Brandon Schaeffer
P
ACL Mariners
Age 26
LHP
6'2" / 195 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 1.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 90 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100109vR 118
ERA4.37
FIP4.37
K%22.3%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%13.3%
ROS IP90
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 25 | 134 | 591 | 128 | 43 | 11 | 93% | 5.0 | 16.4% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 2.4% | 4.29 | 4.08 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 25 | 134 | 591 | 128 | 43 | 11 | 93% | 5.0 | 21.7% | 7.3% | 14.4% | 1.9% | 4.29 | 3.22 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | ROK | ACL Mariners | 5 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 80% | 1.1 | 13.8% | 17.2% | -3.4% | 0.0% | 10.12 | 4.12 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | ROK | ACL Mariners | 5 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 80% | 1.1 | 13.8% | 17.2% | -3.4% | 0.0% | 10.12 | 4.41 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | SEA | 15 | 15 | 90 | 380 | 85 | 34 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.3% | 9.0% | 13.3% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.37 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 15 | 15 | 89 | 375 | 83 | 34 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.3% | 9.0% | 13.3% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.40 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 14 | 14 | 86 | 363 | 80 | 33 | 11 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.1% | 9.0% | 13.1% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.47 | +0.6 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 5 | 5 | 32 | 135 | 30 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 6.4 | 22.3% | 9.0% | 13.3% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 48 | 19 | 7 | 100% | 6.4 | 22.1% | 9.0% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.43 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 14 | 14 | 83 | 350 | 78 | 31 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.2% | 9.0% | 13.2% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.02 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 188 | 75 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.2% | 9.0% | 13.2% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.02 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 32 | 29 | 140 | 620 | 101 | 55 | 14 | 91% | 4.4 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 2.2% | 4.51 | 4.08 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 42 | 200 | 888 | 144 | 79 | 20 | 91% | 4.4 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 2.2% | 4.51 | 4.08 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brandon Schaeffer (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.37 | 22.3% | 9.0% | 3.0% | — | 4.43 | 22.2% | 13.2% | 175 | +0.06 | — | — | — |
| Tyler Skaggs L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.34 | 20.8% | 7.7% | 3.7% | .310 | 3.59 | 23.9% | 16.0% | 205 | -0.75 | 3.21 | 372 | 80 |
| James Paxton L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.26 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .288 | 3.00 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.26 | 2.48 | 924 | 79 |
| Zach Thornton L 2024 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.22 | 20.9% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.95 | 221 | 79 |
| Sebastian Gongora L 2024 · 3.81 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.81 | 18.5% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 152 | 78 |
| Dylan Dodd L 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.88 | 17.9% | 7.0% | 4.4% | .338 | 4.05 | 26.4% | 21.5% | 100 | -0.83 | 3.41 | 452 | 78 |
| Miguel Pena L 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.14 | 16.8% | 8.2% | 2.6% | .288 | 5.94 | 16.0% | 9.0% | 68 | +1.80 | 2.86 | 282 | 78 |
| Connor Wietgrefe L 2024 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.26 | 18.7% | 8.5% | 3.0% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 200 | 78 |
| Matt Moore L 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.18 | 21.9% | 7.8% | 3.5% | .323 | 4.45 | 19.7% | 11.3% | 475 | +0.27 | 2.82 | 845 | 78 |
| Felix Doubront L 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.87 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.2% | .304 | 4.45 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 42 | +0.58 | 3.39 | 291 | 78 |
| Juan Pablo Oramas L 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.37 | 18.6% | 9.7% | 1.1% | .334 | 4.05 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 209 | +0.68 | 3.37 | 440 | 76 |
| Danny Duffy L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.27 | 17.3% | 9.0% | 2.7% | .292 | 3.94 | 22.7% | 15.3% | 481 | -0.33 | 3.29 | 915 | 75 |
| Marco Tovar L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.79 | 17.1% | 7.8% | 2.1% | .323 | 4.62 | 13.0% | 6.1% | 120 | +0.83 | 3.79 | 327 | 74 |
| Misael Siverio L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.00 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 1.7% | .343 | 4.52 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 63 | +0.52 | 4.00 | 185 | 74 |
| Aríel Miranda L 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.38 | 18.3% | 10.2% | 0.9% | .280 | 5.41 | 19.2% | 10.2% | 364 | +2.03 | 3.38 | 431 | 74 |
| Ryan Bollinger L 2027 · 3.53 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.53 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.53 | 112 | 74 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.39 | 18.5% | 6.0% | 2.0% | .282 | 4.13 | 16.2% | 7.0% | 87 | +0.74 | 3.39 | 300 | 73 |
| Chipper Smith L 2025 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.83 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 109 | 73 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2023 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.19 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 106 | 72 |
| Matt Lujan L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.25 | 15.5% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .326 | 5.04 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 119 | +0.79 | 4.25 | 227 | 72 |
| Taylor Varnell L 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.52 | 20.1% | 10.3% | 3.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.89 | 248 | 71 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 88 | 22.2% | 9.0% | 1.18 | 4.39 |
| Kyle Wright ('23) | 3 | 83 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 1.12 | 3.97 |
| Nate Karns ('17) | 3 | 96 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 1.22 | 4.24 |
| Tyler Skaggs ('19) | 4 | 85 | 22.9% | 8.2% | 1.09 | 4.24 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Brandon McCarthy ('18) | 4 | 59 | 21.3% | 7.9% | 1.19 | 4.65 |
| Ian Anderson ('22) | 3 | 91 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 0.96 | 3.97 |