Jake Rice
P
Reno Aces
Age 29
LHP
6'1" / 220 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 62 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143152vR 162
ERA6.39
FIP6.39
K%17.2%
BB%20.2%
K-BB%-3.0%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 1 | 17 | 69 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 20% | 3.5 | 24.7% | 6.2% | 18.5% | 2.7% | 3.12 | 3.29 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 1 | 17 | 69 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 20% | 3.5 | 30.4% | 5.8% | 24.6% | 1.4% | 3.12 | 2.12 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 39 | 177 | 43 | 24 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.2% | 15.1% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.92 | 6.21 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 39 | 177 | 43 | 24 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.3% | 13.6% | 10.7% | 5.1% | 6.92 | 5.74 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 40 | 0 | 42 | 201 | 58 | 33 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 18.1% | 5.3% | 1.3% | 7.50 | 4.13 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 40 | 0 | 42 | 201 | 58 | 33 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.9% | 16.4% | 12.4% | 2.5% | 7.50 | 4.24 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 56 | 249 | 66 | 33 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.8% | 13.8% | 8.0% | 1.1% | 3.21 | 3.63 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 56 | 249 | 66 | 33 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.5% | 13.3% | 13.3% | 1.2% | 3.21 | 3.21 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Reno Aces | 46 | 0 | 54 | 271 | 52 | 47 | 9 | 0% | 1.2 | 16.9% | 18.2% | -1.3% | 4.5% | 7.83 | 6.46 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Reno Aces | 46 | 0 | 54 | 271 | 52 | 47 | 9 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.2% | 17.3% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 7.83 | 5.95 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 65 | 0 | 69 | 290 | 50 | 59 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.2% | 20.2% | -3.0% | 3.3% | 6.39 | 6.39 | -1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 61 | 0 | 64 | 272 | 48 | 53 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.4% | 19.4% | -2.0% | 3.5% | 6.29 | 6.36 | -1.3 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 57 | 0 | 60 | 254 | 44 | 48 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.5% | 19.0% | -1.5% | 3.6% | 6.30 | 6.41 | -1.3 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 18 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.4% | 19.4% | -2.0% | 3.5% | 6.29 | 6.36 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 24 | 26 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.5% | 19.0% | -1.5% | 3.6% | 6.30 | 6.41 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 54 | 0 | 57 | 240 | 42 | 46 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.5% | 19.2% | -1.7% | 3.6% | 6.30 | 6.01 | -1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 148 | 162 | 32 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.5% | 19.2% | -1.7% | 3.6% | 6.30 | 6.01 | -1.4 | ||
| Career | — | 172 | 1 | 208 | 967 | 198 | 151 | 29 | 1% | 1.2 | 20.5% | 15.6% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 5.96 | 4.98 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 165 | 1 | 200 | 928 | 190 | 145 | 28 | 1% | 1.2 | 20.5% | 15.6% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 5.96 | 4.98 | +1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jake Rice (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.39 | 17.2% | 20.2% | 3.3% | — | 6.38 | 17.5% | -1.8% | 125 | -0.01 | — | — | — |
| Braulio Lara L 2025 · 5.86 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.86 | 19.8% | 17.8% | 4.0% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 118 | 77 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.34 | 14.2% | 12.2% | 3.5% | .356 | 5.01 | 14.1% | 5.9% | 242 | -0.33 | 3.47 | 512 | 71 |
| Cam Booser L 2027 · 6.34 FIP | 30 | SU | 6.34 | 20.8% | 20.7% | 4.3% | .350 | 4.47 | 25.1% | 14.7% | 157 | -1.87 | 2.89 | 290 | 67 |
| Justin King L 2025 · 5.56 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.56 | 24.2% | 23.6% | 2.8% | .395 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 111 | 65 |
| Fabian Williamson L 2025 · 6.02 FIP | 28 | SU | 6.02 | 11.4% | 18.1% | 2.9% | .404 | 4.75 | 20.5% | -0.6% | 30 | -1.27 | 3.46 | 154 | 64 |
| Robby Scott L 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.42 | 23.9% | 15.9% | 4.2% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.34 | 285 | 64 |
| Locke St. John L 2026 · 5.55 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.55 | 16.5% | 12.8% | 4.0% | .233 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.02 | 389 | 60 |
| Andrew Pérez L 2026 · 6.19 FIP | 29 | SU | 6.19 | 19.8% | 17.1% | 4.7% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 304 | 60 |
| Lucas Gilbreath L 2026 · 6.05 FIP | 29 | SU | 6.05 | 17.0% | 14.0% | 4.7% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 431 | 59 |
| Andy Oliver L 2026 · 7.40 FIP | 29 | SU | 7.40 | 16.6% | 13.9% | 7.2% | .379 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 165 | 59 |
| Jack Patterson L 2025 · 5.23 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.23 | 17.4% | 20.5% | 1.8% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 127 | 59 |
| Tom Windle L 2026 · 5.84 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.84 | 11.7% | 21.0% | 1.9% | .176 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 330 | 59 |
| Greg Nappo L 2025 · 6.48 FIP | 28 | SU | 6.48 | 12.3% | 12.6% | 5.1% | .257 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.40 | 144 | 59 |
| Michael Boyle L 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.21 | 20.5% | 13.6% | 3.9% | .228 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.97 | 406 | 58 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.28 | 16.1% | 28.0% | 0.0% | .364 | 4.87 | 15.2% | 8.2% | 32 | -0.41 | 2.79 | 159 | 57 |
| Jordan Carr L 2026 · 7.18 FIP | 29 | SU | 7.18 | 11.4% | 15.1% | 5.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 261 | 52 |
| Jake Brentz L 2026 · 7.08 FIP | 29 | SU | 7.08 | 15.4% | 28.1% | 3.1% | .233 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 235 | 52 |
| Mitch Horacek L 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.65 | 21.3% | 12.7% | 5.0% | .231 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 466 | 51 |
| Brandon Hughes L 2026 · 5.32 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.32 | 20.1% | 9.9% | 4.9% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 206 | 51 |
| Phil Pfeifer L 2026 · 5.80 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.80 | 19.5% | 14.8% | 4.5% | .394 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 307 | 50 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 64 | 17.4% | 19.6% | 1.34 | 6.33 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |