Will Johnston
P
Midland RockHounds
+0.4
WAR
Age 25
LHP
6'3" / 225 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.5 · 2027
ERA4.63
FIP4.63
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.1%
BB%11.7%
K-BB%11.3%
IP77
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2027
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | ACL Athletics | 4 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 6 | 5 | 1 | — | — | — | 5.40 | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 27 | 15 | 100 | 413 | 137 | 40 | 8 | 24.8% | 11.6% | 2.7% | 3.88 | 3.96 | +1.5 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | 43 | 6 | 70 | 301 | 87 | 38 | 7 | 23.6% | 13.7% | 2.4% | 4.89 | 4.18 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | OAK | 14 | 14 | 77 | 326 | 75 | 38 | 10 | 23.1% | 11.7% | 2.9% | 4.63 | 4.63 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 14 | 14 | 77 | 326 | 76 | 37 | 10 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 2.9% | 4.59 | 4.58 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 14 | 14 | 77 | 323 | 75 | 37 | 10 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 3.0% | 4.57 | 4.57 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 14 | 14 | 76 | 319 | 74 | 36 | 10 | 23.3% | 11.2% | 3.0% | 4.57 | 4.58 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 13 | 13 | 74 | 312 | 72 | 35 | 9 | 23.2% | 11.3% | 3.0% | 4.60 | 4.62 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 13 | 13 | 72 | 302 | 69 | 34 | 9 | 22.9% | 11.4% | 3.1% | 4.65 | 4.68 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 13 | 13 | 69 | 292 | 66 | 34 | 9 | 22.7% | 11.5% | 3.2% | 4.72 | 4.76 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 12 | 12 | 66 | 280 | 63 | 33 | 9 | 22.4% | 11.6% | 3.3% | 4.80 | 4.85 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 12 | 12 | 63 | 267 | 59 | 32 | 9 | 22.1% | 11.8% | 3.3% | 4.89 | 4.94 | +0.0 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | OAK | 11 | 11 | 60 | 254 | 55 | 31 | 9 | 21.8% | 12.0% | 3.4% | 4.99 | 5.05 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | OAK | 57 | — | 57 | 239 | 51 | 29 | 8 | 21.4% | 12.2% | 3.6% | 5.10 | 5.18 | -0.1 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | OAK | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 47 | 28 | 8 | 20.9% | 12.5% | 3.7% | 5.23 | 5.31 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 74 | 22 | 176 | 744 | 180 | 94 | 20 | 24.1% | 12.7% | 2.6% | 4.34 | 4.11 | +2.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 84 | 25 | 200 | 844 | 204 | 107 | 23 | 24.1% | 12.7% | 2.6% | 4.34 | 4.11 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Will Johnston (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.63 | 23.1% | 11.7% | 2.9% | — | 4.58 | 23.3% | 12.0% | 229 | -0.05 | — | — | — |
| Colton Johnson L 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 89 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.93 | 22.0% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .294 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.65 | 3.93 | 264 | 88 |
| Brian Flynn L 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.82 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 2.0% | .258 | 4.38 | 16.6% | 8.2% | 198 | +0.56 | 3.82 | 277 | 87 |
| Tony Cingrani L 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.62 | 25.8% | 12.9% | 1.9% | .305 | 3.93 | 25.4% | 15.7% | 128 | +0.31 | 1.66 | 186 | 87 |
| Will Gilbert L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.40 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 141 | 86 |
| Sean Mellen L 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 101 | 86 |
| Thomas Burrows L 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.04 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .276 | 3.93 | 26.5% | 12.9% | 82 | -0.11 | 2.69 | 271 | 84 |
| Carson Skipper L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.79 | 19.9% | 9.1% | 2.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 176 | 84 |
| James Paxton L 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.31 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.9% | .288 | 2.87 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.44 | 2.40 | 924 | 83 |
| Bailey Horn L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.07 | 21.9% | 12.0% | 2.4% | .322 | 4.68 | 22.8% | 10.7% | 110 | +0.61 | 3.96 | 265 | 83 |
| Josh Trentadue L 2024 · 3.67 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.67 | 23.1% | 12.0% | 1.8% | .249 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 148 | 83 |
| Jerry Vasto L 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.12 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 2.9% | .382 | 3.51 | 24.0% | 12.5% | 38 | -0.61 | 2.88 | 206 | 83 |
| Michael Theofanopoulos L 2025 · 3.60 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.60 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 1.9% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 201 | 82 |
| Hunter Schryver L 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.77 | 19.2% | 11.2% | 1.6% | .335 | 4.51 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 80 | +0.74 | 3.58 | 206 | 82 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2027 · 5.12 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.12 | 21.7% | 12.3% | 4.2% | .342 | 3.76 | 24.6% | 10.5% | 53 | -1.36 | 3.76 | 161 | 81 |
| Chasen Shreve L 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.38 | 25.5% | 12.4% | 3.4% | .267 | 4.49 | 26.8% | 15.9% | 148 | +0.11 | 3.79 | 470 | 81 |
| Cy Nielson L 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.33 | 20.9% | 12.7% | 2.5% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 161 | 81 |
| Kyle Bird L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.70 | 24.4% | 11.3% | 2.2% | .250 | 5.55 | 20.6% | 6.3% | 47 | +1.85 | 2.70 | 379 | 81 |
| Williams Jerez L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.07 | 17.8% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .294 | 3.82 | 24.0% | 15.1% | 127 | -0.25 | 3.59 | 364 | 80 |
| José Manuel Fernández L 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.76 | 21.4% | 13.1% | 3.3% | .253 | 5.10 | 13.6% | 4.9% | 61 | +0.34 | 3.35 | 263 | 80 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.6M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.8M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.3M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.1M |
| Totals | $4M | $9M | +$4M | ||