Yuki Matsui
P
San Diego Padres
Age 30
LHP
5'8" / 165 lbs
MLB
2026 ROS PROJECTION46 act + 33 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101110vR 119
ERA4.06
FIP4.41
K%23.9%
BB%11.2%
K-BB%12.7%
ROS IP33
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 79 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1491.9
Whiff%
p9037.4%
K%
p6424.8%
xwOBA vs
p490.313
SL+4.2 (27%)
SI (2%)
FB-2.2 (41%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 64 | 0 | 63 | 257 | 69 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.8% | 8.9% | 17.9% | 3.3% | 3.73 | 3.80 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 64 | 0 | 63 | 257 | 69 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.8% | 8.9% | 17.9% | 3.1% | 3.73 | 3.66 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 61 | 0 | 63 | 272 | 61 | 31 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 11.0% | 4.0% | 3.98 | 4.82 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 61 | 0 | 63 | 272 | 61 | 31 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 11.0% | 3.7% | 3.98 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 36 | 0 | 46 | 200 | 49 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.7% | 11.1% | 12.6% | 3.6% | 3.35 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | SD | 32 | 0 | 33 | 141 | 34 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 11.2% | 12.7% | 3.5% | 4.06 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | SD | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 33 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 11.2% | 12.7% | 3.5% | 4.06 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | SD | — | — | 79 | 341 | 83 | 38 | 12 | — | — | 24.2% | 11.1% | 13.2% | 3.5% | 3.65 | 4.45 | +0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | SD | — | — | 66 | 280 | 83 | 38 | 12 | — | — | 29.5% | 13.5% | 16.0% | 4.2% | 4.35 | 4.65 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | SD | 59 | 0 | 62 | 261 | 61 | 32 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 3.7% | 4.83 | 5.07 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | SD | 55 | 0 | 57 | 242 | 55 | 31 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 12.6% | 10.1% | 3.9% | 5.12 | 5.32 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | SD | 56 | 0 | 59 | 249 | 59 | 30 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 3.7% | 4.83 | 5.07 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | SD | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 52 | 29 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 12.6% | 10.1% | 3.9% | 5.12 | 5.32 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 290 | 0 | 306 | 1289 | 309 | 148 | 46 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 11.5% | 12.5% | 3.6% | 4.17 | 4.49 | +3.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 202 | 97 | 30 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 11.5% | 12.5% | 3.6% | 4.17 | 4.49 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 161 | 0 | 172 | 729 | 177 | 76 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.3% | 10.4% | 13.9% | 3.6% | 3.72 | 4.37 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 188 | 0 | 200 | 849 | 207 | 89 | 31 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.3% | 10.4% | 13.9% | 3.6% | 3.72 | 4.37 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Yuki Matsui (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.76 | 24.0% | 11.2% | 3.4% | — | 5.19 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 119 | +0.43 | — | — | — |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.09 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.33 | 3.72 | 181 | 80 |
| Antonio Bastardo L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.29 | 24.9% | 9.8% | 3.7% | .268 | 8.16 | 15.0% | -1.4% | 20 | +3.87 | 3.04 | 145 | 79 |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.73 | 20.7% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .271 | 2.91 | 21.8% | 17.1% | 88 | -0.82 | 2.35 | 306 | 77 |
| Adam Loewen L 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.90 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 1.7% | .287 | 3.58 | 23.2% | 7.3% | 98 | -0.32 | 2.96 | 176 | 75 |
| Jeff Beliveau L 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.55 | 25.2% | 11.3% | 3.9% | .261 | 3.76 | 23.3% | 8.9% | 26 | -0.79 | 3.10 | 137 | 75 |
| Tommy Layne L 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.58 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.4% | .284 | 3.34 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 97 | -0.24 | 1.32 | 182 | 74 |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.37 | 19.1% | 9.0% | 3.2% | .245 | 3.99 | 16.6% | 8.5% | 64 | -0.38 | 3.09 | 244 | 74 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2027 · 4.13 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.13 | 22.1% | 14.3% | 2.0% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 145 | 73 |
| Zach Duke L 2028 · 4.18 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.18 | 25.9% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .250 | 2.81 | 22.9% | 14.7% | 131 | -1.37 | 2.44 | 215 | 72 |
| Luis Avilán L 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.52 | 21.3% | 9.9% | 3.6% | .304 | 5.19 | 22.2% | 12.2% | 26 | +0.67 | 2.68 | 256 | 72 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.83 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 175 | 71 |
| Buddy Baumann L 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.85 | 20.5% | 11.9% | 3.6% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 155 | 71 |
| Keith Hessler L 2025 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.73 | 19.8% | 13.3% | 3.0% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 228 | 71 |
| Phil Coke L 2029 · 4.00 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.00 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.96 | 3.04 | 101 | 70 |
| Aaron Brown L 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.22 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 4.2% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 269 | 70 |
| Héctor Santiago L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.4% | 12.4% | 3.4% | .299 | 4.70 | 22.5% | 11.9% | 154 | +0.08 | 4.40 | 713 | 70 |
| Vidal Nuño L 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.69 | 20.7% | 8.1% | 4.2% | .315 | 4.13 | 20.6% | 15.0% | 125 | -0.56 | 4.07 | 424 | 69 |
| Kyle Regnault L 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.81 | 27.6% | 9.7% | 3.3% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 204 | 69 |
| Ryan Buchter L 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.42 | 24.3% | 9.3% | 4.0% | .202 | 4.09 | 25.3% | 15.6% | 85 | -0.33 | 2.37 | 296 | 69 |
| Kevin Siegrist L 2024 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.00 | 25.0% | 11.6% | 2.8% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.67 | 176 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 62 | 23.4% | 12.0% | 1.42 | 4.77 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |