Robby Ahlstrom
P
Round Rock Express
+0.1
WAR
Age 27
LHP
6'3" / 195 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.70
FIP4.70
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.4%
BB%12.4%
K-BB%8.9%
IP57
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF4545
CMD4040
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | 22 | 17 | 89 | 399 | 106 | 31 | 13 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 3.6% | 5.04 | 4.53 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 40 | 0 | 58 | 255 | 79 | 32 | 4 | 24.4% | 14.2% | 2.0% | 3.86 | 3.94 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 45 | 1 | 64 | 270 | 72 | 30 | 5 | 22.0% | 12.1% | 2.1% | 2.53 | 3.93 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 53 | 0 | 60 | 260 | 62 | 36 | 4 | 19.4% | 15.5% | 2.1% | 3.28 | 4.58 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 6 | 0 | 9 | 39 | 13 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.86 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | TEX | 57 | — | 57 | 239 | 50 | 32 | 6 | 20.8% | 13.2% | 2.6% | 4.85 | 4.85 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 66 | 278 | 63 | 34 | 7 | 22.5% | 12.1% | 2.6% | 4.71 | 4.16 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 56 | — | 56 | 236 | 49 | 30 | 6 | 21.0% | 12.9% | 2.7% | 4.81 | 4.82 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 54 | — | 54 | 230 | 48 | 29 | 6 | 21.0% | 12.7% | 2.8% | 4.81 | 4.83 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 47 | 28 | 6 | 21.0% | 12.6% | 2.8% | 4.83 | 4.87 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | TEX | 51 | — | 51 | 215 | 45 | 27 | 6 | 20.8% | 12.7% | 2.9% | 4.88 | 4.93 | +0.0 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | TEX | 49 | — | 49 | 207 | 42 | 27 | 6 | 20.5% | 12.8% | 3.0% | 4.96 | 5.01 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | TEX | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 40 | 26 | 6 | 20.2% | 13.0% | 3.1% | 5.05 | 5.11 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | TEX | 44 | — | 44 | 188 | 37 | 25 | 6 | 19.9% | 13.2% | 3.2% | 5.15 | 5.22 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | TEX | 42 | — | 42 | 177 | 34 | 24 | 6 | 19.5% | 13.4% | 3.3% | 5.27 | 5.34 | -0.2 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | TEX | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 31 | 23 | 6 | 19.0% | 13.7% | 3.4% | 5.39 | 5.48 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 166 | 18 | 281 | 1223 | 265 | 147 | 32 | 21.7% | 12.0% | 2.6% | 3.81 | 4.22 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 118 | 13 | 200 | 869 | 188 | 105 | 23 | 21.7% | 12.0% | 2.6% | 3.81 | 4.22 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Robby Ahlstrom (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.85 | 20.8% | 13.2% | 2.6% | — | 4.84 | 21.0% | 8.3% | 163 | -0.01 | — | — | — |
| Tony Cingrani L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.21 | 18.1% | 13.3% | 1.8% | .271 | 3.66 | 32.4% | 26.1% | 65 | -0.55 | 1.66 | 186 | 88 |
| Aaron Brown L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.02 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .317 | 4.77 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 129 | +0.75 | 4.02 | 269 | 88 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2028 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 87 |
| Juan Grullon L 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.67 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 134 | 85 |
| Andy Oliver L 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.15 | 23.4% | 16.9% | 1.6% | .283 | 4.60 | 19.2% | 8.6% | 108 | +0.45 | 3.97 | 165 | 84 |
| Greg Nappo L 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.12 | 17.2% | 10.3% | 4.0% | .285 | 6.29 | 12.3% | -0.3% | 11 | +1.17 | 3.36 | 144 | 83 |
| Ryan Och L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.84 | 19.5% | 13.9% | 1.1% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.54 | 124 | 83 |
| Marlon Arias L 2029 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .330 | 3.73 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.57 | 3.73 | 154 | 81 |
| Brian Moran L 2025 · 4.53 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.53 | 17.7% | 14.1% | 2.1% | .318 | 2.78 | 25.0% | 17.4% | 80 | -1.75 | 1.81 | 421 | 81 |
| Jordan Harrison L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.87 | 19.4% | 14.3% | 1.1% | .246 | 3.82 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 49 | -0.05 | 3.82 | 244 | 81 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2025 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.27 | 16.9% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.64 | 172 | 81 |
| A.J. Block L 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.65 | 22.7% | 12.4% | 1.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 203 | 81 |
| Brad Kuntz L 2025 · 4.09 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.09 | 20.9% | 11.7% | 2.3% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.35 | 197 | 80 |
| Will Gilbert L 2024 · 4.40 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.40 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 141 | 80 |
| Brendan Nail L 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.47 | 19.5% | 11.4% | 2.9% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 165 | 79 |
| Sean Keselica L 2025 · 4.48 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.48 | 18.0% | 14.5% | 1.9% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.79 | 235 | 79 |
| Peyton Alford L 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.82 | 22.9% | 12.1% | 3.9% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 229 | 79 |
| Jake Rice L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.73 | 21.8% | 13.8% | 1.3% | .273 | 6.14 | 16.9% | -1.3% | 54 | +2.41 | 3.14 | 199 | 79 |
| Josh D. Smith L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.06 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.0% | .306 | 3.40 | 23.1% | 12.3% | 164 | -0.66 | 3.20 | 335 | 79 |
| Tom Windle L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.66 | 19.7% | 12.9% | 1.1% | .272 | 5.87 | 11.7% | -9.3% | 23 | +2.21 | 3.66 | 330 | 79 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.