Russell Smith
P
Biloxi Shuckers
Age 27
LHP
6'7" / 255 lbs
AA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 37 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103112vR 121
ERA4.50
FIP4.50
K%22.4%
BB%10.6%
K-BB%11.8%
ROS IP37
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 15 | 15 | 68 | 299 | 62 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 4.6 | 16.0% | 10.4% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 4.87 | 5.45 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 15 | 15 | 68 | 299 | 62 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 4.6 | 20.7% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 2.7% | 4.87 | 3.99 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 2 | 54 | 253 | 74 | 29 | 10 | 7% | 1.9 | 23.3% | 12.8% | 10.4% | 4.3% | 4.80 | 5.14 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 2 | 54 | 253 | 74 | 29 | 10 | 7% | 1.9 | 29.2% | 11.5% | 17.8% | 4.0% | 4.80 | 4.37 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 29 | 1 | 53 | 222 | 52 | 28 | 3 | 3% | 1.8 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 5.1% | 1.2% | 2.73 | 3.89 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 29 | 1 | 53 | 222 | 52 | 28 | 3 | 3% | 1.8 | 23.4% | 12.6% | 10.8% | 1.4% | 2.73 | 3.46 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 35 | 0 | 37 | 157 | 35 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 10.6% | 11.8% | 2.8% | 4.50 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 34 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 3.0% | 4.53 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 13 | 0 | 14 | 59 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 3.0% | 4.53 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 13 | 0 | 14 | 57 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 3.0% | 4.53 | 4.18 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 192 | 88 | 29 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 3.0% | 4.53 | 4.18 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 73 | 18 | 175 | 774 | 149 | 94 | 27 | 25% | 2.4 | 19.2% | 12.2% | 7.0% | 3.4% | 4.21 | 4.90 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 83 | 21 | 200 | 883 | 170 | 108 | 30 | 25% | 2.4 | 19.2% | 12.2% | 7.0% | 3.4% | 4.21 | 4.90 | +1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Russell Smith (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.50 | 22.4% | 10.6% | 2.8% | — | 4.56 | 22.3% | 11.7% | 36 | +0.06 | — | — | — |
| Hector Hernandez L 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.57 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 121 | 80 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 78 |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.83 | 16.6% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .308 | 3.98 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 59 | -0.85 | 3.98 | 122 | 77 |
| Juan Grullon L 2025 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.86 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 134 | 76 |
| Greg Nappo L 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.29 | 17.2% | 10.3% | 4.3% | .285 | 6.48 | 12.3% | -0.3% | 11 | +1.19 | 3.40 | 144 | 74 |
| Brendan Nail L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.43 | 19.5% | 11.4% | 2.8% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 165 | 74 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.01 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 221 | 73 |
| James Reeves L 2025 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.79 | 22.4% | 10.3% | 2.3% | .226 | 5.24 | 27.0% | 10.8% | 51 | +1.45 | 2.02 | 280 | 73 |
| Bailey Horn L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.24 | 23.8% | 11.7% | 3.0% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 265 | 72 |
| Will Gilbert L 2024 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.26 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 2.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 141 | 72 |
| Brad Kuntz L 2025 · 4.02 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.02 | 20.9% | 11.7% | 2.2% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.35 | 197 | 72 |
| A.J. Block L 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.64 | 22.7% | 12.4% | 1.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 203 | 72 |
| Edgar Olmos L 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.56 | 18.9% | 9.7% | 1.5% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 203 | 72 |
| Aaron Brown L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.88 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 1.8% | .317 | 4.79 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 129 | +0.91 | 3.88 | 269 | 71 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.43 | 19.8% | 12.8% | 0.7% | .312 | 4.62 | 17.8% | 3.7% | 76 | +1.19 | 3.43 | 134 | 71 |
| Will Lamb L 2025 · 5.47 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.47 | 20.0% | 14.0% | 4.2% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 178 | 71 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.06 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.73 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.33 | 3.73 | 108 | 70 |
| Carson Teel L 2025 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.22 | 17.7% | 7.1% | 3.1% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 248 | 70 |
| Josh D. Smith L 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.03 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 1.9% | .306 | 3.34 | 23.1% | 12.3% | 164 | -0.69 | 3.09 | 335 | 69 |
| Ben Onyshko L 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.68 | 16.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 219 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 37 | 22.4% | 10.6% | 1.12 | 4.51 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |