Tommy Vail — OGILVIE

Tommy Vail P Winston-Salem Dash

Age 27 LHP 6'0" / 195 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION30 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122130vR 138

ERA5.54

FIP5.54

K%20.2%

BB%17.8%

K-BB%2.4%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3030

CMD3535

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	10	69	274	100	36	3	38%	2.7	27.5%	15.3%	12.2%	1.7%	1.69	3.65	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	10	69	274	100	36	3	38%	2.7	27.5%	15.3%	12.2%	1.7%	1.69	3.65	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	10	69	274	100	36	3	38%	2.7	36.5%	13.1%	23.4%	1.1%	1.69	2.34	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	9	85	375	91	58	8	29%	2.7	19.7%	16.4%	3.3%	2.4%	4.15	4.85	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	9	85	375	91	58	8	29%	2.7	19.7%	16.4%	3.3%	2.4%	4.15	4.85	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	9	85	375	91	58	8	29%	2.7	24.3%	15.5%	8.8%	2.1%	4.15	4.23	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	17	3	30	155	38	23	5	18%	1.8	18.6%	17.7%	0.9%	5.5%	9.49	6.78	—
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	17	3	30	155	38	23	5	18%	1.8	18.6%	17.7%	0.9%	5.5%	9.49	6.78	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	ROK RAW	CWS	4	0	5	22	10	3	1	0%	1.3	45.5%	13.6%	31.8%	4.5%	3.38	3.48	—
2026	27	A+ RAW	CWS	9	3	17	91	22	14	4	33%	1.9	24.2%	15.4%	8.8%	4.4%	10.90	5.42	—
2026	27	AA RAW	CWS	3	0	6	29	4	3	0	0%	2.0	13.8%	10.3%	3.4%	0.0%	4.50	3.25	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	CWS	1	0	2	13	2	3	0	0%	1.7	15.4%	23.1%	-7.7%	0.0%	32.40	4.72	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	CWS	6	0	6	27	5	5	1	0%	1.1	20.2%	17.8%	2.4%	2.7%	5.54	5.54	-0.1
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	CWS	—	—	37	182	43	28	6	—	—	23.9%	15.3%	8.6%	3.2%	8.81	6.57	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	CWS	65	0	68	287	59	49	8	0%	1.0	20.4%	17.1%	3.3%	2.9%	5.47	5.50	-0.7
2028	29	MLB MLE	CWS	62	0	65	274	56	46	8	0%	1.0	20.4%	16.8%	3.6%	3.0%	5.48	5.54	-0.7
2027	28	MLB CTX	CWS	24	0	25	106	22	18	3	0%	1.0	20.4%	17.1%	3.3%	2.9%	5.47	5.50	-0.3
2028	29	MLB CTX	CWS	34	0	36	152	31	25	5	0%	1.1	20.4%	16.8%	3.6%	3.0%	5.48	5.54	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		58	0	61	256	52	43	8	0%	1.0	20.4%	16.9%	3.5%	3.0%	5.48	5.14	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	172	142	26	0%	1.0	20.4%	16.9%	3.5%	3.0%	5.48	5.14	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		74	22	184	804	178	131	22	30%	2.5	22.1%	16.3%	5.9%	2.8%	4.10	4.81	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		80	24	200	872	193	142	24	30%	2.5	22.1%	16.3%	5.9%	2.8%	4.10	4.81	-2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tommy Vail (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.54	20.2%	17.8%	2.7%	—	5.52	20.4%	3.5%	133	-0.02	—	—	—
Braeden Fausnaught L 2023 · 4.77 FIP	24	SW	4.77	16.9%	16.4%	1.8%	.287	4.60	17.9%	9.7%	179	-0.17	4.43	242	82
Anderson Polanco L 2019 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	18.9%	16.3%	2.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	316	73
Graeme Stinson L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	19.5%	15.6%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	146	72
Houston Harding L 2023 · 5.74 FIP	25	SU	5.74	17.9%	15.0%	4.1%	.307	4.83	14.4%	3.1%	142	-0.91	3.41	239	71
Will Lamb L 2017 · 5.78 FIP	26	SU	5.78	20.0%	14.0%	4.7%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	178	70
Matt Whitehouse L 2018 · 4.55 FIP	27	SW	4.55	17.0%	12.8%	2.3%	.308	4.07	20.1%	9.2%	81	-0.48	3.37	353	70
Sean Keselica L 2019 · 4.47 FIP	26	SU	4.47	18.0%	14.5%	1.9%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	235	69
Brian Marconi L 2022 · 5.02 FIP	25	SU	5.02	20.3%	18.2%	2.4%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	101	69
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	68
Nick Lee L 2016 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	19.0%	19.7%	1.8%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	102	68
Garrett Schoenle L 2023 · 5.38 FIP	25	SP-	5.38	20.5%	15.0%	3.9%	.307	3.59	20.9%	12.2%	172	-1.79	2.32	359	68
Trey Jeans L 2022 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	22.3%	16.5%	3.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.74	111	68
Kit Scheetz L 2021 · 5.08 FIP	27	SU	5.08	16.2%	13.6%	2.9%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.34	195	68
Dante Biasi L 2023 · 6.65 FIP	25	SU	6.65	20.1%	18.4%	5.3%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	4.91	224	68
Cody Dickson L 2017 · 5.48 FIP	25	SW	5.48	15.9%	14.6%	3.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.88	354	68
Matthew Spann L 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SW	5.15	15.1%	16.9%	2.2%	.375	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	173	67
Cody Beckman L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	26	SU	5.27	19.3%	14.9%	3.5%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	189	67
Luke Westphal L 2016 · 4.69 FIP	27	SU	4.69	21.2%	19.7%	1.6%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	294	67
Greg Nappo L 2016 · 5.09 FIP	27	SU	5.09	17.2%	10.3%	3.9%	.285	6.26	12.3%	-0.3%	11	+1.17	3.37	144	67
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	20.3%	17.2%	1.11	5.50
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99