Tate Kuehner — OGILVIE

Tate Kuehner P Nashville Sounds

Age 25 LHP 6'0" / 196 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.9 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION59 act + 11 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108116vR 125

ERA4.81

FIP4.81

K%21.5%

BB%14.4%

K-BB%7.0%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5050

CMD4040

K†5050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-1	$1M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$0.8M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	2	1	3	9	2	1	0	50%	1.5	22.2%	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	0.00	2.63	—
2023	22	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	2	1	3	9	2	1	0	50%	1.5	22.2%	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	0.00	2.63	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	ACL Brewers	2	1	3	9	2	1	0	50%	1.5	22.2%	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	0.00	2.77	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	19	104	438	115	54	7	83%	4.5	20.5%	13.9%	6.6%	1.7%	3.19	4.08	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	19	104	438	115	54	7	83%	4.5	20.5%	13.9%	6.6%	1.7%	3.19	4.08	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	19	104	438	115	54	7	83%	4.5	26.3%	12.3%	13.9%	1.6%	3.19	3.32	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	110	464	117	57	9	100%	4.8	21.5%	13.8%	7.7%	1.5%	2.77	3.83	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	110	464	117	57	9	100%	4.8	21.5%	13.8%	7.7%	1.5%	2.77	3.83	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	110	464	117	57	9	100%	4.8	25.2%	12.3%	12.9%	1.9%	2.77	3.59	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	14	11	59	268	61	30	5	79%	4.2	18.9%	10.1%	8.8%	2.1%	5.03	3.91	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	14	11	59	268	61	30	5	79%	4.2	18.9%	10.1%	8.8%	2.1%	5.03	3.91	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AAA RAW	MIL	14	11	59	268	61	30	5	79%	4.2	22.8%	11.2%	11.6%	1.9%	5.03	3.62	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	MIL	2	2	11	46	10	7	1	100%	5.5	21.5%	14.4%	7.0%	2.4%	4.81	4.81	+0.0
ROS	25	MLB CTX	MIL	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	21.5%	14.4%	7.0%	2.5%	4.88	4.88	+0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	MIL	—	—	70	314	71	37	6	—	—	22.6%	11.7%	10.9%	1.9%	5.00	4.05	+0.5
FULL	25	MLB A+C	MIL	—	—	1	5	1	1	0	—	—	21.5%	14.4%	7.0%	2.5%	4.88	4.49	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	MIL	22	22	130	550	120	75	14	100%	5.9	21.7%	13.7%	8.0%	2.5%	4.74	4.73	+0.3
2028	27	MLB MLE	MIL	21	21	128	542	118	72	14	100%	6.1	21.7%	13.3%	8.4%	2.5%	4.72	4.73	+0.3
2029	28	MLB MLE	MIL	21	21	124	526	114	69	14	100%	5.9	21.6%	13.2%	8.4%	2.7%	4.75	4.79	+0.2
2030	29	MLB MLE	MIL	20	20	119	502	107	67	14	100%	5.9	21.4%	13.3%	8.1%	2.8%	4.84	4.91	-0.0
2031	30	MLB MLE	MIL	19	19	112	472	99	64	14	100%	5.9	21.1%	13.6%	7.4%	3.0%	4.99	5.09	-0.2
2027	26	MLB CTX	MIL	10	10	63	266	58	36	7	100%	6.3	21.7%	13.7%	8.0%	2.6%	4.81	4.80	+0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	MIL	14	14	85	359	78	48	10	100%	6.1	21.7%	13.3%	8.4%	2.7%	4.79	4.80	+0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	MIL	16	16	96	405	88	54	11	100%	6.0	21.6%	13.2%	8.4%	2.8%	4.82	4.86	+0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	MIL	16	16	98	414	89	55	12	100%	6.1	21.4%	13.3%	8.1%	3.0%	4.92	4.99	-0.0
2031	30	MLB CTX	MIL	16	16	97	410	86	56	13	100%	6.1	21.1%	13.6%	7.4%	3.2%	5.07	5.17	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		73	73	440	1859	399	249	53	100%	6.0	21.5%	13.4%	8.1%	2.9%	4.89	4.56	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	181	113	24	100%	6.0	21.5%	13.4%	8.1%	2.9%	4.89	4.56	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		62	54	277	1179	242	153	20	87%	4.5	20.5%	13.0%	7.6%	1.7%	3.38	3.93	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	39	200	852	175	111	14	87%	4.5	20.5%	13.0%	7.6%	1.7%	3.38	3.93	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tate Kuehner (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.81	21.5%	14.4%	2.4%	—	4.75	21.7%	8.3%	383	-0.06	—	—	—
Damon Jones L 2019 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP	3.71	25.9%	13.8%	1.9%	.266	4.21	25.5%	7.4%	41	+0.50	3.71	269	79
Shane Drohan L 2023 · 5.18 FIP	24	SP	5.18	19.3%	12.1%	4.0%	.308	3.49	24.7%	15.9%	190	-1.69	2.88	532	79
Scott Moss L 2019 · 3.94 FIP	24	SP	3.94	23.7%	13.9%	2.0%	.291	4.14	26.3%	10.1%	20	+0.20	3.83	457	79
Jimmy Robbins L 2023 · 4.69 FIP	25	SP-	4.69	17.8%	15.2%	2.1%	.290	5.79	18.9%	3.1%	13	+1.10	3.85	176	79
Misael Siverio L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	26	SP	3.89	16.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.343	4.32	17.3%	8.2%	63	+0.43	3.89	185	78
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.89	17.8%	10.2%	362	-0.29	3.77	475	78
Doug Nikhazy L 2023 · 5.39 FIP	23	SP	5.39	21.9%	16.9%	3.6%	.304	4.73	19.6%	8.6%	256	-0.66	4.16	461	78
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	77
Brycen Mautz L 2023 · 3.62 FIP	22	SP	3.62	18.7%	11.6%	1.1%	.308	4.61	20.1%	9.7%	322	+0.99	3.62	426	77
Dalton Rogers L 2023 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP	4.31	25.3%	16.7%	2.2%	.327	4.58	19.6%	4.1%	268	+0.27	3.47	364	77
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	77
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	76
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	76
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	76
Tyler Schweitzer L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP	4.50	19.6%	11.3%	3.0%	.293	4.16	16.8%	8.8%	318	-0.34	3.98	425	76
Jonathan Dziedzic L 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SP	4.32	15.7%	11.0%	2.1%	.292	4.80	14.2%	5.3%	243	+0.48	3.88	522	76
Darin Gorski L 2015 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP	4.93	15.2%	11.4%	3.0%	.323	4.50	15.0%	5.2%	69	-0.43	4.50	206	76
Danny Duffy L 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	17.3%	9.0%	2.8%	.292	3.96	22.7%	15.3%	481	-0.33	3.29	915	75
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	75
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	124	21.5%	13.6%	1.02	4.80
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98