Colton Johnson
P
Midland RockHounds
Age 28
LHP
6'4" / 220 lbs
AA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 58 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127136vR 146
ERA5.64
FIP5.64
K%13.0%
BB%14.1%
K-BB%-1.2%
ROS IP59
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A | Stockton Ports | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 58.3% | 0.0% | 58.3% | 16.7% | 5.40 | 7.32 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A | Stockton Ports | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 58.3% | 0.0% | 58.3% | 16.7% | 5.40 | 6.70 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 65 | 24 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 2.4% | 2.79 | 4.04 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 65 | 24 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 26.5% | 9.8% | 16.7% | 1.6% | 2.79 | 3.00 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 50 | 0 | 48 | 219 | 33 | 25 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 12.2% | 12.6% | -0.4% | 1.5% | 2.98 | 4.49 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 50 | 0 | 48 | 219 | 33 | 25 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.1% | 11.4% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 2.98 | 4.09 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 56 | 0 | 59 | 249 | 32 | 35 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.0% | 14.1% | -1.2% | 2.7% | 5.64 | 5.64 | -0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 54 | 0 | 56 | 237 | 33 | 33 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.8% | 13.9% | -0.1% | 2.9% | 5.59 | 5.64 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 50 | 0 | 53 | 223 | 32 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.1% | 13.8% | 0.3% | 3.1% | 5.63 | 5.72 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 17 | 0 | 18 | 76 | 10 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.8% | 13.9% | -0.1% | 2.9% | 5.59 | 5.64 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 16 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.1% | 13.8% | 0.3% | 3.1% | 5.63 | 5.72 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 43 | 0 | 45 | 189 | 26 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.0% | 13.8% | 0.2% | 3.0% | 5.61 | 5.31 | -0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 116 | 116 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.0% | 13.8% | 0.2% | 3.0% | 5.61 | 5.31 | +0.2 | ||
| Career | — | 94 | 0 | 110 | 476 | 85 | 55 | 11 | 0% | 1.2 | 17.8% | 11.5% | 6.3% | 2.3% | 2.95 | 4.33 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 171 | 0 | 200 | 868 | 154 | 99 | 20 | 0% | 1.2 | 17.8% | 11.5% | 6.3% | 2.3% | 2.95 | 4.33 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Colton Johnson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.64 | 13.0% | 14.1% | 2.7% | — | 5.68 | 14.0% | 0.1% | 109 | +0.04 | — | — | — |
| Bryan Harper L 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.72 | 14.9% | 13.9% | 2.1% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 133 | 85 |
| Justin Wright L 2024 · 4.48 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.48 | 14.7% | 13.7% | 1.6% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.28 | 109 | 84 |
| Keith Hessler L 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.04 | 15.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .324 | 4.73 | 19.8% | 6.5% | 53 | -0.31 | 3.33 | 228 | 80 |
| Kirby Bellow L 2024 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 13.6% | 14.0% | 1.3% | .255 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.88 | 108 | 79 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2027 · 5.34 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.34 | 14.2% | 12.2% | 3.5% | .356 | 5.01 | 14.1% | 5.9% | 242 | -0.33 | 3.47 | 512 | 77 |
| Kit Scheetz L 2025 · 5.20 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.20 | 16.2% | 13.6% | 3.2% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.34 | 195 | 76 |
| Michael Johnson L 2025 · 4.99 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.99 | 13.4% | 10.0% | 3.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 256 | 76 |
| Mason Melotakis L 2025 · 5.40 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.40 | 12.0% | 11.4% | 3.4% | .343 | 8.50 | 14.7% | 2.5% | 29 | +3.10 | 3.12 | 142 | 75 |
| Jake Rice L 2026 · 6.46 FIP | 28 | SU | 6.46 | 16.9% | 18.2% | 4.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 199 | 73 |
| James Pazos L 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.59 | 15.8% | 10.6% | 2.7% | .390 | 4.38 | 26.0% | 14.0% | 46 | -0.21 | 2.55 | 261 | 73 |
| R.C. Orlan L 2026 · 6.18 FIP | 28 | SU | 6.18 | 13.8% | 19.5% | 3.2% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.71 | 206 | 72 |
| Drake Britton L 2025 · 4.93 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.93 | 8.0% | 10.2% | 2.2% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.82 | 125 | 71 |
| Braulio Lara L 2026 · 5.86 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.86 | 19.8% | 17.8% | 4.0% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 118 | 71 |
| Jimmy Reyes L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.73 | 13.8% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 200 | 71 |
| C.J. Widger L 2025 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.25 | 17.5% | 18.8% | 2.3% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.71 | 105 | 71 |
| Aaron Fletcher L 2024 · 5.26 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.26 | 11.3% | 11.5% | 3.0% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.31 | 167 | 71 |
| Houston Harding L 2026 · 6.08 FIP | 28 | SU | 6.08 | 9.2% | 13.9% | 3.6% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 232 | 70 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.60 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 2.9% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 171 | 70 |
| Michael Heesch L 2024 · 4.59 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.59 | 11.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 109 | 70 |
| Andrew Mitchell L 2025 · 6.14 FIP | 27 | SU | 6.14 | 18.2% | 17.0% | 4.4% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 119 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 56 | 13.6% | 13.9% | 1.11 | 5.62 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |