Jared Koenig
P
Milwaukee Brewers
+0.4
WAR
INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)
Age 32
LHP
6'5" / 244 lbs
MLB
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 0.6 · 2027
ERA3.29
FIP3.70
xFIP3.47
SIERA3.62
K%24.3%
BB%7.8%
K-BB%16.6%
IP59
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2027
K†5555
FB Velo
p7896.5
Whiff%
p3322.9%
K%
p6725.4%
xwOBA vs
p900.263
FB+0.7 (70%)
SI (65%)
CU (2%)
CH-0.5 (9%)
CT-0.9 (20%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 27 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 24 | 21 | 121 | 505 | 100 | 43 | 14 | 16.0% | 9.4% | 4.1% | 3.26 | 5.17 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 30 | 23 | 146 | 627 | 126 | 45 | 17 | 18.1% | 7.4% | 2.8% | 4.98 | 4.05 | +2.1 |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 48 | 1 | 59 | 278 | 70 | 27 | 8 | 21.6% | 10.3% | 3.1% | 3.81 | 4.26 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 61 | 6 | 69 | 288 | 74 | 21 | 4 | 23.8% | 7.2% | 1.3% | 2.36 | 2.72 | +1.8 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 72 | 0 | 66 | 268 | 68 | 19 | 6 | 25.4% | 7.1% | 2.1% | 2.86 | 3.00 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 3 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | MIL | 27 | — | 27 | 115 | 27 | 9 | 3 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 2.4% | 3.23 | 3.82 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 32 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 30 | 128 | 31 | 9 | 3 | 24.2% | 7.0% | 2.2% | 2.98 | 3.52 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | MIL | 56 | — | 56 | 239 | 54 | 19 | 6 | 22.8% | 7.9% | 2.5% | 3.66 | 3.95 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | MIL | 54 | — | 54 | 227 | 50 | 18 | 6 | 22.1% | 8.1% | 2.6% | 3.92 | 4.09 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | MIL | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 46 | 18 | 6 | 21.3% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 4.11 | 4.24 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 36 | MLB | MIL | 47 | — | 47 | 200 | 41 | 17 | 6 | 20.6% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 4.28 | 4.40 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 37 | MLB | MIL | 44 | — | 44 | 185 | 37 | 16 | 6 | 19.8% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 4.46 | 4.58 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 38 | MLB | MIL | 40 | — | 40 | 171 | 32 | 16 | 5 | 18.9% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 4.64 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 238 | 51 | 464 | 1979 | 395 | 162 | 56 | 20.0% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 3.67 | 4.00 | +6.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 103 | 22 | 200 | 854 | 170 | 70 | 24 | 20.0% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 3.67 | 4.00 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jared Koenig (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.82 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 2.4% | — | 4.09 | 22.1% | 14.0% | 161 | +0.27 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Abad L 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.68 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 2.5% | .281 | 2.38 | 23.3% | 21.0% | 44 | -1.30 | 2.38 | 306 | 74 |
| Oliver Pérez L 2027 · 2.76 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.76 | 27.9% | 7.1% | 2.0% | .304 | 2.62 | 28.3% | 21.7% | 119 | -0.14 | 1.56 | 219 | 73 |
| Ryan Buchter L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.67 | 25.3% | 10.6% | 4.3% | .286 | 5.02 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 32 | +0.35 | 2.37 | 296 | 72 |
| Brandon Mann L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 3.99 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.74 | 3.59 | 190 | 71 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2025 · 3.70 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.70 | 25.3% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 223 | 71 |
| Heriberto Ruelas L 2027 · 2.97 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.97 | 19.1% | 7.3% | 1.0% | .352 | 3.57 | 16.2% | 8.5% | 89 | +0.60 | 2.97 | 117 | 71 |
| Zach Phillips L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.67 | 19.1% | 8.5% | 2.0% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.34 | 202 | 70 |
| Phil Coke L 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.85 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.1% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.81 | 3.04 | 101 | 69 |
| Sean Doolittle L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.61 | 25.4% | 5.0% | 3.7% | .306 | 4.02 | 23.8% | 14.8% | 50 | +0.41 | 1.42 | 259 | 69 |
| Justin Wilson L 2026 · 2.65 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.65 | 26.7% | 9.3% | 1.1% | .315 | 4.87 | 19.5% | 8.8% | 34 | +2.22 | 2.43 | 420 | 69 |
| Josh Edgin L 2025 · 3.62 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.62 | 29.2% | 9.2% | 3.3% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 113 | 69 |
| David Huff L 2025 · 4.07 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.07 | 19.5% | 4.9% | 3.6% | .384 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 158 | 69 |
| Jeremy Bleich L 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.42 | 20.1% | 7.0% | 3.9% | .360 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 241 | 68 |
| Caleb Thielbar L 2026 · 3.12 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.12 | 25.9% | 5.3% | 2.8% | .337 | 2.72 | 30.2% | 22.6% | 143 | -0.40 | 2.22 | 459 | 68 |
| Manny Parra L 2026 · 2.90 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.90 | 17.7% | 3.8% | 1.5% | .300 | 3.33 | 18.4% | 8.1% | 55 | +0.43 | 2.43 | 114 | 68 |
| Neal Cotts L 2029 · 4.64 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.64 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 4.4% | .257 | 3.78 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 93 | -0.86 | 3.21 | 156 | 67 |
| Grant Dayton L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.67 | 27.4% | 8.5% | 3.3% | .254 | 3.84 | 23.2% | 13.8% | 62 | +0.17 | 1.69 | 277 | 67 |
| Tony Sipp L 2026 · 2.68 FIP | 32 | SW | 2.68 | 28.7% | 6.5% | 2.2% | .267 | 4.36 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 120 | +1.68 | 2.19 | 195 | 67 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.28 | 25.9% | 12.7% | 3.2% | .276 | 5.11 | 17.3% | 2.6% | 35 | +0.83 | 3.70 | 181 | 67 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2025 · 4.27 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.27 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 124 | 67 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2
MLB Debut 2022
Service 2.250 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2029
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.8M |
| 2027 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.6 | $2M | +$0.5M |
| 2028 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2029 | Arb-4 | $3M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $7M | $8M | +$1M | ||