Colton Gordon

P Nashville Sounds

Age 28 LHP 6'4" / 225 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2027 ILForty Man (40M)

Overview

AAARP40M40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	AAAHOU	25	24	123	3.94	3.41	23.8%	7.5%	—	K 20.4% · BB 6.7% · FIP 3.89
2025	26	MIX2 levels	31	25	142	4.56	4.65	20.9%	5.4%	1.2	K 19.6% · BB 5.1% · FIP 4.85
2026	27	MIX2 levels	29	24	139	4.60	4.27	19.3%	5.2%	1.9	K 16.9% · BB 4.7% · FIP 4.52
2027PROJ	28	MLBMIL	8	8	47	4.97	5.08	14.8%	4.6%	0.2
2028PROJ91% MLB	29	MLBMIL	7	7	44	5.13	5.24	14.2%	4.8%	0.1
2029PROJ92% MLB	30	MLBMIL	6	6	34	5.32	5.44	13.5%	5.1%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%15

FB Velo10

xwOBA vs10

CompsEric Stults (age 28) · Roy Merritt (age 30) · Matt Lujan (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113122vR 130

ERA4.97

FIP5.08

K%14.8%

BB%4.6%

K-BB%10.2%

Proj IP53

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL6565

CMD5050

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.3

Whiff%

p1016.4%

p1517.1%

xwOBA vs

p100.371

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	11	54	202	78	8	4	73%	3.6	28.4%	4.7%	23.7%	2.6%	2.35	2.73	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	11	54	202	78	8	4	73%	3.6	38.6%	4.0%	34.7%	2.0%	2.35	1.61	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	24	128	557	151	58	17	83%	4.4	22.2%	10.7%	11.6%	3.2%	4.14	4.35	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	24	128	557	151	58	17	83%	4.4	27.1%	10.4%	16.7%	3.1%	4.14	3.82	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	25	24	123	522	124	39	13	96%	4.9	20.4%	6.7%	13.7%	3.0%	3.94	3.89	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	25	24	123	522	124	39	13	96%	4.9	20.4%	6.7%	13.7%	3.0%	3.94	3.89	—
2024	25	AAA RAW	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	25	24	123	522	124	39	13	96%	4.9	23.8%	7.5%	16.3%	2.5%	3.94	3.41	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	25	142	612	128	33	29	81%	4.6	19.6%	5.1%	14.5%	5.0%	4.56	4.85	+0.9
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	25	142	612	128	33	29	81%	4.6	19.6%	5.1%	14.5%	5.0%	4.56	4.85	+0.9
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	25	142	612	128	33	29	81%	4.6	20.9%	5.4%	15.5%	4.7%	4.56	4.65	+1.2
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	24	139	596	115	31	23	83%	4.8	16.9%	4.7%	12.1%	4.1%	4.60	4.52	+1.4
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	24	139	596	115	31	23	83%	4.8	16.9%	4.7%	12.1%	4.1%	4.60	4.52	+1.4
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	24	139	596	115	31	23	83%	4.8	19.3%	5.2%	14.1%	3.9%	4.60	4.27	+1.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			25	15	100	449	84	20	27	60%	4.0	18.7%	4.5%	14.3%	6.0%	5.83	5.52	-0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	MIL	8	8	47	198	29	9	8	100%	5.9	14.8%	4.6%	10.2%	4.1%	4.97	5.08	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	MIL	8	8	49	206	29	10	9	100%	6.1	14.2%	4.8%	9.4%	4.3%	5.13	5.24	+0.1
2029	30	MLB MLE	MIL	6	6	36	154	21	8	7	100%	6.1	13.5%	5.1%	8.4%	4.5%	5.32	5.44	-0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	MIL	7	7	44	186	26	9	8	100%	6.3	14.2%	4.8%	9.4%	4.3%	5.13	5.24	+0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	MIL	6	6	34	144	19	7	6	100%	5.7	13.5%	5.1%	8.4%	4.5%	5.32	5.44	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		38	28	178	777	130	36	41	74%	4.7	16.7%	4.7%	12.0%	5.3%	5.56	5.20	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		43	31	200	873	146	40	46	74%	4.7	16.7%	4.7%	12.0%	5.3%	5.56	5.20	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		129	108	586	2489	508	164	94	84%	4.5	20.4%	6.6%	13.9%	3.8%	4.14	4.29	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	37	200	849	173	56	32	84%	4.5	20.4%	6.6%	13.9%	3.8%	4.14	4.29	-0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAANashville Sounds · 125 IPFIP 3.89 → 4.24 (+0.34)K% 19.6% → 16.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.58%	—	×0.860	16.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.32%	—	×0.900	4.79%
HR / BF /BF	3.23%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.56%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.89 → 4.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 56 IPFIP 3.82 → 4.29 (+0.47)K% 24.0% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.03%	—	×0.860	20.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.87%	—	×0.900	6.18%
HR / BF /BF	3.43%	÷0.961	×1.100	3.93%

Result: FIP 3.82 → 4.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 123 IPFIP 3.41 → 3.89 (+0.48)K% 23.8% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.75%	—	×0.860	20.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.47%	—	×0.900	6.72%
HR / BF /BF	2.49%	÷0.903	×1.100	3.03%

Result: FIP 3.41 → 3.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 93 IPFIP 2.92 → 3.41 (+0.49)K% 30.7% → 24.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.71%	—	×0.810	24.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.14%	—	×1.100	10.05%
HR / BF /BF	2.28%	÷1.322	×1.200	2.07%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 164).

Result: FIP 2.92 → 3.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 35 IPFIP 5.95 → 6.61 (+0.66)K% 18.4% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.40%	—	×0.860	15.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.50%	—	×0.900	12.15%
HR / BF /BF	4.91%	÷0.896	×1.100	6.02%

Result: FIP 5.95 → 6.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Asheville Tourists · 20 IPFIP 1.84 → 3.05 (+1.21)K% 37.7% → 29.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.66%	—	×0.770	29.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.90%	—	×1.150	4.48%
HR / BF /BF	2.60%	÷0.972	×1.250	3.34%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 1.84 → 3.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 20 IPFIP 1.30 → 2.45 (+1.15)K% 36.0% → 26.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.00%	—	×0.740	26.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.00%	—	×1.180	4.72%
HR / BF /BF	1.33%	÷0.949	×1.300	1.83%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 1.30 → 2.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKFCL Astros Orange · 13 IPFIP 0.99 → 2.66 (+1.67)K% 44.0% → 29.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	44.00%	—	×0.680	29.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.00%	—	×1.250	5.00%
HR / BF /BF	2.00%	÷1.056	×1.400	2.65%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 111).

Result: FIP 0.99 → 2.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Colton Gordon (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.08	14.8%	4.6%	4.1%	—	5.33	13.9%	9.0%	85	+0.25	—	—	—
Eric Stults L 2008 · 4.39 FIP	28	SP	4.39	18.0%	6.6%	3.6%	.267	4.42	14.5%	4.7%	62	+0.03	3.50	773	73
Roy Merritt L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	30	SP-	3.93	13.3%	5.9%	2.2%	.293	3.95	16.2%	10.4%	116	+0.02	3.93	129	71
Matt Lujan L 2017 · 4.69 FIP	28	SP-	4.69	14.3%	6.4%	3.6%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	227	66
Carlos Hernandez L 2015 · 5.42 FIP	28	SP	5.42	11.0%	5.0%	4.8%	.320	3.30	14.0%	10.2%	228	-2.12	2.83	331	66
John Lamb L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	28	SP	4.64	22.5%	7.2%	4.6%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	390	65
Jack Snodgrass L 2016 · 5.01 FIP	28	SP-	5.01	15.7%	10.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.66	118	64
Matt Tracy L 2017 · 4.82 FIP	28	SP-	4.82	16.1%	9.4%	3.5%	.325	3.24	13.9%	3.5%	49	-1.58	3.24	298	64
David Rollins L 2018 · 5.68 FIP	28	SP	5.68	15.9%	3.4%	6.4%	.435	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	132	63
Andrew Albers L 2013 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	10.0%	2.8%	2.4%	.275	4.12	13.8%	7.3%	225	+0.20	2.98	568	62
Brad Mills L 2014 · 5.61 FIP	29	SP-	5.61	18.8%	10.9%	5.0%	.364	5.00	14.5%	4.0%	182	-0.61	4.22	243	62
Nick Additon L 2016 · 4.47 FIP	28	SP-	4.47	12.9%	6.8%	2.9%	.303	3.13	19.3%	10.2%	26	-1.34	3.13	217	61
Alejandro Soto L 2015 · 4.41 FIP	29	SP	4.41	12.8%	7.0%	2.7%	.367	4.07	14.6%	9.1%	128	-0.34	3.96	280	60
Roenis Elías L 2017 · 5.83 FIP	28	SP	5.83	14.1%	6.1%	5.7%	.301	3.73	19.2%	11.0%	142	-2.10	3.15	728	60
Dylan Dodd L 2024 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	17.5%	6.0%	4.2%	.338	3.97	26.5%	21.7%	123	-0.74	3.31	475	60
Marco Tovar L 2017 · 5.04 FIP	28	SP-	5.04	16.1%	11.3%	3.4%	.317	4.78	12.6%	7.0%	82	-0.26	3.78	327	60
Edgar Osuna L 2017 · 5.05 FIP	29	SP	5.05	10.6%	8.2%	3.3%	.345	5.09	10.0%	2.8%	83	+0.04	5.05	175	59
Darin Gorski L 2016 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP	4.50	15.0%	9.8%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	206	59
David Hurlbut L 2018 · 4.84 FIP	28	SP	4.84	13.9%	6.5%	3.8%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	478	58
Misael Siverio L 2017 · 4.32 FIP	28	SP	4.32	17.3%	9.1%	2.8%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	185	58
Scott Downs L 2004 · 4.65 FIP	28	SP	4.65	13.4%	7.4%	3.2%	.324	3.80	19.9%	11.7%	229	-0.85	2.68	748	57

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	60	16.2%	4.9%	1.94	5.42
Oscar Zamora ('74-'78, -1 WAR*)	1.1	75	15.2%*	5.7%*	2.30*	5.10*
Jose Bautista ('88-'97, -2 WAR*)	3.4	86	14.0%*	5.8%*	1.72*	4.90*
Adam Morgan ('21)	1.8	62	20.8%	7.2%	1.58	4.80
Kris Wilson ('06)	1.2	81	13.0%	6.2%	1.96	5.44
Bob Wells ('02)	3.2	79	15.0%	7.2%	1.43	5.03
Steve Shields ('85-'89, -3 WAR*)	1.1	55	17.0%*	9.0%*	1.61*	5.49*