Keylan Killgore

P Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 30 LHP 6'3" / 185 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	25	MIX3 levels	10	0	11	5.91	2.91	25.5%	6.4%	—	K 25.5% · BB 6.4% · FIP 2.92
2023	26	AAPHI	46	0	55	5.20	4.31	26.8%	11.2%	—	K 21.7% · BB 12.3% · FIP 5.09
2024	27	AANorthwest Ark…	39	0	53	5.60	2.85	30.3%	12.8%	—	K 24.6% · BB 14.1% · FIP 3.73
2025	28	No MLB games played
2026	29	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	30	MLBKC	1	0	1	4.52	4.52	23.9%	11.4%	0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	31	MLBKC	9	0	9	4.62	4.70	23.4%	11.5%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsRaul Valdes (age 32) · Clay Rapada (age 30) · Brian Moran (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103111vR 119

ERA4.52

FIP4.52

K%23.9%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%12.5%

Proj IP36

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	21	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0%	0.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2018	21	A RAW	Lakewood BlueClaws	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0%	0.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2019	22	A+ MLE	Clearwater Threshers	36	0	53	227	61	25	4	0%	1.5	20.7%	12.7%	8.0%	2.3%	3.57	4.23	—
2019	22	A+ RAW	Clearwater Threshers	36	0	53	227	61	25	4	0%	1.5	26.9%	11.0%	15.9%	1.8%	3.57	3.19	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	10	0	11	47	12	3	1	0%	1.1	25.5%	6.4%	19.1%	2.1%	5.91	2.92	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	10	0	11	47	12	3	1	0%	1.1	25.5%	6.4%	19.1%	2.1%	5.91	2.91	—
2023	26	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	46	0	55	250	67	28	9	0%	1.2	21.7%	12.3%	9.4%	4.1%	5.20	5.09	—
2023	26	AA RAW	Reading Fightin Phils	46	0	55	250	67	28	9	0%	1.2	26.8%	11.2%	15.6%	3.6%	5.20	4.31	—
2024	27	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	39	0	53	234	71	30	3	0%	1.4	24.6%	14.1%	10.5%	1.7%	5.60	3.73	—
2024	27	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	39	0	53	234	71	30	3	0%	1.4	24.6%	14.1%	10.5%	1.7%	5.60	3.73	—
2024	27	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	39	0	53	234	71	30	3	0%	1.4	30.3%	12.8%	17.5%	1.3%	5.60	2.85	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	KC	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	23.9%	11.4%	12.5%	2.9%	4.52	4.52	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	KC	28	0	29	122	29	14	4	0%	1.0	23.4%	11.5%	11.9%	3.2%	4.62	4.70	-0.0
2028	31	MLB CTX	KC	9	0	9	38	9	4	1	0%	1.0	23.4%	11.5%	11.9%	3.2%	4.62	4.70	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	9	38	9	4	1	0%	1.0	23.4%	11.5%	11.9%	3.2%	4.62	4.32	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	199	88	22	0%	1.1	23.4%	11.5%	11.9%	3.2%	4.62	4.32	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		132	0	173	760	171	96	20	0%	1.3	22.5%	12.6%	9.9%	2.7%	4.85	4.27	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		153	0	200	880	198	111	24	0%	1.3	22.5%	12.6%	9.9%	2.7%	4.85	4.27	-0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 53 IPFIP 2.87 → 3.73 (+0.86)K% 30.3% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.34%	—	×0.810	24.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.82%	—	×1.100	14.10%
HR / BF /BF	1.28%	÷0.920	×1.200	1.67%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 84).

Result: FIP 2.87 → 3.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAReading Fightin Phils · 55 IPFIP 4.23 → 5.09 (+0.85)K% 26.8% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.80%	—	×0.810	21.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.20%	—	×1.100	12.32%
HR / BF /BF	3.60%	÷1.050	×1.200	4.11%

Result: FIP 4.23 → 5.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AClearwater Threshers · 6 IPFIP 1.38 → 2.03 (+0.65)K% 25.9% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.93%	—	×0.740	19.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.70%	—	×1.180	4.37%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.38 → 2.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Clearwater Threshers · 53 IPFIP 3.19 → 4.23 (+1.04)K% 26.9% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.87%	—	×0.770	20.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.01%	—	×1.150	12.67%
HR / BF /BF	1.76%	÷0.949	×1.250	2.32%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 3.19 → 4.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Keylan Killgore (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.52	23.9%	11.4%	2.9%	—	4.70	23.4%	11.9%	29	+0.18	—	—	—
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	88
Clay Rapada L 2011 · 4.34 FIP	30	SU	4.34	26.1%	10.1%	3.9%	.268	3.00	24.5%	14.2%	38	-1.34	3.00	120	79
Brian Moran L 2019 · 3.40 FIP	30	SU	3.40	26.9%	10.0%	2.4%	.269	2.99	25.5%	18.5%	99	-0.41	1.80	421	78
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	77
Nick Hagadone L 2015 · 3.65 FIP	29	SU	3.65	22.6%	8.9%	2.4%	.329	3.74	22.6%	13.3%	33	+0.09	2.97	141	77
Yuki Matsui L 2024 · 3.63 FIP	28	SU	3.63	26.8%	8.9%	3.0%	.242	4.25	23.9%	12.6%	140	+0.62	3.63	203	76
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	75
Jeff Ibarra L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	18.1%	7.0%	2.1%	.342	2.85	20.6%	17.2%	29	-0.79	2.85	101	75
Kyle Regnault L 2018 · 3.82 FIP	29	SU	3.82	27.6%	9.7%	3.3%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	204	74
Keith Hessler L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	29	SU	4.96	19.8%	13.3%	3.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	228	74
Cory Luebke L 2016 · 3.88 FIP	31	SU	3.88	26.4%	9.1%	3.4%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	216	74
Arturo Barradas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	29	SU	3.42	18.1%	7.0%	1.8%	.288	3.24	16.1%	9.5%	34	-0.18	3.24	163	74
Armando Almanza L 2003 · 4.95 FIP	30	SU	4.95	21.3%	10.0%	4.3%	.331	5.29	24.1%	14.8%	12	+0.34	2.90	211	73
James Jones L 2019 · 4.28 FIP	30	SU	4.28	21.9%	13.0%	2.5%	.230	4.65	23.9%	8.8%	35	+0.37	3.58	127	73
Ryan Buchter L 2017 · 4.45 FIP	30	SU	4.45	24.3%	9.3%	4.0%	.202	4.19	25.3%	15.6%	85	-0.26	2.37	296	73
Jack Taschner L 2008 · 4.09 FIP	30	SU	4.09	17.2%	9.7%	2.2%	.323	4.73	15.2%	3.0%	49	+0.64	3.14	189	73
Jose Meraz L 2017 · 4.34 FIP	29	SU	4.34	16.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.282	3.80	10.5%	-2.0%	30	-0.54	3.78	110	73
Buddy Baumann L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	30	SU	4.87	20.5%	11.9%	3.6%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	155	72
Aaron Brown L 2022 · 5.38 FIP	30	SU	5.38	21.3%	12.5%	4.5%	.253	—	—	—	—	—	4.04	269	72
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	32	23.7%	11.5%	1.18	4.56
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*