Colton Gordon
P
Sugar Land Space Cowboys
Age 27
LHP
6'4" / 225 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ILNot Yet Reported (NYR)
2026 ROS PROJECTION80 act + 63 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107116vR 125
ERA4.45
FIP4.70
K%16.5%
BB%5.7%
K-BB%10.7%
ROS IP63
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 143 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
CH+1.0 (12%)
SI (13%)
CU (3%)
CT-1.4 (2%)
SL-1.6 (35%)
FB-4.5 (50%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 15 | 11 | 54 | 202 | 78 | 8 | 4 | 73% | 3.6 | 28.4% | 4.7% | 23.7% | 2.7% | 2.35 | 2.76 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 15 | 11 | 54 | 202 | 78 | 8 | 4 | 73% | 3.6 | 38.6% | 4.0% | 34.7% | 2.0% | 2.35 | 1.61 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 24 | 128 | 557 | 151 | 58 | 17 | 83% | 4.4 | 22.3% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 3.2% | 4.14 | 4.38 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 24 | 128 | 557 | 151 | 58 | 17 | 83% | 4.4 | 27.1% | 10.4% | 16.7% | 3.1% | 4.14 | 3.82 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 25 | 24 | 123 | 522 | 124 | 39 | 13 | 96% | 4.9 | 20.9% | 7.8% | 13.1% | 3.4% | 3.94 | 4.19 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 25 | 24 | 123 | 522 | 124 | 39 | 13 | 96% | 4.9 | 23.8% | 7.5% | 16.3% | 2.5% | 3.94 | 3.41 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 25 | 142 | 612 | 128 | 33 | 29 | 81% | 4.6 | 19.8% | 5.5% | 14.3% | 4.8% | 4.56 | 4.76 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 25 | 142 | 612 | 128 | 33 | 29 | 81% | 4.6 | 20.9% | 5.4% | 15.5% | 4.7% | 4.56 | 4.65 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Houston Astros | 18 | 14 | 80 | 346 | 66 | 16 | 13 | 78% | 4.4 | 17.2% | 4.8% | 12.3% | 4.0% | 4.61 | 4.44 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | HOU | 10 | 10 | 63 | 264 | 43 | 15 | 11 | 100% | 6.3 | 16.5% | 5.7% | 10.7% | 4.1% | 4.45 | 4.70 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | HOU | 10 | 10 | 63 | 266 | 44 | 15 | 11 | 100% | 6.3 | 16.5% | 5.7% | 10.7% | 4.1% | 4.45 | 4.70 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 143 | 610 | 109 | 31 | 24 | — | — | 17.9% | 5.1% | 12.8% | 3.9% | 4.54 | 4.55 | +1.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 72 | 304 | 109 | 31 | 24 | — | — | 36.1% | 10.3% | 25.8% | 7.9% | 9.00 | 5.67 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 14 | 14 | 86 | 363 | 64 | 22 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.5% | 6.0% | 11.5% | 4.8% | 5.24 | 5.37 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 14 | 14 | 82 | 347 | 60 | 22 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.2% | 6.3% | 10.9% | 4.8% | 5.33 | 5.45 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 13 | 77 | 326 | 61 | 19 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.8% | 5.9% | 12.9% | 4.9% | 5.30 | 5.33 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 14 | 14 | 82 | 346 | 61 | 21 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.5% | 6.0% | 11.5% | 4.8% | 5.24 | 5.37 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 13 | 78 | 329 | 57 | 21 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.2% | 6.3% | 10.9% | 4.8% | 5.33 | 5.45 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 12 | 12 | 73 | 308 | 58 | 18 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.8% | 5.9% | 12.9% | 4.9% | 5.30 | 5.33 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 74 | 65 | 391 | 1677 | 302 | 94 | 85 | 88% | 5.3 | 18.0% | 5.6% | 12.4% | 5.1% | 5.32 | 5.08 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 33 | 200 | 858 | 155 | 48 | 43 | 88% | 5.3 | 18.0% | 5.6% | 12.4% | 5.1% | 5.32 | 5.08 | +0.8 | ||
| Career | — | 118 | 98 | 527 | 2239 | 471 | 164 | 84 | 83% | 4.5 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 13.7% | 3.7% | 4.10 | 4.30 | +6.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 37 | 200 | 849 | 179 | 62 | 32 | 83% | 4.5 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 13.7% | 3.7% | 4.10 | 4.30 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Colton Gordon (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.11 | 16.3% | 5.8% | 4.1% | — | 5.38 | 17.8% | 11.8% | 245 | +0.27 | — | — | — |
| Danny Wirchansky L 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.98 | 16.2% | 7.4% | 4.2% | .246 | 6.63 | 13.0% | 0.2% | 68 | +1.65 | 4.98 | 179 | 74 |
| Eric Surkamp L 2027 · 4.29 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.29 | 18.2% | 6.7% | 3.4% | .308 | 5.15 | 16.4% | 7.1% | 68 | +0.86 | 4.29 | 182 | 74 |
| Ryan Hartman L 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 18.8% | 5.8% | 4.7% | .279 | 5.28 | 14.1% | 7.8% | 11 | +0.47 | 3.17 | 456 | 72 |
| Yohan Flande L 2028 · 4.45 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.45 | 12.9% | 5.5% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.24 | 15.1% | 8.4% | 172 | -1.21 | 3.16 | 335 | 71 |
| Jared Koenig L 2026 · 5.63 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.63 | 16.0% | 9.4% | 4.9% | .270 | 3.75 | 20.2% | 12.2% | 267 | -1.88 | 2.86 | 455 | 70 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.27 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 5.0% | .289 | 5.37 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 26 | +0.10 | 5.27 | 128 | 69 |
| Ryan Carpenter L 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.78 | 17.6% | 5.8% | 4.4% | .355 | 5.57 | 17.3% | 9.7% | 118 | +0.79 | 3.31 | 667 | 68 |
| Miguel Pena L 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.14 | 16.8% | 8.2% | 2.6% | .288 | 5.94 | 16.0% | 9.0% | 68 | +1.80 | 2.86 | 282 | 67 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2023 · 4.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.93 | 116 | 67 |
| Michael Roth L 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.55 | 14.0% | 5.9% | 3.4% | .327 | 4.86 | 12.1% | 3.6% | 101 | +0.31 | 4.22 | 483 | 67 |
| Mike Minor L 2027 · 5.50 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.50 | 19.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .330 | 3.78 | 23.2% | 16.4% | 443 | -1.72 | 2.42 | 807 | 67 |
| Braeden Fausnaught L 2025 · 4.91 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.91 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 4.2% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.57 | 242 | 67 |
| Derek Holland L 2027 · 4.87 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.87 | 16.7% | 6.1% | 4.4% | .270 | 4.62 | 18.8% | 9.6% | 414 | -0.25 | 3.76 | 686 | 67 |
| Dillon Overton L 2026 · 5.69 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.69 | 17.7% | 6.4% | 6.0% | .330 | 5.48 | 15.9% | 8.1% | 45 | -0.21 | 3.39 | 631 | 67 |
| Charlie McDaniel L 2024 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.26 | 16.9% | 6.3% | 3.3% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 174 | 66 |
| Daniel Camarena L 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.69 | 18.5% | 4.9% | 4.6% | .335 | 4.28 | 14.9% | 6.6% | 83 | -0.41 | 3.74 | 674 | 66 |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.53 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 3.3% | .311 | 4.31 | 17.2% | 9.9% | 300 | -0.22 | 3.88 | 523 | 66 |
| Ben Holmes L 2026 · 5.63 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.63 | 19.7% | 11.1% | 5.1% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 451 | 66 |
| Garrett Gainey L 2025 · 5.52 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.52 | 17.8% | 8.2% | 5.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 116 | 66 |
| Chris O'Grady L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.44 | 21.4% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 232 | 65 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 79 | 17.5% | 6.0% | 1.80 | 5.19 |
| Paolo Espino ('22) | 3 | 82 | 19.4% | 5.6% | 1.82 | 4.70 |
| Sam Gaviglio ('19) | 3 | 98 | 19.3% | 6.9% | 1.69 | 4.84 |
| Wade LeBlanc ('21) | 6 | 81 | 18.0% | 6.0% | 1.67 | 4.61 |
| Adam Morgan ('21) | 6 | 59 | 20.5% | 7.1% | 1.56 | 4.77 |
| Adam Plutko ('21) | 4 | 68 | 17.0% | 7.2% | 2.17 | 5.37 |
| Dillon Gee ('17) | 3 | 71 | 16.4% | 6.7% | 1.56 | 4.63 |