Mason Green

P Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 28 LHP 6'1" / 195 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	24	17	108	3.32	3.88	24.1%	11.0%	—	K 18.7% · BB 12.6% · FIP 4.80
2025	26	MIX2 levels	39	8	76	3.93	3.39	24.4%	11.9%	—	K 20.6% · BB 12.9% · FIP 3.68
2026	27	AAACOL	47	3	86	5.21	3.93	18.8%	12.0%	—	K 16.2% · BB 10.8% · FIP 3.98
2027PROJ	28	MLBCOL	12	0	13	4.84	4.84	17.3%	12.3%	-0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	29	MLBCOL	33	0	35	4.85	4.91	17.5%	12.1%	-0.1
2029PROJ55% MLB	30	MLBCOL	41	0	43	4.94	5.03	17.5%	12.0%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control40Command45

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsChad Bell (age 28) · Matt Whitehouse (age 28) · Edgar Olmos (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109117vR 125

ERA4.84

FIP4.84

K%17.3%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%5.0%

Proj IP132

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 132 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	4	0	5	19	7	1	0	0%	1.2	36.8%	5.3%	31.6%	0.0%	0.00	0.66	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	4	0	5	19	7	1	0	0%	1.2	36.8%	5.3%	31.6%	0.0%	0.00	0.90	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	112	490	106	51	8	100%	5.1	16.2%	12.2%	4.1%	1.7%	4.34	4.22	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	112	490	106	51	8	100%	5.1	21.6%	10.4%	11.2%	1.6%	4.34	3.50	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	26	9	73	331	77	48	8	35%	2.8	17.9%	16.7%	1.2%	2.9%	5.52	5.28	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	Spokane Indians	26	9	73	331	77	48	8	35%	2.8	23.3%	14.5%	8.8%	2.4%	5.52	4.38	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	17	108	465	112	51	12	71%	4.5	18.7%	12.6%	6.1%	3.1%	3.32	4.80	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	17	108	465	112	51	12	71%	4.5	18.7%	12.6%	6.1%	3.1%	3.32	4.80	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	17	108	465	112	51	12	71%	4.5	24.1%	11.0%	13.1%	2.6%	3.32	3.88	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	8	76	328	80	39	5	21%	1.9	20.6%	12.9%	7.7%	1.2%	3.93	3.68	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	8	76	328	80	39	5	21%	1.9	20.6%	12.9%	7.7%	1.2%	3.93	3.68	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	8	76	328	80	39	5	21%	1.9	24.4%	11.9%	12.5%	1.5%	3.93	3.39	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	47	3	86	415	78	50	6	6%	1.8	16.2%	10.8%	5.3%	1.6%	5.21	3.98	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	47	3	86	415	78	50	6	6%	1.8	16.2%	10.8%	5.3%	1.6%	5.21	3.98	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	Albuquerque Isotopes	47	3	86	415	78	50	6	6%	1.8	18.8%	12.0%	6.7%	1.4%	5.21	3.93	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	COL	12	0	13	55	9	7	1	0%	1.1	17.3%	12.3%	5.0%	2.3%	4.84	4.84	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	COL	90	0	95	401	70	48	10	0%	1.1	17.5%	12.1%	5.5%	2.5%	4.85	4.91	-0.4
2029	30	MLB MLE	COL	74	0	78	328	57	40	9	0%	1.1	17.5%	12.0%	5.5%	2.7%	4.94	5.03	-0.4
2028	29	MLB CTX	COL	33	0	35	148	26	18	4	0%	1.1	17.5%	12.1%	5.5%	2.5%	4.85	4.91	-0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	COL	41	0	43	182	32	22	5	0%	1.0	17.5%	12.0%	5.5%	2.7%	4.94	5.03	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		74	0	78	328	58	40	9	0%	1.1	17.5%	12.1%	5.5%	2.6%	4.90	4.60	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	149	103	23	0%	1.1	17.5%	12.1%	5.5%	2.6%	4.90	4.60	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		162	59	461	2048	367	262	43	36%	2.8	17.9%	12.8%	5.2%	2.1%	4.34	4.36	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		70	26	200	889	159	114	19	36%	2.8	17.9%	12.8%	5.2%	2.1%	4.34	4.36	-1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 86 IPFIP 3.83 → 3.98 (+0.15)K% 18.8% → 16.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.80%	—	×0.860	16.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.05%	—	×0.900	10.84%
HR / BF /BF	1.45%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.59%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.83 → 3.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAHartford Yard Goats · 70 IPFIP 3.16 → 3.68 (+0.52)K% 25.4% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.41%	—	×0.810	20.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.73%	—	×1.100	12.90%
HR / BF /BF	1.30%	÷1.255	×1.200	1.25%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 151).

Result: FIP 3.16 → 3.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 5 IPFIP 6.72 → 6.86 (+0.15)K% 9.5% → 8.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	9.52%	—	×0.860	8.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×0.900	12.86%
HR / BF /BF	4.76%	÷1.017	×1.100	5.15%

Result: FIP 6.72 → 6.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Spokane Indians · 97 IPFIP 3.69 → 4.56 (+0.87)K% 24.3% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.32%	—	×0.770	18.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.30%	—	×1.150	13.00%
HR / BF /BF	2.21%	÷1.086	×1.250	2.55%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 117).

Result: FIP 3.69 → 4.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAHartford Yard Goats · 12 IPFIP 5.14 → 6.49 (+1.35)K% 22.4% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.41%	—	×0.810	18.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.62%	—	×1.100	9.48%
HR / BF /BF	5.17%	÷0.916	×1.200	6.77%

Result: FIP 5.14 → 6.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Spokane Indians · 73 IPFIP 4.30 → 5.28 (+0.99)K% 23.3% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.26%	—	×0.770	17.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.50%	—	×1.150	16.68%
HR / BF /BF	2.42%	÷1.047	×1.250	2.89%

Result: FIP 4.30 → 5.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AFresno Grizzlies · 73 IPFIP 2.83 → 3.70 (+0.87)K% 23.0% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.98%	—	×0.740	17.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.36%	—	×1.180	12.22%
HR / BF /BF	0.65%	÷0.947	×1.300	0.89%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 89).

Result: FIP 2.83 → 3.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Spokane Indians · 39 IPFIP 4.62 → 5.10 (+0.48)K% 19.3% → 14.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.34%	—	×0.770	14.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.50%	—	×1.150	12.07%
HR / BF /BF	3.31%	÷1.316	×1.250	3.15%

Result: FIP 4.62 → 5.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mason Green (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.84	17.3%	12.3%	2.3%	—	4.96	17.5%	5.5%	173	+0.12	—	—	—
Chad Bell L 2017 · 4.57 FIP	28	SW	4.57	19.4%	8.9%	3.6%	.341	4.38	18.8%	11.4%	57	-0.19	3.39	393	75
Matt Whitehouse L 2019 · 4.07 FIP	28	SW	4.07	20.1%	10.9%	2.3%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	353	75
Edgar Olmos L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	27	SW	3.64	18.9%	9.7%	1.7%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	203	72
Jordan Carr L 2024 · 4.42 FIP	27	SW	4.42	13.1%	8.8%	2.4%	.295	6.61	11.8%	-1.7%	47	+2.19	3.49	269	72
Carlos Teller L 2015 · 3.75 FIP	28	SP-	3.75	13.8%	10.9%	0.8%	.329	4.75	13.3%	3.1%	187	+1.00	3.75	333	70
Austin Warner L 2022 · 4.78 FIP	28	SW	4.78	16.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	491	69
Chris Michalak L 2001 · 4.92 FIP	30	SP-	4.92	11.0%	8.2%	3.1%	.291	4.71	7.0%	-4.3%	14	-0.21	4.71	186	67
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	66
Kyle Hunter L 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SU	4.50	14.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	188	65
Randy Keisler L 2005 · 5.07 FIP	29	SW	5.07	16.4%	9.9%	3.8%	.295	5.51	6.5%	0.0%	17	+0.44	5.07	135	65
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	65
John Rheinecker L 2007 · 5.13 FIP	28	SW	5.13	16.7%	10.9%	3.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	121	65
Eric Wooten L 2015 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	14.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	116	64
John Anderson L 2016 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	14.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	235	64
Mike Montgomery L 2017 · 3.79 FIP	28	SW	3.79	18.5%	9.4%	1.9%	.245	4.36	16.6%	9.3%	215	+0.57	3.43	764	63
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	63
Enrique Lechuga L 2015 · 4.70 FIP	29	SP-	4.70	10.0%	10.5%	2.0%	.354	3.78	10.5%	4.4%	59	-0.92	3.78	137	63
Everett Teaford L 2012 · 5.47 FIP	28	SW	5.47	13.3%	8.0%	4.5%	.291	4.42	13.9%	6.3%	103	-1.05	4.42	208	62
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	62
Colton Turner L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	28	SW	4.23	22.4%	9.2%	3.4%	.345	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	325	62

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	102	17.4%	12.2%	0.96	4.87
Sam Deduno ('10-'15, 1 WAR*)	1.6	79	16.5%*	11.9%*	0.92*	4.66*
Mike Mimbs ('97)	1.3	88	14.9%	11.9%	0.99	5.03
Robinson Tejeda ('11)	2.2	74	19.1%	12.6%	0.96	4.42
Frank Reberger ('68-'72, -1 WAR*)	1.9	97	19.1%*	10.9%*	1.08*	5.19*
Doug Capilla ('76-'81, 1 WAR*)	1.5	73	20.1%*	13.5%*	0.98*	4.78*
Mike Jones ('80-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.1	75	16.0%*	10.9%*	1.16*	4.80*