Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | A | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 32 | 0 | 46 | 204 | 64 | 40 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.2% | 23.1% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 3.72 | 4.35 | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 32 | 0 | 46 | 204 | 64 | 40 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 31.4% | 19.6% | 11.8% | 0.5% | 3.72 | 3.21 | — |
| 2016 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 0 | 25 | 130 | 34 | 31 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.8% | 28.0% | -8.1% | 3.2% | 8.53 | 6.73 | — |
| 2016 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 0 | 25 | 130 | 34 | 31 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.2% | 23.8% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 8.53 | 5.63 | — |
| 2017 | 25 | A+ | Fort Myers Miracle | 3 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0% | 0.9 | 0.0% | 43.8% | -43.8% | 0.0% | 3.38 | 8.64 | — |
| 2017 | 25 | A+ | Fort Myers Miracle | 3 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0% | 0.9 | 0.0% | 43.8% | -43.8% | 0.0% | 3.38 | 10.97 | — |
| 2022 | 30 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 19 | 0 | 25 | 117 | 30 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.8% | 20.7% | 0.1% | 4.3% | 6.48 | 6.34 | — |
| 2022 | 30 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 19 | 0 | 25 | 117 | 30 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.6% | 18.8% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 6.48 | 5.94 | — |
| 2023 | 31 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 48 | 0 | 58 | 247 | 66 | 24 | 11 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.5% | 10.2% | 13.3% | 4.8% | 4.99 | 5.05 | — |
| 2023 | 31 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 48 | 0 | 58 | 247 | 66 | 24 | 11 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.7% | 9.7% | 17.0% | 4.5% | 4.99 | 4.54 | — |
| 2024 | 32 | MIX | 3 levels | 52 | 0 | 54 | 237 | 65 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.4% | 8.2% | 18.1% | 2.1% | 3.81 | 3.08 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 32 | MIX | 3 levels | 52 | 0 | 54 | 237 | 65 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.4% | 8.0% | 19.4% | 2.1% | 3.81 | 2.95 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 55 | 0 | 46 | 220 | 59 | 28 | 13 | 0% | 0.8 | 25.5% | 13.0% | 12.6% | 5.0% | 6.11 | 5.35 | -0.4 |
| 2025 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 55 | 0 | 46 | 220 | 59 | 28 | 13 | 0% | 0.8 | 26.8% | 12.7% | 14.1% | 5.9% | 6.11 | 6.06 | -0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 38 | 0 | 37 | 143 | 47 | 9 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.9% | 6.5% | 24.4% | 2.9% | 1.70 | 2.89 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 34 | MLB | TB | 34 | 0 | 35 | 149 | 41 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.5% | 10.8% | 16.7% | 3.6% | 3.90 | 4.13 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 34 | MLB | TB | 33 | 0 | 35 | 148 | 41 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.5% | 10.8% | 16.7% | 3.6% | 3.90 | 4.13 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 34 | MLB | TB | — | — | 72 | 292 | 88 | 25 | 9 | — | — | 30.1% | 8.6% | 21.5% | 3.2% | 2.77 | 3.49 | +1.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 34 | MLB | TB | — | — | 52 | 220 | 88 | 25 | 9 | — | — | 39.9% | 11.4% | 28.5% | 4.3% | 3.84 | 3.51 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | TB | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 53 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.7% | 11.3% | 15.4% | 4.1% | 4.68 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | TB | 39 | 0 | 41 | 175 | 44 | 20 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.4% | 11.7% | 13.7% | 4.4% | 4.99 | 5.23 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | TB | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 50 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.7% | 11.3% | 15.4% | 4.1% | 4.68 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | TB | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 39 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.4% | 11.7% | 13.7% | 4.4% | 4.99 | 5.23 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 207 | 0 | 206 | 877 | 230 | 92 | 36 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.3% | 10.5% | 15.8% | 4.1% | 4.20 | 4.44 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 201 | 0 | 200 | 850 | 223 | 89 | 35 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.3% | 10.5% | 15.8% | 4.1% | 4.20 | 4.44 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 268 | 0 | 294 | 1314 | 318 | 197 | 42 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.2% | 15.0% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 4.75 | 4.73 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 183 | 0 | 200 | 895 | 217 | 134 | 29 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.2% | 15.0% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 4.75 | 4.73 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cam Booser (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.78 | 26.3% | 11.7% | 3.7% | — | 5.05 | 26.1% | 14.6% | 88 | +0.27 | — | — | — |
| Boone Logan L 2025 · 5.55 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.55 | 24.1% | 12.1% | 5.4% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 113 | 73 |
| Tony Sipp L 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.69 | 23.6% | 8.5% | 4.6% | .269 | 2.57 | 24.9% | 15.9% | 60 | -2.12 | 2.18 | 195 | 73 |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.17 | 31.7% | 12.2% | 4.0% | .270 | 4.26 | 27.8% | 12.4% | 146 | +0.09 | 2.33 | 455 | 71 |
| Andrew Miller L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.56 | 29.7% | 11.0% | 4.7% | .264 | 3.33 | 25.6% | 16.5% | 49 | -1.23 | 1.34 | 336 | 70 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.67 | 20.0% | 8.0% | 4.1% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 181 | 67 |
| Sean Doolittle L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.04 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 3.3% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.39 | 259 | 67 |
| Neal Cotts L 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.65 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 4.4% | .257 | 4.01 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 93 | -0.64 | 3.24 | 156 | 66 |
| Ryan Buchter L 2026 · 5.07 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.07 | 22.9% | 13.2% | 4.1% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 296 | 65 |
| Jerry Blevins L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.43 | 21.8% | 11.2% | 3.2% | .250 | 4.09 | 26.2% | 16.3% | 32 | -0.34 | 2.72 | 166 | 62 |
| Tony Watson L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.53 | 17.7% | 4.8% | 4.2% | .276 | 3.68 | 19.8% | 13.1% | 75 | -0.85 | 2.22 | 405 | 58 |
| Adam Loewen L 2025 · 4.13 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.13 | 23.4% | 17.4% | 1.5% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 176 | 58 |
| Tommy Layne L 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.65 | 18.4% | 10.1% | 5.1% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.32 | 182 | 57 |
| Wei-Yin Chen L 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.87 | 20.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 549 | 54 |
| Craig Breslow L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.86 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 4.2% | .279 | 4.51 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 94 | -0.35 | 4.22 | 159 | 53 |
| Dan Runzler L 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 16.0% | 13.0% | 2.5% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 127 | 52 |
| Brandon Mann L 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.60 | 17.8% | 11.4% | 1.0% | .232 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 190 | 52 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.97 | 17.1% | 6.9% | 2.6% | .376 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 280 | 52 |
| Heriberto Ruelas L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.89 | 15.0% | 8.9% | 1.7% | .310 | 3.56 | 17.2% | 10.5% | 49 | -0.33 | 3.05 | 117 | 50 |
| Luke Westphal L 2025 · 4.18 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.18 | 24.2% | 13.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 5.42 | 16.1% | -3.1% | 26 | +1.24 | 2.97 | 294 | 47 |
| Edwin Escobar L 2024 · 5.24 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.24 | 20.1% | 16.3% | 3.2% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.20 | 218 | 45 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 47 | 26.2% | 11.6% | 1.56 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Michael Feliz ('21) | 5 | 47 | 30.5% | 9.8% | 1.48 | 5.05 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |