Jackson Lancaster

Jackson Lancaster P Montgomery Biscuits

Age 27 LHP 6'1" / 195 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 29 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106115vR 123

ERA4.71

FIP4.71

K%20.7%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%10.1%

ROS IP30

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 29 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	1	27	121	42	16	2	5%	1.2	18.9%	17.6%	1.3%	2.6%	4.00	5.14	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	1	27	121	42	16	2	5%	1.2	18.9%	17.6%	1.3%	2.6%	4.00	5.14	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	1	27	121	42	16	2	5%	1.2	34.7%	13.2%	21.5%	1.7%	4.00	2.73	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	1	34	155	48	13	5	4%	1.3	24.0%	11.1%	12.9%	3.6%	5.82	4.48	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	1	34	155	48	13	5	4%	1.3	24.0%	11.1%	12.9%	3.6%	5.82	4.48	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	1	34	155	48	13	5	4%	1.3	31.0%	8.4%	22.6%	3.2%	5.82	3.34	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	53	207	51	19	4	0%	1.8	19.5%	10.3%	9.2%	2.5%	2.91	4.15	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	53	207	51	19	4	0%	1.8	19.5%	10.3%	9.2%	2.5%	2.91	4.15	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	0	53	207	51	19	4	0%	1.8	24.6%	9.2%	15.5%	1.9%	2.91	3.23	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	31	0	40	198	42	31	9	0%	1.3	16.8%	17.5%	-0.7%	5.6%	9.15	6.95	—
YTD	27	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	31	0	40	198	42	31	9	0%	1.3	16.8%	17.5%	-0.7%	5.6%	9.15	6.95	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	A+ RAW	TB	12	0	15	72	21	11	4	0%	1.2	29.2%	15.3%	13.9%	5.6%	7.80	5.62	—
2026	27	AA RAW	TB	19	0	25	126	21	20	5	0%	1.3	16.7%	15.9%	0.8%	4.0%	9.95	5.88	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	TB	27	0	29	121	25	13	4	0%	1.1	20.8%	10.6%	10.2%	3.1%	4.73	4.76	-0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	TB	10	0	11	46	10	5	1	0%	1.1	20.8%	10.6%	10.2%	3.1%	4.73	4.76	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	11	46	9	5	1	0%	1.1	20.8%	10.6%	10.2%	3.1%	4.73	4.38	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	167	93	19	0%	1.1	20.8%	10.6%	10.2%	3.1%	4.73	4.38	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		110	2	154	681	133	94	25	2%	1.4	19.6%	13.9%	5.7%	3.7%	5.38	5.22	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		143	3	200	884	173	123	32	2%	1.4	19.6%	13.9%	5.7%	3.7%	5.38	5.22	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jackson Lancaster (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	20.7%	10.6%	3.0%	—	4.76	20.8%	10.2%	29	+0.05	—	—	—
Jeremy Horst L 2015 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	18.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.291	3.71	15.1%	2.7%	48	-0.38	3.71	108	84
Jeff Ibarra L 2016 · 3.75 FIP	28	SU	3.75	17.8%	9.7%	1.7%	.321	3.29	19.2%	13.8%	66	-0.46	2.85	101	84
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	83
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	83
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	82
Bryan Harper L 2016 · 4.13 FIP	26	SU	4.13	19.3%	9.6%	2.6%	.197	4.63	14.9%	1.0%	46	+0.50	4.13	133	82
Triston Polley L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	26	SU	4.15	17.8%	8.9%	2.6%	.331	4.53	17.4%	-0.3%	22	+0.38	4.15	151	81
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	81
Aaron Brown L 2019 · 4.04 FIP	27	SU	4.04	22.9%	13.5%	2.1%	.317	4.77	19.4%	6.7%	129	+0.73	4.04	269	81
Adam Liberatore L 2015 · 3.64 FIP	28	SU	3.64	21.1%	7.3%	2.5%	.267	3.17	23.3%	15.2%	73	-0.47	2.38	124	81
David Rollins L 2017 · 5.58 FIP	27	SU	5.58	18.0%	12.1%	4.5%	.260	5.68	15.9%	12.5%	20	+0.10	3.59	132	80
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	80
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	80
Braulio Lara L 2016 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	17.7%	11.0%	2.5%	.289	5.80	19.8%	2.0%	40	+1.45	3.96	118	80
Adrian Gusman L 2019 · 4.31 FIP	27	SU	4.31	17.9%	9.7%	2.7%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	141	80
Brad Kuntz L 2018 · 4.10 FIP	26	SU	4.10	20.9%	11.7%	2.4%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	2.35	197	79
Patrick Schuster L 2017 · 4.51 FIP	26	SU	4.51	19.8%	8.3%	3.7%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	160	78
Bailey Horn L 2023 · 3.97 FIP	25	SU	3.97	20.7%	10.3%	2.4%	.322	4.62	21.8%	11.1%	110	+0.65	3.96	265	78
Tony Cingrani L 2016 · 4.19 FIP	27	SU	4.19	18.1%	13.3%	1.7%	.271	3.50	32.4%	26.1%	65	-0.69	1.68	186	78
Daniel Gibson L 2018 · 3.73 FIP	26	SU	3.73	18.6%	8.7%	2.0%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	159	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	20.8%	10.6%	1.17	4.72
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64