Keylan Killgore
P
Northwest Arkansas Naturals
Age 29
LHP
6'3" / 185 lbs
AA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 36 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101111vR 120
ERA4.44
FIP4.44
K%23.5%
BB%10.7%
K-BB%12.8%
ROS IP37
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | A | Lakewood BlueClaws | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.10 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A | Lakewood BlueClaws | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.10 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Clearwater Threshers | 36 | 0 | 53 | 227 | 61 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 8.0% | 2.5% | 3.57 | 4.30 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Clearwater Threshers | 36 | 0 | 53 | 227 | 61 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 26.9% | 11.0% | 15.9% | 1.8% | 3.57 | 3.19 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 10 | 0 | 11 | 47 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.5% | 6.4% | 19.1% | 2.1% | 5.91 | 2.92 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 10 | 0 | 11 | 47 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.5% | 6.4% | 19.1% | 2.1% | 5.91 | 2.91 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 46 | 0 | 55 | 250 | 67 | 28 | 9 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.7% | 12.3% | 9.4% | 3.9% | 5.20 | 4.98 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 46 | 0 | 55 | 250 | 67 | 28 | 9 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.8% | 11.2% | 15.6% | 3.6% | 5.20 | 4.31 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 39 | 0 | 53 | 234 | 71 | 30 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 24.6% | 14.1% | 10.5% | 1.8% | 5.60 | 3.82 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 39 | 0 | 53 | 234 | 71 | 30 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 30.3% | 12.8% | 17.5% | 1.3% | 5.60 | 2.85 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | KC | 35 | 0 | 37 | 155 | 37 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 10.7% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | KC | 33 | 0 | 35 | 146 | 34 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 10.8% | 12.3% | 3.1% | 4.53 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | KC | 10 | 0 | 11 | 46 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 10.8% | 12.3% | 3.1% | 4.53 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 10 | 0 | 11 | 46 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 10.8% | 12.3% | 3.1% | 4.53 | 4.22 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 203 | 92 | 18 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 10.8% | 12.3% | 3.1% | 4.53 | 4.22 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 132 | 0 | 173 | 760 | 171 | 96 | 21 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.5% | 12.6% | 9.9% | 2.7% | 4.85 | 4.29 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 153 | 0 | 200 | 880 | 198 | 111 | 24 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.5% | 12.6% | 9.9% | 2.7% | 4.85 | 4.29 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Keylan Killgore (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 23.5% | 10.7% | 2.9% | — | 4.60 | 23.2% | 12.3% | 35 | +0.16 | — | — | — |
| Jeremy Horst L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.06 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.73 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.33 | 3.73 | 108 | 82 |
| Mike Dunn L 2027 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.09 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.33 | 3.72 | 181 | 82 |
| Edward Paredes L 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.49 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .225 | 3.53 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 86 | +0.04 | 2.29 | 130 | 82 |
| Josh Smoker L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.84 | 22.1% | 8.4% | 2.8% | .318 | 6.37 | 14.2% | 3.4% | 14 | +2.53 | 2.66 | 230 | 82 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.82 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 4.0% | .253 | 4.48 | 23.7% | 12.6% | 46 | -0.34 | 3.80 | 172 | 81 |
| Sammy Solís L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 24.9% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .330 | 4.16 | 26.2% | 17.3% | 23 | -0.23 | 2.51 | 190 | 81 |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.25 | 26.7% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .241 | 3.03 | 28.6% | 15.8% | 115 | -0.22 | 2.33 | 455 | 81 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.83 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 175 | 79 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2025 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 79 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.73 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 2.3% | .342 | 2.95 | 20.6% | 17.2% | 29 | -0.78 | 2.95 | 101 | 78 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.56 | 18.9% | 8.0% | 3.7% | .300 | 3.44 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 112 | -1.12 | 2.81 | 223 | 78 |
| Kevin Siegrist L 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.00 | 25.0% | 11.6% | 2.8% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.67 | 176 | 78 |
| Arturo Barradas L 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.45 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .288 | 3.17 | 16.1% | 9.5% | 34 | -0.28 | 3.17 | 163 | 77 |
| Kyle Regnault L 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.81 | 27.6% | 9.7% | 3.3% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 204 | 77 |
| Scott Alexander L 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.38 | 20.9% | 9.3% | 1.6% | .290 | 4.81 | 13.3% | 5.0% | 45 | +1.43 | 2.90 | 414 | 77 |
| Josh Edgin L 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 22.1% | 13.2% | 1.2% | .359 | 3.67 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 80 | +0.09 | 3.36 | 113 | 77 |
| Keith Hessler L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.73 | 19.8% | 13.3% | 3.0% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 228 | 76 |
| Tommy Layne L 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.58 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.4% | .284 | 3.34 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 97 | -0.24 | 1.32 | 182 | 76 |
| Jose Meraz L 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.51 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .282 | 3.80 | 10.5% | -2.0% | 30 | -0.71 | 3.59 | 110 | 75 |
| Chasen Shreve L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.98 | 24.4% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .269 | 4.53 | 23.9% | 13.0% | 108 | +0.55 | 3.94 | 470 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 36 | 23.4% | 10.8% | 1.16 | 4.48 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |