Jake Rice
P
Reno Aces
+0.0
WAR
Age 29
LHP
6'1" / 220 lbs
AAA
ERA5.33
FIP5.33
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.1%
BB%14.4%
K-BB%5.7%
IP50
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
STUF4040
CTRL2020
CMD2525
K†4545
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 5 | 1 | 17 | 69 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 24.7% | 6.2% | 2.4% | 3.12 | 3.14 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 35 | 0 | 39 | 177 | 43 | 24 | 9 | 19.2% | 15.1% | 5.7% | 6.92 | 6.52 | -0.7 |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 40 | 0 | 42 | 201 | 58 | 33 | 5 | 23.4% | 18.1% | 1.8% | 7.50 | 4.38 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Reno Aces | 46 | 0 | 56 | 249 | 66 | 33 | 3 | 21.8% | 13.8% | 1.3% | 3.21 | 3.73 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Reno Aces | 46 | 0 | 54 | 271 | 52 | 47 | 9 | 16.9% | 18.2% | 3.9% | 7.83 | 6.14 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 50 | — | 50 | 213 | 40 | 38 | 7 | 18.9% | 17.9% | 3.1% | 5.87 | 5.87 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 40 | 35 | 7 | 19.2% | 17.2% | 3.2% | 5.75 | 5.78 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 47 | — | 47 | 199 | 38 | 33 | 6 | 19.3% | 16.7% | 3.2% | 5.70 | 5.74 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 45 | — | 45 | 191 | 37 | 32 | 6 | 19.2% | 16.5% | 3.3% | 5.71 | 5.76 | -0.4 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 43 | — | 43 | 183 | 35 | 30 | 6 | 19.0% | 16.5% | 3.4% | 5.76 | 5.82 | -0.4 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 32 | 29 | 6 | 18.6% | 16.7% | 3.5% | 5.86 | 5.93 | -0.5 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | ARI | 39 | — | 39 | 163 | 30 | 28 | 6 | 18.2% | 16.9% | 3.6% | 5.97 | 6.05 | -0.5 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | ARI | 36 | — | 36 | 153 | 27 | 26 | 6 | 17.8% | 17.1% | 3.7% | 6.10 | 6.18 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 172 | 1 | 208 | 967 | 198 | 151 | 29 | 20.5% | 15.6% | 3.0% | 5.96 | 5.01 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 165 | 1 | 200 | 928 | 190 | 145 | 28 | 20.5% | 15.6% | 3.0% | 5.96 | 5.01 | +0.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jake Rice (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.87 | 18.9% | 17.9% | 3.1% | — | 5.76 | 19.2% | 2.4% | 141 | -0.11 | — | — | — |
| Braulio Lara L 2025 · 5.80 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.80 | 19.8% | 17.8% | 3.9% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 118 | 78 |
| Keith Hessler L 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.04 | 19.8% | 13.3% | 3.5% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 228 | 76 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.03 | 13.8% | 18.9% | 1.3% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 134 | 74 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.45 | 14.2% | 12.2% | 3.7% | .356 | 4.80 | 14.1% | 5.9% | 242 | -0.65 | 3.45 | 512 | 73 |
| Luke Westphal L 2024 · 4.68 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.68 | 21.2% | 19.7% | 1.6% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.97 | 294 | 70 |
| Travis Bergen L 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.96 | 19.3% | 20.5% | 1.6% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 143 | 70 |
| Cam Booser L 2027 · 6.60 FIP | 30 | SU | 6.60 | 20.8% | 20.7% | 4.8% | .350 | 4.61 | 25.1% | 14.7% | 157 | -1.99 | 3.16 | 253 | 67 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.68 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 175 | 66 |
| Danny Wirchansky L 2025 · 5.93 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.93 | 13.0% | 12.8% | 4.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.53 | 179 | 66 |
| Robby Scott L 2026 · 5.63 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.63 | 23.9% | 15.9% | 4.6% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.40 | 285 | 66 |
| Kyle Bird L 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.10 | 18.4% | 15.4% | 2.9% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 379 | 65 |
| Jack Snodgrass L 2025 · 5.04 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.04 | 15.7% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 118 | 63 |
| Marco Tovar L 2025 · 5.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.03 | 16.1% | 11.3% | 3.4% | .317 | 4.78 | 12.6% | 7.0% | 82 | -0.25 | 3.78 | 327 | 62 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.28 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 3.9% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.28 | 128 | 62 |
| Phil Pfeifer L 2026 · 5.66 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.66 | 19.5% | 14.8% | 4.3% | .394 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 307 | 62 |
| Jimmy Reyes L 2025 · 4.88 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.88 | 13.8% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 200 | 61 |
| Fabian Williamson L 2025 · 5.87 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.87 | 11.4% | 18.1% | 2.6% | .404 | 4.78 | 20.5% | -0.6% | 30 | -1.09 | 3.42 | 154 | 61 |
| Brandon Mann L 2029 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 3.99 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.74 | 3.59 | 190 | 61 |
| Michael Boyle L 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.35 | 20.5% | 13.6% | 4.1% | .228 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.97 | 406 | 60 |
| Locke St. John L 2026 · 5.63 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.63 | 16.5% | 12.8% | 4.2% | .233 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 389 | 59 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.