Colton Gordon
P
Sugar Land Space Cowboys
+0.0
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 27
LHP
6'4" / 225 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2027
ERA5.06
FIP4.87
xFIP2.65
SIERA2.34
K%20.5%
BB%6.7%
K-BB%13.8%
IP86
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2027
STUF3535
CTRL6565
CMD5050
K†3040
FB Velo
p1091.1
Whiff%
p1018.0%
K%
p2819.0%
xwOBA vs
p330.332
CH+1.0 (12%)
SI (13%)
CU (3%)
CT-1.4 (5%)
SL-1.6 (30%)
FB-4.5 (50%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 15 | 11 | 54 | 202 | 78 | 8 | 4 | 28.4% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 2.35 | 2.72 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 29 | 24 | 128 | 557 | 151 | 58 | 17 | 22.3% | 11.3% | 3.3% | 4.14 | 4.44 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 25 | 24 | 123 | 522 | 124 | 39 | 13 | 20.9% | 7.8% | 3.1% | 3.94 | 4.02 | +1.8 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Houston Astros | 31 | 25 | 142 | 612 | 128 | 33 | 29 | 19.8% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.56 | 4.90 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Houston Astros | 4 | 4 | 19 | 78 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 19.4% | 7.1% | 1.9% | 3.32 | 3.39 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | HOU | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 20 | 8 | 5 | 15.6% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 5.20 | 5.25 | -0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 50 | 208 | 38 | 12 | 8 | 18.4% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 4.48 | 4.54 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 16 | 16 | 87 | 366 | 59 | 23 | 15 | 16.2% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 5.15 | 5.18 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 15 | 15 | 85 | 358 | 58 | 23 | 15 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 5.14 | 5.18 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 15 | 15 | 82 | 347 | 55 | 23 | 14 | 15.9% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 5.18 | 5.23 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 14 | 14 | 79 | 335 | 58 | 20 | 14 | 17.5% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 5.09 | 5.04 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 14 | 14 | 76 | 321 | 54 | 20 | 14 | 16.8% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 5.13 | 5.15 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 13 | 73 | 307 | 50 | 20 | 13 | 16.2% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 5.22 | 5.28 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 13 | 69 | 292 | 45 | 19 | 13 | 15.5% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 5.34 | 5.42 | -0.3 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | HOU | 12 | 12 | 65 | 275 | 40 | 19 | 12 | 14.7% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 5.48 | 5.57 | -0.4 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 61 | 257 | 36 | 18 | 12 | 14.0% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 5.63 | 5.74 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 104 | 88 | 466 | 1971 | 427 | 152 | 72 | 21.7% | 7.7% | 3.6% | 3.98 | 4.25 | +5.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 38 | 200 | 845 | 183 | 65 | 31 | 21.7% | 7.7% | 3.6% | 3.98 | 4.25 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Colton Gordon (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.25 | 15.6% | 6.1% | 4.2% | — | 5.20 | 16.1% | 9.6% | 254 | -0.05 | — | — | — |
| Matt Dermody L 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.90 | 17.6% | 5.2% | 4.8% | .294 | 4.18 | 19.8% | 16.7% | 23 | -0.72 | 2.38 | 348 | 75 |
| Ozzie Mendez L 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.15 | 14.6% | 6.7% | 2.6% | .269 | 3.94 | 11.3% | 3.0% | 68 | -0.21 | 3.90 | 161 | 75 |
| Greg Nappo L 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.12 | 17.2% | 10.3% | 4.0% | .285 | 6.29 | 12.3% | -0.3% | 11 | +1.17 | 3.36 | 144 | 74 |
| Derek Holland L 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.86 | 16.7% | 6.1% | 4.4% | .270 | 4.63 | 18.8% | 9.6% | 414 | -0.23 | 3.76 | 686 | 74 |
| Wei-Chung Wang L 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.88 | 16.0% | 8.7% | 3.7% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 387 | 73 |
| Jake McSteen L 2026 · 6.19 FIP | 27 | SW | 6.19 | 16.7% | 8.0% | 6.4% | .302 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.3% | 73 | -2.20 | 2.22 | 286 | 72 |
| Carlos Hernandez L 2027 · 5.52 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.52 | 11.0% | 5.0% | 4.9% | .320 | 3.31 | 14.0% | 10.2% | 228 | -2.21 | 2.83 | 331 | 72 |
| Ivan Pelaez L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.63 | 16.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.66 | 210 | 71 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.18 | 17.9% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 304 | 71 |
| Ryan Merritt L 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.37 | 15.1% | 6.2% | 5.0% | .357 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 600 | 70 |
| Stephen Peterson L 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.60 | 13.0% | 9.5% | 2.5% | .284 | 3.04 | 17.3% | 6.3% | 55 | -1.56 | 3.04 | 120 | 70 |
| Mike Minor L 2027 · 5.65 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.65 | 19.2% | 11.8% | 4.9% | .330 | 3.73 | 23.2% | 16.4% | 443 | -1.92 | 2.38 | 807 | 70 |
| Fernando Abad L 2028 · 5.62 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.62 | 22.0% | 7.8% | 6.2% | .256 | 3.71 | 20.5% | 11.9% | 90 | -1.91 | 2.38 | 306 | 70 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.26 | 13.4% | 10.0% | 3.7% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 256 | 69 |
| David Rollins L 2026 · 5.50 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.50 | 18.0% | 12.1% | 4.3% | .260 | 5.70 | 15.9% | 12.5% | 20 | +0.20 | 3.60 | 132 | 69 |
| Juan Martinez L 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.80 | 14.4% | 9.2% | 3.2% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 273 | 69 |
| Patrick Schuster L 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.42 | 19.8% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .381 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 160 | 69 |
| Juan Grullon L 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.67 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 134 | 69 |
| Brett Oberholtzer L 2026 · 5.77 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.77 | 16.8% | 8.7% | 5.5% | .303 | 4.54 | 13.0% | 5.4% | 264 | -1.23 | 3.89 | 442 | 69 |
| Bryan Harper L 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.19 | 19.3% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .197 | 4.65 | 14.9% | 1.0% | 46 | +0.46 | 4.19 | 133 | 68 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.