Andrew Walling

P Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 27 LHP 6'2" / 220 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	44	0	53	2.19	3.02	29.8%	11.6%	—	K 23.4% · BB 13.2% · FIP 4.05
2025	25	MIX3 levels	43	0	48	3.97	2.76	25.8%	10.5%	—	K 20.1% · BB 10.9% · FIP 3.14
2026	26	AAAPHI	11	1	10	9.58	6.87	27.6%	25.9%	—	K 23.7% · BB 23.3% · FIP 6.13
2027PROJ	27	MLBPHI	6	0	6	5.03	5.03	21.6%	14.4%	-0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	28	MLBPHI	18	0	19	5.01	5.05	21.7%	14.1%	-0.1
2029PROJ59% MLB	29	MLBPHI	21	0	22	5.05	5.12	21.6%	13.9%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control45Command50

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsAaron Brown (age 27) · Nick Hagadone (age 27) · Colton Johnson (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112121vR 129

ERA5.03

FIP5.03

K%21.6%

BB%14.4%

K-BB%7.2%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	0	11	52	12	9	0	0%	1.6	23.1%	17.3%	5.8%	0.0%	6.35	3.34	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	0	11	52	12	9	0	0%	1.6	23.1%	17.3%	5.8%	0.0%	6.35	3.36	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	56	231	73	29	4	0%	1.4	23.7%	14.8%	9.0%	2.3%	3.23	4.20	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	56	231	73	29	4	0%	1.4	31.6%	12.6%	19.0%	1.7%	3.23	2.97	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	53	225	67	26	4	0%	1.2	23.4%	13.2%	10.1%	2.3%	2.19	4.05	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	53	225	67	26	4	0%	1.2	23.4%	13.2%	10.1%	2.3%	2.19	4.05	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	53	225	67	26	4	0%	1.2	29.8%	11.6%	18.2%	1.8%	2.19	3.02	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	43	0	48	209	54	22	2	0%	1.1	20.1%	10.9%	9.2%	0.6%	3.97	3.14	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	43	0	48	209	54	22	2	0%	1.1	20.1%	10.9%	9.2%	0.6%	3.97	3.14	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	43	0	48	209	54	22	2	0%	1.1	25.8%	10.5%	15.3%	1.0%	3.97	2.76	—
2026	26	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	11	1	10	58	16	15	2	9%	0.9	23.7%	23.3%	0.4%	3.8%	9.58	6.13	—
2026	26	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	11	1	10	58	16	15	2	9%	0.9	23.7%	23.3%	0.4%	3.8%	9.58	6.13	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	11	1	10	58	16	15	2	9%	0.9	27.6%	25.9%	1.7%	3.4%	9.58	6.87	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	PHI	6	0	6	25	5	4	1	0%	1.0	21.6%	14.4%	7.2%	2.8%	5.03	5.03	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	PHI	42	0	44	188	41	26	6	0%	1.1	21.7%	14.1%	7.6%	2.9%	5.01	5.05	-0.3
2029	29	MLB MLE	PHI	36	0	37	158	34	22	5	0%	1.0	21.6%	13.9%	7.7%	3.1%	5.05	5.12	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	PHI	18	0	19	80	17	11	2	0%	1.1	21.7%	14.1%	7.6%	2.9%	5.01	5.05	-0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	PHI	21	0	22	93	20	13	3	0%	1.0	21.6%	13.9%	7.7%	3.1%	5.05	5.12	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		39	0	41	173	37	24	5	0%	1.1	21.6%	14.0%	7.7%	3.0%	5.03	4.71	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	180	117	24	0%	1.1	21.6%	14.0%	7.7%	3.0%	5.03	4.71	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		145	1	178	775	175	109	14	1%	1.2	22.6%	14.1%	8.5%	1.8%	3.68	3.96	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		163	1	200	869	197	123	16	1%	1.2	22.6%	14.1%	8.5%	1.8%	3.68	3.96	-1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 10 IPFIP 5.94 → 6.13 (+0.19)K% 27.6% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.59%	—	×0.860	23.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	25.86%	—	×0.900	23.28%
HR / BF /BF	3.45%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.79%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.94 → 6.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAReading Fightin Phils · 42 IPFIP 2.56 → 3.14 (+0.57)K% 24.9% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.86%	—	×0.810	20.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.94%	—	×1.100	10.94%
HR / BF /BF	0.55%	÷1.036	×1.200	0.64%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 2.56 → 3.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 5 IPFIP 5.12 → 5.64 (+0.52)K% 30.4% → 26.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.43%	—	×0.860	26.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.39%	—	×0.900	15.65%
HR / BF /BF	4.35%	÷0.947	×1.100	5.05%

Result: FIP 5.12 → 5.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 36 IPFIP 3.72 → 4.94 (+1.22)K% 28.5% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.48%	—	×0.770	21.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.23%	—	×1.150	17.52%
HR / BF /BF	1.99%	÷0.926	×1.250	2.68%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 3.72 → 4.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAReading Fightin Phils · 17 IPFIP 1.62 → 2.23 (+0.61)K% 32.4% → 26.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.43%	—	×0.810	26.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.05%	—	×1.100	4.46%
HR / BF /BF	1.35%	÷1.137	×1.200	1.43%

Result: FIP 1.62 → 2.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AClearwater Threshers · 39 IPFIP 4.04 → 5.37 (+1.33)K% 27.1% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.06%	—	×0.740	20.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.29%	—	×1.180	18.05%
HR / BF /BF	2.35%	÷1.000	×1.300	3.06%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.04 → 5.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 17 IPFIP -0.01 → 0.94 (+0.95)K% 44.3% → 34.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	44.26%	—	×0.770	34.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.92%	—	×1.150	5.66%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.858	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP -0.01 → 0.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AClearwater Threshers · 7 IPFIP 3.10 → 4.06 (+0.96)K% 25.7% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.71%	—	×0.740	19.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.14%	—	×1.180	20.23%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.10 → 4.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andrew Walling (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.03	21.6%	14.4%	2.8%	—	5.08	21.6%	7.7%	82	+0.05	—	—	—
Aaron Brown L 2019 · 4.04 FIP	27	SU	4.04	22.9%	13.5%	2.1%	.317	4.77	19.4%	6.7%	129	+0.73	4.04	269	87
Nick Hagadone L 2013 · 4.75 FIP	27	SU	4.75	22.6%	15.0%	3.0%	.253	3.34	25.9%	19.0%	51	-1.41	2.97	141	86
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	86
Stephen Randolph L 2003 · 4.83 FIP	29	SU	4.83	18.5%	14.8%	2.6%	.247	5.69	15.8%	-3.0%	82	+0.86	4.83	155	85
Mitchell Tyranski L 2024 · 4.90 FIP	26	SU	4.90	21.0%	12.3%	3.7%	.234	3.46	20.5%	4.0%	57	-1.44	3.46	145	84
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	83
Matt Thornton L 2004 · 4.18 FIP	27	SU	4.18	20.3%	16.2%	1.4%	.304	4.18	21.8%	11.5%	167	-0.00	1.71	663	82
Trey Jeans L 2022 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	22.3%	16.5%	3.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.74	111	80
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	80
Hunter Cervenka L 2017 · 5.91 FIP	27	SU	5.91	18.9%	15.0%	4.6%	.282	3.10	25.9%	15.0%	81	-2.81	3.08	194	80
Jordan Harrison L 2018 · 3.87 FIP	27	SU	3.87	19.4%	14.3%	1.1%	.246	3.80	19.1%	9.4%	49	-0.07	3.80	244	79
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	79
Jeff Belge L 2024 · 4.20 FIP	26	SU	4.20	19.4%	12.3%	2.1%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	175	79
Robby Ahlstrom L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	25	SU	3.89	21.9%	11.6%	2.1%	.294	4.02	20.7%	11.1%	120	+0.13	3.79	332	79
David Rollins L 2017 · 5.58 FIP	27	SU	5.58	18.0%	12.1%	4.5%	.260	5.68	15.9%	12.5%	20	+0.10	3.59	132	79
John Bale L 2001 · 4.41 FIP	27	SU	4.41	18.6%	15.0%	1.8%	.219	4.12	19.0%	13.9%	46	-0.29	2.49	168	79
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	78
Ty Madrigal L 2022 · 5.75 FIP	25	SU	5.75	17.6%	15.2%	4.0%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	107	78
Mike Zagurski L 2012 · 4.48 FIP	29	SU	4.48	20.9%	11.7%	3.0%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	78
Graeme Stinson L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	19.5%	15.6%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	146	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	47	21.6%	14.2%	1.14	5.03
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*