Dylan Dodd

P Atlanta Braves

Age 29 LHP 6'2" / 210 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX2 levels	26	20	110	5.42	4.31	20.4%	6.7%	1.4	K 17.5% · BB 6.0% · FIP 4.71
2025	27	MIX2 levels	52	0	60	3.88	3.38	26.1%	3.4%	0.8	K 24.2% · BB 3.2% · FIP 3.68
2026	28	MIX2 levels	57	0	63	3.02	3.99	29.8%	6.5%	0.4	K 28.7% · BB 6.3% · FIP 4.25
2027PROJ	29	MLBATL	50	0	52	3.82	4.00	25.5%	4.5%	0.3
2028PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBATL	48	0	50	4.05	4.21	24.8%	4.8%	0.2
2029PROJ95% MLB	31	MLBATL	41	0	43	4.29	4.44	24.0%	5.1%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs90

K%78

FB Velo45

Form3.18 ERA (proj 3.82) · K 24.6% (proj 25.5%) · BB 4.3% (proj 4.5%) · last 90d · 17 IP through Oct 27

CompsAndy Otero (age 29) · Tyler Holton (age 28) · Hideki Okajima (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8291vR 99

ERA3.82

FIP4.00

K%25.5%

BB%4.5%

K-BB%21.0%

Proj IP56

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL7070

CMD6060

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4594.2

Whiff%

p7729.5%

p7827.3%

xwOBA vs

p900.273

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	4	14	61	20	3	4	100%	3.5	32.8%	4.9%	27.9%	6.6%	9.00	4.55	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	4	14	61	20	3	4	100%	3.5	32.8%	4.9%	27.9%	6.6%	9.00	4.60	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	26	142	589	153	31	10	100%	5.5	20.4%	6.0%	14.3%	2.1%	3.36	3.31	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	26	142	589	153	31	10	100%	5.5	26.0%	5.3%	20.7%	1.7%	3.36	2.52	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	22	112	503	86	41	23	92%	4.7	14.7%	7.7%	7.0%	5.0%	6.25	5.58	-0.2
2023	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	22	112	503	86	41	23	92%	4.7	17.1%	8.2%	8.9%	4.6%	6.25	5.33	+0.1
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	20	110	491	100	33	18	77%	4.2	17.5%	6.0%	11.5%	4.2%	5.42	4.71	+0.9
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	20	110	491	100	33	18	77%	4.2	17.5%	6.0%	11.5%	4.2%	5.42	4.71	+0.9
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	20	110	491	100	33	18	77%	4.2	20.4%	6.7%	13.6%	3.7%	5.42	4.31	+1.4
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	60	238	62	8	9	0%	1.2	24.2%	3.2%	20.9%	4.0%	3.88	3.68	+0.6
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	60	238	62	8	9	0%	1.2	24.2%	3.2%	20.9%	4.0%	3.88	3.68	+0.6
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	60	238	62	8	9	0%	1.2	26.1%	3.4%	22.7%	3.8%	3.88	3.38	+0.8
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	0	63	248	74	16	12	0%	1.1	28.7%	6.3%	22.3%	5.0%	3.02	4.25	+0.2
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	0	63	248	74	16	12	0%	1.1	28.7%	6.3%	22.3%	5.0%	3.02	4.25	+0.2
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	57	0	63	248	74	16	12	0%	1.1	29.8%	6.5%	23.4%	4.8%	3.02	3.99	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			84	7	121	503	100	30	21	8%	1.4	19.9%	6.0%	13.9%	4.2%	4.39	4.45	+0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	ATL	50	0	52	220	56	10	8	0%	1.0	25.5%	4.5%	21.0%	3.8%	3.82	4.00	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	ATL	50	0	52	220	55	11	9	0%	1.0	24.8%	4.8%	20.0%	4.0%	4.05	4.21	+0.2
2029	31	MLB MLE	ATL	43	0	45	191	46	10	8	0%	1.1	24.0%	5.1%	18.9%	4.3%	4.29	4.44	+0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	ATL	48	0	50	211	52	10	9	0%	1.0	24.8%	4.8%	20.0%	4.0%	4.05	4.21	+0.2
2029	31	MLB CTX	ATL	41	0	43	182	44	9	8	0%	1.0	24.0%	5.1%	18.9%	4.3%	4.29	4.44	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		172	7	214	894	196	49	37	4%	1.2	21.9%	5.5%	16.3%	4.2%	4.29	4.24	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		161	7	200	837	183	46	35	4%	1.2	21.9%	5.5%	16.3%	4.2%	4.29	4.24	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		189	72	501	2130	428	130	85	38%	2.7	20.1%	6.1%	14.0%	4.0%	4.63	4.35	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		75	29	200	850	171	52	34	38%	2.7	20.1%	6.1%	14.0%	4.0%	4.63	4.35	+0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 13 IPFIP 5.60 → 6.50 (+0.90)K% 38.9% → 33.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.89%	—	×0.860	33.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.56%	—	×0.900	5.00%
HR / BF /BF	9.26%	÷1.000	×1.100	10.19%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.60 → 6.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 25 IPFIP 2.98 → 3.62 (+0.64)K% 31.4% → 27.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.37%	—	×0.860	26.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.94%	—	×0.900	2.65%
HR / BF /BF	3.92%	÷0.961	×1.100	4.49%

Result: FIP 2.98 → 3.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 108 IPFIP 4.27 → 4.71 (+0.44)K% 20.3% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.33%	—	×0.860	17.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.64%	—	×0.900	5.98%
HR / BF /BF	3.73%	÷0.968	×1.100	4.24%

Result: FIP 4.27 → 4.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 75 IPFIP 4.87 → 5.27 (+0.40)K% 20.4% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.36%	—	×0.860	17.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.12%	—	×0.900	8.21%
HR / BF /BF	4.26%	÷0.984	×1.100	4.76%

Result: FIP 4.87 → 5.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Rome Braves · 89 IPFIP 2.49 → 3.37 (+0.88)K% 24.7% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.66%	—	×0.770	18.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.61%	—	×1.150	5.30%
HR / BF /BF	1.63%	÷0.928	×1.250	2.19%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 86).

Result: FIP 2.49 → 3.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAMississippi Braves · 46 IPFIP 2.40 → 3.19 (+0.79)K% 28.4% → 23.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.35%	—	×0.810	22.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.70%	—	×1.100	7.37%
HR / BF /BF	1.55%	÷0.927	×1.200	2.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 2.40 → 3.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 7 IPFIP 3.42 → 3.98 (+0.55)K% 26.9% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.92%	—	×0.880	23.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.85%	—	×1.050	4.04%
HR / BF /BF	3.85%	÷0.981	×1.100	4.31%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 3.42 → 3.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAugusta GreenJackets · 11 IPFIP 1.23 → 2.11 (+0.87)K% 32.6% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.56%	—	×0.740	24.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.98%	—	×1.180	8.23%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.192	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 138).

Result: FIP 1.23 → 2.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dylan Dodd (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.00	25.5%	4.5%	3.8%	—	4.32	24.4%	19.5%	98	+0.32	—	—	—
Andy Otero L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	29	SP-	3.89	24.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.298	4.36	14.5%	5.6%	68	+0.47	2.86	200	63
Tyler Holton L 2024 · 2.97 FIP	28	SU	2.97	21.8%	4.5%	2.1%	.197	4.34	19.4%	13.8%	151	+1.37	2.97	439	62
Hideki Okajima L 2007 · 3.05 FIP	31	SU	3.05	23.2%	5.5%	2.2%	.234	3.87	20.2%	12.6%	169	+0.82	3.05	238	62
Jake McSteen L 2024 · 4.64 FIP	28	SU	4.64	19.7%	6.4%	4.4%	.348	2.22	18.9%	13.2%	18	-2.42	2.22	286	61
Brady Feigl L 2019 · 3.62 FIP	28	SU	3.62	25.4%	3.8%	4.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	2.69	212	60
Tanner Banks L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	29	SW	3.72	24.0%	5.3%	3.6%	.360	3.34	23.7%	16.9%	226	-0.38	2.91	1,059	60
Glen Perkins L 2012 · 2.90 FIP	29	SU	2.90	27.8%	4.6%	2.8%	.269	2.93	26.9%	22.5%	181	+0.03	2.16	611	59
Zac Rosscup L 2017 · 2.85 FIP	29	SU	2.85	29.5%	7.8%	2.3%	.275	4.42	26.4%	5.9%	35	+1.57	2.56	173	58
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	57
Matt Grace L 2018 · 3.13 FIP	29	SU	3.13	19.4%	4.5%	2.0%	.273	5.21	17.0%	12.1%	47	+2.08	2.68	289	57
Kyle Regnault L 2018 · 3.82 FIP	29	SU	3.82	27.6%	9.7%	3.3%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	204	57
Jason Gurka L 2017 · 3.38 FIP	29	SU	3.38	22.4%	6.2%	2.5%	.336	4.29	18.0%	11.0%	48	+0.91	2.82	183	56
Yuki Matsui L 2024 · 3.63 FIP	28	SU	3.63	26.8%	8.9%	3.0%	.242	4.25	23.9%	12.6%	140	+0.62	3.63	203	56
Tim Mayza L 2021 · 2.84 FIP	29	SU	2.84	27.1%	5.7%	2.4%	.257	3.31	21.0%	15.2%	145	+0.47	2.24	584	56
Matt Dermody L 2019 · 4.18 FIP	29	SU	4.18	19.8%	3.1%	4.3%	.347	4.22	17.9%	12.4%	79	+0.04	2.38	348	56
Matt Thornton L 2006 · 3.43 FIP	29	SU	3.43	21.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.263	2.61	27.2%	20.5%	196	-0.82	1.71	663	56
Ryan O'Rourke L 2016 · 3.05 FIP	28	SU	3.05	23.4%	6.7%	1.9%	.284	4.08	22.1%	7.8%	56	+1.03	3.05	145	55
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	55
Sean Doolittle L 2016 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	29.0%	3.9%	4.2%	.276	2.69	30.7%	26.4%	156	-0.78	1.39	438	55
Chad Bell L 2018 · 4.38 FIP	29	SU	4.38	18.8%	7.4%	3.5%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	393	55

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	46	22.7%	5.5%	1.58	4.19
Casey Fien ('17)	1.4	58	21.0%	5.1%	1.46	4.42
Erik Swanson ('25)	1.3	53	25.7%	6.8%	1.66	4.20
Julio Navarro ('62-'70, 1 WAR*)	1.1	53	21.7%*	7.8%*	1.55*	4.13*
Gabe White ('05)	2.9	57	19.0%	5.9%	1.51	4.51
Pete Ladd ('79-'86, 0 WAR*)	1.4	72	24.6%*	7.8%*	1.53*	4.42*
Luis DeLeon ('81-'89, 4 WAR*)	1.7	67	25.0%*	5.7%*	1.69*	3.69*