Robby Ahlstrom — OGILVIE

Robby Ahlstrom P Texas Rangers

Age 27 LHP 6'3" / 195 lbs MLB

2026 ROS PROJECTION66 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 95103vR 111

ERA4.25

FIP4.25

K%20.4%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%9.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 72 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†4550

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4894.4

Whiff%

p5526.0%

p4421.3%

xwOBA vs

p510.311

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	17	89	399	106	31	13	77%	4.1	20.1%	9.0%	11.1%	3.8%	5.04	4.62	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	17	89	399	106	31	13	77%	4.1	26.6%	7.8%	18.8%	3.3%	5.04	3.66	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	58	255	79	32	4	0%	1.5	24.4%	14.2%	10.3%	2.0%	3.86	3.95	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	58	255	79	32	4	0%	1.5	24.4%	14.2%	10.3%	2.0%	3.86	3.95	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	58	255	79	32	4	0%	1.5	31.0%	12.5%	18.4%	1.6%	3.86	2.93	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	1	64	270	72	30	5	2%	1.4	21.7%	11.6%	10.1%	2.1%	2.53	3.90	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	1	64	270	72	30	5	2%	1.4	21.7%	11.6%	10.1%	2.1%	2.53	3.90	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	1	64	270	72	30	5	2%	1.4	26.7%	11.1%	15.6%	1.9%	2.53	3.27	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	60	260	62	36	4	0%	1.1	18.3%	13.2%	5.1%	2.1%	3.28	4.38	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	60	260	62	36	4	0%	1.1	18.3%	13.2%	5.1%	2.1%	3.28	4.38	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	0	60	260	62	36	4	0%	1.1	23.8%	13.8%	10.0%	1.5%	3.28	3.70	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			41	0	36	160	34	10	7	0%	0.9	21.2%	6.2%	15.0%	4.4%	5.94	4.56	-0.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	62	0	66	276	67	18	9	0%	1.1	22.2%	6.2%	16.0%	3.2%	4.52	3.74	+0.6
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	62	0	66	276	67	18	9	0%	1.1	22.2%	6.2%	16.0%	3.2%	4.52	3.74	+0.6
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AAA RAW	TEX	21	0	29	116	33	8	2	0%	1.4	28.4%	6.9%	21.6%	1.7%	2.76	2.52	—
2026	27	MLB RAW	TEX	41	0	36	160	34	10	7	0%	0.9	21.2%	6.2%	15.0%	4.4%	5.94	4.50	+0.0
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	TEX	41	0	36	160	34	10	7	0%	0.9	21.2%	6.2%	15.0%	4.4%	5.94	4.50	+0.0
ROS	27	MLB MLE	TEX	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	20.4%	11.1%	9.2%	2.7%	4.25	4.25	+0.0
ROS	27	MLB CTX	TEX	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	20.4%	11.1%	9.2%	2.7%	4.25	4.25	+0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	TEX	—	—	72	301	72	21	10	—	—	24.0%	6.9%	17.1%	3.2%	4.50	3.79	+0.7
FULL	27	MLB A+C	TEX	—	—	42	178	72	21	10	—	—	40.4%	11.7%	28.8%	5.4%	7.63	4.14	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	TEX	65	0	68	287	57	32	9	0%	1.0	20.0%	11.0%	8.9%	3.1%	4.88	4.92	-0.3
2028	29	MLB MLE	TEX	62	0	65	274	55	30	9	0%	1.0	20.0%	11.1%	8.9%	3.3%	4.93	5.00	-0.3
2027	28	MLB CTX	TEX	62	0	65	274	55	30	9	0%	1.0	20.0%	11.0%	8.9%	3.1%	4.88	4.92	-0.3
2028	29	MLB CTX	TEX	59	0	62	262	52	29	9	0%	1.1	20.0%	11.1%	8.9%	3.3%	4.93	5.00	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		167	0	168	717	145	72	25	0%	1.0	20.3%	10.0%	10.3%	3.5%	5.11	4.55	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		198	0	200	852	172	86	30	0%	1.0	20.3%	10.0%	10.3%	3.5%	5.11	4.55	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		222	18	338	1460	310	155	40	8%	1.5	21.2%	10.6%	10.6%	2.7%	3.94	4.16	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		131	11	200	865	184	92	24	8%	1.5	21.2%	10.6%	10.6%	2.7%	3.94	4.16	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Robby Ahlstrom (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.00	18.9%	13.3%	2.6%	—	4.96	20.0%	8.9%	133	-0.04	—	—	—
Jeremy Horst L 2015 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	18.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.291	3.71	15.1%	2.7%	48	-0.38	3.71	108	87
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	85
Aaron Brown L 2019 · 4.04 FIP	27	SU	4.04	22.9%	13.5%	2.1%	.317	4.77	19.4%	6.7%	129	+0.73	4.04	269	85
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	84
Tony Cingrani L 2016 · 4.19 FIP	27	SU	4.19	18.1%	13.3%	1.7%	.271	3.50	32.4%	26.1%	65	-0.69	1.68	186	83
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	82
David Rollins L 2017 · 5.58 FIP	27	SU	5.58	18.0%	12.1%	4.5%	.260	5.68	15.9%	12.5%	20	+0.10	3.59	132	81
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	81
Triston Polley L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	26	SU	4.15	17.8%	8.9%	2.6%	.331	4.53	17.4%	-0.3%	22	+0.38	4.15	151	80
Bryan Harper L 2016 · 4.13 FIP	26	SU	4.13	19.3%	9.6%	2.6%	.197	4.63	14.9%	1.0%	46	+0.50	4.13	133	80
Brad Kuntz L 2018 · 4.10 FIP	26	SU	4.10	20.9%	11.7%	2.4%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	2.35	197	80
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	79
Garrett Irvin L 2023 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	23.2%	11.6%	3.3%	.283	4.32	17.7%	2.9%	39	-0.10	4.32	110	79
Brendan Nail L 2023 · 4.39 FIP	27	SU	4.39	18.9%	10.5%	2.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	165	78
Adrian Gusman L 2019 · 4.31 FIP	27	SU	4.31	17.9%	9.7%	2.7%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	141	78
Bailey Horn L 2023 · 3.97 FIP	25	SU	3.97	20.7%	10.3%	2.4%	.322	4.62	21.8%	11.1%	110	+0.65	3.96	265	78
Kit Scheetz L 2021 · 5.08 FIP	27	SU	5.08	16.2%	13.6%	2.9%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.34	195	77
Andy Oliver L 2015 · 4.16 FIP	27	SU	4.16	23.4%	16.9%	1.6%	.283	4.56	19.2%	8.6%	108	+0.40	3.93	165	77
Ozzie Mendez L 2015 · 4.16 FIP	27	SU	4.16	14.6%	6.7%	2.6%	.269	3.99	11.3%	3.0%	68	-0.17	3.95	161	77
Andy Fisher L 2023 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	17.2%	10.9%	2.2%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	167	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	19.6%	11.8%	1.16	4.94
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64