Will Johnston — OGILVIE

Will Johnston P Midland RockHounds

Age 25 LHP 6'3" / 225 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION37 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107115vR 123

ERA4.73

FIP4.73

K%22.7%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%10.4%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 43 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4550

CMD4050

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	ROK MLE	ACL Athletics	4	1	7	30	6	5	1	25%	1.7	20.0%	16.7%	3.3%	3.3%	5.40	5.35	—
2023	22	ROK MLE	ACL Athletics	4	1	7	30	6	5	1	25%	1.7	20.0%	16.7%	3.3%	3.3%	5.40	5.35	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	ACL Athletics	4	1	7	30	6	5	1	25%	1.7	20.0%	16.7%	3.3%	3.3%	5.40	5.50	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	15	100	413	137	40	8	56%	3.7	24.8%	11.6%	13.2%	2.7%	3.88	3.94	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	15	100	413	137	40	8	56%	3.7	24.8%	11.6%	13.2%	2.7%	3.88	3.94	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	15	100	413	137	40	8	56%	3.7	33.2%	9.7%	23.5%	1.9%	3.88	2.60	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	6	70	301	87	38	7	14%	1.6	23.5%	13.2%	10.2%	2.4%	4.89	4.10	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	6	70	301	87	38	7	14%	1.6	23.5%	13.2%	10.2%	2.4%	4.89	4.10	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	6	70	301	87	38	7	14%	1.6	28.9%	12.6%	16.3%	2.3%	4.89	3.54	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	36	1	37	166	41	28	4	3%	1.0	21.6%	19.8%	1.8%	3.2%	4.34	5.54	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	36	1	37	166	41	28	4	3%	1.0	21.6%	19.8%	1.8%	3.2%	4.34	5.54	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	ROK RAW	OAK	3	1	4	16	1	1	0	33%	1.3	6.2%	6.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.36	—
2026	25	AA RAW	OAK	33	0	33	150	40	27	4	0%	1.0	26.7%	18.0%	8.7%	2.7%	4.86	4.59	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	OAK	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	22.7%	12.3%	10.4%	2.9%	4.73	4.73	-0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	OAK	—	—	43	191	47	31	5	—	—	24.4%	16.3%	8.2%	2.5%	4.39	5.43	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	OAK	85	0	90	379	87	45	11	0%	1.1	22.9%	11.8%	11.0%	2.9%	4.67	4.66	-0.1
2028	27	MLB MLE	OAK	84	0	88	373	85	43	11	0%	1.1	22.8%	11.6%	11.2%	3.0%	4.65	4.66	-0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	OAK	82	0	86	362	82	42	11	0%	1.0	22.6%	11.6%	11.1%	3.1%	4.69	4.73	-0.2
2030	29	MLB MLE	OAK	78	0	82	345	77	40	11	0%	1.0	22.4%	11.7%	10.7%	3.2%	4.78	4.85	-0.3
2031	30	MLB MLE	OAK	73	0	77	325	78	36	11	0%	1.1	24.0%	11.2%	12.8%	3.4%	4.76	4.75	-0.2
2027	26	MLB CTX	OAK	37	0	39	165	38	19	5	0%	1.1	22.9%	11.8%	11.0%	2.9%	4.67	4.66	-0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	OAK	53	0	56	236	54	27	7	0%	1.1	22.8%	11.6%	11.2%	3.0%	4.65	4.66	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	OAK	62	0	65	274	62	32	8	0%	1.0	22.6%	11.6%	11.1%	3.1%	4.69	4.73	-0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	OAK	64	0	67	283	63	33	9	0%	1.0	22.4%	11.7%	10.7%	3.2%	4.78	4.85	-0.2
2031	30	MLB CTX	OAK	63	0	66	279	67	31	10	0%	1.0	24.0%	11.2%	12.8%	3.4%	4.76	4.75	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		279	0	293	1237	284	143	39	0%	1.1	23.0%	11.6%	11.4%	3.2%	4.72	4.36	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	194	98	27	0%	1.1	23.0%	11.6%	11.4%	3.2%	4.72	4.36	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		110	23	214	910	215	126	25	21%	1.9	23.6%	13.8%	9.8%	2.7%	4.34	4.33	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		103	22	200	852	201	118	23	21%	1.9	23.6%	13.8%	9.8%	2.7%	4.34	4.33	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Will Johnston (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.73	22.7%	12.3%	2.9%	—	4.68	22.8%	11.1%	264	-0.05	—	—	—
Tony Cingrani L 2015 · 3.60 FIP	26	SU	3.60	25.8%	12.9%	1.9%	.305	3.84	25.4%	15.7%	128	+0.24	1.68	186	87
Brian Flynn L 2016 · 3.80 FIP	26	SU	3.80	21.3%	11.1%	2.0%	.258	4.39	16.6%	8.2%	198	+0.59	3.80	277	86
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	86
Garrett Irvin L 2023 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	23.2%	11.6%	3.3%	.283	4.32	17.7%	2.9%	39	-0.10	4.32	110	85
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	83
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	83
Paul Fry L 2017 · 4.66 FIP	25	SU	4.66	21.2%	11.7%	3.4%	.338	3.43	24.6%	14.6%	159	-1.23	1.78	560	82
Andrew Walling L 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SU	4.20	23.7%	14.8%	2.2%	.272	3.90	22.0%	8.8%	105	-0.30	3.14	161	82
Trey Cumbie L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	25	SU	4.54	25.3%	15.3%	3.0%	.284	5.07	23.3%	7.2%	42	+0.53	3.44	152	81
Chazz Martinez L 2023 · 3.76 FIP	23	SU	3.76	22.2%	12.7%	1.7%	.361	3.43	20.5%	7.7%	135	-0.33	3.09	199	81
Seth Clark L 2023 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.287	5.23	18.4%	0.6%	82	+1.00	4.23	128	81
Thomas Burrows L 2019 · 3.99 FIP	24	SU	3.99	22.0%	10.5%	2.6%	.276	3.93	26.5%	12.9%	82	-0.06	2.67	271	80
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	80
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	80
Wesley Moore L 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	25.9%	13.2%	1.9%	.254	4.18	18.3%	5.6%	58	+0.56	3.62	111	80
Giovanni Soto L 2016 · 4.01 FIP	25	SU	4.01	21.3%	14.3%	1.6%	.348	4.18	25.6%	15.1%	25	+0.17	3.30	128	80
Kyle Bird L 2018 · 3.70 FIP	25	SU	3.70	24.4%	11.3%	2.2%	.250	5.52	20.6%	6.3%	47	+1.82	2.70	379	80
Jared Tobey L 2021 · 4.11 FIP	25	SU	4.11	23.6%	11.8%	2.8%	.341	8.03	20.1%	1.1%	25	+3.92	3.99	158	80
Hunter Schryver L 2019 · 3.76 FIP	24	SU	3.76	19.2%	11.2%	1.6%	.335	4.47	19.5%	6.0%	80	+0.71	3.58	206	80
Jerry Vasto L 2017 · 4.16 FIP	25	SU	4.16	22.2%	10.2%	3.0%	.382	3.52	24.0%	12.5%	38	-0.64	2.89	206	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	82	22.9%	11.7%	1.20	4.71
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64