Erik Swanson
P
Toronto Blue Jays
Age 32
RHP
6'3" / 225 lbs
MLB
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 57 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132123vR 113
ERA4.61
FIP5.00
K%22.4%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%12.9%
ROS IP57
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
FB-1.1 (46%)
SL-2.1 (10%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | MIX | 4 levels | 10 | 0 | 15 | 62 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 22.6% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 1.6% | 2.35 | 3.51 | — |
| 2015 | 21 | MIX | 4 levels | 10 | 0 | 15 | 62 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 22.6% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 1.6% | 2.35 | 3.49 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 24 | 17 | 96 | 402 | 93 | 30 | 4 | 71% | 4.0 | 17.1% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 1.6% | 3.46 | 3.67 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 24 | 17 | 96 | 402 | 93 | 30 | 4 | 71% | 4.0 | 23.1% | 7.5% | 15.7% | 1.0% | 3.46 | 2.64 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ | Tampa Yankees | 20 | 20 | 100 | 416 | 84 | 13 | 10 | 100% | 5.0 | 15.5% | 3.6% | 12.0% | 3.3% | 3.95 | 4.08 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ | Tampa Yankees | 20 | 20 | 100 | 416 | 84 | 13 | 10 | 100% | 5.0 | 20.2% | 3.1% | 17.1% | 2.4% | 3.95 | 3.11 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 20 | 115 | 449 | 133 | 29 | 10 | 91% | 5.2 | 25.2% | 6.9% | 18.3% | 2.2% | 2.58 | 3.08 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 20 | 115 | 449 | 133 | 29 | 10 | 91% | 5.2 | 29.6% | 6.5% | 23.2% | 2.2% | 2.58 | 2.67 | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 14 | 82 | 356 | 80 | 23 | 22 | 38% | 2.2 | 21.5% | 6.6% | 14.9% | 6.4% | 5.68 | 5.65 | -0.6 |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 14 | 82 | 356 | 80 | 23 | 22 | 38% | 2.2 | 22.5% | 6.5% | 16.0% | 6.2% | 5.68 | 5.47 | -0.4 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 9 | 0 | 8 | 37 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 24.3% | 5.4% | 18.9% | 8.1% | 12.91 | 6.18 | -0.1 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 9 | 0 | 8 | 37 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 24.3% | 5.4% | 18.9% | 8.1% | 12.91 | 6.62 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 2 | 37 | 152 | 36 | 9 | 6 | 6% | 1.1 | 24.3% | 6.2% | 18.1% | 3.7% | 3.38 | 3.85 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 2 | 37 | 152 | 36 | 9 | 6 | 6% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 5.9% | 17.8% | 3.9% | 3.38 | 3.98 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 59 | 1 | 56 | 214 | 73 | 9 | 3 | 2% | 0.9 | 34.0% | 4.4% | 29.6% | 1.5% | 1.62 | 1.63 | +1.9 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 59 | 1 | 56 | 214 | 73 | 9 | 3 | 2% | 0.9 | 34.1% | 4.2% | 29.9% | 1.4% | 1.62 | 1.66 | +1.9 |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 70 | 0 | 68 | 265 | 76 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.6% | 8.0% | 20.6% | 3.1% | 2.93 | 3.37 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 70 | 0 | 68 | 265 | 76 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.7% | 7.9% | 20.8% | 3.0% | 2.93 | 3.32 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 64 | 0 | 57 | 261 | 56 | 27 | 18 | 0% | 0.9 | 20.1% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 6.79 | 6.77 | -1.5 |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 64 | 0 | 57 | 261 | 56 | 27 | 18 | 0% | 0.9 | 21.5% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 6.9% | 6.79 | 6.66 | -1.4 |
| 2025 | 31 | MIX | 4 levels | 13 | 0 | 11 | 57 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 0% | 0.8 | 14.0% | 10.5% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 12.66 | 6.14 | -0.2 |
| 2025 | 31 | MIX | 4 levels | 13 | 0 | 11 | 57 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 0% | 0.8 | 14.0% | 10.5% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 12.66 | 6.94 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 54 | 0 | 57 | 242 | 54 | 23 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 9.5% | 12.9% | 4.0% | 4.61 | 5.00 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 50 | 0 | 52 | 222 | 48 | 22 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 4.3% | 5.01 | 5.28 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 46 | 0 | 48 | 202 | 42 | 21 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.7% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 4.6% | 5.35 | 5.58 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | TOR | 41 | 0 | 43 | 181 | 36 | 20 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 11.0% | 8.7% | 4.9% | 5.69 | 5.92 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 46 | 21 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 4.3% | 5.01 | 5.28 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 38 | 19 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.7% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 4.6% | 5.35 | 5.58 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | TOR | 35 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 31 | 17 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.7% | 11.0% | 8.7% | 4.9% | 5.69 | 5.92 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 370 | 11 | 396 | 1641 | 395 | 128 | 74 | 3% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 7.8% | 16.2% | 4.5% | 4.56 | 4.54 | +4.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 187 | 6 | 200 | 829 | 199 | 65 | 37 | 3% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 7.8% | 16.2% | 4.5% | 4.56 | 4.54 | +2.0 | ||
| Career | — | 363 | 74 | 645 | 2671 | 592 | 188 | 96 | 20% | 1.8 | 22.2% | 7.0% | 15.1% | 3.6% | 3.97 | 4.10 | +9.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 113 | 23 | 200 | 828 | 184 | 58 | 30 | 20% | 1.8 | 22.2% | 7.0% | 15.1% | 3.6% | 3.97 | 4.10 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Erik Swanson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.00 | 22.4% | 9.5% | 4.0% | — | 5.57 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 143 | +0.57 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 77 |
| Mike Broadway R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 74 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.66 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 4.0% | .280 | 3.59 | 27.2% | 17.5% | 149 | -1.07 | 3.07 | 363 | 73 |
| Logan Ondrusek R 2027 · 5.45 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.45 | 23.8% | 7.4% | 6.2% | .353 | 5.61 | 17.5% | 9.2% | 120 | +0.16 | 4.35 | 138 | 72 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 71 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.28 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 4.8% | .362 | 4.22 | 17.0% | 8.6% | 21 | -1.06 | 2.90 | 227 | 71 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.31 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .319 | 2.62 | 28.5% | 21.7% | 186 | -1.69 | 2.01 | 380 | 70 |
| Angel Castro R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 69 |
| David Phelps R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.23 | 24.5% | 10.9% | 3.3% | .289 | 3.49 | 26.7% | 16.6% | 84 | -0.74 | 2.51 | 373 | 69 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.65 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 3.7% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 101 | 68 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2025 · 3.86 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.86 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.3% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 137 | 68 |
| Manny Acosta R 2029 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 68 |
| Jon Edwards R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.46 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 132 | 68 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.62 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.1% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 221 | 68 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.20 | 24.5% | 7.4% | 4.1% | .291 | 5.21 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 36 | +1.01 | 3.05 | 176 | 68 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.94 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 3.0% | .292 | 3.77 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 55 | -0.17 | 3.15 | 272 | 67 |
| Jean Machi R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 67 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 67 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.91 | 16.2% | 7.1% | 4.2% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 337 | 67 |
| Alex Wilson R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.01 | 19.4% | 6.0% | 5.1% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.40 | 326 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 50 | 21.2% | 10.2% | 1.71 | 5.12 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |