Russell Smith — OGILVIE

Russell Smith P Biloxi Shuckers

Age 27 LHP 6'7" / 255 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110118vR 126

ERA4.88

FIP4.88

K%20.9%

BB%12.6%

K-BB%8.4%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 3 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	23	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	15	15	68	299	62	27	8	100%	4.6	16.0%	10.4%	5.6%	3.8%	4.87	5.14	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	15	15	68	299	62	27	8	100%	4.6	20.7%	9.0%	11.7%	2.7%	4.87	3.99	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	2	54	253	74	29	10	7%	1.9	23.3%	12.8%	10.4%	4.6%	4.80	5.26	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	2	54	253	74	29	10	7%	1.9	23.3%	12.8%	10.4%	4.6%	4.80	5.26	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	2	54	253	74	29	10	7%	1.9	29.2%	11.5%	17.8%	4.0%	4.80	4.37	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	29	1	53	222	52	28	3	3%	1.8	19.0%	13.9%	5.1%	1.4%	2.73	4.00	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	29	1	53	222	52	28	3	3%	1.8	19.0%	13.9%	5.1%	1.4%	2.73	4.00	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Biloxi Shuckers	29	1	53	222	52	28	3	3%	1.8	23.4%	12.6%	10.8%	1.4%	2.73	3.46	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	MIL	3	0	3	13	3	2	0	0%	1.0	20.9%	12.6%	8.4%	2.9%	4.88	4.88	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	MIL	34	0	36	152	32	19	5	0%	1.1	21.1%	12.4%	8.7%	3.0%	4.87	4.91	-0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	MIL	13	0	14	59	12	7	2	0%	1.1	21.1%	12.4%	8.7%	3.0%	4.87	4.91	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		13	0	14	57	12	7	2	0%	1.0	21.1%	12.4%	8.7%	3.0%	4.87	4.53	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	177	103	29	0%	1.1	21.1%	12.4%	8.7%	3.0%	4.87	4.53	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		73	18	175	774	149	94	26	25%	2.4	19.2%	12.2%	7.0%	3.3%	4.21	4.85	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		83	21	200	883	170	108	29	25%	2.4	19.2%	12.2%	7.0%	3.3%	4.21	4.85	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Russell Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.88	20.9%	12.6%	2.9%	—	4.91	21.1%	8.7%	36	+0.03	—	—	—
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	77
Greg Nappo L 2016 · 5.09 FIP	27	SU	5.09	17.2%	10.3%	3.9%	.285	6.26	12.3%	-0.3%	11	+1.17	3.37	144	77
Brendan Nail L 2023 · 4.39 FIP	27	SU	4.39	18.9%	10.5%	2.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	165	74
Garrett Irvin L 2023 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	23.2%	11.6%	3.3%	.283	4.32	17.7%	2.9%	39	-0.10	4.32	110	74
Aaron Brown L 2019 · 4.04 FIP	27	SU	4.04	22.9%	13.5%	2.1%	.317	4.77	19.4%	6.7%	129	+0.73	4.04	269	73
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	73
Braeden Fausnaught L 2023 · 4.77 FIP	24	SW	4.77	16.9%	16.4%	1.8%	.287	4.60	17.9%	9.7%	179	-0.17	4.43	242	73
Brad Kuntz L 2018 · 4.10 FIP	26	SU	4.10	20.9%	11.7%	2.4%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	2.35	197	73
Will Lamb L 2017 · 5.78 FIP	26	SU	5.78	20.0%	14.0%	4.7%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	178	73
David Rollins L 2017 · 5.58 FIP	27	SU	5.58	18.0%	12.1%	4.5%	.260	5.68	15.9%	12.5%	20	+0.10	3.59	132	73
Brian Holmes L 2017 · 5.91 FIP	26	SW	5.91	15.5%	11.7%	4.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	205	72
Graeme Stinson L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	19.5%	15.6%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	146	72
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	72
Ben Onyshko L 2023 · 4.39 FIP	26	SU	4.39	16.1%	10.2%	2.5%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	219	71
Jeremy Horst L 2015 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	18.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.291	3.71	15.1%	2.7%	48	-0.38	3.71	108	71
Josh D. Smith L 2017 · 4.05 FIP	27	SU	4.05	20.5%	12.6%	2.0%	.306	3.38	23.1%	12.3%	164	-0.67	3.17	335	71
Eric Jokisch L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	27	SW	4.64	12.4%	9.6%	2.5%	.330	3.93	15.2%	7.6%	283	-0.71	3.78	412	71
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	71
James Reeves L 2019 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	22.4%	10.3%	2.2%	.226	5.11	27.0%	10.8%	51	+1.37	2.02	280	71
Sean Keselica L 2019 · 4.47 FIP	26	SU	4.47	18.0%	14.5%	1.9%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	235	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	37	21.0%	12.5%	1.13	4.88
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10