Keylan Killgore — OGILVIE

Keylan Killgore P Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 29 LHP 6'3" / 185 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 105114vR 122

ERA4.66

FIP4.66

K%23.7%

BB%12.6%

K-BB%11.1%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 3 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	21	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0%	0.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2018	21	A RAW	Lakewood BlueClaws	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0%	0.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2019	22	A+ MLE	Clearwater Threshers	36	0	53	227	61	25	4	0%	1.5	20.7%	12.7%	8.0%	2.3%	3.57	4.23	—
2019	22	A+ RAW	Clearwater Threshers	36	0	53	227	61	25	4	0%	1.5	26.9%	11.0%	15.9%	1.8%	3.57	3.19	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	10	0	11	47	12	3	1	0%	1.1	25.5%	6.4%	19.1%	2.1%	5.91	2.92	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	10	0	11	47	12	3	1	0%	1.1	25.5%	6.4%	19.1%	2.1%	5.91	2.91	—
2023	26	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	46	0	55	250	67	28	9	0%	1.2	21.7%	12.3%	9.4%	4.1%	5.20	5.09	—
2023	26	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	46	0	55	250	67	28	9	0%	1.2	21.7%	12.3%	9.4%	4.1%	5.20	5.09	—
2023	26	AA RAW	Reading Fightin Phils	46	0	55	250	67	28	9	0%	1.2	26.8%	11.2%	15.6%	3.6%	5.20	4.31	—
2024	27	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	39	0	53	234	71	30	3	0%	1.4	24.6%	14.1%	10.5%	1.7%	5.60	3.73	—
2024	27	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	39	0	53	234	71	30	3	0%	1.4	24.6%	14.1%	10.5%	1.7%	5.60	3.73	—
2024	27	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	39	0	53	234	71	30	3	0%	1.4	30.3%	12.8%	17.5%	1.3%	5.60	2.85	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	KC	3	0	3	13	3	2	0	0%	1.0	23.7%	12.6%	11.1%	2.9%	4.66	4.66	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	KC	33	0	35	146	34	18	5	0%	1.0	23.3%	12.6%	10.8%	3.1%	4.73	4.80	-0.1
2027	30	MLB CTX	KC	10	0	11	46	11	6	1	0%	1.1	23.3%	12.6%	10.8%	3.1%	4.73	4.80	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	11	46	11	6	1	0%	1.1	23.3%	12.6%	10.8%	3.1%	4.73	4.42	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	203	111	18	0%	1.1	23.3%	12.6%	10.8%	3.1%	4.73	4.42	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		132	0	173	760	171	96	20	0%	1.3	22.5%	12.6%	9.9%	2.7%	4.85	4.27	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		153	0	200	880	198	111	24	0%	1.3	22.5%	12.6%	9.9%	2.7%	4.85	4.27	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Keylan Killgore (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.66	23.7%	12.6%	2.9%	—	4.80	23.3%	10.8%	35	+0.14	—	—	—
Edward Paredes L 2016 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	24.1%	13.0%	1.4%	.225	3.55	23.7%	14.0%	86	+0.08	2.36	130	84
Jeremy Horst L 2015 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	18.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.291	3.71	15.1%	2.7%	48	-0.38	3.71	108	83
Mike Dunn L 2015 · 3.75 FIP	30	SU	3.75	27.7%	11.9%	2.7%	.294	4.21	22.5%	10.9%	110	+0.46	3.71	181	82
Josh Edgin L 2016 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	22.1%	13.2%	1.3%	.359	3.81	23.2%	13.6%	80	+0.17	3.63	113	80
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	79
Keith Hessler L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	29	SU	4.96	19.8%	13.3%	3.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	228	78
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	78
Adam Loewen L 2015 · 3.84 FIP	31	SU	3.84	25.1%	15.9%	1.6%	.287	3.63	23.2%	7.3%	98	-0.21	2.96	176	78
Tommy Layne L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	30	SU	3.61	21.7%	12.1%	1.5%	.284	3.34	20.2%	11.0%	97	-0.27	1.32	182	77
Sammy Solís L 2018 · 4.39 FIP	29	SU	4.39	24.9%	9.6%	4.0%	.330	4.05	26.2%	17.3%	23	-0.34	2.51	190	76
Josh Smoker L 2018 · 3.66 FIP	29	SU	3.66	22.1%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	6.58	14.2%	3.4%	14	+2.92	2.71	230	76
Dan Runzler L 2015 · 3.78 FIP	30	SU	3.78	19.0%	13.1%	1.2%	.383	4.07	16.5%	4.0%	63	+0.29	3.78	127	76
Jose Meraz L 2017 · 4.34 FIP	29	SU	4.34	16.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.282	3.80	10.5%	-2.0%	30	-0.54	3.78	110	75
Kyle Regnault L 2018 · 3.82 FIP	29	SU	3.82	27.6%	9.7%	3.3%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	204	74
Buddy Boshers L 2017 · 4.56 FIP	29	SU	4.56	18.9%	8.0%	3.7%	.300	3.47	24.1%	15.6%	112	-1.09	2.80	223	74
Dario Alvarez L 2018 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	20.7%	12.4%	1.0%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.47	160	74
Jeff Ibarra L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	18.1%	7.0%	2.1%	.342	2.85	20.6%	17.2%	29	-0.79	2.85	101	73
Kevin Siegrist L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	28	SU	3.95	25.0%	11.6%	2.7%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	2.72	176	73
Sam Moll L 2021 · 4.62 FIP	29	SU	4.62	26.5%	13.5%	3.8%	.310	2.95	25.1%	16.8%	143	-1.67	2.38	507	73
Aaron Brown L 2021 · 4.13 FIP	29	SU	4.13	17.4%	12.8%	1.6%	.275	5.38	21.3%	8.8%	66	+1.25	4.04	269	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	36	23.5%	12.6%	1.16	4.69
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10