Yuki Matsui — OGILVIE

Yuki Matsui P San Diego Padres

Age 30 LHP 5'8" / 165 lbs MLB

2026 ROS PROJECTION71 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8593vR 101

ERA3.86

FIP4.20

K%24.5%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%13.5%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 77 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL3535

CMD4545

K†5560

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1491.9

Whiff%

p9034.7%

p7326.4%

xwOBA vs

p900.274

SL+4.2 (27%)

SI (2%)

FB-2.2 (41%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	28	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	64	0	63	257	69	23	8	0%	1.0	26.8%	8.9%	17.9%	3.0%	3.73	3.63	+0.7
2024	28	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	64	0	63	257	69	23	8	0%	1.0	26.8%	8.9%	17.9%	3.0%	3.73	3.63	+0.7
2024	28	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	64	0	63	257	69	23	8	0%	1.0	26.8%	8.9%	17.9%	3.1%	3.73	3.66	+0.7
2025	29	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	61	0	63	272	61	31	10	0%	1.0	22.4%	11.4%	11.0%	3.6%	3.98	4.62	-0.1
2025	29	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	61	0	63	272	61	31	10	0%	1.0	22.4%	11.4%	11.0%	3.6%	3.98	4.62	-0.1
2025	29	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	61	0	63	272	61	31	10	0%	1.0	22.4%	11.4%	11.0%	3.7%	3.98	4.69	-0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			172	0	184	764	192	83	25	0%	1.1	25.1%	10.9%	14.3%	3.3%	3.28	4.13	+0.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	58	0	71	294	76	32	9	0%	1.2	25.0%	10.8%	14.3%	3.1%	2.55	4.04	+0.4
YTD	30	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	58	0	71	294	76	32	9	0%	1.2	25.0%	10.8%	14.3%	3.1%	2.55	4.04	+0.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	AAA RAW	SD	11	0	13	59	14	3	2	0%	1.2	23.7%	5.1%	18.6%	3.4%	4.97	3.60	—
2026	30	MLB RAW	SD	47	0	58	235	62	29	7	0%	1.2	26.4%	12.3%	14.0%	3.0%	2.02	4.07	+0.3
SO FAR	30	MLB RAW	SD	47	0	58	235	62	29	7	0%	1.2	26.4%	12.3%	14.0%	3.0%	2.02	4.07	+0.3
ROS	30	MLB MLE	SD	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	24.5%	11.0%	13.5%	3.2%	3.86	4.20	+0.0
ROS	30	MLB CTX	SD	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	24.5%	11.0%	13.5%	3.2%	3.86	4.20	+0.0
2026 TOT	30	MLB MLE	SD	—	—	77	319	82	35	10	—	—	25.7%	10.9%	14.9%	3.1%	2.65	4.05	+0.6
FULL	30	MLB A+C	SD	—	—	64	270	82	35	10	—	—	30.4%	12.9%	17.5%	3.6%	3.17	4.16	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	SD	59	0	62	261	63	31	9	0%	1.0	24.3%	12.0%	12.3%	3.4%	4.59	4.82	-0.2
2028	32	MLB MLE	SD	55	0	57	242	57	30	9	0%	1.0	23.5%	12.4%	11.1%	3.6%	4.88	5.07	-0.3
2027	31	MLB CTX	SD	56	0	59	249	60	30	8	0%	1.1	24.3%	12.0%	12.3%	3.4%	4.59	4.82	-0.2
2028	32	MLB CTX	SD	51	0	54	228	53	28	8	0%	1.1	23.5%	12.4%	11.1%	3.6%	4.88	5.07	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		286	0	303	1268	312	144	43	0%	1.1	24.6%	11.4%	13.3%	3.4%	3.83	4.31	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		188	0	200	836	206	95	28	0%	1.1	24.6%	11.4%	13.3%	3.4%	3.83	4.31	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		183	0	197	823	204	86	27	0%	1.1	24.7%	10.4%	14.3%	3.2%	3.39	4.10	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		186	0	200	837	207	87	27	0%	1.1	24.7%	10.4%	14.3%	3.2%	3.39	4.10	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yuki Matsui (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.67	23.9%	11.2%	3.3%	—	4.94	23.9%	11.7%	119	+0.27	—	—	—
Antonio Bastardo L 2016 · 4.43 FIP	30	SU	4.43	24.9%	9.8%	4.0%	.268	8.05	15.0%	-1.4%	20	+3.62	3.10	145	82
Mike Dunn L 2015 · 3.75 FIP	30	SU	3.75	27.7%	11.9%	2.7%	.294	4.21	22.5%	10.9%	110	+0.46	3.71	181	81
Fernando Abad L 2016 · 3.77 FIP	30	SU	3.77	20.7%	10.1%	2.1%	.271	2.95	21.8%	17.1%	88	-0.82	2.37	306	79
Dan Jennings L 2017 · 4.32 FIP	30	SU	4.32	19.1%	9.0%	3.1%	.245	3.88	16.6%	8.5%	64	-0.44	3.11	244	76
Adam Loewen L 2015 · 3.84 FIP	31	SU	3.84	25.1%	15.9%	1.6%	.287	3.63	23.2%	7.3%	98	-0.21	2.96	176	75
Jeff Beliveau L 2017 · 4.40 FIP	30	SU	4.40	25.2%	11.3%	3.6%	.261	3.86	23.3%	8.9%	26	-0.54	3.19	137	75
Tommy Layne L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	30	SU	3.61	21.7%	12.1%	1.5%	.284	3.34	20.2%	11.0%	97	-0.27	1.32	182	75
Luis Avilán L 2019 · 4.51 FIP	30	SU	4.51	21.3%	9.9%	3.5%	.304	5.40	22.2%	12.2%	26	+0.89	2.62	256	74
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	74
Zach Duke L 2015 · 4.21 FIP	32	SU	4.21	25.9%	11.0%	3.5%	.250	2.85	22.9%	14.7%	131	-1.36	2.44	215	73
Kevin Siegrist L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	28	SU	3.95	25.0%	11.6%	2.7%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	2.72	176	72
Vidal Nuño L 2017 · 4.57 FIP	30	SU	4.57	20.7%	8.1%	4.0%	.315	4.17	20.6%	15.0%	125	-0.40	4.00	424	72
Justin Wilson L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	30	SU	3.56	29.2%	13.6%	2.2%	.308	3.85	24.0%	13.5%	93	+0.29	2.49	420	71
Ryan Buchter L 2017 · 4.45 FIP	30	SU	4.45	24.3%	9.3%	4.0%	.202	4.19	25.3%	15.6%	85	-0.26	2.37	296	71
Keith Hessler L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	29	SU	4.96	19.8%	13.3%	3.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	228	70
Kyle Regnault L 2018 · 3.82 FIP	29	SU	3.82	27.6%	9.7%	3.3%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	204	70
Sammy Solís L 2019 · 4.05 FIP	30	SU	4.05	26.2%	8.9%	3.7%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.51	190	70
Buddy Baumann L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	30	SU	4.87	20.5%	11.9%	3.6%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	155	70
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	70
James Pazos L 2021 · 4.41 FIP	30	SU	4.41	26.0%	12.0%	3.6%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.55	261	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	62	23.9%	11.8%	1.33	4.59
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19