Tristan Garnett — OGILVIE

Tristan Garnett P Reading Fightin Phils

Age 28 LHP 6'6" / 240 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 18 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100108vR 116

ERA4.36

FIP4.36

K%25.2%

BB%12.5%

K-BB%12.8%

ROS IP18

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	7	0	12	62	14	6	2	0%	1.8	15.4%	12.1%	3.3%	4.5%	6.57	5.81	—
2021	23	ROK RAW	FCL Phillies	7	0	12	62	14	6	2	0%	1.8	22.6%	9.7%	12.9%	3.2%	6.57	4.40	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	0	35	136	49	5	2	0%	1.5	28.7%	4.3%	24.4%	2.3%	1.80	2.50	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	0	35	136	49	5	2	0%	1.5	36.0%	3.7%	32.4%	1.5%	1.80	1.47	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	51	205	56	18	2	0%	1.1	21.4%	10.0%	11.4%	1.4%	1.94	3.34	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	51	205	56	18	2	0%	1.1	21.4%	10.0%	11.4%	1.4%	1.94	3.34	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	51	205	56	18	2	0%	1.1	27.3%	8.8%	18.5%	1.0%	1.94	2.47	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	0	41	180	56	26	2	0%	1.2	24.4%	15.9%	8.5%	1.3%	2.63	3.75	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	0	41	180	56	26	2	0%	1.2	24.4%	15.9%	8.5%	1.3%	2.63	3.75	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	34	0	41	180	56	26	2	0%	1.2	31.1%	14.4%	16.7%	1.1%	2.63	2.90	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	0	31	136	44	15	1	0%	1.2	27.5%	12.1%	15.4%	1.1%	2.03	2.90	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	0	31	136	44	15	1	0%	1.2	27.5%	12.1%	15.4%	1.1%	2.03	2.90	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	0	31	136	44	15	1	0%	1.2	32.4%	11.0%	21.3%	0.7%	2.03	2.13	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	36	0	42	197	42	27	5	0%	1.2	17.6%	13.2%	4.4%	3.4%	6.05	5.17	—
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	36	0	42	197	42	27	5	0%	1.2	17.6%	13.2%	4.4%	3.4%	6.05	5.17	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AA RAW	PHI	32	0	38	175	38	21	5	0%	1.2	21.7%	12.0%	9.7%	2.9%	5.17	4.35	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	PHI	4	0	3	22	4	6	0	0%	0.8	18.2%	27.3%	-9.1%	0.0%	16.20	5.02	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	PHI	19	0	20	84	21	10	2	0%	1.1	24.8%	12.4%	12.4%	2.8%	4.43	4.48	+0.0
2027	29	MLB CTX	PHI	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	24.8%	12.4%	12.4%	2.8%	4.43	4.48	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	7	3	1	0%	1.0	24.8%	12.4%	12.4%	2.8%	4.43	4.10	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	224	96	32	0%	1.1	24.8%	12.4%	12.4%	2.8%	4.43	4.10	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		171	0	212	916	208	105	19	0%	1.2	22.7%	11.5%	11.3%	2.1%	3.14	3.79	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		161	0	200	864	197	99	18	0%	1.2	22.7%	11.5%	11.3%	2.1%	3.14	3.79	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tristan Garnett (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.36	25.2%	12.5%	2.6%	—	4.48	24.8%	12.4%	20	+0.12	—	—	—
Jake Diekman L 2015 · 3.38 FIP	28	SU	3.38	26.5%	11.9%	1.8%	.310	3.25	27.0%	15.3%	106	-0.13	2.36	455	83
Edward Paredes L 2016 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	24.1%	13.0%	1.4%	.225	3.55	23.7%	14.0%	86	+0.08	2.36	130	83
Dario Alvarez L 2017 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	24.7%	12.4%	2.0%	.336	3.47	20.7%	8.3%	27	-0.21	3.47	160	82
Mike Dunn L 2015 · 3.75 FIP	30	SU	3.75	27.7%	11.9%	2.7%	.294	4.21	22.5%	10.9%	110	+0.46	3.71	181	81
Ashur Tolliver L 2016 · 4.19 FIP	28	SU	4.19	21.3%	9.8%	3.0%	.308	5.03	13.8%	-5.1%	35	+0.84	3.49	134	79
Kevin Chapman L 2016 · 3.35 FIP	28	SU	3.35	23.2%	9.5%	1.8%	.348	4.08	19.2%	8.0%	39	+0.73	3.01	153	79
Josh Edgin L 2016 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	22.1%	13.2%	1.3%	.359	3.81	23.2%	13.6%	80	+0.17	3.63	113	78
Aaron Brown L 2019 · 4.04 FIP	27	SU	4.04	22.9%	13.5%	2.1%	.317	4.77	19.4%	6.7%	129	+0.73	4.04	269	78
Trevor Lane L 2022 · 4.05 FIP	28	SU	4.05	22.2%	12.7%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	246	77
Zac Rosscup L 2015 · 4.84 FIP	27	SU	4.84	24.6%	11.0%	4.4%	.296	2.85	29.5%	21.7%	40	-1.99	2.56	160	77
Jeremy Horst L 2015 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	18.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.291	3.71	15.1%	2.7%	48	-0.38	3.71	108	76
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	76
Adam Liberatore L 2015 · 3.64 FIP	28	SU	3.64	21.1%	7.3%	2.5%	.267	3.17	23.3%	15.2%	73	-0.47	2.38	124	75
Josh Smoker L 2017 · 4.20 FIP	28	SU	4.20	25.5%	9.4%	3.8%	.329	4.35	20.2%	11.3%	59	+0.15	2.71	230	75
Jeff Ibarra L 2016 · 3.75 FIP	28	SU	3.75	17.8%	9.7%	1.7%	.321	3.29	19.2%	13.8%	66	-0.46	2.85	101	75
Josh Osich L 2017 · 5.00 FIP	28	SU	5.00	21.4%	12.9%	3.8%	.328	4.47	21.1%	14.1%	143	-0.53	3.41	315	75
Kevin Siegrist L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	28	SU	3.95	25.0%	11.6%	2.7%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	2.72	176	75
Jeff Beliveau L 2016 · 3.19 FIP	29	SU	3.19	26.2%	13.5%	1.1%	.220	4.25	24.7%	12.5%	92	+1.06	3.19	137	75
Tommy Layne L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	30	SU	3.61	21.7%	12.1%	1.5%	.284	3.34	20.2%	11.0%	97	-0.27	1.32	182	74
Sam Freeman L 2015 · 4.21 FIP	28	SU	4.21	23.4%	14.6%	2.2%	.265	3.52	22.0%	10.3%	166	-0.69	3.03	299	74