John Michael Bertrand
P
Sacramento River Cats
+0.5
WAR
Age 28
LHP
6'3" / 238 lbs
AAA
peak 0.9 · 2026
ERA4.62
FIP4.62
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%16.7%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%7.6%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.9peak
2026
STUF3535
CTRL5050
CMD3535
K†3030
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 24 | ROK | ACL Giants Black | 5 | 1 | 8 | 28 | 8 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 27 | 19 | 118 | 487 | 92 | 35 | 6 | 14.8% | 8.1% | 1.5% | 3.65 | 3.72 | +2.1 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 30 | 29 | 156 | 653 | 125 | 45 | 14 | 15.8% | 7.2% | 2.6% | 4.15 | 4.12 | +2.1 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 27 | 26 | 144 | 594 | 101 | 52 | 11 | 13.4% | 10.2% | 2.0% | 2.82 | 4.35 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 3 | 2 | 12 | 57 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 10.8% | 12.9% | 3.9% | 5.40 | 5.94 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | SF | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 76 | 52 | 13 | 14.9% | 10.3% | 2.5% | 4.92 | 4.92 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | SF | — | — | 132 | 564 | 83 | 59 | 15 | 14.7% | 10.5% | 2.6% | 4.96 | 5.01 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | SF | 21 | 21 | 117 | 495 | 77 | 50 | 13 | 15.5% | 10.1% | 2.6% | 4.88 | 4.90 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | SF | 21 | 21 | 114 | 480 | 76 | 48 | 13 | 15.8% | 10.1% | 2.7% | 4.88 | 4.91 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | SF | 20 | 20 | 110 | 464 | 74 | 47 | 13 | 15.9% | 10.1% | 2.8% | 4.91 | 4.95 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | SF | 19 | 19 | 105 | 445 | 70 | 45 | 13 | 15.7% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.97 | 5.02 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | SF | 18 | 18 | 101 | 425 | 66 | 44 | 13 | 15.4% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 5.06 | 5.12 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | SF | 17 | 17 | 96 | 404 | 61 | 43 | 12 | 15.1% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 5.16 | 5.23 | +0.0 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | SF | 16 | 16 | 90 | 381 | 56 | 41 | 12 | 14.7% | 10.8% | 3.2% | 5.28 | 5.35 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | SF | 15 | 15 | 84 | 356 | 51 | 39 | 12 | 14.3% | 11.0% | 3.3% | 5.40 | 5.49 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 92 | 77 | 438 | 1819 | 269 | 154 | 39 | 14.8% | 8.5% | 2.1% | 3.54 | 4.09 | +6.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 35 | 200 | 831 | 123 | 70 | 18 | 14.8% | 8.5% | 2.1% | 3.54 | 4.09 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| John Michael Bertrand (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.92 | 14.9% | 10.3% | 2.5% | — | 4.92 | 15.7% | 5.6% | 341 | -0.00 | — | — | — |
| Kramer Sneed L 2025 · 4.25 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.25 | 13.2% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 116 | 89 |
| James Gillheeney L 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.81 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 129 | 88 |
| Santiago Gutierrez L 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.28 | 11.0% | 7.9% | 2.0% | .314 | 3.92 | 14.9% | 6.1% | 169 | -0.36 | 3.91 | 341 | 86 |
| Alejandro Astorga L 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.36 | 11.5% | 10.2% | 1.7% | .283 | 3.88 | 14.7% | 6.1% | 220 | -0.48 | 3.73 | 311 | 85 |
| John Gast L 2024 · 3.93 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.1% | 7.9% | 1.9% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 122 | 85 |
| Kyle Hald L 2024 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.31 | 12.1% | 7.4% | 2.4% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 124 | 85 |
| Aaron Laffey L 2028 · 4.11 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.11 | 13.5% | 9.7% | 1.7% | .318 | 4.39 | 12.5% | 5.2% | 192 | +0.28 | 3.52 | 282 | 85 |
| Orlando Lara L 2028 · 4.15 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.15 | 15.2% | 10.3% | 1.9% | .348 | 4.07 | 14.2% | 7.2% | 230 | -0.08 | 3.83 | 426 | 85 |
| John Anderson L 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.19 | 14.3% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 235 | 85 |
| Everett Teaford L 2029 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.43 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.43 | 103 | 84 |
| Chipper Smith L 2023 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 109 | 83 |
| Eric Wooten L 2023 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.99 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 116 | 82 |
| Matt Tracy L 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.82 | 16.1% | 9.4% | 3.5% | .325 | 3.24 | 13.9% | 3.5% | 49 | -1.58 | 3.24 | 298 | 82 |
| Felix Doubront L 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.97 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .304 | 4.04 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 42 | +0.07 | 3.44 | 291 | 82 |
| Carlos Teller L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.74 | 13.8% | 10.9% | 0.8% | .329 | 4.75 | 13.3% | 3.1% | 187 | +1.01 | 3.74 | 333 | 82 |
| Edgar Osuna L 2027 · 5.04 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.04 | 10.6% | 8.2% | 3.3% | .345 | 5.08 | 10.0% | 2.8% | 83 | +0.04 | 5.04 | 175 | 81 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.38 | 12.8% | 7.0% | 2.7% | .367 | 4.09 | 14.6% | 9.1% | 128 | -0.29 | 3.98 | 280 | 81 |
| Michael Roth L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.83 | 12.1% | 8.5% | 3.0% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 483 | 81 |
| Blair Walters L 2024 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.67 | 14.6% | 14.2% | 1.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 262 | 79 |
| Amilcar Gaxiola L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.56 | 11.8% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.56 | 321 | 79 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.