Tanner Banks
P
Philadelphia Phillies
+0.7
WAR
Age 34
LHP
6'1" / 205 lbs
MLB
Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 0.7 · 2026
ERA3.81
FIP3.81
xFIP4.30
SIERA4.11
K%23.4%
BB%6.1%
K-BB%17.3%
IP60
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2026
K†5555
FB Velo
p2592.7
Whiff%
p2621.9%
K%
p5322.8%
xwOBA vs
p590.303
FB+1.7 (36%)
SI (17%)
SL-1.2 (59%)
CH-2.1 (5%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | A | Kannapolis Intimidators | 22 | 14 | 86 | 351 | 43 | 9 | 3 | 8.4% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 2.71 | 3.44 | +1.7 |
| 2016 | 24 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 27 | 27 | 159 | 658 | 116 | 31 | 10 | 13.3% | 5.5% | 1.9% | 3.50 | 3.69 | +2.9 |
| 2017 | 25 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 26 | 25 | 141 | 603 | 113 | 37 | 10 | 14.7% | 6.9% | 2.1% | 4.28 | 3.90 | +2.2 |
| 2018 | 26 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 23 | 23 | 146 | 594 | 100 | 31 | 8 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 1.7% | 2.59 | 3.64 | +2.7 |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 30 | 21 | 127 | 529 | 88 | 22 | 12 | 13.4% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 4.19 | 4.09 | +1.7 |
| 2021 | 29 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 25 | 5 | 60 | 257 | 70 | 13 | 10 | 24.0% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 4.53 | 3.80 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 30 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 44 | 2 | 70 | 290 | 73 | 23 | 6 | 24.2% | 8.0% | 2.1% | 2.96 | 3.22 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 31 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 45 | 3 | 84 | 349 | 81 | 18 | 13 | 22.2% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 4.07 | 3.87 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 32 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 63 | 2 | 72 | 311 | 78 | 23 | 6 | 25.1% | 7.4% | 1.8% | 3.98 | 2.88 | +1.8 |
| 2025 | 33 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 69 | 1 | 67 | 267 | 61 | 11 | 9 | 22.8% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 3.07 | 3.37 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 6 | 0 | 7 | 28 | 7 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | 5.40 | — | — |
| ROS | 34 | MLB | PHI | 54 | — | 54 | 227 | 51 | 14 | 6 | 22.4% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 3.77 | 3.93 | +0.6 |
| 2026 Total | 34 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 60 | 255 | 58 | 15 | 7 | 22.7% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 3.95 | 3.50 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | PHI | 57 | — | 57 | 240 | 53 | 15 | 7 | 22.0% | 6.1% | 3.0% | 3.92 | 4.05 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | PHI | 53 | — | 53 | 225 | 48 | 14 | 7 | 21.2% | 6.4% | 3.1% | 4.09 | 4.21 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 37 | MLB | PHI | 49 | — | 49 | 208 | 42 | 14 | 7 | 20.4% | 6.7% | 3.3% | 4.27 | 4.39 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 38 | MLB | PHI | 45 | — | 45 | 192 | 37 | 13 | 7 | 19.6% | 7.0% | 3.4% | 4.45 | 4.57 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 380 | 123 | 1019 | 4237 | 711 | 238 | 97 | 16.8% | 5.6% | 2.3% | 3.58 | 3.65 | +19.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 75 | 24 | 200 | 831 | 140 | 47 | 19 | 16.8% | 5.6% | 2.3% | 3.58 | 3.65 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tanner Banks (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.93 | 22.4% | 6.1% | 2.9% | — | 4.21 | 21.2% | 14.9% | 159 | +0.28 | — | — | — |
| Tony Watson L 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.57 | 17.7% | 4.8% | 4.3% | .276 | 3.54 | 19.8% | 13.1% | 75 | -1.03 | 2.22 | 405 | 71 |
| Neal Cotts L 2027 · 4.64 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.64 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 4.4% | .257 | 3.78 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 93 | -0.86 | 3.21 | 156 | 69 |
| Brian Duensing L 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.17 | 23.7% | 6.6% | 2.2% | .301 | 5.84 | 11.7% | -0.7% | 51 | +2.67 | 2.63 | 198 | 68 |
| Colt Hynes L 2024 · 3.79 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.79 | 14.1% | 4.6% | 2.4% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 152 | 65 |
| Craig Breslow L 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.04 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 4.6% | .279 | 4.48 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 94 | -0.56 | 4.28 | 159 | 64 |
| Tony Sipp L 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.84 | 23.6% | 8.5% | 4.8% | .269 | 2.55 | 24.9% | 15.9% | 60 | -2.29 | 2.19 | 195 | 64 |
| Vidal Nuño L 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.89 | 16.0% | 4.9% | 4.6% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 424 | 63 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.97 | 20.0% | 8.0% | 4.6% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 181 | 63 |
| Wei-Yin Chen L 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.68 | 20.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 549 | 62 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.03 | 17.1% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .376 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 280 | 62 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.45 | 18.5% | 4.9% | 2.3% | .283 | 4.23 | 25.7% | 18.0% | 79 | +0.78 | 3.45 | 512 | 62 |
| Phil Coke L 2026 · 3.04 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.04 | 18.0% | 6.7% | 1.1% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 101 | 62 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.78 | 14.8% | 7.1% | 1.9% | .315 | 3.99 | 13.3% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.21 | 3.51 | 138 | 59 |
| Jerry Blevins L 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.48 | 21.8% | 11.2% | 3.3% | .250 | 3.98 | 26.2% | 16.3% | 32 | -0.50 | 2.66 | 166 | 58 |
| Sean Doolittle L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.02 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 3.3% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.42 | 259 | 58 |
| Caleb Thielbar L 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.30 | 28.9% | 7.1% | 3.2% | .290 | 3.36 | 29.3% | 21.7% | 137 | +0.06 | 2.22 | 459 | 58 |
| Marlon Arias L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.86 | 19.8% | 11.2% | 3.7% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 154 | 57 |
| Manny Parra L 2027 · 3.33 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.33 | 18.4% | 10.3% | 0.9% | .351 | 2.43 | 17.3% | 11.0% | 27 | -0.90 | 2.43 | 114 | 57 |
| Orlando Lara L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.07 | 22.0% | 7.8% | 3.4% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 426 | 56 |
| Heriberto Ruelas L 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.75 | 15.0% | 8.9% | 1.4% | .310 | 3.42 | 17.2% | 10.5% | 49 | -0.33 | 2.97 | 117 | 56 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Arb-1
MLB Debut 2022
Service 3.535 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2028
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-1 | $1M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2027 | Arb-2 | $3M | +0.6 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2028 | Arb-3 | $4M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $5M | $7M | +$2M | ||