Pete Hansen

P Memphis Redbirds

Age 27 LHP 6'2" / 205 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.0 · 2027

Overview

AAAPROSPECTPre-ArbFA 2033

OGV OFP35OGV rank#441ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	A+STL	24	24	128	3.86	2.98	24.1%	7.4%	—	K 18.6% · BB 8.5% · FIP 3.85
2025	25	AASTL	26	26	137	3.93	3.25	21.1%	6.3%	—	K 17.1% · BB 7.0% · FIP 3.77
2026	26	MIX2 levels	28	22	108	4.33	3.59	22.0%	8.2%	—	K 18.6% · BB 7.2% · FIP 3.95
2027PROJ	27	MLBSTL	3	3	16	4.35	4.35	17.4%	6.5%	0.2
2028PROJ43% MLB	28	MLBSTL	9	9	56	4.28	4.31	17.7%	6.8%	0.6
2029PROJ59% MLB	29	MLBSTL	11	11	67	4.36	4.42	17.8%	7.1%	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 1.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.0First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$2M2031Arb-2$2M2032Arb-3$1M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.9 / P90 2.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsJames Gillheeney (age 27) · Kyle Hald (age 26) · Ryan Bollinger (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100108vR 116

ERA4.35

FIP4.35

K%17.4%

BB%6.5%

K-BB%10.9%

Proj IP157

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 157 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$14M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.7M
2031	Arb-2	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.1M
2032	Arb-3	$1M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$9M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	114	468	126	39	10	96%	4.7	20.1%	9.9%	10.2%	2.8%	3.09	4.18	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	23	114	468	126	39	10	96%	4.7	26.9%	8.3%	18.6%	2.1%	3.09	3.06	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	24	24	128	555	134	41	10	100%	5.3	18.6%	8.5%	10.1%	2.3%	3.86	3.85	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	24	24	128	555	134	41	10	100%	5.3	18.6%	8.5%	10.1%	2.3%	3.86	3.85	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Peoria Chiefs	24	24	128	555	134	41	10	100%	5.3	24.1%	7.4%	16.8%	1.8%	3.86	2.98	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	26	26	137	583	123	37	12	100%	5.3	17.1%	7.0%	10.1%	2.2%	3.93	3.77	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	26	26	137	583	123	37	12	100%	5.3	17.1%	7.0%	10.1%	2.2%	3.93	3.77	—
2025	25	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	26	26	137	583	123	37	12	100%	5.3	21.1%	6.3%	14.8%	2.1%	3.93	3.25	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	22	108	464	102	38	11	79%	3.9	18.6%	7.2%	11.4%	2.8%	4.33	3.95	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	22	108	464	102	38	11	79%	3.9	18.6%	7.2%	11.4%	2.8%	4.33	3.95	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	22	108	464	102	38	11	79%	3.9	22.0%	8.2%	13.8%	2.4%	4.33	3.59	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	STL	3	3	16	68	12	4	2	100%	5.3	17.4%	6.5%	10.9%	2.8%	4.35	4.35	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	STL	22	22	131	553	98	37	16	100%	6.0	17.7%	6.8%	10.9%	2.9%	4.39	4.42	+1.5
2029	29	MLB MLE	STL	19	19	114	483	86	34	15	100%	6.0	17.8%	7.1%	10.7%	3.0%	4.48	4.54	+1.1
2030	30	MLB MLE	STL	17	17	102	430	76	32	14	100%	6.0	17.7%	7.4%	10.3%	3.2%	4.61	4.70	+0.8
2031	31	MLB MLE	STL	15	15	91	383	66	30	13	100%	6.0	17.4%	7.8%	9.6%	3.5%	4.78	4.89	+0.5
2032	32	MLB MLE	STL	13	13	79	335	57	27	12	100%	6.1	16.9%	8.2%	8.8%	3.7%	4.98	5.12	+0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	STL	9	9	56	236	42	16	6	100%	6.2	17.7%	6.8%	10.9%	2.7%	4.28	4.31	+0.6
2029	29	MLB CTX	STL	11	11	67	283	50	20	8	100%	6.1	17.8%	7.1%	10.7%	2.8%	4.36	4.42	+0.7
2030	30	MLB CTX	STL	12	12	72	304	54	22	9	100%	6.0	17.7%	7.4%	10.3%	3.0%	4.49	4.58	+0.6
2031	31	MLB CTX	STL	12	12	71	300	52	23	10	100%	5.9	17.4%	7.8%	9.6%	3.2%	4.65	4.76	+0.4
2032	32	MLB CTX	STL	11	11	66	279	47	23	10	100%	6.0	16.9%	8.2%	8.8%	3.4%	4.84	4.98	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		55	55	332	1401	245	104	43	100%	6.0	17.5%	7.4%	10.0%	3.0%	4.53	4.24	+4.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	148	63	26	100%	6.0	17.5%	7.4%	10.0%	3.0%	4.53	4.24	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		102	95	487	2070	383	167	51	93%	4.8	18.5%	8.1%	10.4%	2.5%	3.80	3.92	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	39	200	850	157	69	21	93%	4.8	18.5%	8.1%	10.4%	2.5%	3.80	3.92	+1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 101 IPFIP 3.66 → 3.95 (+0.29)K% 21.6% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.59%	—	×0.860	18.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.95%	—	×0.900	7.16%
HR / BF /BF	2.50%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.75%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.66 → 3.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 APalm Beach Cardinals · 7 IPFIP 2.22 → 3.15 (+0.93)K% 29.2% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.17%	—	×0.740	21.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×1.180	14.75%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.22 → 3.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AASpringfield Cardinals · 137 IPFIP 3.25 → 3.77 (+0.52)K% 21.1% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.10%	—	×0.810	17.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.35%	—	×1.100	6.98%
HR / BF /BF	2.06%	÷1.105	×1.200	2.24%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 121).

Result: FIP 3.25 → 3.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Peoria Chiefs · 128 IPFIP 2.99 → 3.85 (+0.87)K% 24.1% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.14%	—	×0.770	18.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.39%	—	×1.150	8.50%
HR / BF /BF	1.80%	÷0.993	×1.250	2.27%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 2.99 → 3.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 APalm Beach Cardinals · 113 IPFIP 3.05 → 4.18 (+1.13)K% 27.1% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.10%	—	×0.740	20.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.39%	—	×1.180	9.90%
HR / BF /BF	2.15%	÷1.010	×1.300	2.77%

Result: FIP 3.05 → 4.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Pete Hansen (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.8%	—	4.54	17.7%	10.7%	347	+0.19	—	—	—
James Gillheeney L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP-	3.79	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	129	78
Kyle Hald L 2015 · 4.33 FIP	26	SP	4.33	12.1%	7.4%	2.4%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.33	124	78
Ryan Bollinger L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	27	SP	3.56	17.1%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	112	78
Miguel Pena L 2017 · 3.97 FIP	26	SP	3.97	16.8%	8.2%	2.3%	.288	5.08	16.0%	9.0%	68	+1.11	2.98	282	77
Darin Gorski L 2015 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP	4.93	15.2%	11.4%	3.0%	.323	4.50	15.0%	5.2%	69	-0.43	4.50	206	75
Matt Crouse L 2017 · 4.64 FIP	27	SP	4.64	12.0%	7.4%	2.9%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	342	75
John Michael Bertrand L 2024 · 4.10 FIP	26	SP	4.10	15.8%	7.2%	2.6%	.317	4.49	13.1%	2.8%	199	+0.39	3.71	463	75
Misael Siverio L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	26	SP	3.89	16.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.343	4.32	17.3%	8.2%	63	+0.43	3.89	185	75
Jared Koenig L 2021 · 5.11 FIP	27	SP	5.11	16.0%	9.4%	4.0%	.270	3.78	20.1%	12.4%	267	-1.33	2.79	475	75
Kramer Sneed L 2016 · 4.21 FIP	27	SP	4.21	13.2%	8.2%	2.2%	.265	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	116	75
Dylan Dodd L 2024 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	17.5%	6.0%	4.2%	.338	3.97	26.5%	21.7%	123	-0.74	3.31	475	74
Colton Gordon L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	25	SP	3.89	20.4%	6.7%	3.0%	.286	4.69	18.3%	13.4%	281	+0.80	2.73	586	74
Yusei Kikuchi L 2019 · 5.43 FIP	28	SP	5.43	16.1%	6.9%	5.1%	.306	4.53	25.4%	14.8%	305	-0.90	3.23	1,056	73
Jimmy Reed L 2015 · 3.66 FIP	24	SP	3.66	12.9%	4.3%	2.0%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	137	73
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	73
Aríel Miranda L 2016 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP	4.87	18.5%	7.8%	4.3%	.265	5.31	19.7%	9.8%	205	+0.44	3.46	431	72
Kelvin Marte L 2015 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	11.7%	7.8%	1.3%	.273	4.14	16.3%	7.0%	160	+0.32	3.44	360	72
Zack Dodson L 2015 · 4.09 FIP	25	SP	4.09	10.8%	5.6%	2.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.09	162	72
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	72
Tanner Tully L 2022 · 3.74 FIP	27	SP	3.74	16.2%	5.1%	2.5%	.329	5.01	13.4%	7.7%	191	+1.27	3.74	834	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.4	112	17.5%	7.1%	1.20	4.55
Bob Sadowski ('63-'66, 2 WAR*)	2.2	110	17.7%*	8.0%*	1.20*	4.73*
Rod Nichols ('88-'95, 1 WAR*)	2.1	103	16.1%*	6.6%*	1.21*	4.64*
Alfredo Simon ('16)	3.9	111	15.7%	8.0%	1.22	4.56
Wally Whitehurst ('89-'96, 4 WAR*)	2.4	98	19.0%*	6.3%*	1.11*	4.50*
Chris Narveson ('16)	2.2	109	19.4%	8.6%	1.20	4.71
Chad Bettis ('19)	3.0	86	16.2%	7.9%	1.18	5.12