Robby Ahlstrom
P
Round Rock Express
Age 27
LHP
6'3" / 195 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION43 act + 56 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 105114vR 123
ERA4.60
FIP4.60
K%19.9%
BB%13.6%
K-BB%6.2%
ROS IP56
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 99 IP
Grades · Statcast · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5194.6
Whiff%
p2521.8%
K%
p1012.3%
xwOBA vs
p300.335
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 17 | 89 | 399 | 106 | 31 | 13 | 77% | 4.1 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 3.6% | 5.04 | 4.49 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 17 | 89 | 399 | 106 | 31 | 13 | 77% | 4.1 | 26.6% | 7.8% | 18.8% | 3.3% | 5.04 | 3.66 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 58 | 255 | 79 | 32 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 24.4% | 14.2% | 10.3% | 2.1% | 3.86 | 4.01 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 58 | 255 | 79 | 32 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 31.0% | 12.5% | 18.4% | 1.6% | 3.86 | 2.93 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 1 | 64 | 270 | 72 | 30 | 5 | 2% | 1.4 | 22.0% | 12.1% | 9.9% | 2.1% | 2.53 | 3.93 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 1 | 64 | 270 | 72 | 30 | 5 | 2% | 1.4 | 26.7% | 11.1% | 15.6% | 1.9% | 2.53 | 3.27 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 0 | 60 | 260 | 62 | 36 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.4% | 15.5% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 3.28 | 4.68 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 0 | 60 | 260 | 62 | 36 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.8% | 13.8% | 10.0% | 1.5% | 3.28 | 3.70 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 38 | 0 | 43 | 181 | 41 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.5% | 8.0% | 12.5% | 2.3% | 4.15 | 3.65 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | TEX | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 47 | 32 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 13.6% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 4.60 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | TEX | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 47 | 32 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 13.6% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 4.60 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 99 | 417 | 88 | 46 | 10 | — | — | 21.1% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 2.5% | 4.41 | 4.19 | +1.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 70 | 296 | 88 | 46 | 10 | — | — | 29.8% | 15.6% | 14.1% | 3.5% | 6.25 | 4.47 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 54 | 39 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.8% | 13.5% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 5.14 | 5.17 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 52 | 37 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.9% | 13.4% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 5.17 | 5.24 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 51 | 37 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.8% | 13.5% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 5.14 | 5.17 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 59 | 0 | 62 | 262 | 49 | 35 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.9% | 13.4% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 5.17 | 5.24 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 190 | 0 | 196 | 834 | 155 | 110 | 24 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.6% | 13.1% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 5.13 | 4.77 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 194 | 0 | 200 | 850 | 158 | 112 | 24 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.6% | 13.1% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 5.13 | 4.77 | +1.5 | ||
| Career | — | 198 | 18 | 315 | 1365 | 289 | 159 | 36 | 9% | 1.6 | 21.2% | 11.7% | 9.5% | 2.6% | 3.85 | 4.21 | +4.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 126 | 11 | 200 | 866 | 184 | 101 | 23 | 9% | 1.6 | 21.2% | 11.7% | 9.5% | 2.6% | 3.85 | 4.21 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Robby Ahlstrom (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.14 | 19.7% | 14.6% | 2.7% | — | 5.20 | 18.8% | 5.4% | 133 | +0.06 | — | — | — |
| Tony Cingrani L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.22 | 18.1% | 13.3% | 1.8% | .271 | 3.74 | 32.4% | 26.1% | 65 | -0.48 | 1.79 | 186 | 87 |
| Brian Moran L 2025 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.66 | 17.7% | 14.1% | 2.3% | .318 | 2.63 | 25.0% | 17.4% | 80 | -2.03 | 1.67 | 421 | 85 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.06 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.73 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.33 | 3.73 | 108 | 83 |
| Justin Wright L 2025 · 4.48 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.48 | 14.7% | 13.7% | 1.6% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.28 | 109 | 83 |
| Kit Scheetz L 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.20 | 16.2% | 13.6% | 3.2% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.34 | 195 | 82 |
| Sean Keselica L 2025 · 4.53 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.53 | 18.0% | 14.5% | 2.0% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.77 | 235 | 80 |
| Andy Oliver L 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.08 | 23.4% | 16.9% | 1.5% | .283 | 5.02 | 19.2% | 8.6% | 108 | +0.94 | 4.08 | 165 | 79 |
| Ty Madrigal L 2024 · 5.86 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.86 | 17.6% | 15.2% | 4.2% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.64 | 107 | 79 |
| Haylen Green L 2024 · 4.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.08 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 104 | 79 |
| Juan Grullon L 2025 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.86 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 134 | 79 |
| Chandler Jozwiak L 2024 · 5.23 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.23 | 16.9% | 15.3% | 2.9% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.88 | 161 | 79 |
| Will Lamb L 2025 · 5.47 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.47 | 20.0% | 14.0% | 4.2% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 178 | 79 |
| Graeme Stinson L 2024 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.75 | 19.5% | 15.6% | 2.4% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 146 | 79 |
| Jeff Belge L 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.45 | 19.4% | 12.3% | 2.6% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.27 | 175 | 78 |
| Jose Meraz L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.53 | 13.3% | 12.0% | 1.9% | .331 | 4.05 | 15.3% | 6.7% | 44 | -0.48 | 3.59 | 110 | 78 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.99 | 13.4% | 10.0% | 3.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 256 | 78 |
| Randy Labaut L 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.97 | 16.3% | 15.0% | 2.5% | .276 | 5.60 | 22.7% | 9.5% | 37 | +0.63 | 1.91 | 302 | 77 |
| Ryne Slack L 2025 · 5.43 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.43 | 13.9% | 12.1% | 3.6% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 212 | 77 |
| Stephen Peterson L 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.79 | 13.0% | 9.5% | 2.9% | .284 | 3.04 | 17.3% | 6.3% | 55 | -1.75 | 3.04 | 120 | 77 |
| Colton Johnson L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.49 | 12.2% | 12.6% | 1.5% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 106 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 68 | 19.1% | 13.8% | 1.10 | 5.15 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |