Andrew Walling — OGILVIE

Andrew Walling P Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 26 LHP 6'2" / 220 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION10 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 105113vR 121

ERA4.61

FIP4.61

K%21.1%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%9.0%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 15 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	0	11	52	12	9	0	0%	1.6	23.1%	17.3%	5.8%	0.0%	6.35	3.34	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	0	11	52	12	9	0	0%	1.6	23.1%	17.3%	5.8%	0.0%	6.35	3.36	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	56	231	73	29	4	0%	1.4	23.7%	14.8%	9.0%	2.3%	3.23	4.20	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	56	231	73	29	4	0%	1.4	23.7%	14.8%	9.0%	2.3%	3.23	4.20	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	56	231	73	29	4	0%	1.4	31.6%	12.6%	19.0%	1.7%	3.23	2.97	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	53	225	67	26	4	0%	1.2	23.4%	13.2%	10.1%	2.3%	2.19	4.05	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	53	225	67	26	4	0%	1.2	23.4%	13.2%	10.1%	2.3%	2.19	4.05	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	53	225	67	26	4	0%	1.2	29.8%	11.6%	18.2%	1.8%	2.19	3.02	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	43	0	48	209	54	22	2	0%	1.1	20.1%	10.9%	9.2%	0.6%	3.97	3.14	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	43	0	48	209	54	22	2	0%	1.1	20.1%	10.9%	9.2%	0.6%	3.97	3.14	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	43	0	48	209	54	22	2	0%	1.1	25.8%	10.5%	15.3%	1.0%	3.97	2.76	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	11	1	10	58	16	15	2	9%	0.9	22.9%	23.3%	-0.4%	3.8%	9.58	6.20	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	11	1	10	58	16	15	2	9%	0.9	22.9%	23.3%	-0.4%	3.8%	9.58	6.20	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AAA RAW	PHI	11	1	10	58	16	15	2	9%	0.9	27.6%	25.9%	1.7%	3.4%	9.58	5.94	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	PHI	5	0	5	21	4	3	1	0%	1.0	21.1%	12.1%	9.0%	2.5%	4.61	4.61	-0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	PHI	—	—	15	79	20	18	3	—	—	25.8%	22.2%	3.7%	3.2%	7.96	5.68	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	PHI	56	0	59	247	53	29	6	0%	1.0	21.3%	11.9%	9.4%	2.6%	4.60	4.62	-0.0
2028	28	MLB MLE	PHI	54	0	57	240	51	28	7	0%	1.1	21.3%	11.8%	9.5%	2.7%	4.64	4.68	-0.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	PHI	24	0	25	106	22	13	3	0%	1.0	21.3%	11.9%	9.4%	2.6%	4.60	4.62	-0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	PHI	34	0	36	152	32	18	4	0%	1.1	21.3%	11.8%	9.5%	2.7%	4.64	4.68	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		58	0	61	257	55	31	7	0%	1.1	21.3%	11.9%	9.5%	2.7%	4.62	4.28	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	180	102	23	0%	1.1	21.3%	11.9%	9.5%	2.7%	4.62	4.28	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		145	1	178	775	175	109	14	1%	1.2	22.5%	14.1%	8.5%	1.8%	3.68	3.96	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		163	1	200	869	196	123	16	1%	1.2	22.5%	14.1%	8.5%	1.8%	3.68	3.96	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andrew Walling (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.61	21.1%	12.1%	2.5%	—	4.65	21.3%	9.4%	115	+0.04	—	—	—
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	87
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	87
Matt Purke L 2016 · 4.25 FIP	26	SU	4.25	19.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.284	3.54	21.4%	8.8%	112	-0.71	3.01	226	87
Tom Windle L 2018 · 4.56 FIP	26	SU	4.56	19.0%	11.8%	2.9%	.269	4.37	17.2%	1.8%	74	-0.19	3.68	330	85
Jeremy Horst L 2015 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	18.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.291	3.71	15.1%	2.7%	48	-0.38	3.71	108	85
Brendan Nail L 2022 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	22.6%	12.5%	2.7%	.311	4.39	18.9%	8.4%	53	+0.12	3.45	165	85
Ashur Tolliver L 2015 · 3.49 FIP	27	SU	3.49	19.8%	12.8%	0.8%	.312	4.58	17.8%	3.7%	76	+1.09	3.49	134	85
Brian Flynn L 2016 · 3.80 FIP	26	SU	3.80	21.3%	11.1%	2.0%	.258	4.39	16.6%	8.2%	198	+0.59	3.80	277	84
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	84
Michael Johnson L 2017 · 4.20 FIP	26	SU	4.20	21.7%	9.5%	3.1%	.272	5.19	13.4%	3.4%	67	+0.99	3.92	256	84
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	84
Mason Melotakis L 2017 · 3.58 FIP	26	SU	3.58	21.9%	10.9%	1.8%	.264	5.66	12.0%	0.6%	30	+2.08	3.32	142	84
Brad Kuntz L 2018 · 4.10 FIP	26	SU	4.10	20.9%	11.7%	2.4%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	2.35	197	84
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	83
Elvis Araujo L 2016 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	21.0%	9.8%	2.8%	.308	5.18	22.9%	11.1%	38	+1.09	2.46	120	83
Hunter Cervenka L 2016 · 3.70 FIP	26	SU	3.70	23.1%	12.6%	1.7%	.246	4.02	23.6%	11.4%	121	+0.32	3.08	194	83
Tony Cingrani L 2015 · 3.60 FIP	26	SU	3.60	25.8%	12.9%	1.9%	.305	3.84	25.4%	15.7%	128	+0.24	1.68	186	83
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	83
Bryan Harper L 2016 · 4.13 FIP	26	SU	4.13	19.3%	9.6%	2.6%	.197	4.63	14.9%	1.0%	46	+0.50	4.13	133	82
Jeff Ibarra L 2016 · 3.75 FIP	28	SU	3.75	17.8%	9.7%	1.7%	.321	3.29	19.2%	13.8%	66	-0.46	2.85	101	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	21.2%	11.9%	1.01	4.62
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82