Yuki Matsui
P
El Paso Chihuahuas
+0.2
WAR
Age 30
LHP
5'8" / 165 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.22
FIP4.46
xFIP4.94
SIERA4.47
K%23.7%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%13.5%
IP61
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
STUF6060
CTRL3535
CMD4545
K†5555
FB Velo
p1692.1
Whiff%
p8230.3%
K%
p5122.4%
xwOBA vs
p490.313
SL+4.2 (27%)
SI (2%)
FB-2.2 (41%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 64 | 0 | 63 | 257 | 69 | 23 | 8 | 26.8% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 3.73 | 3.52 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 61 | 0 | 63 | 272 | 61 | 31 | 10 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 3.3% | 3.98 | 4.44 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 5 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.80 | — | — |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | SD | 11 | 11 | 61 | 258 | 60 | 29 | 8 | 23.4% | 11.1% | 3.1% | 4.22 | 4.63 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 30 | MLB | SD | — | — | 66 | 280 | 65 | 30 | 8 | 23.3% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.04 | 4.28 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | SD | 59 | — | 59 | 250 | 57 | 28 | 8 | 22.8% | 11.2% | 3.2% | 4.53 | 4.73 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | SD | 57 | — | 57 | 239 | 53 | 27 | 8 | 22.2% | 11.3% | 3.3% | 4.72 | 4.85 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | SD | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 49 | 26 | 8 | 21.5% | 11.5% | 3.4% | 4.87 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | SD | 51 | — | 51 | 217 | 45 | 25 | 8 | 20.8% | 11.7% | 3.5% | 5.02 | 5.12 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | SD | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 41 | 24 | 7 | 20.1% | 11.9% | 3.6% | 5.17 | 5.27 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | SD | 45 | — | 45 | 191 | 37 | 23 | 7 | 19.3% | 12.2% | 3.7% | 5.33 | 5.43 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 130 | 0 | 131 | 551 | 135 | 55 | 16 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 3.78 | 3.90 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 198 | 0 | 200 | 841 | 206 | 84 | 24 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 3.78 | 3.90 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Yuki Matsui (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.63 | 23.4% | 11.1% | 3.1% | — | 4.85 | 22.2% | 10.8% | 170 | +0.22 | — | — | — |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.77 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.21 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.44 | 3.70 | 181 | 80 |
| Antonio Bastardo L 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.54 | 24.9% | 9.8% | 4.2% | .268 | 7.97 | 15.0% | -1.4% | 20 | +3.43 | 2.98 | 145 | 78 |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.73 | 20.7% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .271 | 3.03 | 21.8% | 17.1% | 88 | -0.70 | 2.38 | 306 | 77 |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.33 | 19.1% | 9.0% | 3.1% | .245 | 3.85 | 16.6% | 8.5% | 64 | -0.48 | 3.06 | 244 | 77 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.68 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 175 | 76 |
| Brandon Mann L 2028 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 3.99 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.74 | 3.59 | 190 | 76 |
| Jeff Beliveau L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.43 | 25.2% | 11.3% | 3.7% | .261 | 3.85 | 23.3% | 8.9% | 26 | -0.58 | 3.19 | 137 | 75 |
| Tommy Layne L 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.64 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.6% | .284 | 3.27 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 97 | -0.37 | 1.32 | 182 | 74 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2027 · 4.08 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.08 | 22.1% | 14.3% | 1.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.09 | 145 | 73 |
| Adam Loewen L 2027 · 3.84 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.84 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 1.5% | .287 | 3.62 | 23.2% | 7.3% | 98 | -0.22 | 2.96 | 176 | 73 |
| Chris Narveson L 2029 · 4.81 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.81 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | .333 | 4.63 | 14.1% | 4.5% | 193 | -0.18 | 4.62 | 249 | 72 |
| Zach Duke L 2028 · 4.09 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.09 | 25.9% | 11.0% | 3.3% | .250 | 2.83 | 22.9% | 14.7% | 131 | -1.26 | 2.41 | 215 | 72 |
| Brian Flynn L 2025 · 4.49 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.49 | 17.7% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 277 | 71 |
| Luis Avilán L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.40 | 21.3% | 9.9% | 3.4% | .304 | 5.45 | 22.2% | 12.2% | 26 | +1.05 | 2.65 | 256 | 71 |
| Luke Westphal L 2028 · 4.68 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.68 | 22.7% | 13.1% | 3.4% | .321 | 4.72 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 95 | +0.04 | 2.97 | 294 | 71 |
| Keith Hessler L 2025 · 5.04 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.04 | 19.8% | 13.3% | 3.5% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 228 | 71 |
| Marlon Arias L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .330 | 3.73 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.57 | 3.73 | 154 | 70 |
| Ryan Buchter L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.34 | 24.3% | 9.3% | 3.8% | .202 | 4.17 | 25.3% | 15.6% | 85 | -0.17 | 2.37 | 296 | 70 |
| Phil Coke L 2029 · 3.85 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.85 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.1% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.81 | 3.04 | 101 | 70 |
| Kyle Regnault L 2025 · 3.83 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.83 | 27.6% | 9.7% | 3.4% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 204 | 70 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.