Justin King
P
Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp
Age 28
LHP
6'1" / 215 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION25 act + 18 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103112vR 121
ERA4.51
FIP4.51
K%23.6%
BB%12.7%
K-BB%10.9%
ROS IP18
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 0 | 8 | 40 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.8 | 27.5% | 12.5% | 15.0% | 0.0% | 5.40 | 2.36 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 0 | 8 | 40 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.8 | 27.5% | 12.5% | 15.0% | 0.0% | 5.40 | 2.26 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 28 | 0 | 31 | 140 | 54 | 24 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.7% | 19.7% | 10.0% | 0.8% | 2.93 | 3.55 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 28 | 0 | 31 | 140 | 54 | 24 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 38.6% | 17.1% | 21.4% | 0.7% | 2.93 | 2.35 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 36 | 0 | 37 | 159 | 58 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.5% | 11.8% | 17.8% | 2.0% | 6.08 | 3.20 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 36 | 0 | 37 | 159 | 58 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 36.5% | 10.7% | 25.8% | 1.9% | 6.08 | 2.40 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 0 | 33 | 158 | 41 | 29 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 20.5% | -0.6% | 0.7% | 3.55 | 4.42 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 0 | 33 | 158 | 41 | 29 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.9% | 18.4% | 7.6% | 1.3% | 3.55 | 4.04 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 22 | 0 | 25 | 122 | 40 | 23 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.2% | 23.6% | 0.6% | 2.8% | 4.97 | 5.56 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | MIA | 18 | 0 | 18 | 78 | 18 | 10 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 12.7% | 10.9% | 2.6% | 4.51 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | MIA | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 12.7% | 10.9% | 2.6% | 4.51 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 44 | 200 | 58 | 33 | 4 | — | — | 29.2% | 16.5% | 12.8% | 2.0% | 4.78 | 5.12 | -0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 23.6% | 12.7% | 10.9% | 2.6% | 4.51 | 4.13 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 12.6% | 10.8% | 2.8% | 4.57 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 12.6% | 10.8% | 2.8% | 4.57 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 9 | 0 | 9 | 39 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 12.6% | 10.8% | 2.7% | 4.56 | 4.22 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 196 | 109 | 22 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 12.6% | 10.8% | 2.7% | 4.56 | 4.22 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 127 | 0 | 134 | 619 | 161 | 113 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.9% | 18.2% | 7.8% | 1.4% | 4.49 | 4.00 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 189 | 0 | 200 | 922 | 239 | 168 | 13 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.9% | 18.2% | 7.8% | 1.4% | 4.49 | 4.00 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Justin King (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.51 | 23.6% | 12.7% | 2.6% | — | 4.62 | 23.4% | 10.8% | 20 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Edward Paredes L 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.49 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .225 | 3.53 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 86 | +0.04 | 2.29 | 130 | 84 |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.40 | 26.5% | 11.9% | 1.9% | .310 | 3.21 | 27.0% | 15.3% | 106 | -0.19 | 2.33 | 455 | 82 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.61 | 24.7% | 12.4% | 1.8% | .336 | 3.52 | 20.7% | 8.3% | 27 | -0.09 | 3.41 | 160 | 82 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.24 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .308 | 5.05 | 13.8% | -5.1% | 35 | +0.81 | 3.43 | 134 | 80 |
| Josh Edgin L 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 22.1% | 13.2% | 1.2% | .359 | 3.67 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 80 | +0.09 | 3.36 | 113 | 80 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.06 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.73 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.33 | 3.73 | 108 | 80 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.5% | .321 | 3.39 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 66 | -0.23 | 2.95 | 101 | 79 |
| Kevin Siegrist L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.00 | 25.0% | 11.6% | 2.8% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.67 | 176 | 79 |
| Trevor Lane L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.04 | 22.2% | 12.7% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.07 | 246 | 79 |
| Mike Dunn L 2028 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.09 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.33 | 3.72 | 181 | 79 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.31 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 1.8% | .348 | 4.21 | 19.2% | 8.0% | 39 | +0.90 | 3.04 | 153 | 78 |
| Josh Osich L 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.01 | 21.4% | 12.9% | 3.8% | .328 | 4.42 | 21.1% | 14.1% | 143 | -0.59 | 3.47 | 315 | 78 |
| Aaron Brown L 2025 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.88 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 1.8% | .317 | 4.79 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 129 | +0.91 | 3.88 | 269 | 78 |
| Zac Rosscup L 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.69 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 4.1% | .296 | 2.67 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -2.02 | 2.51 | 160 | 78 |
| Brendan Cellucci L 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.71 | 22.3% | 12.5% | 3.5% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.96 | 265 | 77 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.60 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 2.9% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 171 | 77 |
| Tommy Layne L 2028 · 3.58 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.58 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.4% | .284 | 3.34 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 97 | -0.24 | 1.32 | 182 | 76 |
| Sam Freeman L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.23 | 23.4% | 14.6% | 2.3% | .265 | 3.53 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 166 | -0.70 | 3.03 | 299 | 76 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.84 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.9% | .267 | 3.21 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.63 | 2.44 | 124 | 76 |
| Dan Runzler L 2028 · 3.77 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.77 | 19.0% | 13.1% | 1.1% | .383 | 4.24 | 16.5% | 4.0% | 63 | +0.47 | 3.77 | 127 | 76 |