Jake Rice — OGILVIE

Jake Rice P Reno Aces

Age 29 LHP 6'1" / 220 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134142vR 150

ERA6.16

FIP6.16

K%16.5%

BB%18.4%

K-BB%-2.0%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL2020

CMD2525

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	1	17	69	21	4	1	20%	3.5	24.7%	6.2%	18.5%	2.5%	3.12	3.16	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	1	17	69	21	4	1	20%	3.5	30.4%	5.8%	24.6%	1.4%	3.12	2.12	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	39	177	43	24	9	0%	1.1	19.2%	15.1%	4.1%	5.6%	6.92	6.45	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	39	177	43	24	9	0%	1.1	24.3%	13.6%	10.7%	5.1%	6.92	5.74	—
2023	26	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	40	0	42	201	58	33	5	0%	1.1	23.4%	18.1%	5.3%	1.8%	7.50	4.41	—
2023	26	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	40	0	42	201	58	33	5	0%	1.1	23.4%	18.1%	5.3%	1.8%	7.50	4.41	—
2023	26	AA RAW	Amarillo Sod Poodles	40	0	42	201	58	33	5	0%	1.1	28.9%	16.4%	12.4%	2.5%	7.50	4.24	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	56	249	66	33	3	0%	1.2	21.8%	13.8%	8.0%	1.4%	3.21	3.75	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	56	249	66	33	3	0%	1.2	21.8%	13.8%	8.0%	1.4%	3.21	3.75	—
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	56	249	66	33	3	0%	1.2	26.5%	13.3%	13.3%	1.2%	3.21	3.21	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	46	0	54	271	52	47	9	0%	1.2	15.9%	15.6%	0.3%	4.0%	7.83	5.95	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	46	0	54	271	52	47	9	0%	1.2	15.9%	15.6%	0.3%	4.0%	7.83	5.95	—
2025	28	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	46	0	54	271	52	47	9	0%	1.2	19.2%	17.3%	1.8%	3.3%	7.83	5.95	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	ARI	6	0	6	25	4	5	1	0%	1.0	16.5%	18.4%	-2.0%	3.2%	6.16	6.16	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	ARI	61	0	64	272	46	49	9	0%	1.1	16.8%	17.8%	-1.0%	3.3%	6.08	6.15	-1.1
2028	31	MLB MLE	ARI	57	0	60	254	43	44	9	0%	1.1	16.9%	17.5%	-0.6%	3.5%	6.11	6.22	-1.1
2027	30	MLB CTX	ARI	23	0	24	101	17	18	3	0%	1.0	16.8%	17.8%	-1.0%	3.3%	6.08	6.15	-0.4
2028	31	MLB CTX	ARI	31	0	33	139	24	24	5	0%	1.1	16.9%	17.5%	-0.6%	3.5%	6.11	6.22	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		54	0	57	240	41	42	8	0%	1.1	16.9%	17.7%	-0.8%	3.5%	6.10	5.81	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	144	148	28	0%	1.1	16.9%	17.7%	-0.8%	3.5%	6.10	5.81	-2.9
Career	—	MLE		172	1	208	967	195	144	30	1%	1.2	20.2%	14.9%	5.3%	3.1%	5.96	4.96	-2.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		165	1	200	928	187	138	28	1%	1.2	20.2%	14.9%	5.3%	3.1%	5.96	4.96	-3.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Rice (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.16	16.5%	18.4%	3.2%	—	6.18	16.9%	-0.8%	125	+0.02	—	—	—
Ashur Tolliver L 2017 · 5.03 FIP	29	SU	5.03	13.8%	18.9%	1.3%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.49	134	78
Braulio Lara L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	28	SU	5.80	19.8%	17.8%	3.9%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	118	77
Ross Detwiler L 2015 · 5.50 FIP	29	SW	5.50	14.2%	12.2%	3.8%	.356	4.80	14.1%	5.9%	242	-0.70	3.49	512	72
Cam Booser L 2022 · 6.54 FIP	30	SU	6.54	20.8%	20.7%	4.7%	.350	4.52	24.3%	14.8%	157	-2.02	2.96	309	66
Kyle Bird L 2022 · 5.04 FIP	29	SU	5.04	18.4%	15.4%	2.8%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	379	65
Fabian Williamson L 2017 · 5.87 FIP	28	SU	5.87	11.4%	18.1%	2.6%	.404	4.78	20.5%	-0.6%	30	-1.09	3.39	154	64
Robby Scott L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	29	SU	5.59	23.9%	15.9%	4.5%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	2.39	285	62
Locke St. John L 2022 · 5.62 FIP	29	SU	5.62	16.5%	12.8%	4.2%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.07	389	60
Greg Nappo L 2017 · 6.26 FIP	28	SU	6.26	12.3%	12.6%	4.7%	.257	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	144	60
Tom Windle L 2021 · 5.88 FIP	29	SU	5.88	11.7%	21.0%	2.0%	.176	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	330	60
Andy Oliver L 2017 · 7.12 FIP	29	SU	7.12	16.6%	13.9%	6.7%	.379	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	165	59
Michael Boyle L 2023 · 5.26 FIP	29	SU	5.26	19.8%	12.2%	4.2%	.228	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	406	56
Robbie Ross Jr. L 2018 · 5.28 FIP	29	SU	5.28	16.1%	28.0%	0.0%	.364	4.98	15.2%	8.2%	32	-0.30	2.81	159	56
Brandon Hughes L 2023 · 5.45 FIP	27	SU	5.45	20.1%	12.4%	4.5%	.360	4.85	20.8%	12.0%	93	-0.60	3.68	206	56
Nathan Kirby L 2022 · 5.07 FIP	28	SW	5.07	14.3%	20.8%	1.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	145	54
Jake McSteen L 2023 · 6.05 FIP	27	SU	6.05	16.7%	8.0%	6.1%	.302	4.04	19.5%	13.3%	73	-2.01	2.22	286	53
Mitch Horacek L 2021 · 5.65 FIP	29	SU	5.65	21.3%	12.7%	5.0%	.231	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	466	51
Phil Pfeifer L 2021 · 5.65 FIP	29	SW	5.65	19.5%	14.8%	4.2%	.394	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	307	51
Jed Bradley L 2017 · 7.28 FIP	27	SU	7.28	12.7%	10.8%	7.1%	.371	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	176	50
Williams Jerez L 2021 · 7.03 FIP	29	SU	7.03	18.7%	11.7%	7.3%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	364	49

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	64	16.7%	18.0%	1.29	6.12
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82