Justin King — OGILVIE

Justin King P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 28 LHP 6'1" / 215 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 18 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111119vR 127

ERA4.94

FIP4.94

K%23.8%

BB%16.1%

K-BB%7.7%

ROS IP18

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	0	8	40	11	5	0	0%	0.8	27.5%	12.5%	15.0%	0.0%	5.40	2.36	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	0	8	40	11	5	0	0%	0.8	27.5%	12.5%	15.0%	0.0%	5.40	2.26	—
2023	25	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	28	0	31	140	54	24	1	0%	1.1	29.7%	19.7%	10.0%	0.9%	2.93	3.56	—
2023	25	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	28	0	31	140	54	24	1	0%	1.1	29.7%	19.7%	10.0%	0.9%	2.93	3.56	—
2023	25	A+ RAW	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	28	0	31	140	54	24	1	0%	1.1	38.6%	17.1%	21.4%	0.7%	2.93	2.35	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	36	0	37	159	58	17	3	0%	1.0	29.5%	11.8%	17.8%	2.1%	6.08	3.26	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	36	0	37	159	58	17	3	0%	1.0	29.5%	11.8%	17.8%	2.1%	6.08	3.26	—
2024	26	AA RAW	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	36	0	37	159	58	17	3	0%	1.0	36.5%	10.7%	25.8%	1.9%	6.08	2.40	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	33	158	41	29	2	0%	1.1	19.9%	20.5%	-0.6%	0.8%	3.55	4.46	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	33	158	41	29	2	0%	1.1	19.9%	20.5%	-0.6%	0.8%	3.55	4.46	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	0	33	158	41	29	2	0%	1.1	25.9%	18.4%	7.6%	1.3%	3.55	4.04	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	37	0	44	207	65	35	2	0%	1.2	23.6%	16.4%	7.3%	1.3%	5.08	3.91	—
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	37	0	44	207	65	35	2	0%	1.2	23.6%	16.4%	7.3%	1.3%	5.08	3.91	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AA RAW	MIA	7	0	10	42	18	5	0	0%	1.4	42.9%	11.9%	31.0%	0.0%	2.70	0.99	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	MIA	30	0	34	165	47	30	2	0%	1.1	28.5%	18.2%	10.3%	1.2%	5.77	3.66	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	MIA	19	0	20	84	20	13	2	0%	1.1	23.6%	15.6%	7.9%	2.8%	4.95	5.01	-0.1
2027	29	MLB CTX	MIA	7	0	7	30	7	5	1	0%	1.0	23.6%	15.6%	7.9%	2.8%	4.95	5.01	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	7	5	1	0%	1.1	23.6%	15.6%	7.9%	2.8%	4.95	4.63	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	190	136	27	0%	1.1	23.6%	15.6%	7.9%	2.8%	4.95	4.63	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		142	0	153	704	180	118	9	0%	1.1	25.6%	16.7%	8.9%	1.2%	4.58	3.73	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		185	0	200	918	235	153	11	0%	1.1	25.6%	16.7%	8.9%	1.2%	4.58	3.73	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin King (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.94	23.8%	16.1%	2.6%	—	5.01	23.6%	7.9%	20	+0.07	—	—	—
Jake Rice L 2023 · 4.41 FIP	26	SU	4.41	23.4%	18.1%	1.8%	.305	4.90	18.7%	4.0%	103	+0.49	3.16	199	79
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	79
Rex Brothers L 2015 · 4.05 FIP	27	SU	4.05	27.2%	23.5%	0.5%	.286	4.05	26.4%	9.1%	64	+0.00	3.10	205	77
Aaron Brown L 2019 · 4.04 FIP	27	SU	4.04	22.9%	13.5%	2.1%	.317	4.77	19.4%	6.7%	129	+0.73	4.04	269	77
Trey Jeans L 2022 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	22.3%	16.5%	3.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.74	111	77
Sam Freeman L 2015 · 4.21 FIP	28	SU	4.21	23.4%	14.6%	2.2%	.265	3.52	22.0%	10.3%	166	-0.69	3.03	299	76
Braulio Lara L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	28	SU	5.80	19.8%	17.8%	3.9%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	118	76
Trevor Lane L 2022 · 4.05 FIP	28	SU	4.05	22.2%	12.7%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	246	76
Adam Loewen L 2015 · 3.84 FIP	31	SU	3.84	25.1%	15.9%	1.6%	.287	3.63	23.2%	7.3%	98	-0.21	2.96	176	75
Josh Osich L 2017 · 5.00 FIP	28	SU	5.00	21.4%	12.9%	3.8%	.328	4.47	21.1%	14.1%	143	-0.53	3.41	315	75
Jeremy Horst L 2015 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	18.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.291	3.71	15.1%	2.7%	48	-0.38	3.71	108	75
Dan Runzler L 2015 · 3.78 FIP	30	SU	3.78	19.0%	13.1%	1.2%	.383	4.07	16.5%	4.0%	63	+0.29	3.78	127	75
Jack Leathersich L 2018 · 4.55 FIP	28	SU	4.55	21.7%	19.8%	1.4%	.224	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	101	74
Trey Cumbie L 2022 · 5.07 FIP	26	SU	5.07	23.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.215	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	152	74
James Reeves L 2021 · 5.11 FIP	28	SU	5.11	27.0%	16.2%	4.1%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	2.02	280	72
Mike Dunn L 2015 · 3.75 FIP	30	SU	3.75	27.7%	11.9%	2.7%	.294	4.21	22.5%	10.9%	110	+0.46	3.71	181	72
Ashur Tolliver L 2016 · 4.19 FIP	28	SU	4.19	21.3%	9.8%	3.0%	.308	5.03	13.8%	-5.1%	35	+0.84	3.49	134	72
Jeff Ibarra L 2016 · 3.75 FIP	28	SU	3.75	17.8%	9.7%	1.7%	.321	3.29	19.2%	13.8%	66	-0.46	2.85	101	72
Travis Bergen L 2022 · 4.93 FIP	28	SU	4.93	19.3%	20.5%	1.6%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	143	71
Zac Rosscup L 2015 · 4.84 FIP	27	SU	4.84	24.6%	11.0%	4.4%	.296	2.85	29.5%	21.7%	40	-1.99	2.56	160	71