Tyler Holton
P
Detroit Tigers
+0.8
WAR
Age 30
LHP
6'2" / 200 lbs
MLB
Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 0.7 · 2026
ERA3.60
FIP4.25
xFIP4.61
SIERA4.65
K%21.5%
BB%5.7%
K-BB%15.8%
IP82
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2026
K†5050
CT+1.8 (33%)
FB+0.9 (31%)
SL (17%)
SI (19%)
CU (5%)
CH-1.9 (14%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 23 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 4 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 5 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.38 | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA | Reno Aces | 26 | 11 | 64 | 294 | 78 | 18 | 7 | 22.0% | 6.6% | 2.2% | 6.72 | 3.30 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 34 | 2 | 54 | 222 | 49 | 19 | 6 | 20.7% | 9.8% | 3.1% | 4.19 | 4.30 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 63 | 1 | 93 | 357 | 81 | 20 | 13 | 22.8% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 2.52 | 3.44 | +1.9 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 66 | 9 | 94 | 354 | 77 | 16 | 7 | 21.8% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 2.19 | 2.93 | +2.5 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 70 | 6 | 79 | 312 | 64 | 16 | 15 | 20.5% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.66 | 4.53 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 8 | 0 | 7 | 31 | 5 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 1.23 | — | — |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | DET | 13 | 13 | 74 | 313 | 63 | 18 | 11 | 20.1% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 3.50 | 4.35 | +0.6 |
| 2026 Total | 30 | MLB | DET | — | — | 82 | 344 | 68 | 22 | 12 | 19.7% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 3.30 | 3.96 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | DET | 14 | 14 | 79 | 332 | 69 | 19 | 11 | 20.9% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 4.02 | 4.30 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | DET | 14 | 14 | 76 | 319 | 65 | 18 | 11 | 20.3% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 4.26 | 4.41 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | DET | 13 | 13 | 72 | 304 | 60 | 18 | 11 | 19.7% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 4.43 | 4.54 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | DET | 12 | 12 | 68 | 289 | 55 | 18 | 11 | 18.9% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 4.58 | 4.68 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | DET | 12 | 12 | 65 | 273 | 50 | 17 | 10 | 18.2% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 4.73 | 4.83 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | DET | 11 | 11 | 60 | 255 | 44 | 17 | 10 | 17.4% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 4.89 | 4.99 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 271 | 31 | 397 | 1591 | 343 | 100 | 46 | 21.6% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 3.56 | 3.67 | +7.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 137 | 16 | 200 | 802 | 173 | 50 | 23 | 21.6% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 3.56 | 3.67 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tyler Holton (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.35 | 20.1% | 5.7% | 3.4% | — | 4.41 | 20.3% | 14.6% | 226 | +0.06 | — | — | — |
| Travis Blackley L 2028 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.89 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.2% | .324 | 4.45 | 10.5% | 0.0% | 137 | -0.44 | 3.85 | 225 | 69 |
| Tomas Solis L 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.17 | 15.0% | 6.2% | 2.8% | .264 | 5.13 | 12.0% | 3.7% | 159 | +0.96 | 4.17 | 327 | 68 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.98 | 14.9% | 6.4% | 2.4% | .367 | 4.15 | 15.9% | 10.3% | 97 | +0.17 | 3.98 | 280 | 67 |
| Arturo Lopez L 2028 · 4.79 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.79 | 13.7% | 6.2% | 3.8% | .301 | 4.73 | 10.9% | 4.2% | 217 | -0.06 | 4.33 | 445 | 67 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2029 · 4.49 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.49 | 16.8% | 9.2% | 3.0% | .292 | 4.82 | 12.4% | 7.2% | 186 | +0.33 | 4.49 | 408 | 67 |
| Everett Teaford L 2027 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.43 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.43 | 103 | 67 |
| Ryan Bollinger L 2023 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.57 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 112 | 64 |
| Chris Rusin L 2026 · 3.28 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.28 | 20.9% | 5.3% | 2.3% | .273 | 4.17 | 15.6% | 7.2% | 120 | +0.89 | 2.93 | 488 | 63 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.36 | 22.7% | 5.4% | 2.7% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 153 | 63 |
| Alejandro Astorga L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.01 | 14.4% | 8.2% | 2.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 311 | 62 |
| Orlando Lara L 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.15 | 15.2% | 10.3% | 1.9% | .348 | 4.07 | 14.2% | 7.2% | 230 | -0.08 | 3.83 | 426 | 62 |
| Clayton Richard L 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.51 | 10.8% | 4.2% | 1.4% | .264 | 4.12 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 424 | +0.61 | 3.51 | 574 | 62 |
| Aaron Laffey L 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.11 | 13.5% | 9.7% | 1.7% | .318 | 4.39 | 12.5% | 5.2% | 192 | +0.28 | 3.52 | 282 | 61 |
| Kramer Sneed L 2023 · 4.25 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.25 | 13.2% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 116 | 61 |
| Edgar Osuna L 2025 · 5.04 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.04 | 10.6% | 8.2% | 3.3% | .345 | 5.08 | 10.0% | 2.8% | 83 | +0.04 | 5.04 | 175 | 60 |
| Greg Smith L 2027 · 3.37 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.37 | 11.8% | 5.3% | 1.1% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 120 | 60 |
| Kelvin Marte L 2025 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.76 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.9% | .300 | 5.25 | 12.0% | 1.2% | 71 | +0.49 | 3.44 | 360 | 60 |
| James Gillheeney L 2023 · 3.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.81 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 129 | 60 |
| Carlos Teller L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.63 | 12.2% | 9.6% | 2.5% | .322 | 4.86 | 13.1% | -1.1% | 60 | +0.23 | 3.74 | 333 | 60 |
| Héctor Santiago L 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 22.4% | 12.4% | 3.4% | .299 | 4.88 | 22.5% | 11.9% | 154 | +0.24 | 4.34 | 713 | 59 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Arb-1
MLB Debut 2022
Service 3.273 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2028
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-1 | $2M | +0.7 | $3M | +$1M |
| 2027 | Arb-2 | $3M | +0.7 | $3M | +$0.1M |
| 2028 | Arb-3 | $3M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $7M | $8M | +$1M | ||