Tommy Vail
P
Birmingham Barons
+0.0
WAR
Age 27
LHP
6'0" / 195 lbs
AA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.80
FIP4.80
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.9%
BB%13.1%
K-BB%8.8%
IP77
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL3030
CMD3535
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 26 | 10 | 69 | 274 | 100 | 36 | 3 | 27.5% | 15.3% | 1.8% | 1.69 | 3.69 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 31 | 9 | 85 | 375 | 91 | 58 | 8 | 19.7% | 16.4% | 2.4% | 4.15 | 4.86 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 14 | 14 | 77 | 326 | 70 | 50 | 9 | 21.3% | 15.3% | 2.8% | 5.13 | 5.13 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 14 | 14 | 76 | 321 | 69 | 47 | 9 | 21.5% | 14.7% | 2.8% | 5.06 | 5.07 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 14 | 14 | 74 | 314 | 68 | 45 | 9 | 21.5% | 14.4% | 2.9% | 5.04 | 5.06 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 13 | 13 | 72 | 305 | 65 | 43 | 9 | 21.4% | 14.2% | 2.9% | 5.05 | 5.08 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 13 | 13 | 70 | 294 | 62 | 42 | 9 | 21.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | 5.10 | 5.14 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 12 | 12 | 67 | 282 | 59 | 41 | 9 | 20.9% | 14.4% | 3.1% | 5.18 | 5.23 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | CWS | 12 | 12 | 64 | 270 | 56 | 39 | 9 | 20.6% | 14.6% | 3.2% | 5.27 | 5.32 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | CWS | 11 | 11 | 61 | 256 | 52 | 38 | 8 | 20.3% | 14.8% | 3.3% | 5.37 | 5.43 | -0.3 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | CWS | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 48 | 36 | 8 | 19.9% | 15.0% | 3.4% | 5.48 | 5.56 | -0.4 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | CWS | 54 | — | 54 | 226 | 44 | 34 | 8 | 19.5% | 15.2% | 3.5% | 5.61 | 5.69 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 57 | 19 | 154 | 649 | 149 | 103 | 14 | 23.0% | 15.9% | 2.2% | 3.04 | 4.36 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 74 | 25 | 200 | 843 | 194 | 134 | 18 | 23.0% | 15.9% | 2.2% | 3.04 | 4.36 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tommy Vail (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.13 | 21.3% | 15.3% | 2.8% | — | 5.07 | 21.5% | 7.0% | 223 | -0.06 | — | — | — |
| Andy Oliver L 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.15 | 23.4% | 16.9% | 1.6% | .283 | 4.60 | 19.2% | 8.6% | 108 | +0.45 | 3.97 | 165 | 87 |
| Aaron Brown L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.02 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .317 | 4.77 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 129 | +0.75 | 4.02 | 269 | 86 |
| Tony Cingrani L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.21 | 18.1% | 13.3% | 1.8% | .271 | 3.66 | 32.4% | 26.1% | 65 | -0.55 | 1.66 | 186 | 85 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2028 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 81 |
| Dale Stanavich L 2025 · 5.63 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.63 | 21.8% | 18.2% | 3.8% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 144 | 81 |
| Juan Grullon L 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.67 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 134 | 79 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.58 | 19.4% | 15.5% | 2.1% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 264 | 79 |
| Brian Marconi L 2024 · 5.03 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.03 | 20.3% | 18.2% | 2.5% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 101 | 79 |
| Sean Keselica L 2025 · 4.48 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.48 | 18.0% | 14.5% | 1.9% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.79 | 235 | 78 |
| Greg Nappo L 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.12 | 17.2% | 10.3% | 4.0% | .285 | 6.29 | 12.3% | -0.3% | 11 | +1.17 | 3.36 | 144 | 78 |
| Adam Tulloch L 2024 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.73 | 17.4% | 15.7% | 2.0% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 212 | 78 |
| Nick Lee L 2024 · 5.02 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.02 | 19.0% | 19.7% | 1.9% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 102 | 78 |
| Marlon Arias L 2029 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .330 | 3.73 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.57 | 3.73 | 154 | 78 |
| Will Lamb L 2025 · 5.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.75 | 20.0% | 14.0% | 4.7% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 178 | 78 |
| Russell Smith L 2024 · 3.98 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.98 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 1.3% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 175 | 77 |
| Josh D. Smith L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.06 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.0% | .306 | 3.40 | 23.1% | 12.3% | 164 | -0.66 | 3.20 | 335 | 77 |
| Brian Moran L 2025 · 4.53 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.53 | 17.7% | 14.1% | 2.1% | .318 | 2.78 | 25.0% | 17.4% | 80 | -1.75 | 1.81 | 421 | 77 |
| Kit Scheetz L 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.10 | 16.2% | 13.6% | 3.0% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.34 | 195 | 77 |
| Peyton Alford L 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.82 | 22.9% | 12.1% | 3.9% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 229 | 76 |
| Trey Jeans L 2025 · 5.11 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.11 | 22.3% | 16.5% | 3.3% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.74 | 111 | 76 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.