Roenis Elías — OGILVIE

Roenis Elías P Iowa Cubs

Age 37 LHP 6'1" / 205 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 104113vR 121

ERA4.44

FIP4.48

K%22.1%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%12.9%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4193.9

Whiff%

p5826.5%

p4721.8%

xwOBA vs

p250.341

CH+0.7

FB-0.5

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	32	177	771	144	61	24	94%	5.2	17.9%	8.0%	9.9%	3.1%	5.25	4.32	+1.2
2015	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	32	177	771	144	61	24	94%	5.2	18.7%	7.9%	10.8%	3.1%	5.25	4.27	+1.3
2016	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	20	133	574	116	61	12	83%	5.5	18.7%	11.2%	7.4%	2.1%	4.14	4.09	+1.3
2016	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	20	133	574	116	61	12	83%	5.5	20.2%	10.6%	9.6%	2.1%	4.14	3.91	+1.6
2017	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	10	9	41	194	28	13	11	90%	4.1	14.1%	6.1%	8.0%	5.7%	7.24	5.83	-0.4
2017	28	MIX RAW	4 levels	10	9	41	194	28	13	11	90%	4.1	14.4%	6.7%	7.7%	5.7%	7.24	6.17	-0.6
2018	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	11	92	389	74	32	3	30%	2.5	17.8%	8.4%	9.3%	0.9%	3.23	3.15	+1.6
2018	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	11	92	389	74	32	3	30%	2.5	19.0%	8.2%	10.8%	0.8%	3.23	2.96	+1.8
2019	30	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	48	0	50	216	47	17	10	0%	1.0	21.8%	7.9%	13.9%	4.6%	3.96	4.80	-0.1
2019	30	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	48	0	50	216	47	17	10	0%	1.0	21.8%	7.9%	13.9%	4.6%	3.96	4.84	-0.2
2022	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	9	73	311	61	22	9	20%	1.7	17.4%	7.2%	10.2%	2.8%	4.95	4.06	+0.4
2022	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	9	73	311	61	22	9	20%	1.7	19.6%	7.1%	12.5%	2.9%	4.95	3.94	+0.5
2023	34	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	4	4	21	86	18	5	6	100%	5.3	17.4%	5.2%	12.1%	7.9%	5.48	6.66	—
2023	34	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	4	4	21	86	18	5	6	100%	5.3	17.4%	5.2%	12.1%	7.9%	5.48	6.66	—
2023	34	AAA RAW	Iowa Cubs	4	4	21	86	18	5	6	100%	5.3	20.9%	5.8%	15.1%	7.0%	5.48	5.77	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			104	25	232	992	188	83	29	24%	2.2	19.0%	8.4%	10.6%	2.9%	4.03	4.18	+1.0
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	37	MLB	CHC	4	0	4	17	4	2	1	0%	1.0	22.1%	9.2%	12.9%	3.1%	4.44	4.48	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	38	MLB MLE	CHC	38	0	40	169	35	17	6	0%	1.1	20.9%	9.9%	11.1%	3.6%	4.72	4.91	-0.2
2027	38	MLB CTX	CHC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.9%	9.9%	11.1%	3.6%	4.72	4.91	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		104	25	232	992	188	83	29	24%	2.2	19.0%	8.4%	10.6%	2.9%	4.03	4.16	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		90	22	200	855	162	72	25	24%	2.2	19.0%	8.4%	10.6%	2.9%	4.03	4.16	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		201	85	586	2541	458	215	76	42%	2.9	18.0%	8.5%	9.6%	3.0%	4.68	4.29	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		69	29	200	867	156	73	26	42%	2.9	18.0%	8.5%	9.6%	3.0%	4.68	4.29	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Roenis Elías (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.48	22.1%	9.2%	3.1%	—	4.91	20.9%	11.1%	40	+0.43	—	—	—
Wandy Rodriguez L 2015 · 3.83 FIP	36	SP-	3.83	19.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	101	60
Scott Kazmir L 2021 · 4.58 FIP	37	SP	4.58	19.2%	8.8%	3.6%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	395	56
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	53
Heriberto Ruelas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	35	SU	3.42	17.2%	6.7%	1.7%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	117	52
Wilfredo Ledezma L 2017 · 3.35 FIP	36	SU	3.35	26.7%	8.3%	2.7%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	2.58	109	49
Jonathan Sánchez L 2019 · 4.73 FIP	36	SP	4.73	18.1%	8.3%	3.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	109	44
Jorge De La Rosa L 2018 · 4.07 FIP	37	SU	4.07	19.3%	9.5%	2.6%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.86	405	42
Craig Breslow L 2018 · 5.13 FIP	37	SU	5.13	17.8%	15.1%	2.9%	.400	—	—	—	—	—	4.22	159	42
Jorge Castillo L 2019 · 4.91 FIP	37	SP	4.91	19.6%	8.1%	4.5%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	408	42
Mauricio Lara L 2016 · 3.68 FIP	37	SP-	3.68	12.1%	7.6%	1.1%	.294	4.34	12.2%	5.6%	219	+0.66	3.62	444	40
Francisley Bueno L 2017 · 4.44 FIP	36	SP	4.44	11.7%	8.4%	2.3%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	138	39
Tsuyoshi Wada L 2015 · 3.66 FIP	34	SP	3.66	16.8%	7.1%	2.0%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	119	37
Chris Narveson L 2017 · 4.59 FIP	35	SP	4.59	12.2%	10.4%	2.2%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.59	249	36
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	186	34
Eric Stults L 2015 · 4.27 FIP	35	SP	4.27	14.5%	5.9%	3.0%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	138	32
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	31
Salvador Valdez R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	36	SW	4.30	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	326	31
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	4.15	145	30
Ryan Vogelsong R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	38	SP-	4.45	18.1%	9.4%	3.1%	.295	4.79	16.7%	6.3%	82	+0.34	4.45	217	29
Jake Peavy R 2016 · 4.35 FIP	35	SP-	4.35	19.6%	6.7%	3.7%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	262	29

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	43	21.5%	9.5%	1.28	4.57
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86