Tate Kuehner

P Nashville Sounds

Age 26 LHP 6'0" / 196 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.7 · 2028

Overview

AAAPROSPECTPre-ArbFA 2033

OGV OFP35OGV rank#988ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	23	19	104	3.19	3.32	26.3%	12.3%	—	K 20.5% · BB 13.9% · FIP 4.08
2025	24	MIX2 levels	23	23	110	2.77	3.59	25.2%	12.3%	—	K 21.5% · BB 13.8% · FIP 3.83
2026	25	AAAMIL	15	12	63	4.86	3.73	21.5%	11.4%	—	K 18.4% · BB 10.3% · FIP 3.89
2027PROJ	26	MLBMIL	2	2	13	4.73	4.73	19.9%	12.7%	0.1
2028PROJ33% MLB	27	MLBMIL	6	6	34	4.78	4.79	20.1%	12.3%	0.3
2029PROJ50% MLB	28	MLBMIL	8	8	45	4.80	4.84	20.1%	12.1%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.0First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$1M2031Arb-2$1M2032Ext$7M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.7 / P90 2.5, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 91%

CompsMisael Siverio (age 26) · Darin Gorski (age 27) · Chipper Smith (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107115vR 123

ERA4.73

FIP4.73

K%19.9%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%7.2%

Proj IP130

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 130 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2030	Arb-1	$1M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.2M
2031	Arb-2	$1M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$1.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	2	1	3	9	2	1	0	50%	1.5	22.2%	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	0.00	2.63	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	ACL Brewers	2	1	3	9	2	1	0	50%	1.5	22.2%	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	0.00	2.77	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	19	104	438	115	54	7	83%	4.5	20.5%	13.9%	6.6%	1.7%	3.19	4.08	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	19	104	438	115	54	7	83%	4.5	20.5%	13.9%	6.6%	1.7%	3.19	4.08	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	19	104	438	115	54	7	83%	4.5	26.3%	12.3%	13.9%	1.6%	3.19	3.32	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	110	464	117	57	9	100%	4.8	21.5%	13.8%	7.7%	1.5%	2.77	3.83	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	110	464	117	57	9	100%	4.8	21.5%	13.8%	7.7%	1.5%	2.77	3.83	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	110	464	117	57	9	100%	4.8	25.2%	12.3%	12.9%	1.9%	2.77	3.59	—
2026	25	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	15	12	63	289	62	33	5	80%	4.2	18.4%	10.3%	8.2%	1.9%	4.86	3.89	—
2026	25	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	15	12	63	289	62	33	5	80%	4.2	18.4%	10.3%	8.2%	1.9%	4.86	3.89	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	Nashville Sounds	15	12	63	289	62	33	5	80%	4.2	21.5%	11.4%	10.0%	1.7%	4.86	3.73	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	MIL	2	2	13	55	11	7	1	100%	6.5	19.9%	12.7%	7.2%	2.4%	4.73	4.73	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	MIL	17	17	102	432	87	53	11	100%	6.0	20.1%	12.3%	7.8%	2.5%	4.71	4.72	+0.8
2029	28	MLB MLE	MIL	15	15	90	378	76	46	10	100%	6.0	20.1%	12.1%	8.0%	2.7%	4.73	4.77	+0.6
2030	29	MLB MLE	MIL	14	14	81	342	68	41	10	100%	5.8	20.0%	12.1%	7.9%	2.8%	4.81	4.87	+0.5
2031	30	MLB MLE	MIL	12	12	73	308	61	38	9	100%	6.1	19.7%	12.3%	7.4%	3.0%	4.94	5.04	+0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	MIL	6	6	34	144	29	18	4	100%	5.7	20.1%	12.3%	7.8%	2.6%	4.78	4.79	+0.3
2029	28	MLB CTX	MIL	8	8	45	190	38	23	5	100%	5.6	20.1%	12.1%	8.0%	2.8%	4.80	4.84	+0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	MIL	8	8	49	207	41	25	6	100%	6.1	20.0%	12.1%	7.9%	3.0%	4.89	4.95	+0.3
2031	30	MLB CTX	MIL	8	8	50	211	42	26	7	100%	6.2	19.7%	12.3%	7.4%	3.2%	5.02	5.12	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		29	29	177	747	149	91	22	100%	6.1	20.0%	12.2%	7.8%	2.9%	4.88	4.56	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	168	103	25	100%	6.0	20.0%	12.2%	7.8%	2.9%	4.88	4.56	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		63	55	281	1200	245	156	20	87%	4.5	20.4%	13.0%	7.4%	1.7%	3.37	3.93	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	39	200	855	175	111	14	87%	4.5	20.4%	13.0%	7.4%	1.7%	3.37	3.93	+1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAANashville Sounds · 63 IPFIP 3.68 → 3.89 (+0.20)K% 21.5% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.45%	—	×0.860	18.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.42%	—	×0.900	10.28%
HR / BF /BF	1.73%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.90%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.68 → 3.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AABiloxi Shuckers · 101 IPFIP 3.23 → 3.83 (+0.60)K% 26.5% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.54%	—	×0.810	21.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.56%	—	×1.100	13.82%
HR / BF /BF	1.42%	÷1.170	×1.200	1.46%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 134).

Result: FIP 3.23 → 3.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAANashville Sounds · 10 IPFIP 7.22 → 7.20 (−0.02)K% 11.9% → 10.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	11.90%	—	×0.860	10.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.52%	—	×0.900	8.57%
HR / BF /BF	7.14%	÷1.111	×1.100	7.07%

Result: FIP 7.22 → 7.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 69 IPFIP 2.52 → 3.41 (+0.89)K% 28.8% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.77%	—	×0.770	22.15%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.58%	—	×1.150	13.32%
HR / BF /BF	0.70%	÷0.979	×1.250	0.90%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 2.52 → 3.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AABiloxi Shuckers · 36 IPFIP 4.81 → 5.33 (+0.52)K% 21.6% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.57%	—	×0.810	17.47%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.73%	—	×1.100	15.10%
HR / BF /BF	3.27%	÷1.198	×1.200	3.27%

Result: FIP 4.81 → 5.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tate Kuehner (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.4%	—	4.78	20.1%	7.9%	273	+0.05	—	—	—
Misael Siverio L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	26	SP	3.89	16.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.343	4.32	17.3%	8.2%	63	+0.43	3.89	185	83
Darin Gorski L 2015 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP	4.93	15.2%	11.4%	3.0%	.323	4.50	15.0%	5.2%	69	-0.43	4.50	206	81
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	80
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	79
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	78
Blair Walters L 2016 · 4.66 FIP	26	SP	4.66	14.6%	14.2%	1.8%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.87	262	78
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	77
Scott DeCecco L 2015 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP-	4.55	14.5%	11.5%	2.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.55	125	77
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	77
Brandon Schaeffer L 2023 · 4.07 FIP	23	SP	4.07	16.4%	8.5%	2.3%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	134	77
Matt Lujan L 2015 · 4.06 FIP	26	SP	4.06	15.5%	10.0%	1.8%	.326	4.84	16.0%	7.6%	119	+0.78	4.06	227	76
Austin Krob L 2024 · 3.75 FIP	24	SP	3.75	18.2%	9.0%	1.9%	.333	4.61	16.0%	2.1%	47	+0.86	3.59	280	76
Miguel Pena L 2017 · 3.97 FIP	26	SP	3.97	16.8%	8.2%	2.3%	.288	5.08	16.0%	9.0%	68	+1.11	2.98	282	76
James Gillheeney L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP-	3.79	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	129	76
Kaz Ishii L 2002 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	20.7%	14.9%	2.9%	.275	4.94	16.1%	2.9%	410	+0.11	4.51	564	75
Chad Bell L 2015 · 3.97 FIP	26	SP	3.97	15.7%	7.4%	2.3%	.326	4.07	19.0%	10.2%	252	+0.10	3.39	393	75
Jared Koenig L 2021 · 5.11 FIP	27	SP	5.11	16.0%	9.4%	4.0%	.270	3.78	20.1%	12.4%	267	-1.33	2.79	475	75
Marco Tovar L 2015 · 3.78 FIP	26	SP	3.78	17.1%	7.8%	2.1%	.323	4.70	13.0%	6.1%	120	+0.92	3.78	327	74
Christian MacLeod L 2024 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP	4.77	21.5%	13.6%	3.2%	.269	4.50	18.0%	3.0%	128	-0.27	3.88	280	73
Tyson Guerrero L 2024 · 4.52 FIP	25	SP	4.52	18.8%	11.2%	2.9%	.268	5.58	23.9%	8.4%	19	+1.06	4.26	250	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	95	20.0%	12.3%	1.02	4.77
Charlie Puleo ('81-'89, 1 WAR*)	3.2	90	18.5%*	11.5%*	1.22*	4.73*
Victor Zambrano ('07)	3.5	101	16.6%	12.7%	0.99	4.64
Steven Brault ('22)	1.8	59	18.8%	11.3%	0.97	4.73
Sam Deduno ('10-'15, 1 WAR*)	1.6	79	16.5%*	11.9%*	0.92*	4.66*
Gerry Arrigo ('61-'70, 1 WAR*)	3.1	103	20.0%*	11.6%*	1.17*	4.98*
Tom Kelley ('64-'73, 1 WAR*)	2.0	102	17.3%*	11.8%*	1.17*	4.36*