Yuki Matsui

P San Diego Padres

Age 31 LHP 5'8" / 165 lbs MLB

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	28	MLBSD	64	63	3.73	3.66	26.8%	8.9%	0.7
2025	29	MLBSD	61	63	3.98	4.69	22.4%	11.4%	-0.1
2026	30	MIX2 levels	65	77	2.35	3.90	25.7%	11.3%	0.6	K 25.1% · BB 11.2% · FIP 3.95
2027PROJ	31	MLBSD	50	52	4.13	4.57	24.7%	11.8%	-0.0
2028PROJ95% MLB	32	MLBSD	31	33	4.55	4.83	23.9%	12.2%	-0.1
2029PROJ95% MLB	33	MLBSD	20	21	4.88	5.11	23.0%	12.7%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.1 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs90

K%72

FB Velo15

Form0.71 ERA (proj 4.13) · K 25.0% (proj 24.7%) · BB 12.0% (proj 11.8%) · last 90d · 25 IP through Oct 27

CompsGeorge Sherrill (age 31) · Brian Fuentes (age 31) · Buddy Boshers (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8997vR 105

ERA4.13

FIP4.57

K%24.7%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%12.9%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL3535

CMD4545

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1592.0

Whiff%

p9033.1%

p7226.2%

xwOBA vs

p900.270

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	28	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	64	0	63	257	69	23	8	0%	1.0	26.8%	8.9%	17.9%	3.0%	3.73	3.63	+0.7
2024	28	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	64	0	63	257	69	23	8	0%	1.0	26.8%	8.9%	17.9%	3.0%	3.73	3.63	+0.7
2024	28	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	64	0	63	257	69	23	8	0%	1.0	26.8%	8.9%	17.9%	3.1%	3.73	3.66	+0.7
2025	29	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	61	0	63	272	61	31	10	0%	1.0	22.4%	11.4%	11.0%	3.6%	3.98	4.62	-0.1
2025	29	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	61	0	63	272	61	31	10	0%	1.0	22.4%	11.4%	11.0%	3.6%	3.98	4.62	-0.1
2025	29	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	61	0	63	272	61	31	10	0%	1.0	22.4%	11.4%	11.0%	3.7%	3.98	4.69	-0.1
2026	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	65	0	77	319	82	36	9	0%	1.2	25.1%	11.2%	13.9%	2.8%	2.35	3.95	+0.5
2026	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	65	0	77	319	82	36	9	0%	1.2	25.1%	11.2%	13.9%	2.8%	2.35	3.95	+0.5
2026	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	65	0	77	319	82	36	9	0%	1.2	25.7%	11.3%	14.4%	2.8%	2.35	3.90	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			179	0	190	789	198	87	25	0%	1.1	25.1%	11.0%	14.1%	3.2%	3.17	4.10	+1.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	SD	50	0	52	220	54	26	7	0%	1.0	24.7%	11.8%	12.9%	3.1%	4.13	4.57	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	SD	33	0	34	145	35	18	5	0%	1.0	23.9%	12.2%	11.7%	3.3%	4.55	4.83	-0.1
2029	33	MLB MLE	SD	21	0	22	93	21	12	3	0%	1.1	23.0%	12.7%	10.4%	3.6%	4.88	5.11	-0.1
2028	32	MLB CTX	SD	31	0	33	139	33	17	5	0%	1.1	23.9%	12.2%	11.7%	3.3%	4.55	4.83	-0.1
2029	33	MLB CTX	SD	20	0	21	89	20	11	3	0%	1.1	23.0%	12.7%	10.4%	3.6%	4.88	5.11	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		230	0	244	1015	251	115	33	0%	1.1	24.8%	11.3%	13.4%	3.2%	3.50	4.22	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		189	0	200	834	206	94	27	0%	1.1	24.8%	11.3%	13.4%	3.2%	3.50	4.22	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		190	0	203	848	210	90	27	0%	1.1	24.8%	10.6%	14.2%	3.1%	3.29	4.07	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		188	0	200	837	207	89	26	0%	1.1	24.8%	10.6%	14.2%	3.1%	3.29	4.07	+0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 13 IPFIP 3.60 → 4.00 (+0.40)K% 23.7% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.73%	—	×0.860	20.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.08%	—	×0.900	4.58%
HR / BF /BF	3.39%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.73%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.60 → 4.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yuki Matsui (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.57	24.7%	11.8%	3.1%	—	4.94	23.6%	11.2%	56	+0.37	—	—	—
George Sherrill L 2008 · 3.86 FIP	31	SU	3.86	24.3%	11.3%	2.5%	.277	3.38	20.6%	12.4%	141	-0.48	2.74	323	79
Brian Fuentes L 2007 · 3.68 FIP	31	SU	3.68	22.0%	9.0%	2.4%	.235	3.19	25.4%	16.4%	166	-0.49	2.08	602	75
Buddy Boshers L 2019 · 3.73 FIP	31	SU	3.73	25.3%	10.4%	2.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.76	239	73
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	73
Randy Flores L 2006 · 4.00 FIP	31	SU	4.00	20.4%	9.7%	2.5%	.333	3.30	18.1%	10.5%	93	-0.70	2.51	250	72
Edward Paredes L 2018 · 3.81 FIP	31	SU	3.81	22.7%	11.9%	2.0%	.351	5.10	21.5%	14.2%	18	+1.29	2.36	130	72
Tony Watson L 2016 · 4.37 FIP	31	SU	4.37	21.3%	7.0%	4.0%	.227	3.43	21.4%	16.9%	187	-0.94	2.21	648	71
Pedro Feliciano L 2008 · 3.90 FIP	31	SU	3.90	21.1%	7.6%	2.9%	.309	3.02	22.1%	14.9%	122	-0.88	2.69	378	71
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	71
Tommy Layne L 2016 · 3.43 FIP	31	SU	3.43	20.3%	9.6%	1.5%	.266	4.25	19.4%	10.0%	90	+0.82	0.55	218	71
Scott Sauerbeck L 2003 · 4.59 FIP	31	SU	4.59	19.2%	14.6%	2.3%	.247	4.29	18.9%	7.8%	61	-0.30	2.79	386	70
Nick Hagadone L 2017 · 3.74 FIP	31	SU	3.74	22.6%	9.3%	2.5%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	141	70
Adam Liberatore L 2018 · 4.28 FIP	31	SU	4.28	18.6%	9.1%	2.9%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	124	70
Brian Moran L 2019 · 3.40 FIP	30	SU	3.40	26.9%	10.0%	2.4%	.269	2.99	25.5%	18.5%	99	-0.41	1.80	421	67
Buddy Baumann L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	30	SU	4.87	20.5%	11.9%	3.6%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	155	67
David Purcey L 2013 · 3.79 FIP	31	SU	3.79	20.4%	11.5%	1.7%	.227	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	206	67
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	67
Ryan Buchter L 2018 · 3.54 FIP	31	SU	3.54	25.2%	8.6%	2.7%	.269	4.95	24.3%	12.6%	78	+1.41	2.37	296	66
Nick Ramirez L 2021 · 3.63 FIP	31	SU	3.63	20.2%	8.0%	2.2%	.305	3.17	17.7%	11.9%	169	-0.46	2.91	478	66
Jeremy Bleich L 2018 · 3.69 FIP	31	SU	3.69	20.3%	6.6%	2.7%	.296	4.41	20.1%	13.1%	33	+0.72	3.20	241	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	50	24.7%	12.1%	1.24	3.62
Louis Coleman ('18)	1.4	46	23.4%	10.8%	1.17	3.51
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Al Reyes ('08)	2.1	54	23.2%	10.7%	1.11	3.84
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Alberto Reyes ('95-'08, 5 WAR*)	2.1	54	27.1%*	10.2%*	1.18*	3.66*
Tim Stoddard ('75-'89, 4 WAR*)	3.6	66	26.2%*	11.2%*	1.14*	4.24*