Russell Smith

P Biloxi Shuckers

Age 28 LHP 6'7" / 255 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	23	A+MIL	15	15	68	4.87	3.99	20.7%	9.0%	—	K 16.0% · BB 10.4% · FIP 5.14
2023	24	MIX2 levels	29	2	54	4.80	4.37	29.2%	11.5%	—	K 23.3% · BB 12.8% · FIP 5.26
2024	25	AAMIL	29	1	53	2.73	3.46	23.4%	12.6%	—	K 19.0% · BB 13.9% · FIP 4.00
2025	26	No MLB games played
2026	27	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	28	MLBMIL	1	0	1	4.68	4.68	21.6%	11.2%	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBMIL	9	0	9	4.72	4.78	21.6%	11.3%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsMatt Whitehouse (age 28) · Ryan Verdugo (age 28) · John Rheinecker (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106114vR 122

ERA4.68

FIP4.68

K%21.6%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%10.4%

Proj IP36

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	23	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	15	15	68	299	62	27	8	100%	4.6	16.0%	10.4%	5.6%	3.8%	4.87	5.14	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	15	15	68	299	62	27	8	100%	4.6	20.7%	9.0%	11.7%	2.7%	4.87	3.99	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	2	54	253	74	29	10	7%	1.9	23.3%	12.8%	10.4%	4.6%	4.80	5.26	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	2	54	253	74	29	10	7%	1.9	29.2%	11.5%	17.8%	4.0%	4.80	4.37	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	29	1	53	222	52	28	3	3%	1.8	19.0%	13.9%	5.1%	1.4%	2.73	4.00	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	29	1	53	222	52	28	3	3%	1.8	19.0%	13.9%	5.1%	1.4%	2.73	4.00	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Biloxi Shuckers	29	1	53	222	52	28	3	3%	1.8	23.4%	12.6%	10.8%	1.4%	2.73	3.46	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	MIL	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	21.6%	11.2%	10.4%	2.9%	4.68	4.68	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	MIL	27	0	29	122	26	14	4	0%	1.1	21.6%	11.3%	10.3%	3.1%	4.72	4.78	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	MIL	9	0	9	38	8	4	1	0%	1.0	21.6%	11.3%	10.3%	3.1%	4.72	4.78	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	9	38	8	4	1	0%	1.0	21.6%	11.3%	10.3%	3.1%	4.72	4.40	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	178	89	22	0%	1.1	21.6%	11.3%	10.3%	3.1%	4.72	4.40	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		73	18	175	774	149	94	26	25%	2.4	19.2%	12.2%	7.0%	3.3%	4.21	4.85	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		83	21	200	883	170	108	29	25%	2.4	19.2%	12.2%	7.0%	3.3%	4.21	4.85	-0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AABiloxi Shuckers · 53 IPFIP 3.46 → 4.00 (+0.54)K% 23.4% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.42%	—	×0.810	18.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.61%	—	×1.100	13.87%
HR / BF /BF	1.35%	÷1.198	×1.200	1.35%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 140).

Result: FIP 3.46 → 4.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AABiloxi Shuckers · 37 IPFIP 4.71 → 5.65 (+0.94)K% 28.0% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.98%	—	×0.810	22.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.71%	—	×1.100	11.79%
HR / BF /BF	4.76%	÷1.055	×1.200	5.41%

Result: FIP 4.71 → 5.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 17 IPFIP 3.35 → 4.48 (+1.13)K% 31.8% → 24.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.76%	—	×0.770	24.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.94%	—	×1.150	14.88%
HR / BF /BF	2.35%	÷1.033	×1.250	2.85%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 3.35 → 4.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 68 IPFIP 3.96 → 5.14 (+1.18)K% 20.7% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.74%	—	×0.770	15.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.03%	—	×1.150	10.38%
HR / BF /BF	2.68%	÷0.885	×1.250	3.78%

Result: FIP 3.96 → 5.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Russell Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.68	21.6%	11.2%	2.9%	—	4.78	21.6%	10.3%	29	+0.10	—	—	—
Matt Whitehouse L 2019 · 4.07 FIP	28	SW	4.07	20.1%	10.9%	2.3%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	353	79
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	78
John Rheinecker L 2007 · 5.13 FIP	28	SW	5.13	16.7%	10.9%	3.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	121	76
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	76
Randy Keisler L 2005 · 5.07 FIP	29	SW	5.07	16.4%	9.9%	3.8%	.295	5.51	6.5%	0.0%	17	+0.44	5.07	135	75
Chad Bell L 2017 · 4.57 FIP	28	SW	4.57	19.4%	8.9%	3.6%	.341	4.38	18.8%	11.4%	57	-0.19	3.39	393	74
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	74
Brendan Nail L 2023 · 4.36 FIP	27	SU	4.36	19.3%	10.5%	2.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	165	72
Ashur Tolliver L 2016 · 4.19 FIP	28	SU	4.19	21.3%	9.8%	3.0%	.308	5.03	13.8%	-5.1%	35	+0.84	3.49	134	72
Mitchell Tyranski L 2024 · 4.90 FIP	26	SU	4.90	21.0%	12.3%	3.7%	.234	3.46	20.5%	4.0%	57	-1.44	3.46	145	72
Aaron Brown L 2019 · 4.04 FIP	27	SU	4.04	22.9%	13.5%	2.1%	.317	4.77	19.4%	6.7%	129	+0.73	4.04	269	71
Edgar Olmos L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	27	SW	3.64	18.9%	9.7%	1.7%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	203	71
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	70
John Bale L 2001 · 4.41 FIP	27	SU	4.41	18.6%	15.0%	1.8%	.219	4.12	19.0%	13.9%	46	-0.29	2.49	168	70
Tommy Vail L 2024 · 3.65 FIP	25	SW	3.65	27.5%	15.3%	1.7%	.237	5.19	19.5%	2.9%	99	+1.54	3.65	168	70
Jake McSteen L 2024 · 4.64 FIP	28	SU	4.64	19.7%	6.4%	4.4%	.348	2.22	18.9%	13.2%	18	-2.42	2.22	286	69
Dario Alvarez L 2017 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	24.7%	12.4%	2.0%	.336	3.47	20.7%	8.3%	27	-0.21	3.47	160	69
Kyle Hunter L 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SU	4.50	14.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	188	69
Jordan Harrison L 2019 · 3.80 FIP	28	SU	3.80	19.1%	9.7%	2.0%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	244	69
Will Lamb L 2017 · 5.78 FIP	26	SU	5.78	20.0%	14.0%	4.7%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	178	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	33	21.6%	11.2%	1.16	4.70
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*