Brooks Raley — OGILVIE

Brooks Raley P Philadelphia Phillies

Age 38 LHP 6'3" / 200 lbs MLB peak 0.5 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION52 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8088vR 96

ERA3.13

FIP3.29

K%23.3%

BB%7.4%

K-BB%15.9%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.3

Whiff%

p4124.0%

p5823.6%

xwOBA vs

p630.299

SL+2.6 (37%)

FB+0.7 (21%)

SI (21%)

CH (13%)

CT-1.2 (29%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2020	32	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	21	0	20	84	27	6	3	0%	1.0	32.1%	7.1%	25.0%	3.7%	4.95	3.31	+0.3
2020	32	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	21	0	20	84	27	6	3	0%	1.0	32.1%	7.1%	25.0%	3.6%	4.95	3.25	+0.3
2021	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	0	50	209	66	16	6	0%	0.8	31.7%	7.8%	23.9%	3.0%	4.68	3.06	+0.9
2021	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	59	0	50	209	66	16	6	0%	0.8	31.6%	7.7%	23.9%	2.9%	4.68	2.98	+0.9
2022	34	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	60	0	54	219	61	15	3	0%	0.9	27.9%	6.8%	21.0%	1.4%	2.68	2.39	+1.4
2022	34	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	60	0	54	219	61	15	3	0%	0.9	27.9%	6.8%	21.0%	1.4%	2.68	2.39	+1.4
2023	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	67	0	56	240	64	22	4	0%	0.8	25.8%	9.3%	16.5%	1.7%	2.75	3.03	+1.0
2023	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	67	0	56	240	64	22	4	0%	0.8	25.8%	9.3%	16.5%	1.7%	2.75	3.03	+1.0
2023	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	67	0	56	240	64	22	4	0%	0.8	26.7%	9.2%	17.5%	1.7%	2.75	2.92	+1.1
2024	36	MLB MLE	New York Mets	8	0	7	25	9	3	0	0%	0.9	36.0%	12.0%	24.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.58	+0.3
2024	36	MLB MLE	New York Mets	8	0	7	25	9	3	0	0%	0.9	36.0%	12.0%	24.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.58	+0.3
2024	36	MLB RAW	New York Mets	8	0	7	25	9	3	0	0%	0.9	36.0%	12.0%	24.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.81	+0.2
2025	37	MIX MLE	4 levels	38	1	35	135	38	7	0	3%	0.9	25.3%	6.1%	19.2%	0.0%	1.82	1.74	+1.2
2025	37	MIX MLE	4 levels	38	1	35	135	38	7	0	3%	0.9	25.3%	6.1%	19.2%	0.0%	1.82	1.74	+1.2
2025	37	MIX RAW	4 levels	38	1	35	135	38	7	0	3%	0.9	28.1%	5.2%	23.0%	0.0%	1.82	1.51	+1.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			302	0	262	1084	299	85	22	0%	0.9	27.6%	7.8%	19.7%	2.0%	3.23	2.88	+5.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	38	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	59	0	52	216	51	17	6	0%	0.9	23.6%	7.9%	15.7%	2.6%	2.96	3.52	+0.6
YTD	38	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	59	0	52	216	51	17	6	0%	0.9	23.6%	7.9%	15.7%	2.6%	2.96	3.52	+0.6
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	38	MLB RAW	PHI	59	0	52	216	51	17	6	0%	0.9	23.6%	7.9%	15.7%	2.8%	2.96	3.63	+0.6
SO FAR	38	MLB RAW	PHI	59	0	52	216	51	17	6	0%	0.9	23.6%	7.9%	15.7%	2.8%	2.96	3.63	+0.6
ROS	38	MLB MLE	PHI	4	0	5	20	5	1	0	0%	1.2	23.3%	7.4%	15.9%	2.2%	3.13	3.29	+0.1
ROS	38	MLB CTX	PHI	5	0	5	21	5	2	0	0%	1.0	23.3%	7.4%	15.9%	2.2%	3.13	3.29	+0.1
2026 TOT	38	MLB MLE	PHI	—	—	56	236	56	18	6	—	—	23.6%	7.8%	15.8%	2.7%	2.98	3.51	+0.7
FULL	38	MLB A+C	PHI	—	—	56	238	56	18	6	—	—	23.4%	7.8%	15.6%	2.7%	2.98	3.60	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	39	MLB MLE	PHI	46	0	48	204	45	17	6	0%	1.0	22.1%	8.1%	14.0%	2.8%	3.95	4.19	+0.2
2028	40	MLB MLE	PHI	40	0	42	175	37	15	6	0%	1.0	21.0%	8.8%	12.2%	3.3%	4.35	4.62	-0.0
2027	39	MLB CTX	PHI	39	0	41	173	38	14	5	0%	1.1	22.1%	8.1%	14.0%	2.8%	3.95	4.19	+0.2
2028	40	MLB CTX	PHI	29	0	30	127	27	11	4	0%	1.0	21.0%	8.8%	12.2%	3.3%	4.35	4.62	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		374	0	338	1405	369	112	32	0%	0.9	26.3%	8.0%	18.3%	2.2%	3.42	3.12	+5.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		222	0	200	832	219	66	19	0%	0.9	26.3%	8.0%	18.3%	2.2%	3.42	3.12	+3.4
Career	—	MLE		312	1	273	1128	310	88	22	0%	0.9	27.5%	7.8%	19.7%	2.0%	3.10	2.84	+5.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		229	1	200	827	228	64	16	0%	0.9	27.5%	7.8%	19.7%	2.0%	3.10	2.84	+3.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brooks Raley (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.64	23.0%	7.1%	2.2%	—	4.39	21.6%	13.2%	90	+0.75	—	—	—
Neal Cotts L 2017 · 3.21 FIP	37	SU	3.21	25.5%	8.0%	2.3%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	156	81
Wilfredo Ledezma L 2017 · 3.35 FIP	36	SU	3.35	26.7%	8.3%	2.7%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	2.58	109	67
Jorge De La Rosa L 2018 · 4.07 FIP	37	SU	4.07	19.3%	9.5%	2.6%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.86	405	63
Peter Moylan R 2017 · 3.63 FIP	38	SU	3.63	18.9%	9.1%	1.8%	.211	4.77	17.8%	6.2%	28	+1.14	3.11	174	37
Ryan Madson R 2018 · 3.49 FIP	37	SU	3.49	23.4%	6.1%	2.9%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	1.42	240	35
Fernando Rodney R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	38	SU	4.37	20.9%	9.4%	3.4%	.272	3.37	26.2%	15.2%	185	-1.00	2.69	295	35
Joaquín Benoit R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	38	SU	3.58	24.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.179	4.11	23.5%	12.9%	98	+0.53	3.58	164	35
Ervin Santana R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	38	SU	4.40	18.8%	7.6%	3.5%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	720	34
Matt Belisle R 2018 · 4.60 FIP	38	SU	4.60	15.4%	6.2%	3.7%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	2.51	174	32
Manny Acosta R 2019 · 3.08 FIP	38	SU	3.08	23.2%	13.3%	0.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	102	32
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	31
Jose Valverde R 2015 · 2.47 FIP	37	SU	2.47	17.8%	3.0%	0.9%	.253	2.21	25.4%	19.1%	58	-0.26	2.21	122	31
Ronald Belisario R 2019 · 4.16 FIP	36	SU	4.16	12.7%	3.9%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	2.10	126	30
Brad Ziegler R 2018 · 4.03 FIP	38	SU	4.03	16.4%	6.2%	2.8%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	2.63	257	28
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	28
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	38	SU	3.51	13.3%	2.5%	2.2%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	119	28
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	27
Chien-Ming Wang R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	36	SU	4.53	13.0%	7.8%	2.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.23	183	27
Santiago Casilla R 2018 · 4.14 FIP	38	SU	4.14	16.8%	15.2%	1.0%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	219	25
Luis Ayala R 2016 · 3.03 FIP	38	SU	3.03	10.9%	4.5%	0.5%	.320	4.00	15.9%	4.2%	14	+0.97	3.03	119	24

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	49	22.2%	7.9%	1.05	3.88
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Derek Law ('24)	1.5	60	21.5%	8.9%	0.88	3.47
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Cory Gearrin ('19)	1.1	57	21.5%	9.8%	0.79	3.42
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21