Tyler Holton
P
Detroit Tigers
Age 30
LHP
6'2" / 200 lbs
MLB
peak 0.2 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION42 act + 40 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8796vR 105
ERA3.44
FIP3.93
K%20.1%
BB%5.1%
K-BB%15.0%
ROS IP40
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 82 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1091.5
Whiff%
p4023.8%
K%
p3419.8%
xwOBA vs
p600.302
CT+1.8 (32%)
FB+0.9 (31%)
SL (17%)
SI (18%)
CU (5%)
CH-1.9 (16%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 23 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 4 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 50% | 1.3 | 23.8% | 19.0% | 4.8% | 0.0% | 3.38 | 3.50 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 4 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 50% | 1.3 | 23.8% | 19.0% | 4.8% | 0.0% | 3.38 | 3.48 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 11 | 64 | 294 | 78 | 18 | 7 | 42% | 2.5 | 22.0% | 6.6% | 15.4% | 2.0% | 6.72 | 3.18 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 11 | 64 | 294 | 78 | 18 | 7 | 42% | 2.5 | 26.5% | 6.1% | 20.4% | 2.4% | 6.72 | 2.93 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 2 | 54 | 222 | 49 | 19 | 6 | 6% | 1.6 | 20.7% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 3.2% | 4.19 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 2 | 54 | 222 | 49 | 19 | 6 | 6% | 1.6 | 22.1% | 8.6% | 13.5% | 2.7% | 4.19 | 3.79 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 63 | 1 | 93 | 357 | 81 | 20 | 13 | 2% | 1.5 | 22.8% | 5.2% | 17.6% | 3.0% | 2.52 | 3.50 | +1.9 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 63 | 1 | 93 | 357 | 81 | 20 | 13 | 2% | 1.5 | 22.7% | 5.6% | 17.1% | 3.6% | 2.52 | 3.82 | +1.6 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 66 | 9 | 94 | 354 | 77 | 16 | 7 | 14% | 1.4 | 21.8% | 4.5% | 17.2% | 2.2% | 2.19 | 3.02 | +2.5 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 66 | 9 | 94 | 354 | 77 | 16 | 7 | 14% | 1.4 | 21.8% | 4.5% | 17.2% | 2.0% | 2.19 | 2.94 | +2.6 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 70 | 6 | 79 | 312 | 64 | 16 | 15 | 9% | 1.1 | 20.5% | 5.1% | 15.4% | 5.3% | 3.66 | 4.90 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 70 | 6 | 79 | 312 | 64 | 16 | 15 | 9% | 1.1 | 20.5% | 5.1% | 15.4% | 4.8% | 3.66 | 4.56 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 40 | 2 | 42 | 177 | 35 | 10 | 5 | 5% | 1.1 | 19.8% | 5.6% | 14.1% | 2.8% | 3.21 | 3.70 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | DET | 38 | 0 | 40 | 167 | 34 | 9 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 5.1% | 15.0% | 3.4% | 3.44 | 3.93 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | DET | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 34 | 9 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.1% | 5.1% | 15.0% | 3.4% | 3.44 | 3.93 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | DET | — | — | 82 | 344 | 69 | 19 | 11 | — | — | 19.9% | 5.4% | 14.5% | 3.1% | 3.32 | 3.81 | +1.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | DET | — | — | 82 | 344 | 69 | 19 | 11 | — | — | 19.9% | 5.4% | 14.5% | 3.1% | 3.32 | 3.81 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | DET | 72 | 0 | 76 | 321 | 69 | 15 | 12 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 4.7% | 16.8% | 3.7% | 4.09 | 4.27 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | DET | 67 | 0 | 70 | 297 | 61 | 15 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.6% | 5.1% | 15.6% | 3.9% | 4.35 | 4.52 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | DET | 61 | 0 | 64 | 272 | 54 | 15 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.8% | 5.5% | 14.3% | 4.2% | 4.62 | 4.80 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | DET | 69 | 0 | 72 | 304 | 65 | 14 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 4.7% | 16.8% | 3.7% | 4.09 | 4.27 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | DET | 64 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 58 | 14 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.6% | 5.1% | 15.6% | 3.9% | 4.35 | 4.52 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | DET | 58 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 51 | 14 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.8% | 5.5% | 14.3% | 4.2% | 4.62 | 4.80 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 473 | 18 | 549 | 2218 | 464 | 112 | 76 | 4% | 1.2 | 20.9% | 5.1% | 15.9% | 3.4% | 3.35 | 3.85 | +10.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 172 | 7 | 200 | 808 | 169 | 41 | 28 | 4% | 1.2 | 20.9% | 5.1% | 15.9% | 3.4% | 3.35 | 3.85 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 303 | 33 | 431 | 1737 | 373 | 106 | 53 | 11% | 1.4 | 21.5% | 6.1% | 15.4% | 3.0% | 3.57 | 3.73 | +8.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 140 | 15 | 200 | 805 | 173 | 49 | 25 | 11% | 1.4 | 21.5% | 6.1% | 15.4% | 3.0% | 3.57 | 3.73 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tyler Holton (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.37 | 20.4% | 4.9% | 3.6% | — | 4.52 | 20.7% | 15.6% | 211 | +0.15 | — | — | — |
| Franklin Morales L 2025 · 3.36 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.36 | 15.9% | 5.4% | 1.7% | .271 | 4.06 | 15.0% | 7.0% | 39 | +0.70 | 3.36 | 101 | 64 |
| David Huff L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.63 | 17.1% | 3.8% | 2.7% | .271 | 4.00 | 19.5% | 14.6% | 52 | +0.37 | 3.63 | 158 | 64 |
| Jose Alvarez L 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.77 | 20.0% | 5.5% | 3.0% | .319 | 3.46 | 16.5% | 9.0% | 80 | -0.31 | 2.82 | 375 | 63 |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.37 | 19.1% | 9.0% | 3.2% | .245 | 3.99 | 16.6% | 8.5% | 64 | -0.38 | 3.09 | 244 | 63 |
| Antonio Bastardo L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.29 | 24.9% | 9.8% | 3.7% | .268 | 8.16 | 15.0% | -1.4% | 20 | +3.87 | 3.04 | 145 | 63 |
| Jeremy Bleich L 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.21 | 17.6% | 5.0% | 1.8% | .307 | 4.01 | 20.2% | 13.5% | 84 | +0.80 | 3.21 | 241 | 62 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.73 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 2.3% | .342 | 2.95 | 20.6% | 17.2% | 29 | -0.78 | 2.95 | 101 | 62 |
| Arturo Barradas L 2025 · 3.45 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.45 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .288 | 3.17 | 16.1% | 9.5% | 34 | -0.28 | 3.17 | 163 | 62 |
| Vidal Nuño L 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.69 | 20.7% | 8.1% | 4.2% | .315 | 4.13 | 20.6% | 15.0% | 125 | -0.56 | 4.07 | 424 | 62 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.83 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 175 | 61 |
| Adam Kolarek L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.88 | 19.7% | 5.2% | 3.2% | .248 | 4.34 | 15.0% | 5.7% | 126 | +0.46 | 2.20 | 504 | 61 |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.73 | 20.7% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .271 | 2.91 | 21.8% | 17.1% | 88 | -0.82 | 2.35 | 306 | 61 |
| Josh Outman L 2027 · 4.70 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.70 | 15.3% | 3.7% | 4.4% | .323 | 5.71 | 12.8% | -1.0% | 86 | +1.01 | 4.70 | 106 | 60 |
| Josh Osich L 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.78 | 22.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | .258 | 5.26 | 21.9% | 14.0% | 48 | +0.48 | 3.47 | 315 | 60 |
| Chris Narveson L 2029 · 4.83 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.83 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | .333 | 4.57 | 14.1% | 4.5% | 193 | -0.26 | 4.40 | 249 | 60 |
| Demetrio Gutierrez L 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.63 | 17.1% | 5.3% | 2.4% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 322 | 59 |
| Ryan Buchter L 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.42 | 24.3% | 9.3% | 4.0% | .202 | 4.09 | 25.3% | 15.6% | 85 | -0.33 | 2.37 | 296 | 59 |
| Richard Bleier L 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.42 | 12.4% | 3.2% | 1.8% | .250 | 3.05 | 12.9% | 10.1% | 105 | -0.37 | 2.28 | 591 | 59 |
| Phil Coke L 2029 · 4.00 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.00 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.96 | 3.04 | 101 | 59 |
| Matt Grace L 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.21 | 17.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 289 | 59 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 73 | 20.6% | 5.0% | 1.48 | 4.21 |
| Eli Morgan ('24) | 4 | 66 | 23.8% | 6.4% | 1.46 | 3.97 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Austin Pruitt ('23) | 5 | 61 | 16.9% | 5.6% | 1.22 | 4.45 |
| Adam Morgan ('21) | 6 | 59 | 20.5% | 7.1% | 1.56 | 4.77 |
| Paolo Espino ('22) | 3 | 82 | 19.4% | 5.6% | 1.82 | 4.70 |
| Craig Stammen ('22) | 6 | 66 | 23.0% | 5.4% | 1.19 | 3.36 |