Erik Swanson
P
Toronto Blue Jays
+0.0
WAR
Age 32
RHP
6'3" / 225 lbs
MLB
ERA4.48
FIP4.95
xFIP9.14
SIERA7.27
K%23.0%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%13.6%
IP36
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL5050
CMD5050
K†5555
FB Velo
p4193.9
Whiff%
p3723.5%
K%
p4922.0%
xwOBA vs
p170.351
FB-1.1 (46%)
SL-2.1 (10%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 10 | 0 | 15 | 62 | 14 | 7 | 1 | — | — | — | 2.35 | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 24 | 17 | 96 | 402 | 93 | 30 | 4 | 17.1% | 8.8% | 1.4% | 3.46 | 3.55 | +1.9 |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ | Tampa Yankees | 20 | 20 | 100 | 416 | 84 | 13 | 10 | 15.5% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.95 | 3.97 | +1.5 |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 22 | 20 | 115 | 449 | 133 | 29 | 10 | 25.2% | 6.9% | 2.4% | 2.58 | 3.14 | +2.8 |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 37 | 14 | 82 | 356 | 80 | 23 | 22 | 21.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.68 | 5.66 | -0.5 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 9 | 0 | 8 | 37 | 9 | 2 | 3 | — | — | — | 12.91 | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 35 | 2 | 37 | 152 | 36 | 9 | 6 | 24.3% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 3.38 | 3.82 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 59 | 1 | 56 | 214 | 73 | 9 | 3 | 34.0% | 4.4% | 1.4% | 1.62 | 1.58 | +2.1 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 70 | 0 | 68 | 265 | 76 | 21 | 8 | 28.6% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 2.93 | 3.48 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 64 | 0 | 57 | 261 | 56 | 27 | 18 | 20.1% | 10.7% | 7.1% | 6.79 | 6.66 | -1.1 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 13 | 0 | 11 | 57 | 8 | 6 | 3 | — | — | — | 12.66 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 35 | 14 | 6 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 4.0% | 4.41 | 4.91 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 32 | 14 | 6 | 22.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | 4.79 | 5.04 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 30 | 13 | 6 | 21.5% | 9.8% | 4.1% | 5.02 | 5.18 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | TOR | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 27 | 13 | 6 | 20.8% | 10.0% | 4.3% | 5.21 | 5.33 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 36 | MLB | TOR | 29 | — | 29 | 121 | 24 | 12 | 5 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 4.4% | 5.38 | 5.49 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 363 | 74 | 645 | 2671 | 592 | 188 | 95 | 22.2% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 3.97 | 4.07 | +9.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 113 | 23 | 200 | 828 | 183 | 58 | 29 | 22.2% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 3.97 | 4.07 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Erik Swanson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.91 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 4.0% | — | 5.18 | 21.5% | 11.7% | 98 | +0.27 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 84 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.77 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 4.2% | .280 | 3.48 | 27.2% | 17.5% | 149 | -1.29 | 3.02 | 363 | 81 |
| Mike Broadway R 2025 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 78 |
| Logan Ondrusek R 2027 · 5.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.50 | 23.8% | 7.4% | 6.3% | .353 | 5.51 | 17.5% | 9.2% | 120 | +0.01 | 4.34 | 138 | 76 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.19 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 4.6% | .362 | 4.14 | 17.0% | 8.6% | 21 | -1.05 | 2.99 | 227 | 76 |
| David Phelps R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.40 | 24.5% | 10.9% | 3.6% | .289 | 3.37 | 26.7% | 16.6% | 84 | -1.03 | 2.49 | 373 | 76 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2025 · 4.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.20 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.9% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 137 | 74 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 74 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.37 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.8% | .319 | 2.59 | 28.5% | 21.7% | 186 | -1.78 | 2.00 | 380 | 73 |
| Matt Shoemaker R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.74 | 22.2% | 8.3% | 2.7% | .181 | 5.12 | 18.8% | 11.1% | 159 | +1.38 | 3.20 | 592 | 72 |
| Jon Edwards R 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.43 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 132 | 72 |
| Nate Jones R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.08 | 23.4% | 10.9% | 2.9% | .279 | 5.52 | 21.4% | 13.8% | 38 | +1.44 | 2.61 | 157 | 71 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.08 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .292 | 3.82 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 55 | -0.26 | 3.17 | 272 | 71 |
| Zack Segovia R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .314 | 3.37 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.44 | 3.37 | 144 | 70 |
| Manny Acosta R 2029 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 70 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2027 · 4.47 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.47 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.9% | .263 | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.49 | 3.98 | 104 | 70 |
| Rafael Martín R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.75 | 20.5% | 10.7% | 3.7% | .265 | 3.96 | 21.3% | 15.8% | 110 | -0.79 | 2.89 | 227 | 70 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.99 | 24.5% | 7.4% | 3.7% | .291 | 5.41 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 36 | +1.42 | 2.93 | 176 | 70 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2024 · 4.82 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.82 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 101 | 69 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 221 | 69 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.