Jeff Belge — OGILVIE

Jeff Belge P Tennessee Smokies

Age 28 LHP 6'5" / 225 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106115vR 123

ERA4.71

FIP4.71

K%21.9%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%9.9%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	0	6	26	5	6	0	0%	1.1	19.2%	23.1%	-3.8%	0.0%	2.84	4.40	—
2019	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	0	6	26	5	6	0	0%	1.1	19.2%	23.1%	-3.8%	0.0%	2.84	4.36	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	31	0	43	202	63	33	4	0%	1.4	24.0%	18.8%	5.2%	2.7%	5.61	4.91	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	Great Lakes Loons	31	0	43	202	63	33	4	0%	1.4	31.2%	16.3%	14.9%	2.0%	5.61	3.68	—
2022	24	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	29	1	32	136	50	17	2	3%	1.1	28.3%	14.4%	13.9%	1.8%	3.66	3.53	—
2022	24	A+ RAW	Great Lakes Loons	29	1	32	136	50	17	2	3%	1.1	36.8%	12.5%	24.3%	1.5%	3.66	2.38	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	41	0	52	229	74	31	2	0%	1.3	26.2%	14.9%	11.3%	1.0%	3.48	3.30	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	41	0	52	229	74	31	2	0%	1.3	26.2%	14.9%	11.3%	1.0%	3.48	3.30	—
2023	25	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	41	0	52	229	74	31	2	0%	1.3	32.3%	13.5%	18.8%	0.9%	3.48	2.54	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	38	0	48	196	47	22	3	0%	1.3	19.4%	12.3%	7.1%	2.2%	3.40	4.20	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	38	0	48	196	47	22	3	0%	1.3	19.4%	12.3%	7.1%	2.2%	3.40	4.20	—
2024	26	AA RAW	Tennessee Smokies	38	0	48	196	47	22	3	0%	1.3	24.0%	11.2%	12.8%	1.5%	3.40	3.33	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	CHC	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	21.9%	12.1%	9.9%	2.8%	4.71	4.71	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	CHC	26	0	27	116	25	14	3	0%	1.1	21.8%	12.0%	9.8%	3.0%	4.75	4.80	-0.1
2027	29	MLB CTX	CHC	9	0	9	38	8	5	1	0%	1.0	21.8%	12.0%	9.8%	3.0%	4.75	4.80	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	8	4	1	0%	1.1	21.8%	12.0%	9.8%	3.0%	4.75	4.42	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	93	23	0%	1.1	21.8%	12.0%	9.8%	3.0%	4.75	4.42	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		145	1	181	789	190	122	14	1%	1.2	24.1%	15.4%	8.6%	1.8%	3.98	4.01	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		160	1	200	872	210	135	16	1%	1.2	24.1%	15.4%	8.6%	1.8%	3.98	4.01	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jeff Belge (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	21.9%	12.1%	2.8%	—	4.80	21.8%	9.8%	27	+0.09	—	—	—
Jeremy Horst L 2015 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	18.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.291	3.71	15.1%	2.7%	48	-0.38	3.71	108	85
Ashur Tolliver L 2016 · 4.19 FIP	28	SU	4.19	21.3%	9.8%	3.0%	.308	5.03	13.8%	-5.1%	35	+0.84	3.49	134	83
Jeff Ibarra L 2016 · 3.75 FIP	28	SU	3.75	17.8%	9.7%	1.7%	.321	3.29	19.2%	13.8%	66	-0.46	2.85	101	83
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	82
Dario Alvarez L 2017 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	24.7%	12.4%	2.0%	.336	3.47	20.7%	8.3%	27	-0.21	3.47	160	81
Aaron Brown L 2019 · 4.04 FIP	27	SU	4.04	22.9%	13.5%	2.1%	.317	4.77	19.4%	6.7%	129	+0.73	4.04	269	81
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	80
Josh Edgin L 2016 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	22.1%	13.2%	1.3%	.359	3.81	23.2%	13.6%	80	+0.17	3.63	113	80
Josh Osich L 2017 · 5.00 FIP	28	SU	5.00	21.4%	12.9%	3.8%	.328	4.47	21.1%	14.1%	143	-0.53	3.41	315	79
Trevor Lane L 2022 · 4.05 FIP	28	SU	4.05	22.2%	12.7%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	246	79
Adam Liberatore L 2015 · 3.64 FIP	28	SU	3.64	21.1%	7.3%	2.5%	.267	3.17	23.3%	15.2%	73	-0.47	2.38	124	79
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	78
Jordan Harrison L 2019 · 3.80 FIP	28	SU	3.80	19.1%	9.7%	2.0%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	244	78
Dan Runzler L 2015 · 3.78 FIP	30	SU	3.78	19.0%	13.1%	1.2%	.383	4.07	16.5%	4.0%	63	+0.29	3.78	127	77
Zac Rosscup L 2015 · 4.84 FIP	27	SU	4.84	24.6%	11.0%	4.4%	.296	2.85	29.5%	21.7%	40	-1.99	2.56	160	77
Tommy Layne L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	30	SU	3.61	21.7%	12.1%	1.5%	.284	3.34	20.2%	11.0%	97	-0.27	1.32	182	77
Mike Dunn L 2015 · 3.75 FIP	30	SU	3.75	27.7%	11.9%	2.7%	.294	4.21	22.5%	10.9%	110	+0.46	3.71	181	76
Sam Freeman L 2015 · 4.21 FIP	28	SU	4.21	23.4%	14.6%	2.2%	.265	3.52	22.0%	10.3%	166	-0.69	3.03	299	75
Triston Polley L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	26	SU	4.15	17.8%	8.9%	2.6%	.331	4.53	17.4%	-0.3%	22	+0.38	4.15	151	75
Adrian Gusman L 2019 · 4.31 FIP	27	SU	4.31	17.9%	9.7%	2.7%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	141	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	28	21.9%	12.0%	1.12	4.73
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58