Jake Rice

P Reno Aces

Age 30 LHP 6'1" / 220 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	26	AAARI	40	0	42	7.50	4.24	28.9%	16.4%	—	K 23.4% · BB 18.1% · FIP 4.41
2024	27	MIX2 levels	46	0	56	3.21	3.21	26.5%	13.3%	—	K 21.8% · BB 13.8% · FIP 3.75
2025	28	AAAARI	46	0	54	7.83	5.95	19.2%	17.3%	—	K 16.5% · BB 15.6% · FIP 5.90
2026	29	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	30	MLBARI	7	0	7	6.09	6.09	16.5%	17.9%	-0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	31	MLBARI	16	0	17	6.03	6.11	16.8%	17.4%	-0.3
2029PROJ55% MLB	32	MLBARI	19	0	20	6.08	6.21	16.9%	17.2%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control20Command25

CompsStephen Randolph (age 30) · Ashur Tolliver (age 29) · Braulio Lara (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133141vR 149

ERA6.09

FIP6.09

K%16.5%

BB%17.9%

K-BB%-1.4%

Proj IP68

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL2020

CMD2525

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	1	17	69	21	4	1	20%	3.5	24.7%	6.2%	18.5%	2.5%	3.12	3.16	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	1	17	69	21	4	1	20%	3.5	30.4%	5.8%	24.6%	1.4%	3.12	2.12	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	39	177	43	24	9	0%	1.1	19.2%	15.1%	4.1%	5.6%	6.92	6.45	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	39	177	43	24	9	0%	1.1	24.3%	13.6%	10.7%	5.1%	6.92	5.74	—
2023	26	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	40	0	42	201	58	33	5	0%	1.1	23.4%	18.1%	5.3%	1.8%	7.50	4.41	—
2023	26	AA RAW	Amarillo Sod Poodles	40	0	42	201	58	33	5	0%	1.1	28.9%	16.4%	12.4%	2.5%	7.50	4.24	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	56	249	66	33	3	0%	1.2	21.8%	13.8%	8.0%	1.4%	3.21	3.75	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	56	249	66	33	3	0%	1.2	21.8%	13.8%	8.0%	1.4%	3.21	3.75	—
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	56	249	66	33	3	0%	1.2	26.5%	13.3%	13.3%	1.2%	3.21	3.21	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	46	0	54	271	52	47	9	0%	1.2	16.5%	15.6%	0.9%	4.0%	7.83	5.90	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	46	0	54	271	52	47	9	0%	1.2	16.5%	15.6%	0.9%	4.0%	7.83	5.90	—
2025	28	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	46	0	54	271	52	47	9	0%	1.2	19.2%	17.3%	1.8%	3.3%	7.83	5.95	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	ARI	7	0	7	30	5	5	1	0%	1.0	16.5%	17.9%	-1.4%	3.2%	6.09	6.09	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	ARI	44	0	46	195	33	34	7	0%	1.0	16.8%	17.4%	-0.6%	3.4%	6.03	6.11	-0.8
2029	32	MLB MLE	ARI	35	0	36	154	26	27	6	0%	1.0	16.9%	17.2%	-0.3%	3.6%	6.08	6.21	-0.6
2028	31	MLB CTX	ARI	16	0	17	72	12	13	2	0%	1.1	16.8%	17.4%	-0.6%	3.4%	6.03	6.11	-0.3
2029	32	MLB CTX	ARI	19	0	20	84	14	15	3	0%	1.1	16.9%	17.2%	-0.3%	3.6%	6.08	6.21	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		35	0	37	157	26	27	5	0%	1.1	16.9%	17.3%	-0.5%	3.5%	6.06	5.78	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	140	146	27	0%	1.1	16.9%	17.3%	-0.5%	3.5%	6.06	5.78	-2.9
Career	—	MLE		172	1	208	967	197	144	30	1%	1.2	20.4%	14.9%	5.5%	3.1%	5.96	4.94	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		165	1	200	928	189	138	28	1%	1.2	20.4%	14.9%	5.5%	3.1%	5.96	4.94	-3.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAReno Aces · 54 IPFIP 5.50 → 5.90 (+0.40)K% 19.2% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.19%	—	×0.860	16.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.34%	—	×0.900	15.61%
HR / BF /BF	3.32%	÷0.904	×1.100	4.04%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 81).

Result: FIP 5.50 → 5.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 49 IPFIP 3.18 → 3.75 (+0.57)K% 26.9% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.85%	—	×0.810	21.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×1.100	13.75%
HR / BF /BF	1.39%	÷1.229	×1.200	1.36%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 146).

Result: FIP 3.18 → 3.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAReno Aces · 7 IPFIP 3.36 → 3.41 (+0.06)K% 24.2% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.24%	—	×0.860	20.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.18%	—	×0.900	16.36%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.124	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.36 → 3.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 42 IPFIP 4.11 → 4.41 (+0.31)K% 28.9% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.86%	—	×0.810	23.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.42%	—	×1.100	18.06%
HR / BF /BF	2.49%	÷1.637	×1.200	1.82%

Result: FIP 4.11 → 4.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 25 IPFIP 7.50 → 8.36 (+0.87)K% 18.0% → 14.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.03%	—	×0.810	14.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.75%	—	×1.100	16.23%
HR / BF /BF	7.38%	÷1.094	×1.200	8.09%

Result: FIP 7.50 → 8.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Hillsboro Hops · 14 IPFIP 1.26 → 2.21 (+0.95)K% 38.2% → 29.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.18%	—	×0.770	29.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.91%	—	×1.150	12.55%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.848	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 70).

Result: FIP 1.26 → 2.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AVisalia Rawhide · 14 IPFIP 1.91 → 3.16 (+1.25)K% 33.3% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.740	24.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.26%	—	×1.180	6.21%
HR / BF /BF	1.75%	÷0.923	×1.300	2.47%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 1.91 → 3.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Rice (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.09	16.5%	17.9%	3.2%	—	6.15	16.8%	-0.5%	83	+0.06	—	—	—
Stephen Randolph L 2004 · 5.69 FIP	30	SU	5.69	15.8%	18.8%	2.8%	.252	5.97	28.2%	9.0%	13	+0.28	4.83	155	77
Ashur Tolliver L 2017 · 5.03 FIP	29	SU	5.03	13.8%	18.9%	1.3%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.49	134	76
Braulio Lara L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	28	SU	5.80	19.8%	17.8%	3.9%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	118	75
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	74
Keith Hessler L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	29	SU	4.96	19.8%	13.3%	3.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	228	70
Kevin Chapman L 2018 · 5.66 FIP	30	SU	5.66	17.1%	15.7%	3.7%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	194	70
Brian Shouse L 2002 · 5.54 FIP	33	SU	5.54	15.5%	11.3%	4.2%	.245	3.31	16.3%	10.7%	159	-2.23	2.32	339	68
Bobby Jones L 2002 · 5.24 FIP	30	SU	5.24	14.3%	12.7%	3.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	321	65
Darien Núñez L 2023 · 6.09 FIP	30	SU	6.09	17.4%	22.2%	3.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	122	64
Aaron Brown L 2022 · 5.38 FIP	30	SU	5.38	21.3%	12.5%	4.5%	.253	—	—	—	—	—	4.04	269	64
Rodolfo Aguilar L 2019 · 5.46 FIP	30	SU	5.46	8.1%	13.8%	2.4%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	2.93	115	64
Cam Booser L 2022 · 6.54 FIP	30	SU	6.54	20.8%	20.7%	4.7%	.350	4.49	24.8%	15.2%	157	-2.05	2.76	314	63
Valerio De Los Santos L 2003 · 4.97 FIP	30	SU	4.97	17.1%	11.0%	3.5%	.237	4.47	16.3%	5.7%	34	-0.50	3.40	239	63
Joey Eischen L 2001 · 5.00 FIP	31	SU	5.00	14.5%	11.5%	3.0%	.269	3.14	20.9%	14.9%	125	-1.86	2.13	294	60
Eric DuBose L 2005 · 5.45 FIP	29	SW	5.45	12.6%	14.1%	3.0%	.253	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	178	60
Hector Mercado L 2003 · 6.59 FIP	29	SU	6.59	17.4%	14.0%	5.8%	.241	—	—	—	—	—	3.47	125	60
Phil Dumatrait L 2011 · 5.09 FIP	30	SU	5.09	14.8%	10.2%	3.5%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.39	151	59
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	59
Greg Nappo L 2017 · 6.26 FIP	28	SU	6.26	12.3%	12.6%	4.7%	.257	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	144	59
Dan Meyer L 2010 · 6.30 FIP	29	SU	6.30	7.3%	21.8%	1.9%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	112	58

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	50	16.7%	17.6%	1.29	6.07
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Lloyd Allen ('69-'75, -5 WAR*)	1.5	59	19.8%*	13.9%*	0.79*	5.99*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*