Tyler Holton — OGILVIE

Tyler Holton P Detroit Tigers

Age 30 LHP 6'2" / 200 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION69 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8896vR 104

ERA3.55

FIP4.02

K%19.7%

BB%5.4%

K-BB%14.3%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 75 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL6565

CMD5555

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.5

Whiff%

p4124.0%

p3019.2%

xwOBA vs

p660.296

CT+1.8 (31%)

FB+0.9 (33%)

SL (15%)

SI (20%)

CU (3%)

CH-1.9 (17%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	23	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	4	2	5	21	5	4	0	50%	1.3	23.8%	19.0%	4.8%	0.0%	3.38	3.50	—
2019	23	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	4	2	5	21	5	4	0	50%	1.3	23.8%	19.0%	4.8%	0.0%	3.38	3.48	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	11	64	294	78	18	7	42%	2.5	22.0%	6.6%	15.4%	2.3%	6.72	3.35	—
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	11	64	294	78	18	7	42%	2.5	26.5%	6.1%	20.4%	2.4%	6.72	2.93	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	2	54	222	49	19	6	6%	1.6	20.7%	9.8%	10.9%	3.1%	4.19	4.30	+0.2
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	2	54	222	49	19	6	6%	1.6	22.1%	8.6%	13.5%	2.7%	4.19	3.79	+0.5
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	1	93	357	81	20	13	2%	1.5	22.8%	5.2%	17.6%	2.9%	2.52	3.43	+1.2
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	1	93	357	81	20	13	2%	1.5	22.8%	5.2%	17.6%	2.9%	2.52	3.43	+1.2
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	63	1	93	357	81	20	13	2%	1.5	22.7%	5.6%	17.1%	3.6%	2.52	3.82	+0.8
2024	28	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	66	9	94	354	77	16	7	14%	1.4	21.8%	4.5%	17.2%	2.1%	2.19	2.97	+1.8
2024	28	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	66	9	94	354	77	16	7	14%	1.4	21.8%	4.5%	17.2%	2.1%	2.19	2.97	+1.8
2024	28	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	66	9	94	354	77	16	7	14%	1.4	21.8%	4.5%	17.2%	2.0%	2.19	2.94	+1.8
2025	29	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	70	6	79	312	64	16	15	9%	1.1	20.5%	5.1%	15.4%	5.0%	3.66	4.77	-0.2
2025	29	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	70	6	79	312	64	16	15	9%	1.1	20.5%	5.1%	15.4%	5.0%	3.66	4.77	-0.2
2025	29	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	70	6	79	312	64	16	15	9%	1.1	20.5%	5.1%	15.4%	4.8%	3.66	4.56	-0.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			268	19	336	1316	276	68	40	7%	1.3	21.0%	5.2%	15.8%	3.0%	2.65	3.61	+3.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	63	3	69	287	55	17	8	5%	1.1	19.2%	5.9%	13.2%	2.9%	2.74	3.83	+0.6
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	63	3	69	287	55	17	8	5%	1.1	19.2%	5.9%	13.2%	2.9%	2.74	3.83	+0.6
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	MLB RAW	DET	63	3	69	287	55	17	8	5%	1.1	19.2%	5.9%	13.2%	2.8%	2.74	3.76	+0.6
SO FAR	30	MLB RAW	DET	63	3	69	287	55	17	8	5%	1.1	19.2%	5.9%	13.2%	2.8%	2.74	3.76	+0.6
ROS	30	MLB MLE	DET	6	0	6	27	5	1	1	0%	1.1	19.7%	5.4%	14.3%	3.5%	3.55	4.02	+0.0
ROS	30	MLB CTX	DET	6	0	6	25	5	1	1	0%	1.0	19.7%	5.4%	14.3%	3.5%	3.55	4.02	+0.0
2026 TOT	30	MLB MLE	DET	—	—	75	314	60	18	9	—	—	19.2%	5.9%	13.3%	2.8%	2.81	3.85	+0.8
FULL	30	MLB A+C	DET	—	—	75	318	60	18	9	—	—	18.9%	5.8%	13.1%	2.8%	2.81	3.77	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	DET	72	0	76	321	68	16	11	0%	1.1	21.1%	4.9%	16.2%	3.5%	4.07	4.24	+0.3
2028	32	MLB MLE	DET	67	0	70	297	60	16	11	0%	1.0	20.3%	5.3%	14.9%	3.7%	4.32	4.49	+0.0
2027	31	MLB CTX	DET	69	0	72	304	64	15	11	0%	1.0	21.1%	4.9%	16.2%	3.5%	4.07	4.24	+0.3
2028	32	MLB CTX	DET	64	0	67	283	57	15	11	0%	1.0	20.3%	5.3%	14.9%	3.7%	4.32	4.49	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		406	19	482	1929	403	100	62	5%	1.2	20.9%	5.2%	15.7%	3.2%	3.11	3.76	+4.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		169	8	200	801	167	42	26	5%	1.2	20.9%	5.2%	15.7%	3.2%	3.11	3.76	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		326	34	458	1847	393	113	55	10%	1.4	21.3%	6.1%	15.2%	3.0%	3.48	3.72	+4.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		142	15	200	806	172	49	24	10%	1.4	21.3%	6.1%	15.2%	3.0%	3.48	3.72	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Holton (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.32	20.5%	5.0%	3.5%	—	4.36	20.7%	15.6%	146	+0.04	—	—	—
Chris Rusin L 2017 · 3.30 FIP	30	SU	3.30	20.9%	5.3%	2.4%	.273	4.16	15.6%	7.2%	120	+0.86	2.89	488	78
Jose Alvarez L 2019 · 3.71 FIP	30	SU	3.71	20.0%	5.5%	2.9%	.319	3.46	16.5%	9.0%	80	-0.25	2.78	375	74
Buddy Boshers L 2018 · 3.22 FIP	30	SU	3.22	22.9%	6.6%	2.2%	.314	3.73	25.3%	14.9%	55	+0.51	2.80	223	73
Dan Jennings L 2017 · 4.32 FIP	30	SU	4.32	19.1%	9.0%	3.1%	.245	3.88	16.6%	8.5%	64	-0.44	3.11	244	72
Vidal Nuño L 2017 · 4.57 FIP	30	SU	4.57	20.7%	8.1%	4.0%	.315	4.17	20.6%	15.0%	125	-0.40	4.00	424	72
Antonio Bastardo L 2016 · 4.43 FIP	30	SU	4.43	24.9%	9.8%	4.0%	.268	8.05	15.0%	-1.4%	20	+3.62	3.10	145	67
Franklin Morales L 2015 · 3.37 FIP	29	SU	3.37	15.9%	5.4%	1.7%	.271	4.02	15.0%	7.0%	39	+0.65	3.37	101	66
Fernando Abad L 2016 · 3.77 FIP	30	SU	3.77	20.7%	10.1%	2.1%	.271	2.95	21.8%	17.1%	88	-0.82	2.37	306	66
Aaron Loup L 2018 · 3.16 FIP	30	SU	3.16	24.0%	7.7%	2.0%	.364	2.50	25.1%	18.8%	82	-0.66	2.07	363	65
Matt Grace L 2019 · 5.21 FIP	30	SU	5.21	17.0%	4.9%	5.3%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.68	289	65
Josh Osich L 2019 · 4.83 FIP	30	SU	4.83	22.4%	5.1%	5.4%	.258	5.37	21.9%	14.0%	48	+0.54	3.41	315	65
T.J. McFarland L 2019 · 4.07 FIP	30	SU	4.07	14.0%	6.0%	2.5%	.335	4.36	15.4%	9.5%	141	+0.29	2.91	602	64
Luis Avilán L 2019 · 4.51 FIP	30	SU	4.51	21.3%	9.9%	3.5%	.304	5.40	22.2%	12.2%	26	+0.89	2.62	256	64
Ryan Buchter L 2017 · 4.45 FIP	30	SU	4.45	24.3%	9.3%	4.0%	.202	4.19	25.3%	15.6%	85	-0.26	2.37	296	64
Blaine Hardy L 2017 · 3.44 FIP	30	SU	3.44	21.9%	5.6%	2.7%	.332	4.00	20.0%	13.9%	157	+0.56	2.74	417	64
David Huff L 2015 · 3.40 FIP	30	SW	3.40	17.1%	3.8%	2.3%	.271	4.06	19.5%	14.6%	52	+0.66	3.40	158	63
Adam Kolarek L 2019 · 3.71 FIP	30	SU	3.71	19.7%	5.2%	2.9%	.248	4.34	15.0%	5.7%	126	+0.63	2.20	504	63
Arturo Barradas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	29	SU	3.42	18.1%	7.0%	1.8%	.288	3.24	16.1%	9.5%	34	-0.18	3.24	163	63
Jeremy Bleich L 2017 · 3.20 FIP	30	SU	3.20	17.6%	5.0%	1.7%	.307	3.97	20.2%	13.5%	84	+0.77	3.20	241	63
Jeff Ibarra L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	18.1%	7.0%	2.1%	.342	2.85	20.6%	17.2%	29	-0.79	2.85	101	63

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	76	20.6%	5.1%	1.39	4.07
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Craig Stammen ('22)	2.0	66	23.0%	5.4%	1.19	3.36
Adbert Alzolay ('23)	1.1	70	26.1%	7.0%	1.32	3.84
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86