Tommy Vail
P
Winston-Salem Dash
Age 27
LHP
6'0" / 195 lbs
A+
2026 ROS PROJECTION13 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127136vR 145
ERA5.62
FIP5.62
K%20.2%
BB%17.6%
K-BB%2.6%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 83 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 10 | 69 | 274 | 100 | 36 | 3 | 38% | 2.7 | 27.5% | 15.3% | 12.2% | 2.2% | 1.69 | 3.91 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 10 | 69 | 274 | 100 | 36 | 3 | 38% | 2.7 | 36.5% | 13.1% | 23.4% | 1.1% | 1.69 | 2.34 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 9 | 85 | 375 | 91 | 58 | 8 | 29% | 2.7 | 19.7% | 16.4% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.15 | 5.18 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 9 | 85 | 375 | 91 | 58 | 8 | 29% | 2.7 | 24.3% | 15.5% | 8.8% | 2.1% | 4.15 | 4.23 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 10 | 1 | 13 | 65 | 17 | 13 | 3 | 10% | 1.3 | — | — | — | — | 9.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | CWS | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 60 | 52 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.2% | 17.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 5.62 | 5.62 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20.2% | 17.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 5.62 | 5.62 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 83 | 361 | 77 | 65 | 12 | — | — | 21.3% | 18.0% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 6.15 | 4.74 | +0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 20.2% | 17.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 5.62 | 5.24 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 59 | 48 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.4% | 16.9% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 5.54 | 5.57 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 56 | 45 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.4% | 16.6% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 5.54 | 5.61 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 22 | 18 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.4% | 16.9% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 5.54 | 5.57 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 31 | 25 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.4% | 16.6% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 5.54 | 5.61 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 58 | 0 | 61 | 257 | 52 | 43 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.4% | 16.7% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 5.54 | 5.21 | -0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 171 | 141 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.4% | 16.7% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 5.54 | 5.21 | +0.4 | ||
| Career | — | 67 | 20 | 167 | 714 | 166 | 116 | 20 | 30% | 2.5 | 23.3% | 16.3% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 3.50 | 4.76 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 80 | 24 | 200 | 855 | 199 | 139 | 24 | 30% | 2.5 | 23.3% | 16.3% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 3.50 | 4.76 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tommy Vail (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.62 | 20.2% | 17.6% | 2.9% | — | 5.59 | 20.4% | 3.7% | 133 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Will Lamb L 2025 · 5.47 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.47 | 20.0% | 14.0% | 4.2% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 178 | 73 |
| Anderson Polanco L 2025 · 5.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.41 | 18.9% | 16.3% | 3.4% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 316 | 73 |
| Graeme Stinson L 2024 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.75 | 19.5% | 15.6% | 2.4% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 146 | 72 |
| Randy Labaut L 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.97 | 16.3% | 15.0% | 2.5% | .276 | 5.60 | 22.7% | 9.5% | 37 | +0.63 | 1.91 | 302 | 71 |
| Matt Whitehouse L 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.70 | 17.0% | 12.8% | 2.6% | .308 | 4.02 | 20.1% | 9.2% | 81 | -0.68 | 3.38 | 353 | 70 |
| Sean Keselica L 2025 · 4.53 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.53 | 18.0% | 14.5% | 2.0% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.77 | 235 | 70 |
| Brian Marconi L 2024 · 4.96 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.96 | 20.3% | 18.2% | 2.3% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.61 | 101 | 69 |
| Trey Jeans L 2025 · 5.12 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.12 | 22.3% | 16.5% | 3.3% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.74 | 111 | 69 |
| Kit Scheetz L 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.20 | 16.2% | 13.6% | 3.2% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.34 | 195 | 69 |
| Austin Krob L 2024 · 4.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.89 | 16.4% | 16.3% | 2.0% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 280 | 69 |
| Chandler Jozwiak L 2024 · 5.23 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.23 | 16.9% | 15.3% | 2.9% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.88 | 161 | 68 |
| Cody Dickson L 2024 · 5.52 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.52 | 15.9% | 14.6% | 3.5% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.90 | 354 | 68 |
| Cody Beckman L 2025 · 5.42 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.42 | 19.3% | 14.9% | 3.8% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 189 | 68 |
| Brian Moran L 2025 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.66 | 17.7% | 14.1% | 2.3% | .318 | 2.63 | 25.0% | 17.4% | 80 | -2.03 | 1.67 | 421 | 68 |
| Julian Bosnic L 2024 · 5.01 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.01 | 20.0% | 19.6% | 2.0% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.28 | 136 | 68 |
| Greg Nappo L 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.29 | 17.2% | 10.3% | 4.3% | .285 | 6.48 | 12.3% | -0.3% | 11 | +1.19 | 3.40 | 144 | 68 |
| Alex Cornwell L 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.01 | 14.7% | 11.1% | 3.2% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 381 | 67 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2028 · 5.34 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.34 | 14.2% | 12.2% | 3.5% | .356 | 5.01 | 14.1% | 5.9% | 242 | -0.33 | 3.47 | 512 | 67 |
| Nick Lee L 2024 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.73 | 19.0% | 19.7% | 1.4% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 102 | 67 |
| Matthew Spann L 2024 · 5.13 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.13 | 15.1% | 16.9% | 2.1% | .375 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 173 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 68 | 20.3% | 17.0% | 1.19 | 5.57 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |