Robby Ahlstrom

P Texas Rangers

Age 28 LHP 6'3" / 195 lbs MLB peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	45	1	64	2.53	3.27	26.7%	11.1%	—	K 21.9% · BB 11.6% · FIP 3.89
2025	26	MIX2 levels	53	0	60	3.28	3.70	23.8%	13.8%	—	K 19.0% · BB 13.2% · FIP 4.32
2026	27	MIX2 levels	64	0	67	4.54	3.74	23.7%	7.1%	0.6	K 22.0% · BB 6.8% · FIP 3.79
2027PROJ	28	MLBTEX	30	0	31	4.49	4.59	21.0%	9.7%	-0.0
2028PROJ81% MLB	29	MLBTEX	24	0	25	4.62	4.72	20.6%	9.9%	-0.0
2029PROJ85% MLB	30	MLBTEX	19	0	20	4.78	4.90	20.1%	10.2%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.6 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo48

xwOBA vs44

K%40

Form7.27 ERA (proj 4.49) · K 21.5% (proj 21.0%) · BB 8.9% (proj 9.7%) · last 90d · 17 IP through Oct 27

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 1.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 90%

CompsColton Johnson (age 26) · Ashur Tolliver (age 28) · Adam Liberatore (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101109vR 117

ERA4.49

FIP4.59

K%21.0%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%11.2%

Proj IP42

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4894.4

Whiff%

p5225.6%

p4020.7%

xwOBA vs

p440.319

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	17	89	399	106	31	13	77%	4.1	20.1%	9.0%	11.1%	3.8%	5.04	4.62	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	17	89	399	106	31	13	77%	4.1	26.6%	7.8%	18.8%	3.3%	5.04	3.66	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	58	255	79	32	4	0%	1.5	24.4%	14.2%	10.3%	2.0%	3.86	3.95	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	58	255	79	32	4	0%	1.5	31.0%	12.5%	18.4%	1.6%	3.86	2.93	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	1	64	270	72	30	5	2%	1.4	21.9%	11.6%	10.2%	2.1%	2.53	3.89	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	1	64	270	72	30	5	2%	1.4	21.9%	11.6%	10.2%	2.1%	2.53	3.89	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	1	64	270	72	30	5	2%	1.4	26.7%	11.1%	15.6%	1.9%	2.53	3.27	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	60	260	62	36	4	0%	1.1	19.0%	13.2%	5.7%	2.1%	3.28	4.32	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	60	260	62	36	4	0%	1.1	19.0%	13.2%	5.7%	2.1%	3.28	4.32	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	0	60	260	62	36	4	0%	1.1	23.8%	13.8%	10.0%	1.5%	3.28	3.70	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	64	0	67	283	67	20	9	0%	1.1	22.0%	6.8%	15.3%	3.1%	4.54	3.79	+0.6
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	64	0	67	283	67	20	9	0%	1.1	22.0%	6.8%	15.3%	3.1%	4.54	3.79	+0.6
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	64	0	67	283	67	20	9	0%	1.1	23.7%	7.1%	16.6%	3.2%	4.54	3.74	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			42	0	37	164	34	12	7	0%	0.9	20.7%	7.3%	13.4%	4.3%	6.08	4.69	-0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	TEX	30	0	31	131	27	13	4	0%	1.0	21.0%	9.7%	11.2%	3.0%	4.49	4.59	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	TEX	30	0	31	131	27	13	4	0%	1.0	20.6%	9.9%	10.7%	3.2%	4.62	4.72	-0.1
2029	30	MLB MLE	TEX	22	0	23	97	19	10	3	0%	1.0	20.1%	10.2%	10.0%	3.3%	4.78	4.90	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	TEX	24	0	25	106	22	10	3	0%	1.0	20.6%	9.9%	10.7%	3.2%	4.62	4.72	-0.0
2029	30	MLB CTX	TEX	19	0	20	84	17	9	3	0%	1.1	20.1%	10.2%	10.0%	3.3%	4.78	4.90	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		85	0	82	353	73	31	13	0%	1.0	20.6%	8.8%	11.8%	3.7%	5.32	4.51	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		207	0	200	863	179	76	32	0%	1.0	20.6%	8.8%	11.8%	3.7%	5.32	4.51	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		224	18	339	1467	313	157	40	8%	1.5	21.4%	10.7%	10.6%	2.7%	3.95	4.15	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		132	11	200	865	185	93	24	8%	1.5	21.4%	10.7%	10.6%	2.7%	3.95	4.15	-0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAARound Rock Express · 30 IPFIP 2.53 → 2.87 (+0.33)K% 27.7% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.73%	—	×0.860	23.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.72%	—	×0.900	6.05%
HR / BF /BF	1.68%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.85%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.53 → 2.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAARound Rock Express · 53 IPFIP 4.05 → 4.32 (+0.27)K% 22.1% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.08%	—	×0.860	18.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.72%	—	×0.900	13.25%
HR / BF /BF	1.73%	÷0.913	×1.100	2.09%

Result: FIP 4.05 → 4.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 8 IPFIP 0.77 → 1.47 (+0.70)K% 37.9% → 30.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.93%	—	×0.810	30.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.90%	—	×1.100	7.59%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.976	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 0.77 → 1.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 44 IPFIP 2.89 → 3.66 (+0.77)K% 31.8% → 25.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.84%	—	×0.810	25.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.29%	—	×1.100	13.52%
HR / BF /BF	1.68%	÷1.080	×1.200	1.86%

Result: FIP 2.89 → 3.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAARound Rock Express · 20 IPFIP 4.03 → 4.34 (+0.31)K% 16.5% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.48%	—	×0.860	14.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.79%	—	×0.900	7.91%
HR / BF /BF	2.20%	÷0.928	×1.100	2.61%

Result: FIP 4.03 → 4.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Hickory Crawdads · 32 IPFIP 3.31 → 4.54 (+1.23)K% 30.9% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.94%	—	×0.770	23.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.95%	—	×1.150	14.89%
HR / BF /BF	2.16%	÷0.948	×1.250	2.85%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 3.31 → 4.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 26 IPFIP 2.48 → 3.24 (+0.76)K% 31.0% → 25.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.03%	—	×0.810	25.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.07%	—	×1.100	13.28%
HR / BF /BF	0.86%	÷0.974	×1.200	1.06%

Result: FIP 2.48 → 3.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Hickory Crawdads · 51 IPFIP 4.67 → 5.61 (+0.94)K% 24.9% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.89%	—	×0.770	19.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.86%	—	×1.150	10.19%
HR / BF /BF	4.64%	÷1.123	×1.250	5.16%

Result: FIP 4.67 → 5.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Robby Ahlstrom (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.80	20.4%	10.4%	54	+0.21	—	—	—
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	85
Ashur Tolliver L 2016 · 4.19 FIP	28	SU	4.19	21.3%	9.8%	3.0%	.308	5.03	13.8%	-5.1%	35	+0.84	3.49	134	85
Adam Liberatore L 2015 · 3.64 FIP	28	SU	3.64	21.1%	7.3%	2.5%	.267	3.17	23.3%	15.2%	73	-0.47	2.38	124	83
Jeff Ibarra L 2016 · 3.75 FIP	28	SU	3.75	17.8%	9.7%	1.7%	.321	3.29	19.2%	13.8%	66	-0.46	2.85	101	83
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	82
Kelly Wunsch L 2000 · 3.65 FIP	28	SU	3.65	19.7%	10.8%	1.5%	.261	4.17	17.6%	5.9%	90	+0.52	3.36	175	81
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	80
David Purcey L 2010 · 3.60 FIP	28	SU	3.60	22.4%	9.8%	2.1%	.245	4.29	16.7%	2.7%	59	+0.69	3.60	206	80
Mitchell Tyranski L 2024 · 4.90 FIP	26	SU	4.90	21.0%	12.3%	3.7%	.234	3.46	20.5%	4.0%	57	-1.44	3.46	145	80
Jordan Harrison L 2019 · 3.80 FIP	28	SU	3.80	19.1%	9.7%	2.0%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	244	79
Jeremy Horst L 2013 · 4.46 FIP	27	SU	4.46	17.1%	8.9%	3.0%	.356	3.92	17.2%	5.4%	108	-0.54	2.12	181	79
Jesse Carlson L 2009 · 3.72 FIP	28	SU	3.72	17.5%	6.2%	2.4%	.279	5.39	13.6%	8.5%	14	+1.67	3.28	141	78
Dario Alvarez L 2017 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	24.7%	12.4%	2.0%	.336	3.47	20.7%	8.3%	27	-0.21	3.47	160	78
Colt Hynes L 2013 · 4.76 FIP	28	SU	4.76	15.5%	8.3%	3.5%	.361	3.49	19.3%	12.8%	96	-1.27	3.42	169	78
Aaron Brown L 2019 · 4.04 FIP	27	SU	4.04	22.9%	13.5%	2.1%	.317	4.77	19.4%	6.7%	129	+0.73	4.04	269	77
Edward Paredes L 2016 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	24.1%	13.0%	1.4%	.225	3.55	23.7%	14.0%	86	+0.08	2.36	130	77
Josh Smoker L 2017 · 4.20 FIP	28	SU	4.20	25.5%	9.4%	3.8%	.329	4.35	20.2%	11.3%	59	+0.15	2.71	230	77
Patrick Schuster L 2017 · 4.51 FIP	26	SU	4.51	19.8%	8.3%	3.7%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	160	77
Jake McSteen L 2024 · 4.64 FIP	28	SU	4.64	19.7%	6.4%	4.4%	.348	2.22	18.9%	13.2%	18	-2.42	2.22	286	77
Josh Osich L 2017 · 5.00 FIP	28	SU	5.00	21.4%	12.9%	3.8%	.328	4.47	21.1%	14.1%	143	-0.53	3.41	315	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	33	20.7%	9.7%	1.34	5.01
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Jacob Barnes ('25)	1.7	48	22.0%	9.2%	1.15	4.79
Tom Dukes ('67-'72, -2 WAR*)	1.1	43	22.7%*	8.7%*	1.16*	5.37*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*