Colton Gordon — OGILVIE

Colton Gordon P Nashville Sounds

Age 27 LHP 6'4" / 225 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2026 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION134 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107115vR 123

ERA4.47

FIP4.72

K%16.0%

BB%5.3%

K-BB%10.8%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 141 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL6565

CMD5050

K†3045

CH+1.0 (12%)

SI (13%)

CU (3%)

CT-1.4 (2%)

SL-1.6 (35%)

FB-4.5 (50%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	11	54	202	78	8	4	73%	3.6	28.4%	4.7%	23.7%	2.6%	2.35	2.73	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	11	54	202	78	8	4	73%	3.6	38.6%	4.0%	34.7%	2.0%	2.35	1.61	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	24	128	557	151	58	17	83%	4.4	22.1%	10.7%	11.4%	3.2%	4.14	4.36	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	24	128	557	151	58	17	83%	4.4	22.1%	10.7%	11.4%	3.2%	4.14	4.36	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	24	128	557	151	58	17	83%	4.4	27.1%	10.4%	16.7%	3.1%	4.14	3.82	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	25	24	123	522	124	39	13	96%	4.9	19.7%	6.7%	13.0%	3.0%	3.94	3.95	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	25	24	123	522	124	39	13	96%	4.9	19.7%	6.7%	13.0%	3.0%	3.94	3.95	—
2024	25	AAA RAW	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	25	24	123	522	124	39	13	96%	4.9	23.8%	7.5%	16.3%	2.5%	3.94	3.41	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	25	142	612	128	33	29	81%	4.6	19.4%	5.1%	14.2%	5.0%	4.56	4.87	+0.0
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	25	142	612	128	33	29	81%	4.6	19.4%	5.1%	14.2%	5.0%	4.56	4.87	+0.0
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	25	142	612	128	33	29	81%	4.6	20.9%	5.4%	15.5%	4.7%	4.56	4.65	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			24	15	95	429	83	19	27	62%	4.0	19.3%	4.4%	14.9%	6.3%	5.95	5.64	-0.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	28	24	134	576	114	30	23	86%	4.8	16.8%	4.7%	12.0%	4.3%	4.63	4.65	—
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	28	24	134	576	114	30	23	86%	4.8	16.8%	4.7%	12.0%	4.3%	4.63	4.65	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AAA RAW	HOU	24	23	125	526	103	28	17	96%	5.2	19.6%	5.3%	14.3%	3.2%	4.11	3.89	—
2026	27	MLB RAW	HOU	4	1	9	50	11	2	6	25%	2.3	22.0%	4.0%	18.0%	12.0%	11.57	8.34	—
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	HOU	4	1	9	50	11	2	6	25%	2.3	22.0%	4.0%	18.0%	12.0%	11.57	8.34	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	HOU	1	1	7	31	5	2	1	100%	7.2	16.0%	5.3%	10.8%	4.2%	4.47	4.72	+0.0
ROS	27	MLB CTX	HOU	1	1	7	30	5	2	1	100%	7.0	16.0%	5.3%	10.8%	4.2%	4.47	4.72	+0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	HOU	—	—	141	607	119	32	24	—	—	19.6%	5.2%	14.4%	4.0%	4.63	4.66	+0.4
FULL	27	MLB A+C	HOU	—	—	17	70	119	32	24	—	—	169.9%	45.2%	124.7%	34.7%	39.41	13.52	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	86	363	62	20	17	100%	6.1	17.2%	5.6%	11.6%	4.8%	5.24	5.38	-0.5
2028	29	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	82	347	59	21	17	100%	5.9	16.9%	5.9%	11.0%	4.8%	5.33	5.45	-0.5
2029	30	MLB MLE	HOU	13	13	77	326	60	18	16	100%	5.9	18.5%	5.5%	12.9%	4.9%	5.31	5.33	-0.4
2030	31	MLB MLE	HOU	12	12	72	304	54	18	16	100%	6.0	17.8%	6.0%	11.9%	5.1%	5.44	5.54	-0.5
2027	28	MLB CTX	HOU	14	14	82	346	59	19	17	100%	5.9	17.2%	5.6%	11.6%	4.8%	5.24	5.38	-0.4
2028	29	MLB CTX	HOU	13	13	78	329	56	20	16	100%	6.0	16.9%	5.9%	11.0%	4.8%	5.33	5.45	-0.5
2029	30	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	73	308	57	17	15	100%	6.1	18.5%	5.5%	12.9%	4.9%	5.31	5.33	-0.4
2030	31	MLB CTX	HOU	11	11	68	287	51	17	15	100%	6.2	17.8%	6.0%	11.9%	5.1%	5.44	5.54	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		76	67	404	1732	312	94	91	88%	5.3	18.0%	5.4%	12.6%	5.2%	5.46	5.15	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	33	200	858	154	47	45	88%	5.3	18.0%	5.4%	12.6%	5.2%	5.46	5.15	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		128	108	581	2469	498	163	95	84%	4.5	20.2%	6.6%	13.6%	3.8%	4.15	4.34	-2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	37	200	849	171	56	33	84%	4.5	20.2%	6.6%	13.6%	3.8%	4.15	4.34	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Colton Gordon (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.12	15.9%	5.3%	4.2%	—	5.39	17.5%	11.8%	245	+0.27	—	—	—
Ryan Hartman L 2021 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP-	4.83	18.8%	5.8%	4.7%	.279	5.20	14.1%	7.8%	11	+0.37	3.24	456	71
Yohan Flande L 2015 · 4.68 FIP	29	SP-	4.68	12.9%	5.5%	3.6%	.289	3.27	15.1%	8.4%	172	-1.41	3.18	335	71
Eric Surkamp L 2015 · 4.00 FIP	28	SP-	4.00	18.2%	6.7%	2.9%	.308	5.09	16.4%	7.1%	68	+1.09	4.00	182	70
Jared Koenig L 2021 · 5.11 FIP	27	SP	5.11	16.0%	9.4%	4.0%	.270	3.79	20.0%	12.2%	267	-1.32	2.79	473	69
Tyler Anderson L 2017 · 4.02 FIP	27	SP-	4.02	22.4%	7.3%	3.4%	.315	4.35	20.7%	12.2%	256	+0.33	3.10	1,288	69
Ryan Carpenter L 2018 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP	4.57	17.6%	5.8%	4.0%	.355	5.30	17.3%	9.7%	118	+0.73	3.52	667	69
Dillon Overton L 2019 · 5.52 FIP	27	SP	5.52	17.7%	6.4%	5.7%	.330	5.64	15.9%	8.1%	45	+0.12	3.54	631	68
Derek Holland L 2015 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	16.7%	6.1%	4.3%	.270	4.63	18.8%	9.6%	414	-0.20	3.75	686	68
Daniel Camarena L 2019 · 4.90 FIP	26	SP	4.90	18.5%	4.9%	5.0%	.335	4.47	14.9%	6.6%	83	-0.43	3.76	674	68
Dylan Dodd L 2023 · 5.61 FIP	25	SP	5.61	14.3%	7.7%	5.0%	.334	4.37	21.6%	16.1%	226	-1.24	3.31	471	67
David Holmberg L 2018 · 4.78 FIP	27	SP-	4.78	12.0%	6.6%	3.4%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	514	67
Justin Nicolino L 2019 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP	5.83	14.4%	7.3%	5.5%	.286	5.19	12.8%	4.9%	85	-0.64	4.09	835	67
Michael Roth L 2017 · 4.64 FIP	27	SP-	4.64	14.0%	5.9%	3.6%	.327	4.83	12.1%	3.6%	101	+0.19	3.96	483	67
Nick Bush L 2022 · 4.76 FIP	25	SP	4.76	19.3%	4.3%	5.0%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	320	67
Tyler Alexander L 2019 · 5.56 FIP	27	SP-	5.56	21.7%	9.8%	5.6%	.289	5.27	15.7%	5.0%	26	-0.29	5.27	128	66
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.56	14.1%	5.6%	242	-0.56	2.99	313	66
Tommy Henry L 2023 · 4.56 FIP	26	SP	4.56	17.4%	8.5%	3.4%	.285	4.83	16.8%	6.9%	285	+0.27	4.40	671	66
Miguel Pena L 2017 · 3.97 FIP	26	SP	3.97	16.8%	8.2%	2.3%	.288	5.08	16.0%	9.0%	68	+1.11	2.98	282	66
Cade Gibson L 2023 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP	4.57	15.0%	8.5%	3.0%	.306	3.43	18.9%	9.4%	222	-1.14	3.13	340	66
Mike Minor L 2016 · 5.63 FIP	28	SP	5.63	19.2%	11.8%	4.8%	.330	3.76	23.2%	16.4%	443	-1.87	2.43	807	66

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	79	17.2%	5.7%	1.85	5.23
Paolo Espino ('22)	1.2	82	19.4%	5.6%	1.82	4.70
Wade LeBlanc ('21)	2.4	81	18.0%	6.0%	1.67	4.61
Adam Plutko ('21)	1.4	68	17.0%	7.2%	2.17	5.37
Sam Gaviglio ('19)	1.5	98	19.3%	6.9%	1.69	4.84
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43