Jackson Lancaster
P
Montgomery Biscuits
Age 27
LHP
6'1" / 195 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION25 act + 30 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103112vR 122
ERA4.52
FIP4.52
K%22.0%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%12.2%
ROS IP30
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 1 | 27 | 121 | 42 | 16 | 2 | 5% | 1.2 | 18.9% | 17.6% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 4.00 | 5.05 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 1 | 27 | 121 | 42 | 16 | 2 | 5% | 1.2 | 34.7% | 13.2% | 21.5% | 1.7% | 4.00 | 2.73 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 1 | 34 | 155 | 48 | 13 | 5 | 4% | 1.3 | 24.0% | 11.1% | 12.9% | 3.6% | 5.82 | 4.45 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 1 | 34 | 155 | 48 | 13 | 5 | 4% | 1.3 | 31.0% | 8.4% | 22.6% | 3.2% | 5.82 | 3.34 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 0 | 53 | 207 | 51 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 1.8 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 2.91 | 4.28 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 0 | 53 | 207 | 51 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 1.8 | 24.6% | 9.2% | 15.5% | 1.9% | 2.91 | 3.23 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 19 | 0 | 25 | 126 | 21 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 13.5% | 17.5% | -4.0% | 4.8% | 9.95 | 6.79 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | TB | 28 | 0 | 30 | 125 | 28 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 9.8% | 12.2% | 3.0% | 4.52 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | TB | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 9.8% | 12.2% | 3.0% | 4.52 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | TB | — | — | 55 | 251 | 49 | 32 | 9 | — | — | 19.3% | 12.9% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 7.02 | 5.56 | -0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | TB | — | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 22.0% | 9.8% | 12.2% | 3.0% | 4.52 | 4.14 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TB | 27 | 0 | 29 | 121 | 27 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 9.9% | 12.1% | 3.1% | 4.55 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TB | 10 | 0 | 11 | 46 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 9.9% | 12.1% | 3.1% | 4.55 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 11 | 0 | 11 | 48 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 9.9% | 12.1% | 3.1% | 4.55 | 4.20 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 193 | 88 | 18 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 9.9% | 12.1% | 3.1% | 4.55 | 4.20 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 98 | 2 | 139 | 609 | 117 | 82 | 20 | 2% | 1.4 | 19.3% | 13.4% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 5.12 | 4.99 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 141 | 3 | 200 | 876 | 169 | 118 | 29 | 2% | 1.4 | 19.3% | 13.4% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 5.12 | 4.99 | +0.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jackson Lancaster (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.52 | 22.0% | 9.8% | 3.0% | — | 4.59 | 22.0% | 12.1% | 29 | +0.07 | — | — | — |
| Adam Liberatore L 2027 · 3.84 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.84 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.9% | .267 | 3.21 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.63 | 2.44 | 124 | 83 |
| Fabian Williamson L 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.46 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .259 | 5.31 | 16.5% | -3.3% | 54 | +1.85 | 3.46 | 154 | 83 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.01 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 221 | 82 |
| Juan Grullon L 2025 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.86 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 134 | 81 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.06 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.73 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.33 | 3.73 | 108 | 81 |
| Bryan Harper L 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.97 | 19.3% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .197 | 4.72 | 14.9% | 1.0% | 46 | +0.75 | 3.97 | 133 | 80 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.32 | 21.9% | 11.1% | 1.2% | .368 | 3.66 | 21.7% | 11.5% | 100 | +0.34 | 3.04 | 153 | 80 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.5% | .321 | 3.39 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 66 | -0.23 | 2.95 | 101 | 80 |
| Haylen Green L 2024 · 4.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.08 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 104 | 80 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.26 | 17.9% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .281 | 3.91 | 20.1% | 10.8% | 34 | -0.35 | 2.34 | 338 | 80 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 79 |
| Will Gilbert L 2024 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.26 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 2.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 141 | 79 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.65 | 20.5% | 8.0% | 2.3% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 308 | 79 |
| Zac Rosscup L 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.69 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 4.1% | .296 | 2.67 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -2.02 | 2.51 | 160 | 79 |
| Jake Diekman L 2027 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.40 | 26.5% | 11.9% | 1.9% | .310 | 3.21 | 27.0% | 15.3% | 106 | -0.19 | 2.33 | 455 | 78 |
| Aaron Brown L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.88 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 1.8% | .317 | 4.79 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 129 | +0.91 | 3.88 | 269 | 78 |
| Keith Hessler L 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.33 | 19.0% | 9.3% | 1.2% | .305 | 4.87 | 17.8% | 5.2% | 98 | +1.54 | 3.33 | 228 | 78 |
| Bailey Horn L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.24 | 23.8% | 11.7% | 3.0% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 265 | 78 |
| Adrian Gusman L 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.32 | 17.9% | 9.7% | 2.7% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.91 | 141 | 77 |
| James Reeves L 2025 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.79 | 22.4% | 10.3% | 2.3% | .226 | 5.24 | 27.0% | 10.8% | 51 | +1.45 | 2.02 | 280 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 29 | 22.0% | 9.9% | 1.19 | 4.53 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |