Erik Swanson — OGILVIE

Erik Swanson P Toronto Blue Jays

Age 32 RHP 6'3" / 225 lbs MLB

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.59

FIP4.96

K%22.3%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%13.1%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†5555

FB-1.1 (46%)

SL-2.1 (10%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	21	MIX MLE	4 levels	10	0	15	62	14	7	1	0%	1.5	22.6%	11.3%	11.3%	1.6%	2.35	3.51	—
2015	21	MIX RAW	4 levels	10	0	15	62	14	7	1	0%	1.5	22.6%	11.3%	11.3%	1.6%	2.35	3.49	—
2016	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	24	17	96	402	93	30	4	71%	4.0	17.1%	8.8%	8.3%	1.4%	3.46	3.56	—
2016	22	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	24	17	96	402	93	30	4	71%	4.0	23.1%	7.5%	15.7%	1.0%	3.46	2.64	—
2017	23	A+ MLE	Tampa Yankees	20	20	100	416	84	13	10	100%	5.0	15.5%	3.6%	12.0%	3.2%	3.95	3.98	—
2017	23	A+ RAW	Tampa Yankees	20	20	100	416	84	13	10	100%	5.0	20.2%	3.1%	17.1%	2.4%	3.95	3.11	—
2018	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	20	115	449	133	29	10	91%	5.2	25.2%	6.9%	18.3%	2.3%	2.58	3.14	—
2018	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	20	115	449	133	29	10	91%	5.2	29.6%	6.5%	23.2%	2.2%	2.58	2.67	—
2019	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	14	82	356	80	23	22	38%	2.2	21.5%	6.6%	14.9%	6.4%	5.68	5.62	-1.0
2019	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	14	82	356	80	23	22	38%	2.2	22.5%	6.5%	16.0%	6.2%	5.68	5.47	-0.9
2020	26	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	9	0	8	37	9	2	3	0%	0.9	24.3%	5.4%	18.9%	8.1%	12.91	6.18	-0.1
2020	26	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	9	0	8	37	9	2	3	0%	0.9	24.3%	5.4%	18.9%	8.1%	12.91	6.62	-0.2
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	2	37	152	36	9	6	6%	1.1	24.3%	6.2%	18.1%	3.6%	3.38	3.79	+0.3
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	2	37	152	36	9	6	6%	1.1	23.7%	5.9%	17.8%	3.9%	3.38	3.98	+0.3
2022	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	59	1	56	214	73	9	3	2%	0.9	34.0%	4.4%	29.6%	1.5%	1.62	1.60	+2.0
2022	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	59	1	56	214	73	9	3	2%	0.9	34.1%	4.2%	29.9%	1.4%	1.62	1.66	+1.9
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	70	0	68	265	76	21	8	0%	1.0	28.6%	8.0%	20.6%	3.1%	2.93	3.37	+0.9
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	70	0	68	265	76	21	8	0%	1.0	28.6%	8.0%	20.6%	3.1%	2.93	3.37	+0.9
2023	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	70	0	68	265	76	21	8	0%	1.0	28.7%	7.9%	20.8%	3.0%	2.93	3.32	+1.0
2024	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	64	0	57	261	56	27	18	0%	0.9	19.8%	10.0%	9.8%	7.3%	6.79	6.68	-1.4
2024	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	64	0	57	261	56	27	18	0%	0.9	19.8%	10.0%	9.8%	7.3%	6.79	6.68	-1.4
2024	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	64	0	57	261	56	27	18	0%	0.9	21.5%	10.3%	11.1%	6.9%	6.79	6.66	-1.4
2025	31	MIX MLE	4 levels	13	0	11	57	8	6	3	0%	0.8	14.0%	10.5%	3.5%	5.3%	12.66	6.14	-0.2
2025	31	MIX MLE	4 levels	13	0	11	57	8	6	3	0%	0.8	14.0%	10.5%	3.5%	5.3%	12.66	6.14	-0.2
2025	31	MIX RAW	4 levels	13	0	11	57	8	6	3	0%	0.8	14.0%	10.5%	3.5%	5.3%	12.66	6.94	-0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			246	11	266	1092	281	71	49	4%	1.1	25.7%	6.5%	19.2%	4.5%	4.20	4.18	+1.2
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	32	MLB	TOR	5	0	5	21	5	2	1	0%	1.0	22.3%	9.2%	13.1%	4.0%	4.59	4.96	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	TOR	50	0	52	222	47	21	9	0%	1.1	21.4%	9.6%	11.8%	4.3%	4.98	5.24	-0.4
2028	34	MLB MLE	TOR	46	0	48	202	41	20	9	0%	1.0	20.5%	10.1%	10.4%	4.6%	5.32	5.55	-0.5
2029	35	MLB MLE	TOR	41	0	43	181	35	19	9	0%	1.0	19.6%	10.7%	8.9%	4.9%	5.66	5.88	-0.6
2027	33	MLB CTX	TOR	48	0	50	211	45	20	9	0%	1.0	21.4%	9.6%	11.8%	4.3%	4.98	5.24	-0.4
2028	34	MLB CTX	TOR	41	0	43	182	37	18	8	0%	1.0	20.5%	10.1%	10.4%	4.6%	5.32	5.55	-0.5
2029	35	MLB CTX	TOR	35	0	37	156	31	17	8	0%	1.1	19.6%	10.7%	8.9%	4.9%	5.66	5.88	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		370	11	396	1641	394	126	74	3%	1.1	24.0%	7.7%	16.3%	4.5%	4.55	4.53	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		187	6	200	829	199	64	37	3%	1.1	24.0%	7.7%	16.3%	4.5%	4.55	4.53	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		363	74	645	2671	592	186	95	20%	1.8	22.1%	7.0%	15.2%	3.6%	3.97	4.06	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		113	23	200	828	183	58	29	20%	1.8	22.1%	7.0%	15.2%	3.6%	3.97	4.06	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Erik Swanson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.96	22.3%	9.2%	4.0%	—	5.54	20.6%	10.5%	143	+0.58	—	—	—
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	77
Brad Boxberger R 2020 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	22.8%	10.1%	4.0%	.280	3.49	27.2%	17.5%	149	-1.16	3.01	363	75
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	74
Junichi Tazawa R 2018 · 5.14 FIP	32	SU	5.14	20.4%	10.1%	4.5%	.362	4.16	17.0%	8.6%	21	-0.98	2.94	227	73
Logan Ondrusek R 2018 · 5.51 FIP	33	SU	5.51	23.8%	7.4%	6.3%	.353	5.51	17.5%	9.2%	120	+0.00	4.34	138	72
Joakim Soria R 2016 · 4.33 FIP	32	SU	4.33	23.2%	9.2%	3.7%	.319	2.63	28.5%	21.7%	186	-1.70	2.01	380	72
David Phelps R 2019 · 4.35 FIP	32	SU	4.35	24.5%	10.9%	3.5%	.289	3.46	26.7%	16.6%	84	-0.89	2.50	373	71
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	71
Jonathan Broxton R 2016 · 3.77 FIP	32	SU	3.77	22.0%	7.3%	2.9%	.256	4.34	20.5%	9.0%	16	+0.57	3.67	137	71
Tanner Scheppers R 2017 · 4.86 FIP	30	SU	4.86	15.7%	6.7%	4.1%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	101	70
Chris Hatcher R 2017 · 4.31 FIP	32	SU	4.31	24.5%	7.4%	4.3%	.291	5.32	18.0%	8.4%	36	+1.01	2.92	176	70
Cory Gearrin R 2018 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	8.1%	3.1%	.292	3.78	19.5%	9.5%	55	-0.24	3.15	272	70
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	69
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	69
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	69
Austin Adams R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	32	SU	5.80	20.8%	10.6%	5.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	162	68
Alex Wilson R 2019 · 5.06 FIP	32	SU	5.06	19.4%	6.0%	5.2%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	326	68
Nate Jones R 2018 · 4.09 FIP	32	SU	4.09	23.4%	10.9%	2.9%	.279	5.85	21.4%	13.8%	38	+1.76	2.57	157	68
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	68
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	50	21.0%	9.8%	1.71	5.10
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78