0.0
WAR
Age 28
LHP
6'4" / 220 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.68
FIP4.68
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.3%
BB%10.7%
K-BB%8.5%
IP43
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF3030
CTRL4040
CMD3030
K†4040
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A | Stockton Ports | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 2 | — | — | — | 5.40 | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 41 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 65 | 24 | 4 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | 2.79 | 3.91 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 50 | 0 | 48 | 219 | 33 | 25 | 3 | 12.2% | 12.6% | 1.6% | 2.98 | 4.53 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 43 | — | 43 | 183 | 31 | 24 | 5 | 16.9% | 12.8% | 2.7% | 5.15 | 5.15 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 31 | 22 | 5 | 17.4% | 12.6% | 2.8% | 5.09 | 5.11 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 31 | 22 | 5 | 17.7% | 12.4% | 2.8% | 5.08 | 5.11 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 40 | — | 40 | 168 | 30 | 21 | 5 | 17.7% | 12.4% | 2.9% | 5.11 | 5.15 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 38 | — | 38 | 161 | 28 | 20 | 5 | 17.6% | 12.4% | 3.0% | 5.16 | 5.21 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 36 | — | 36 | 154 | 27 | 19 | 5 | 17.3% | 12.6% | 3.1% | 5.25 | 5.31 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | OAK | 35 | — | 35 | 146 | 25 | 19 | 5 | 16.9% | 12.8% | 3.2% | 5.35 | 5.42 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | OAK | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 23 | 18 | 5 | 16.5% | 13.0% | 3.3% | 5.46 | 5.54 | -0.2 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | OAK | 30 | — | 30 | 129 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 16.1% | 13.3% | 3.4% | 5.59 | 5.67 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 94 | 0 | 110 | 476 | 85 | 55 | 11 | 17.8% | 11.5% | 2.3% | 2.95 | 4.28 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 171 | 0 | 200 | 868 | 155 | 100 | 20 | 17.8% | 11.5% | 2.3% | 2.95 | 4.28 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Colton Johnson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.15 | 16.9% | 12.8% | 2.7% | — | 5.12 | 17.6% | 5.2% | 123 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Bryan Harper L 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.65 | 14.9% | 13.9% | 1.9% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 133 | 85 |
| Keith Hessler L 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.16 | 15.5% | 11.8% | 3.4% | .324 | 5.04 | 19.8% | 6.5% | 53 | -0.12 | 3.29 | 228 | 84 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2027 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 83 |
| Marlon Arias L 2028 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .330 | 3.73 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.57 | 3.73 | 154 | 83 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.57 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 2.9% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 171 | 80 |
| Justin Wright L 2024 · 4.43 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.43 | 14.7% | 13.7% | 1.5% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.28 | 109 | 79 |
| Caleb Thielbar L 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.16 | 11.8% | 10.8% | 1.2% | .253 | 2.66 | 19.0% | 16.6% | 57 | -1.50 | 2.22 | 459 | 78 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2027 · 5.45 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.45 | 14.2% | 12.2% | 3.7% | .356 | 4.80 | 14.1% | 5.9% | 242 | -0.65 | 3.45 | 512 | 78 |
| Jack Snodgrass L 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.04 | 15.7% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 118 | 77 |
| Kirby Bellow L 2024 · 4.42 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.42 | 13.6% | 14.0% | 1.3% | .255 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 108 | 76 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2024 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.27 | 16.9% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.64 | 172 | 76 |
| Juan Grullon L 2024 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.67 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 134 | 76 |
| Hunter Schryver L 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.99 | 17.7% | 12.8% | 1.4% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 206 | 76 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.19 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 3.0% | .308 | 5.03 | 13.8% | -5.1% | 35 | +0.84 | 3.48 | 134 | 76 |
| Kit Scheetz L 2025 · 5.10 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.10 | 16.2% | 13.6% | 3.0% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.34 | 195 | 76 |
| Josh Osich L 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.26 | 21.4% | 12.9% | 4.2% | .328 | 4.44 | 21.1% | 14.1% | 143 | -0.82 | 3.41 | 315 | 76 |
| Adrian Gusman L 2025 · 4.32 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.32 | 17.9% | 9.7% | 2.7% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.94 | 141 | 76 |
| Patrick McCoy L 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.31 | 15.4% | 13.8% | 1.4% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 113 | 76 |
| Mike Minor L 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.65 | 19.2% | 11.8% | 4.9% | .330 | 3.73 | 23.2% | 16.4% | 443 | -1.92 | 2.38 | 807 | 76 |
| Jimmy Reyes L 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.88 | 13.8% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 200 | 75 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.