Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 14 | 86 | 351 | 43 | 9 | 3 | 64% | 3.9 | 8.4% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 1.2% | 2.71 | 3.44 | — |
| 2015 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 14 | 86 | 351 | 43 | 9 | 3 | 64% | 3.9 | 12.3% | 2.6% | 9.7% | 0.9% | 2.71 | 2.87 | — |
| 2016 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 159 | 658 | 116 | 31 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 13.3% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 1.8% | 3.50 | 3.65 | — |
| 2016 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 159 | 658 | 116 | 31 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.6% | 4.7% | 12.9% | 1.5% | 3.50 | 3.04 | — |
| 2017 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 25 | 141 | 603 | 113 | 37 | 10 | 96% | 5.4 | 14.7% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 2.3% | 4.28 | 3.99 | — |
| 2017 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 25 | 141 | 603 | 113 | 37 | 10 | 96% | 5.4 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 12.6% | 1.7% | 4.28 | 3.21 | — |
| 2018 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 146 | 594 | 100 | 31 | 8 | 100% | 6.3 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 1.7% | 2.59 | 3.68 | — |
| 2018 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 146 | 594 | 100 | 31 | 8 | 100% | 6.3 | 16.8% | 5.2% | 11.6% | 1.3% | 2.59 | 3.08 | — |
| 2019 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 21 | 127 | 529 | 88 | 22 | 12 | 70% | 4.2 | 13.4% | 4.5% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.19 | 4.10 | — |
| 2019 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 21 | 127 | 529 | 88 | 22 | 12 | 70% | 4.2 | 16.6% | 4.2% | 12.5% | 2.3% | 4.19 | 3.46 | — |
| 2021 | 29 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 25 | 5 | 60 | 257 | 70 | 13 | 10 | 20% | 2.4 | 24.0% | 5.3% | 18.7% | 3.1% | 4.53 | 3.45 | — |
| 2021 | 29 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 25 | 5 | 60 | 257 | 70 | 13 | 10 | 20% | 2.4 | 27.2% | 5.1% | 22.2% | 3.9% | 4.53 | 3.59 | — |
| 2022 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 2 | 70 | 290 | 73 | 23 | 6 | 5% | 1.6 | 24.2% | 8.0% | 16.2% | 1.9% | 2.96 | 3.10 | +1.4 |
| 2022 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 2 | 70 | 290 | 73 | 23 | 6 | 5% | 1.6 | 25.2% | 7.9% | 17.2% | 2.1% | 2.96 | 3.11 | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 3 | 84 | 349 | 81 | 18 | 13 | 7% | 1.9 | 22.2% | 5.2% | 17.0% | 3.5% | 4.07 | 3.80 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 3 | 84 | 349 | 81 | 18 | 13 | 7% | 1.9 | 23.2% | 5.2% | 18.1% | 3.7% | 4.07 | 3.83 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 32 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 63 | 2 | 72 | 311 | 78 | 23 | 6 | 3% | 1.1 | 25.1% | 7.4% | 17.7% | 1.9% | 3.98 | 2.94 | +1.6 |
| 2024 | 32 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 63 | 2 | 72 | 311 | 78 | 23 | 6 | 3% | 1.1 | 25.1% | 7.4% | 17.7% | 1.9% | 3.98 | 2.98 | +1.6 |
| 2025 | 33 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 69 | 1 | 67 | 267 | 61 | 11 | 9 | 1% | 1.0 | 22.8% | 4.1% | 18.7% | 3.3% | 3.07 | 3.48 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 33 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 69 | 1 | 67 | 267 | 61 | 11 | 9 | 1% | 1.0 | 22.8% | 4.1% | 18.7% | 3.4% | 3.07 | 3.52 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 32 | 1 | 33 | 168 | 38 | 15 | 7 | 3% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 8.2% | 13.7% | 4.8% | 7.02 | 4.92 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 34 | MLB | PHI | 25 | 0 | 26 | 111 | 25 | 7 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 6.6% | 15.7% | 3.3% | 3.80 | 3.86 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 34 | MLB | PHI | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 24 | 7 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 6.6% | 15.7% | 3.3% | 3.80 | 3.86 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 34 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 60 | 279 | 63 | 22 | 11 | — | — | 22.5% | 8.0% | 14.5% | 3.8% | 5.60 | 4.45 | +0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 34 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 55 | 234 | 63 | 22 | 11 | — | — | 26.9% | 9.5% | 17.3% | 4.6% | 6.04 | 4.55 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | PHI | 52 | 0 | 54 | 229 | 49 | 16 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 7.2% | 14.1% | 3.7% | 4.46 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | PHI | 46 | 0 | 48 | 203 | 41 | 16 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.3% | 7.8% | 12.5% | 4.1% | 4.77 | 4.98 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 37 | MLB | PHI | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 34 | 15 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.2% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 4.5% | 5.14 | 5.39 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | PHI | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 46 | 15 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 7.2% | 14.1% | 3.7% | 4.46 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | PHI | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 36 | 14 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 7.8% | 12.5% | 4.1% | 4.77 | 4.98 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 37 | MLB | PHI | 30 | 0 | 32 | 135 | 26 | 11 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.2% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 4.5% | 5.14 | 5.39 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 372 | 7 | 435 | 1837 | 404 | 127 | 62 | 2% | 1.2 | 22.0% | 6.9% | 15.1% | 3.4% | 4.21 | 3.97 | +7.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 171 | 3 | 200 | 846 | 186 | 58 | 29 | 2% | 1.2 | 22.0% | 6.9% | 15.1% | 3.4% | 4.21 | 3.97 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 406 | 124 | 1046 | 4377 | 741 | 250 | 103 | 31% | 2.6 | 16.9% | 5.7% | 11.2% | 2.4% | 3.68 | 3.69 | +20.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 78 | 24 | 200 | 837 | 142 | 48 | 20 | 31% | 2.6 | 16.9% | 5.7% | 11.2% | 2.4% | 3.68 | 3.69 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tanner Banks (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.95 | 22.5% | 6.0% | 2.9% | — | 4.96 | 20.4% | 12.6% | 144 | +1.01 | — | — | — |
| Cesár Ramos L 2025 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.17 | 16.7% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 225 | 63 |
| Craig Breslow L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.86 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 4.2% | .279 | 4.51 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 94 | -0.35 | 4.22 | 159 | 63 |
| Colt Hynes L 2024 · 3.52 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.52 | 14.1% | 4.6% | 1.9% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 152 | 63 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.97 | 17.1% | 6.9% | 2.6% | .376 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 280 | 62 |
| Vidal Nuño L 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.85 | 16.0% | 4.9% | 4.5% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 424 | 62 |
| Neal Cotts L 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.65 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 4.4% | .257 | 4.01 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 93 | -0.64 | 3.24 | 156 | 61 |
| Tony Watson L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.53 | 17.7% | 4.8% | 4.2% | .276 | 3.68 | 19.8% | 13.1% | 75 | -0.85 | 2.22 | 405 | 61 |
| Tony Sipp L 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.69 | 23.6% | 8.5% | 4.6% | .269 | 2.57 | 24.9% | 15.9% | 60 | -2.12 | 2.18 | 195 | 59 |
| Brian Duensing L 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.18 | 23.7% | 6.6% | 2.3% | .301 | 5.68 | 11.7% | -0.7% | 51 | +2.50 | 2.59 | 198 | 58 |
| Wei-Yin Chen L 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.87 | 20.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 549 | 57 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.67 | 20.0% | 8.0% | 4.1% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 181 | 57 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.47 | 18.5% | 4.9% | 2.4% | .283 | 4.33 | 25.7% | 18.0% | 79 | +0.86 | 3.47 | 512 | 56 |
| Luke Westphal L 2025 · 4.18 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.18 | 24.2% | 13.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 5.42 | 16.1% | -3.1% | 26 | +1.24 | 2.97 | 294 | 55 |
| Dana Eveland L 2025 · 4.91 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.91 | 14.7% | 4.7% | 4.5% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.42 | 129 | 54 |
| Rich Hill L 2027 · 3.25 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.25 | 26.8% | 10.9% | 1.9% | .239 | 3.22 | 29.0% | 21.2% | 379 | -0.03 | 2.10 | 1,030 | 54 |
| Jerry Blevins L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.43 | 21.8% | 11.2% | 3.2% | .250 | 4.09 | 26.2% | 16.3% | 32 | -0.34 | 2.72 | 166 | 54 |
| Sean Doolittle L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.04 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 3.3% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.39 | 259 | 53 |
| Manny Parra L 2027 · 3.34 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.34 | 18.4% | 10.3% | 0.9% | .351 | 2.43 | 17.3% | 11.0% | 27 | -0.91 | 2.43 | 114 | 52 |
| Phil Coke L 2026 · 3.04 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.04 | 18.0% | 6.7% | 1.1% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 101 | 52 |
| Jeff Francis L 2026 · 2.85 FIP | 34 | SW | 2.85 | 19.1% | 4.8% | 1.4% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 114 | 51 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 50 | 20.9% | 7.3% | 1.45 | 4.52 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Mike Mayers ('23) | 5 | 47 | 24.3% | 7.8% | 1.50 | 4.47 |
| Adam Morgan ('21) | 6 | 59 | 20.5% | 7.1% | 1.56 | 4.77 |
| Austin Voth ('24) | 6 | 58 | 22.2% | 8.2% | 1.50 | 4.63 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |