Justin King
P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | G | GS | IP | ERA | FIP | K% | BB% | WAR | MLE rates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26 | AAMIA | 36 | 0 | 37 | 6.08 | 2.40 | 36.5% | 10.7% | — | K 29.5% · BB 11.8% · FIP 3.26 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX2 levels | 31 | 0 | 33 | 3.55 | 4.04 | 25.9% | 18.4% | — | K 19.9% · BB 20.5% · FIP 4.46 |
| 2026 | 28 | MIX2 levels | 39 | 0 | 47 | 5.17 | 3.27 | 31.1% | 18.0% | — | K 24.4% · BB 17.5% · FIP 3.93 |
| 2027PROJ | 29 | MLBMIA | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4.87 | 4.87 | 23.9% | 16.4% | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ37% MLB | 30 | MLBMIA | 6 | 0 | 6 | 4.92 | 5.00 | 23.5% | 16.0% | -0.0 |
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 24 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 10 | 0 | 8 | 40 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.8 | 27.5% | 12.5% | 15.0% | 0.0% | 5.40 | 2.36 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 10 | 0 | 8 | 40 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.8 | 27.5% | 12.5% | 15.0% | 0.0% | 5.40 | 2.26 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 28 | 0 | 31 | 140 | 54 | 24 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.7% | 19.7% | 10.0% | 0.9% | 2.93 | 3.56 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ RAW | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 28 | 0 | 31 | 140 | 54 | 24 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 38.6% | 17.1% | 21.4% | 0.7% | 2.93 | 2.35 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 36 | 0 | 37 | 159 | 58 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.5% | 11.8% | 17.8% | 2.1% | 6.08 | 3.26 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 36 | 0 | 37 | 159 | 58 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.5% | 11.8% | 17.8% | 2.1% | 6.08 | 3.26 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA RAW | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 36 | 0 | 37 | 159 | 58 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 36.5% | 10.7% | 25.8% | 1.9% | 6.08 | 2.40 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 31 | 0 | 33 | 158 | 41 | 29 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 20.5% | -0.6% | 0.8% | 3.55 | 4.46 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 31 | 0 | 33 | 158 | 41 | 29 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 20.5% | -0.6% | 0.8% | 3.55 | 4.46 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 31 | 0 | 33 | 158 | 41 | 29 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.9% | 18.4% | 7.6% | 1.3% | 3.55 | 4.04 | — |
| 2026 | 28 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 47 | 222 | 69 | 40 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.4% | 17.5% | 6.9% | 1.2% | 5.17 | 3.93 | — |
| 2026 | 28 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 47 | 222 | 69 | 40 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.4% | 17.5% | 6.9% | 1.2% | 5.17 | 3.93 | — |
| 2026 | 28 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 47 | 222 | 69 | 40 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 31.1% | 18.0% | 13.1% | 0.9% | 5.17 | 3.27 | — |
| ▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 16.4% | 7.4% | 2.4% | 4.87 | 4.87 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | MIA | 15 | 0 | 16 | 68 | 16 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 16.0% | 7.5% | 2.7% | 4.92 | 5.00 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | MIA | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 16.0% | 7.5% | 2.7% | 4.92 | 5.00 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | RAW | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 16.0% | 7.5% | 2.7% | 4.92 | 4.62 | -0.0 | |
| / 200 IP | — | RAW | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 203 | 135 | 34 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 16.0% | 7.5% | 2.7% | 4.92 | 4.62 | -0.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | 144 | 0 | 156 | 719 | 185 | 123 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.8% | 17.0% | 8.7% | 1.2% | 4.62 | 3.74 | -0.1 | |
| / 200 IP | — | MLE | 185 | 0 | 200 | 922 | 237 | 157 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.8% | 17.0% | 8.7% | 1.2% | 4.62 | 3.74 | -1.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 37 IPFIP 3.78 → 3.93 (+0.15)K% 28.3% → 24.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 28.33% | — | ×0.860 | 24.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 19.44% | — | ×0.900 | 17.50% |
| HR / BF /BF | 1.11% | ÷1.000 | ×1.100 | 1.22% |
Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).
Result: FIP 3.78 → 3.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 10 IPFIP 0.99 → 1.83 (+0.84)K% 42.9% → 34.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 42.86% | — | ×0.810 | 34.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 11.90% | — | ×1.100 | 13.10% |
| HR / BF /BF | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | 0.00% |
Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).
Result: FIP 0.99 → 1.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 28 IPFIP 3.79 → 4.46 (+0.67)K% 24.6% → 19.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 24.63% | — | ×0.810 | 19.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 18.66% | — | ×1.100 | 20.52% |
| HR / BF /BF | 0.75% | ÷1.103 | ×1.200 | 0.81% |
Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 121).
Result: FIP 3.79 → 4.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 5 IPFIP 4.68 → 5.37 (+0.68)K% 33.3% → 28.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 33.33% | — | ×0.860 | 28.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 16.67% | — | ×0.900 | 15.00% |
| HR / BF /BF | 4.17% | ÷0.903 | ×1.100 | 5.08% |
Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 81).
Result: FIP 4.68 → 5.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 37 IPFIP 2.41 → 3.26 (+0.85)K% 36.5% → 29.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 36.48% | — | ×0.810 | 29.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 10.69% | — | ×1.100 | 11.76% |
| HR / BF /BF | 1.89% | ÷1.064 | ×1.200 | 2.13% |
Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 113).
Result: FIP 2.41 → 3.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 31 IPFIP 2.41 → 3.56 (+1.16)K% 38.6% → 29.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 38.57% | — | ×0.770 | 29.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 17.14% | — | ×1.150 | 19.71% |
| HR / BF /BF | 0.71% | ÷1.033 | ×1.250 | 0.86% |
Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).
Result: FIP 2.41 → 3.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 4 IPFIP 3.30 → 3.94 (+0.64)K% 19.0% → 14.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 19.05% | — | ×0.770 | 14.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 14.29% | — | ×1.150 | 16.43% |
| HR / BF /BF | 0.00% | ÷0.885 | ×1.250 | 0.00% |
Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 77).
Result: FIP 3.30 → 3.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).