John Michael Bertrand

John Michael Bertrand P Sacramento River Cats

Age 28 LHP 6'3" / 238 lbs AAA peak 0.7 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION67 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114122vR 130

ERA5.11

FIP5.11

K%12.7%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%2.4%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 75 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5050

CMD3535

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	24	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Black	5	1	8	28	8	0	0	20%	1.6	28.6%	0.0%	28.6%	0.0%	0.00	0.69	—
2022	24	ROK RAW	ACL Giants Black	5	1	8	28	8	0	0	20%	1.6	28.6%	0.0%	28.6%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	19	118	487	92	35	6	70%	4.4	14.8%	8.1%	6.7%	1.5%	3.65	3.71	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	19	118	487	92	35	6	70%	4.4	14.8%	8.1%	6.7%	1.5%	3.65	3.71	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	19	118	487	92	35	6	70%	4.4	18.9%	7.2%	11.7%	1.2%	3.65	3.09	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	29	156	653	125	45	14	97%	5.2	15.8%	7.2%	8.6%	2.6%	4.15	4.10	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	29	156	653	125	45	14	97%	5.2	15.8%	7.2%	8.6%	2.6%	4.15	4.10	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	29	156	653	125	45	14	97%	5.2	19.1%	6.9%	12.3%	2.1%	4.15	3.53	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	144	594	101	52	11	96%	5.3	13.4%	10.2%	3.2%	2.0%	2.82	4.38	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	144	594	101	52	11	96%	5.3	13.4%	10.2%	3.2%	2.0%	2.82	4.38	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	26	144	594	101	52	11	96%	5.3	17.0%	8.8%	8.2%	1.9%	2.82	3.78	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	15	13	67	313	45	36	7	87%	4.5	11.9%	10.4%	1.6%	2.5%	5.37	4.75	—
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	15	13	67	313	45	36	7	87%	4.5	11.9%	10.4%	1.6%	2.5%	5.37	4.75	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AAA RAW	SF	15	13	67	313	45	36	7	87%	4.5	14.4%	11.5%	2.9%	2.2%	5.37	4.57	—
ROS	28	MLB MLE	SF	1	1	8	32	4	3	1	100%	7.6	12.7%	10.3%	2.4%	2.5%	5.11	5.11	-0.0
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	SF	—	—	75	345	49	39	8	—	—	14.2%	11.4%	2.8%	2.3%	5.35	4.79	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	SF	14	14	86	363	49	37	10	100%	6.1	13.4%	10.3%	3.1%	2.7%	5.10	5.16	-0.3
2028	30	MLB MLE	SF	13	13	81	341	47	35	10	100%	6.2	13.7%	10.4%	3.3%	3.0%	5.17	5.26	-0.3
2027	29	MLB CTX	SF	5	5	32	135	18	14	4	100%	6.4	13.4%	10.3%	3.1%	2.7%	5.10	5.16	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	SF	8	8	45	190	26	20	6	100%	5.6	13.7%	10.4%	3.3%	3.0%	5.17	5.26	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		13	13	77	325	44	34	9	100%	5.9	13.5%	10.3%	3.2%	2.9%	5.14	4.84	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	114	88	23	100%	6.0	13.5%	10.3%	3.2%	2.9%	5.14	4.84	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		104	88	493	2075	300	179	44	85%	4.7	14.5%	8.6%	5.8%	2.1%	3.74	4.14	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	36	200	842	122	73	18	85%	4.7	14.5%	8.6%	5.8%	2.1%	3.74	4.14	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
John Michael Bertrand (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.11	12.7%	10.3%	2.5%	—	5.21	13.5%	3.2%	167	+0.10	—	—	—
Alejandro Astorga L 2015 · 4.35 FIP	28	SP	4.35	11.5%	10.2%	1.7%	.283	3.87	14.7%	6.1%	220	-0.48	3.72	311	89
Edgar Osuna L 2017 · 5.05 FIP	29	SP	5.05	10.6%	8.2%	3.3%	.345	5.09	10.0%	2.8%	83	+0.04	5.05	175	86
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.56	14.1%	5.6%	242	-0.56	2.99	313	86
Anthony Vasquez L 2015 · 4.16 FIP	28	SP-	4.16	11.8%	9.3%	1.6%	.278	4.19	14.3%	7.3%	423	+0.03	4.02	642	83
Michael Roth L 2018 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	12.1%	8.5%	3.0%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	483	83
Kramer Sneed L 2016 · 4.21 FIP	27	SP	4.21	13.2%	8.2%	2.2%	.265	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	116	82
Kyle Hald L 2015 · 4.33 FIP	26	SP	4.33	12.1%	7.4%	2.4%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.33	124	82
Amilcar Gaxiola L 2019 · 4.61 FIP	28	SP-	4.61	11.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	321	82
Orlando Lara L 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SP	4.29	15.2%	10.3%	2.1%	.348	4.08	14.2%	7.2%	230	-0.21	3.85	426	82
Matt Tracy L 2017 · 4.82 FIP	28	SP-	4.82	16.1%	9.4%	3.5%	.325	3.24	13.9%	3.5%	49	-1.58	3.24	298	81
Alejandro Soto L 2015 · 4.41 FIP	29	SP	4.41	12.8%	7.0%	2.7%	.367	4.07	14.6%	9.1%	128	-0.34	3.96	280	80
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	78
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	78
John Gast L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SP	3.96	14.1%	7.9%	1.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	122	78
Mike Belfiore L 2015 · 4.63 FIP	26	SP	4.63	12.0%	9.2%	2.5%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.63	135	78
Santiago Gutierrez L 2015 · 4.29 FIP	29	SP	4.29	11.0%	7.9%	2.0%	.314	3.92	14.9%	6.1%	169	-0.37	3.90	341	77
Jeffry Antigua L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	25	SP-	4.60	11.4%	8.6%	2.5%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	133	77
Brad Mills L 2015 · 4.63 FIP	30	SP	4.63	14.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.294	6.13	14.4%	2.6%	44	+1.50	4.63	182	76
Darin Gorski L 2016 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP	4.50	15.0%	9.8%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	206	76
Blair Walters L 2016 · 4.66 FIP	26	SP	4.66	14.6%	14.2%	1.8%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.87	262	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	86	13.2%	10.3%	1.06	5.13
Chi Chi González ('22)	1.3	64	13.3%	9.0%	1.41	5.44
Matt Manning ('24)	1.3	64	16.4%	7.8%	1.06	4.43
Daniel Mengden ('19)	1.5	73	17.3%	7.7%	1.24	4.68
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58