Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 4 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 36.8% | 5.3% | 31.6% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.66 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 4 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 36.8% | 5.3% | 31.6% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.90 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 112 | 490 | 106 | 51 | 8 | 100% | 5.1 | 16.2% | 12.2% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 4.34 | 4.11 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 112 | 490 | 106 | 51 | 8 | 100% | 5.1 | 21.6% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 1.6% | 4.34 | 3.50 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 26 | 9 | 73 | 331 | 77 | 48 | 8 | 35% | 2.8 | 17.9% | 16.7% | 1.2% | 2.8% | 5.52 | 5.22 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 26 | 9 | 73 | 331 | 77 | 48 | 8 | 35% | 2.8 | 23.3% | 14.5% | 8.8% | 2.4% | 5.52 | 4.38 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 17 | 108 | 465 | 112 | 51 | 12 | 71% | 4.5 | 18.7% | 12.6% | 6.1% | 3.0% | 3.32 | 4.76 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 17 | 108 | 465 | 112 | 51 | 12 | 71% | 4.5 | 24.1% | 11.0% | 13.1% | 2.6% | 3.32 | 3.88 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 8 | 76 | 328 | 80 | 39 | 5 | 21% | 1.9 | 20.6% | 12.9% | 7.7% | 1.0% | 3.93 | 3.56 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 8 | 76 | 328 | 80 | 39 | 5 | 21% | 1.9 | 24.4% | 11.9% | 12.5% | 1.5% | 3.93 | 3.39 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 29 | 3 | 46 | 234 | 47 | 28 | 4 | 10% | 1.6 | 17.7% | 12.6% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 6.02 | 4.23 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | COL | 126 | 0 | 132 | 557 | 111 | 75 | 14 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 13.5% | 6.4% | 2.6% | 4.91 | 4.91 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | COL | 12 | 0 | 13 | 55 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 13.5% | 6.4% | 2.6% | 4.91 | 4.91 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | COL | — | — | 178 | 791 | 158 | 103 | 18 | — | — | 20.0% | 13.1% | 6.9% | 2.3% | 5.20 | 4.73 | +1.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | COL | — | — | 13 | 56 | 11 | 8 | 1 | — | — | 19.9% | 13.5% | 6.4% | 2.6% | 4.91 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | COL | 122 | 0 | 128 | 540 | 108 | 71 | 15 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 13.1% | 6.9% | 2.7% | 4.90 | 4.93 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | COL | 116 | 0 | 122 | 516 | 103 | 67 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 12.9% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 4.95 | 5.01 | +0.6 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | COL | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 46 | 30 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 13.1% | 6.9% | 2.7% | 4.90 | 4.93 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | COL | 69 | 0 | 72 | 304 | 61 | 39 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 12.9% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 4.95 | 5.01 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 133 | 0 | 140 | 590 | 118 | 77 | 16 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 13.0% | 6.9% | 2.8% | 4.93 | 4.59 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 169 | 110 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 13.0% | 6.9% | 2.8% | 4.93 | 4.59 | +1.9 | ||
| Career | — | 144 | 59 | 421 | 1867 | 341 | 246 | 38 | 41% | 2.9 | 18.3% | 13.2% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 4.34 | 4.35 | +5.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 68 | 28 | 200 | 888 | 162 | 117 | 18 | 41% | 2.9 | 18.3% | 13.2% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 4.34 | 4.35 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Mason Green (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.91 | 19.9% | 13.5% | 2.6% | — | 4.97 | 20.0% | 7.0% | 250 | +0.06 | — | — | — |
| Tommy Vail L 2025 · 5.18 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.18 | 19.7% | 16.4% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 151 | 75 |
| Alex Cornwell L 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.01 | 14.7% | 11.1% | 3.2% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 381 | 73 |
| Matt Whitehouse L 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.70 | 17.0% | 12.8% | 2.6% | .308 | 4.02 | 20.1% | 9.2% | 81 | -0.68 | 3.38 | 353 | 72 |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.83 | 16.6% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .308 | 3.98 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 59 | -0.85 | 3.98 | 122 | 68 |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.53 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 3.3% | .311 | 4.31 | 17.2% | 9.9% | 300 | -0.22 | 3.88 | 523 | 67 |
| Jordan Carr L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.24 | 13.1% | 8.8% | 2.1% | .295 | 7.18 | 11.4% | -3.7% | 38 | +2.94 | 3.39 | 261 | 67 |
| Aaron Laffey L 2029 · 4.04 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.04 | 13.5% | 9.7% | 1.6% | .318 | 4.37 | 12.5% | 5.2% | 192 | +0.33 | 3.53 | 282 | 67 |
| Greg Nappo L 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.29 | 17.2% | 10.3% | 4.3% | .285 | 6.48 | 12.3% | -0.3% | 11 | +1.19 | 3.40 | 144 | 66 |
| Will Lamb L 2025 · 5.47 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.47 | 20.0% | 14.0% | 4.2% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 178 | 65 |
| Chris Reed L 2025 · 4.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.84 | 16.4% | 9.8% | 3.4% | .238 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.84 | 137 | 65 |
| Jose Molina L 2024 · 4.23 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.23 | 14.4% | 8.9% | 2.2% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 144 | 64 |
| Carlos Teller L 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.72 | 13.8% | 10.9% | 0.7% | .329 | 4.99 | 13.3% | 3.1% | 187 | +1.27 | 3.72 | 333 | 64 |
| Frank Garces L 2025 · 4.13 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.13 | 16.9% | 8.0% | 2.6% | .317 | 4.56 | 15.0% | 7.1% | 132 | +0.43 | 4.13 | 306 | 64 |
| Juan Grullon L 2025 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.86 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 134 | 63 |
| Dalton Stambaugh L 2024 · 5.33 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.33 | 15.4% | 11.9% | 3.7% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 148 | 63 |
| Brian Johnson L 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.52 | 20.0% | 8.8% | 3.6% | .300 | 4.82 | 17.1% | 7.0% | 116 | +0.30 | 3.38 | 506 | 63 |
| Eric Jokisch L 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.96 | 12.4% | 9.6% | 3.1% | .330 | 3.92 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 283 | -1.04 | 3.80 | 412 | 63 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.27 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 5.0% | .289 | 5.37 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 26 | +0.10 | 5.27 | 128 | 63 |
| Nico Tellache L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 16.3% | 7.3% | 2.3% | .373 | 4.65 | 13.4% | 4.8% | 78 | +0.76 | 3.89 | 160 | 63 |
| Justin Marks L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .323 | 3.78 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.78 | 3.75 | 324 | 63 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 127 | 20.0% | 13.2% | 1.05 | 4.92 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Ian Anderson ('22) | 3 | 91 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 0.96 | 3.97 |