Yusei Kikuchi

P Los Angeles Angels

Age 36 LHP 6'0" / 210 lbs MLB Svc 8.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 0.9 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANExtFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	33	MLBHOU	32	32	176	4.05	3.36	28.0%	6.0%	4.4
2025	34	MLBLAA	33	33	178	3.99	4.09	22.5%	9.2%	2.8
2026	35	MIX3 levels	18	18	80	6.61	4.16	24.3%	9.9%	1.2	K 22.0% · BB 9.5% · FIP 3.68
2027PROJ	36	MLBLAA	10	10	63	4.21	4.20	23.5%	8.8%	0.9
2028PROJ	37	MLBLAA	11	11	66	4.32	4.37	24.4%	8.7%	0.8
2029PROJ	38	MLBLAA	8	8	45	4.61	4.80	23.3%	9.4%	0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 8.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service8.000First FA2028Options2

2027Ext$21M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo64

K%49

xwOBA vs32

Form3.41 ERA (proj 4.21) · K 21.4% (proj 23.5%) · BB 10.7% (proj 8.8%) ▼ last 60d · 32 IP through Oct 27

CompsMarlon Arias (age 34) · Mauricio Lara (age 36) · Tsuyoshi Wada (age 34)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 99107vR 115

ERA4.21

FIP4.20

K%23.5%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%14.7%

Proj IP63

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit option yr-$39M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6495.5

Whiff%

p3723.5%

p4922.0%

xwOBA vs

p320.333

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 8.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$21M	+0.9	$4M	-$18M
Totals		$21M		$4M	-$18M

Options · projected decision
2028	PLAYER OPT	$13.0M / $0.0M buyout	EXERCISE
2029	PLAYER OPT	$21.2M / $0.0M buyout	EXERCISE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	28	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	32	32	162	721	116	50	36	100%	5.1	16.1%	6.9%	9.2%	5.1%	5.46	5.43	-0.1
2019	28	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	32	32	162	721	116	50	36	100%	5.1	16.1%	6.9%	9.2%	5.0%	5.46	5.49	-0.2
2020	29	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	9	9	47	194	47	20	3	100%	5.2	24.2%	10.3%	13.9%	1.6%	5.17	3.23	+1.3
2020	29	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	9	9	47	194	47	20	3	100%	5.2	24.2%	10.3%	13.9%	1.5%	5.17	3.21	+1.3
2021	30	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	29	29	157	666	163	62	27	100%	5.4	24.5%	9.3%	15.2%	4.2%	4.41	4.49	+1.7
2021	30	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	29	29	157	666	163	62	27	100%	5.4	24.5%	9.3%	15.2%	4.1%	4.41	4.44	+1.8
2022	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	21	106	472	128	61	23	64%	3.2	27.3%	12.8%	14.5%	5.1%	4.94	5.19	+0.3
2022	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	21	106	472	128	61	23	64%	3.2	27.1%	12.9%	14.2%	4.9%	4.94	5.24	+0.2
2023	32	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	32	32	168	700	181	48	27	100%	5.2	25.9%	6.9%	19.0%	3.9%	3.86	3.90	+3.0
2023	32	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	32	32	168	700	181	48	27	100%	5.2	25.9%	6.9%	19.0%	3.9%	3.86	3.89	+3.0
2024	33	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	32	32	176	736	206	44	25	100%	5.5	28.0%	6.0%	22.0%	3.5%	4.05	3.41	+4.3
2024	33	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	32	32	176	736	206	44	25	100%	5.5	28.0%	6.0%	22.0%	3.5%	4.05	3.41	+4.3
2024	33	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	32	32	176	736	206	44	25	100%	5.5	28.0%	6.0%	22.0%	3.4%	4.05	3.36	+4.4
2025	34	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	33	33	178	772	174	71	24	100%	5.4	22.5%	9.2%	13.3%	3.0%	3.99	4.03	+2.9
2025	34	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	33	33	178	772	174	71	24	100%	5.4	22.5%	9.2%	13.3%	3.0%	3.99	4.03	+2.9
2025	34	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	33	33	178	772	174	71	24	100%	5.4	22.5%	9.2%	13.3%	3.1%	3.99	4.09	+2.8
2026	35	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	18	80	375	91	37	12	100%	4.5	22.0%	9.5%	12.5%	2.3%	6.61	3.68	+1.7
2026	35	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	18	80	375	91	37	12	100%	4.5	22.0%	9.5%	12.5%	2.3%	6.61	3.68	+1.7
2026	35	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	18	80	375	91	37	12	100%	4.5	24.3%	9.9%	14.4%	3.2%	6.61	4.16	+1.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			213	201	1056	4548	1078	382	172	94%	5.0	23.7%	8.4%	15.3%	3.8%	4.49	4.26	+14.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	36	MLB	LAA	10	10	63	266	63	24	8	100%	6.3	23.5%	8.8%	14.7%	2.9%	4.21	4.20	+0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	37	MLB MLE	LAA	11	11	66	280	68	24	9	100%	6.0	24.4%	8.7%	15.7%	3.3%	4.28	4.33	+0.8
2029	38	MLB MLE	LAA	7	7	45	189	44	18	7	100%	6.4	23.3%	9.4%	13.9%	3.8%	4.57	4.76	+0.3
2028	37	MLB CTX	LAA	11	11	66	279	68	24	9	100%	6.0	24.4%	8.7%	15.7%	3.4%	4.32	4.37	+0.8
2029	38	MLB CTX	LAA	8	8	45	190	44	18	7	100%	5.6	23.3%	9.4%	13.9%	3.8%	4.61	4.80	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		232	220	1167	5017	1190	424	189	95%	5.0	23.7%	8.5%	15.3%	3.8%	4.49	4.23	+16.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		40	38	200	860	204	73	32	95%	5.0	23.7%	8.5%	15.3%	3.8%	4.49	4.23	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		218	206	1073	4636	1098	391	176	94%	4.9	23.7%	8.4%	15.3%	3.8%	4.60	4.25	+15.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	38	200	864	205	73	33	94%	4.9	23.7%	8.4%	15.3%	3.8%	4.60	4.25	+2.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 8 IPFIP 6.48 → 8.95 (+2.47)K% 32.5% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.50%	—	×0.740	24.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.00%	—	×1.180	5.90%
HR / BF /BF	10.00%	÷1.000	×1.300	13.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 6.48 → 8.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAASalt Lake Bees · 5 IPFIP 4.37 → 4.73 (+0.36)K% 36.7% → 31.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.67%	—	×0.860	31.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.00%	—	×0.900	18.00%
HR / BF /BF	3.33%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.67%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.37 → 4.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yusei Kikuchi (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.50	24.0%	15.0%	111	+0.30	—	—	—
Marlon Arias L 2019 · 4.83 FIP	34	SP	4.83	19.8%	11.2%	3.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	154	45
Mauricio Lara L 2015 · 3.62 FIP	36	SP	3.62	13.9%	6.9%	1.5%	.310	3.69	12.1%	5.1%	220	+0.07	3.62	444	42
Tsuyoshi Wada L 2015 · 3.66 FIP	34	SP	3.66	16.8%	7.1%	2.0%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	188	41
Francisley Bueno L 2017 · 4.44 FIP	36	SP	4.44	11.7%	8.4%	2.3%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	2.43	188	41
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	39
Jorge Castillo L 2017 · 4.97 FIP	35	SP	4.97	11.2%	6.7%	3.6%	.337	4.91	19.6%	11.5%	119	-0.06	4.50	408	35
Kenshin Kawakami R 2010 · 4.06 FIP	35	SP	4.06	15.1%	5.6%	2.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	244	27
Jose Contreras R 2008 · 4.08 FIP	36	SP	4.08	13.4%	6.7%	2.3%	.291	3.52	20.1%	12.1%	202	-0.56	2.43	1,279	24
Jose Oyervides R 2017 · 5.38 FIP	35	SP	5.38	18.0%	6.3%	5.5%	.254	5.66	16.3%	5.1%	115	+0.28	3.01	407	20
Jarrett Grube R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	35	SP	4.41	15.8%	8.1%	3.0%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	393	19
Hiroki Kuroda R 2011 · 3.64 FIP	36	SP	3.64	19.2%	5.1%	2.8%	.282	3.50	18.2%	13.3%	620	-0.14	2.96	1,319	19
Jorge Martinez R 2019 · 3.71 FIP	34	SP	3.71	16.3%	5.7%	2.3%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	214	18
Walter Silva R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	38	SP	4.15	14.8%	7.4%	2.5%	.311	3.91	10.4%	3.7%	209	-0.24	3.67	453	18
Jesse Estrada R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	35	SP-	4.34	14.4%	6.6%	2.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	257	17
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	17
Frankie De La Cruz R 2019 · 4.38 FIP	35	SP-	4.38	16.2%	8.0%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	262	17
Yoanner Negrin R 2019 · 3.87 FIP	35	SP	3.87	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.15	485	16
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	36	SP-	4.20	15.8%	5.6%	3.1%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	567	16
Jon Leicester R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	36	SP	3.76	12.3%	5.9%	1.7%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	15
Francisco Rodriguez R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	36	SP	5.18	10.7%	9.3%	3.3%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	334	13

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.1	112	23.7%	8.5%	1.44	4.47
Drew Smyly ('24)	5.7	104	23.1%	7.7%	1.49	4.20
Mark Leiter ('90-'01, 5 WAR*)	5.9	118	20.7%*	7.8%*	1.36*	4.61*
Joe Price ('80-'90, 7 WAR*)	4.5	82	23.3%*	8.8%*	1.49*	4.15*
Bob Johnson ('69-'77, 6 WAR*)	3.5	115	23.4%*	8.9%*	1.49*	4.12*
Bud Norris ('18)	6.1	122	21.7%	9.1%	1.15	4.45
Daniel Norris ('23)	2.9	73	21.5%	8.9%	1.39	4.73