Russell Smith
P
Biloxi Shuckers
+0.3
WAR
Age 27
LHP
6'7" / 255 lbs
AA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.51
FIP4.51
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.4%
BB%10.6%
K-BB%11.8%
IP53
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 15 | 15 | 68 | 299 | 62 | 27 | 8 | 16.0% | 10.4% | 3.9% | 4.87 | 5.20 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 29 | 2 | 54 | 253 | 74 | 29 | 10 | 23.3% | 12.8% | 4.5% | 4.80 | 5.22 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 29 | 1 | 53 | 222 | 52 | 28 | 3 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 1.3% | 2.73 | 3.98 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 53 | — | 53 | 224 | 50 | 24 | 6 | 22.4% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 4.51 | 4.51 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 52 | — | 52 | 221 | 49 | 23 | 6 | 22.4% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.50 | 4.52 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 51 | — | 51 | 216 | 48 | 23 | 6 | 22.4% | 10.5% | 3.0% | 4.52 | 4.55 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 50 | — | 50 | 209 | 47 | 22 | 6 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 3.0% | 4.56 | 4.60 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 48 | — | 48 | 202 | 44 | 21 | 6 | 22.0% | 10.6% | 3.1% | 4.62 | 4.66 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 46 | — | 46 | 194 | 42 | 21 | 6 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 3.2% | 4.70 | 4.75 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | MIL | 44 | — | 44 | 185 | 40 | 20 | 6 | 21.4% | 10.9% | 3.3% | 4.79 | 4.85 | +0.0 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | MIL | 42 | — | 42 | 176 | 37 | 20 | 6 | 21.1% | 11.2% | 3.4% | 4.89 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | MIL | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 34 | 19 | 6 | 20.7% | 11.4% | 3.5% | 5.00 | 5.08 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | MIL | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 31 | 18 | 6 | 20.2% | 11.6% | 3.6% | 5.13 | 5.22 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 73 | 18 | 175 | 774 | 149 | 94 | 26 | 19.2% | 12.2% | 3.3% | 4.21 | 4.85 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 83 | 21 | 200 | 883 | 170 | 107 | 30 | 19.2% | 12.2% | 3.3% | 4.21 | 4.85 | +1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Russell Smith (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.51 | 22.4% | 10.6% | 2.9% | — | 4.56 | 22.3% | 11.8% | 153 | +0.05 | — | — | — |
| Fabian Williamson L 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.42 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .259 | 5.26 | 16.5% | -3.3% | 54 | +1.84 | 3.42 | 154 | 87 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.61 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.36 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.25 | 3.36 | 153 | 85 |
| Juan Grullon L 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.67 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 134 | 85 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2027 · 3.69 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.69 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .267 | 3.20 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.49 | 2.44 | 124 | 85 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2028 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 85 |
| Aaron Brown L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.02 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .317 | 4.77 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 129 | +0.75 | 4.02 | 269 | 84 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.35 | 21.9% | 11.1% | 1.3% | .368 | 3.62 | 21.7% | 11.5% | 100 | +0.27 | 3.02 | 153 | 84 |
| Jake Diekman L 2027 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.40 | 26.5% | 11.9% | 1.9% | .310 | 3.25 | 27.0% | 15.3% | 106 | -0.15 | 2.32 | 455 | 84 |
| Greg Nappo L 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.12 | 17.2% | 10.3% | 4.0% | .285 | 6.29 | 12.3% | -0.3% | 11 | +1.17 | 3.36 | 144 | 82 |
| Will Gilbert L 2024 · 4.40 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.40 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 141 | 81 |
| Peyton Alford L 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.82 | 22.9% | 12.1% | 3.9% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 229 | 81 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.18 | 17.9% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 304 | 81 |
| James Reeves L 2025 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.3% | 2.2% | .226 | 5.06 | 27.0% | 10.8% | 51 | +1.32 | 2.02 | 280 | 80 |
| Bailey Horn L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.96 | 23.8% | 11.7% | 2.5% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.96 | 265 | 80 |
| A.J. Block L 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.65 | 22.7% | 12.4% | 1.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 203 | 80 |
| Carson Skipper L 2024 · 3.79 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.79 | 19.9% | 9.1% | 2.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 176 | 80 |
| Brad Kuntz L 2025 · 4.09 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.09 | 20.9% | 11.7% | 2.3% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.35 | 197 | 80 |
| Patrick Schuster L 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.42 | 19.8% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .381 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 160 | 79 |
| Colton Turner L 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.31 | 21.1% | 8.4% | 1.7% | .235 | 4.33 | 22.4% | 13.2% | 94 | +1.02 | 2.79 | 325 | 79 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.48 | 19.8% | 12.8% | 0.8% | .312 | 4.58 | 17.8% | 3.7% | 76 | +1.10 | 3.48 | 134 | 79 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.