Tim Mayza — OGILVIE

Tim Mayza P Philadelphia Phillies

Age 34 LHP 6'3" / 215 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION64 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7785vR 93

ERA3.29

FIP3.48

K%21.9%

BB%6.2%

K-BB%15.7%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5555

CMD3535

K†4050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5094.5

Whiff%

p3923.7%

p6524.9%

xwOBA vs

p860.277

FB+2.4 (68%)

SI (56%)

SL-1.0 (30%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	23	A MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	26	1	56	236	62	26	0	4%	2.1	19.4%	13.0%	6.4%	0.0%	3.07	3.11	—
2015	23	A RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	26	1	56	236	62	26	0	4%	2.1	26.3%	11.0%	15.3%	0.0%	3.07	2.27	—
2016	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	64	274	65	30	1	0%	1.5	18.5%	12.3%	6.1%	0.5%	2.25	3.38	—
2016	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	64	274	65	30	1	0%	1.5	23.7%	10.9%	12.8%	0.4%	2.25	2.68	—
2017	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	59	0	70	306	85	24	8	0%	1.2	24.5%	8.4%	16.2%	2.7%	4.13	3.55	+0.8
2017	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	59	0	70	306	85	24	8	0%	1.2	27.8%	7.8%	19.9%	2.6%	4.13	3.19	+1.1
2018	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	0	61	261	76	20	5	0%	1.1	27.5%	7.9%	19.6%	1.9%	3.82	2.84	+1.3
2018	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	57	0	61	261	76	20	5	0%	1.1	29.1%	7.7%	21.5%	1.9%	3.82	2.66	+1.4
2019	27	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	68	0	51	227	55	25	8	0%	0.8	24.2%	11.0%	13.2%	3.5%	4.91	4.38	+0.1
2019	27	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	68	0	51	227	55	25	8	0%	0.8	24.2%	11.0%	13.2%	3.5%	4.91	4.44	+0.1
2021	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	62	0	54	214	57	12	6	0%	0.9	27.1%	5.7%	21.4%	2.4%	3.50	2.84	+1.1
2021	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	62	0	54	214	57	12	6	0%	0.9	26.6%	5.6%	21.0%	2.8%	3.50	3.10	+0.9
2022	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	65	1	50	199	45	11	7	2%	0.8	22.8%	5.2%	17.6%	3.6%	3.42	3.82	+0.4
2022	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	65	1	50	199	45	11	7	2%	0.8	22.6%	5.5%	17.1%	3.5%	3.42	3.78	+0.5
2023	31	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	69	0	53	215	53	12	2	0%	0.8	24.7%	5.6%	19.1%	0.9%	1.52	2.24	+1.5
2023	31	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	69	0	53	215	53	12	2	0%	0.8	24.7%	5.6%	19.1%	0.9%	1.52	2.24	+1.5
2023	31	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	69	0	53	215	53	12	2	0%	0.8	24.7%	5.6%	19.1%	0.9%	1.52	2.28	+1.5
2024	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	0	51	230	36	16	5	0%	0.9	14.4%	6.7%	7.7%	2.4%	5.65	4.05	+0.3
2024	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	0	51	230	36	16	5	0%	0.9	14.4%	6.7%	7.7%	2.4%	5.65	4.05	+0.3
2024	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	59	0	51	230	36	16	5	0%	0.9	15.7%	7.0%	8.7%	2.2%	5.65	3.90	+0.4
2025	33	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	1	21	93	21	5	2	5%	1.1	20.3%	6.8%	13.5%	2.5%	3.37	3.63	+0.2
2025	33	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	1	21	93	21	5	2	5%	1.1	20.3%	6.8%	13.5%	2.5%	3.37	3.63	+0.2
2025	33	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	1	21	93	21	5	2	5%	1.1	22.6%	5.4%	17.2%	2.2%	3.37	3.05	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			437	5	383	1597	382	104	41	1%	0.9	23.9%	6.5%	17.4%	2.6%	3.74	3.31	+5.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	34	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	55	5	64	253	63	13	6	9%	1.2	24.9%	5.1%	19.8%	2.2%	3.08	2.86	+1.3
YTD	34	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	55	5	64	253	63	13	6	9%	1.2	24.9%	5.1%	19.8%	2.2%	3.08	2.86	+1.3
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	34	MLB RAW	PHI	55	5	64	253	63	13	6	9%	1.2	24.9%	5.1%	19.8%	2.4%	3.08	2.95	+1.2
SO FAR	34	MLB RAW	PHI	55	5	64	253	63	13	6	9%	1.2	24.9%	5.1%	19.8%	2.4%	3.08	2.95	+1.2
ROS	34	MLB MLE	PHI	4	0	5	19	4	1	1	0%	1.1	21.9%	6.2%	15.7%	2.6%	3.29	3.48	+0.1
ROS	34	MLB CTX	PHI	5	0	5	21	5	1	1	0%	1.0	21.9%	6.2%	15.7%	2.6%	3.29	3.48	+0.1
2026 TOT	34	MLB MLE	PHI	—	—	69	272	67	14	7	—	—	24.7%	5.2%	19.5%	2.4%	3.09	2.90	+1.5
FULL	34	MLB A+C	PHI	—	—	69	291	67	14	7	—	—	23.1%	4.9%	18.2%	2.2%	3.09	2.99	+1.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	35	MLB MLE	PHI	46	0	48	205	41	14	6	0%	1.1	20.1%	6.8%	13.3%	2.9%	4.03	4.24	+0.2
2028	36	MLB MLE	PHI	41	0	43	181	35	13	6	0%	1.0	19.1%	7.4%	11.7%	3.3%	4.38	4.61	-0.0
2027	35	MLB CTX	PHI	46	0	48	203	41	14	6	0%	1.0	20.1%	6.8%	13.3%	2.9%	4.03	4.24	+0.2
2028	36	MLB CTX	PHI	41	0	43	182	35	13	6	0%	1.0	19.1%	7.4%	11.7%	3.3%	4.38	4.61	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		528	5	479	2002	462	132	53	1%	0.9	23.1%	6.6%	16.5%	2.7%	3.82	3.45	+6.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		221	2	200	837	193	55	22	1%	0.9	23.1%	6.6%	16.5%	2.7%	3.82	3.45	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		581	8	596	2508	570	205	50	1%	1.0	22.7%	8.2%	14.5%	2.0%	3.50	3.32	+5.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		195	3	200	842	191	69	17	1%	1.0	22.7%	8.2%	14.5%	2.0%	3.50	3.32	+2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tim Mayza (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.33	17.9%	7.0%	2.7%	—	4.41	19.6%	12.6%	91	+0.08	—	—	—
Oliver Pérez L 2016 · 3.36 FIP	34	SU	3.36	25.3%	9.3%	2.2%	.296	2.54	29.1%	23.7%	120	-0.82	1.58	219	80
Sean Doolittle L 2021 · 4.00 FIP	34	SU	4.00	23.8%	9.0%	3.2%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	1.39	259	80
Mike Dunn L 2019 · 5.02 FIP	34	SU	5.02	20.0%	8.0%	4.7%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.71	181	76
Tony Sipp L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	34	SU	4.92	23.6%	8.5%	5.0%	.269	2.59	24.9%	15.9%	60	-2.33	2.22	195	74
Brian Duensing L 2017 · 3.26 FIP	34	SU	3.26	23.7%	6.6%	2.4%	.301	5.80	11.7%	-0.7%	51	+2.54	2.57	198	72
Neal Cotts L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	35	SU	4.66	21.6%	7.4%	4.4%	.257	3.77	21.9%	14.5%	93	-0.89	3.21	156	72
Jerry Blevins L 2018 · 4.43 FIP	34	SU	4.43	21.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.250	4.09	26.2%	16.3%	32	-0.34	2.71	166	70
Ross Detwiler L 2020 · 3.49 FIP	34	SU	3.49	18.5%	4.9%	2.4%	.283	4.16	25.7%	18.0%	79	+0.67	3.49	512	68
Ryan Buchter L 2021 · 5.24 FIP	34	SU	5.24	22.9%	13.2%	4.4%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	2.37	296	67
Craig Breslow L 2015 · 4.94 FIP	34	SU	4.94	16.4%	6.4%	4.4%	.279	4.42	16.2%	6.5%	94	-0.52	4.22	159	67
Boone Logan L 2018 · 5.29 FIP	33	SU	5.29	24.1%	12.1%	4.9%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	2.58	113	66
Tony Watson L 2019 · 4.52 FIP	34	SU	4.52	17.7%	4.8%	4.2%	.276	3.67	19.8%	13.1%	75	-0.85	2.21	405	66
Heriberto Ruelas L 2016 · 3.75 FIP	34	SU	3.75	15.0%	8.9%	1.4%	.310	3.42	17.2%	10.5%	49	-0.33	2.95	117	65
Manny Parra L 2018 · 3.33 FIP	35	SU	3.33	18.4%	10.3%	0.9%	.351	2.43	17.3%	11.0%	27	-0.90	2.43	114	64
Caleb Thielbar L 2021 · 3.20 FIP	34	SU	3.20	28.9%	7.1%	3.0%	.290	3.31	29.3%	21.7%	137	+0.11	2.22	505	63
Alejandro Soto L 2019 · 4.03 FIP	33	SW	4.03	17.1%	6.9%	2.7%	.376	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	280	62
Dana Eveland L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	33	SW	4.67	14.7%	4.7%	4.0%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	2.42	129	60
Colt Hynes L 2017 · 3.75 FIP	32	SW	3.75	14.1%	4.6%	2.3%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	152	60
Brandon Mann L 2018 · 3.59 FIP	34	SU	3.59	17.8%	11.4%	1.0%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	190	59
Dan Runzler L 2019 · 4.84 FIP	34	SU	4.84	16.0%	13.0%	2.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	127	59

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	48	19.0%	7.0%	1.14	4.17
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45