Roenis Elías
P
Iowa Cubs
Age 37
LHP
6'1" / 205 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 50 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 105114vR 123
ERA4.45
FIP4.49
K%22.1%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%12.9%
ROS IP50
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4193.9
Whiff%
p5826.5%
K%
p4721.8%
xwOBA vs
p250.341
CH+0.7
FB-0.5
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 32 | 177 | 771 | 144 | 61 | 24 | 94% | 5.2 | 17.9% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 5.25 | 4.29 | +2.3 |
| 2015 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 32 | 177 | 771 | 144 | 61 | 24 | 94% | 5.2 | 18.7% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 5.25 | 4.27 | +2.3 |
| 2016 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 20 | 133 | 574 | 116 | 61 | 12 | 83% | 5.5 | 18.7% | 11.2% | 7.4% | 2.1% | 4.14 | 4.09 | +2.0 |
| 2016 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 20 | 133 | 574 | 116 | 61 | 12 | 83% | 5.5 | 20.2% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 2.1% | 4.14 | 3.91 | +2.3 |
| 2017 | 28 | MIX | 4 levels | 10 | 9 | 41 | 194 | 28 | 13 | 11 | 90% | 4.1 | 14.1% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 7.24 | 5.55 | -0.5 |
| 2017 | 28 | MIX | 4 levels | 10 | 9 | 41 | 194 | 28 | 13 | 11 | 90% | 4.1 | 14.4% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 7.24 | 6.17 | -0.8 |
| 2018 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 11 | 92 | 389 | 74 | 32 | 3 | 30% | 2.5 | 17.8% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 0.9% | 3.23 | 3.19 | +2.2 |
| 2018 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 11 | 92 | 389 | 74 | 32 | 3 | 30% | 2.5 | 19.0% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 0.8% | 3.23 | 2.96 | +2.4 |
| 2019 | 30 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 48 | 0 | 50 | 216 | 47 | 17 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 7.9% | 13.9% | 4.6% | 3.96 | 4.80 | -0.1 |
| 2019 | 30 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 48 | 0 | 50 | 216 | 47 | 17 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 7.9% | 13.9% | 4.6% | 3.96 | 4.84 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 9 | 73 | 311 | 61 | 22 | 9 | 20% | 1.7 | 17.4% | 7.2% | 10.2% | 2.5% | 4.95 | 3.89 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 9 | 73 | 311 | 61 | 22 | 9 | 20% | 1.7 | 19.6% | 7.1% | 12.5% | 2.9% | 4.95 | 3.94 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 34 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 4 | 4 | 21 | 86 | 18 | 5 | 6 | 100% | 5.3 | 18.4% | 6.1% | 12.3% | 8.2% | 5.48 | 6.84 | — |
| 2023 | 34 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 4 | 4 | 21 | 86 | 18 | 5 | 6 | 100% | 5.3 | 20.9% | 5.8% | 15.1% | 7.0% | 5.48 | 5.77 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 37 | MLB | CHC | 44 | 0 | 46 | 196 | 43 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 12.9% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 38 | MLB | CHC | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 35 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 3.6% | 4.73 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 38 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.0% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 3.6% | 4.73 | 4.92 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 104 | 25 | 232 | 992 | 188 | 83 | 29 | 24% | 2.2 | 19.0% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 4.03 | 4.16 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 90 | 22 | 200 | 855 | 162 | 72 | 25 | 24% | 2.2 | 19.0% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 4.03 | 4.16 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 201 | 85 | 586 | 2541 | 459 | 216 | 74 | 42% | 2.9 | 18.1% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 4.68 | 4.25 | +7.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 69 | 29 | 200 | 867 | 157 | 74 | 25 | 42% | 2.9 | 18.1% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 4.68 | 4.25 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Roenis Elías (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.49 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 3.1% | — | 4.92 | 21.0% | 11.1% | 40 | +0.43 | — | — | — |
| Wandy Rodriguez L 2025 · 3.84 FIP | 36 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 101 | 60 |
| Scott Kazmir L 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.59 | 19.2% | 8.8% | 3.6% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 395 | 56 |
| Jorge De La Rosa L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.99 | 19.3% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 405 | 54 |
| Juan Antonio Pena L 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 37 | SP- | 4.15 | 13.6% | 9.9% | 1.7% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 149 | 53 |
| Heriberto Ruelas L 2024 · 3.56 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.56 | 17.2% | 6.7% | 1.9% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 117 | 52 |
| Wilfredo Ledezma L 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.47 | 26.7% | 8.3% | 2.9% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 109 | 49 |
| Jonathan Sánchez L 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.65 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.65 | 109 | 44 |
| Craig Breslow L 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 37 | SU | 5.02 | 17.8% | 15.1% | 2.7% | .400 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.22 | 159 | 43 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 37 | SP | 5.23 | 19.6% | 8.1% | 5.0% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 408 | 41 |
| Mauricio Lara L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 37 | SP- | 3.67 | 12.1% | 7.6% | 1.1% | .294 | 4.24 | 12.2% | 5.6% | 219 | +0.57 | 3.57 | 444 | 40 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.60 | 11.7% | 8.4% | 2.6% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 138 | 39 |
| Tsuyoshi Wada L 2023 · 3.68 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.68 | 16.8% | 7.1% | 2.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 119 | 37 |
| Chris Narveson L 2024 · 4.40 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.40 | 12.2% | 10.4% | 1.8% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 249 | 36 |
| Jean Machi R 2024 · 3.92 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.92 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 186 | 34 |
| J.A. Happ L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.34 | 21.4% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .221 | 4.94 | 18.2% | 11.0% | 152 | +0.60 | 3.28 | 1,053 | 33 |
| Eric Stults L 2024 · 4.25 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.25 | 14.5% | 5.9% | 2.9% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 138 | 32 |
| Logan Duran R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 37 | SP- | 3.58 | 15.5% | 8.9% | 1.2% | .427 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 187 | 31 |
| Salvador Valdez R 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.24 | 17.1% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .405 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 326 | 30 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2025 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 30 |
| Oscar Rivera L 2025 · 5.36 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.36 | 9.8% | 7.8% | 3.8% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 237 | 30 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 43 | 21.6% | 9.5% | 1.29 | 4.58 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |