Yusei Kikuchi
P
Los Angeles Angels
Age 35
LHP
6'0" / 210 lbs
MLB
Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2027
peak 1.5 · 2026
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 ROS PROJECTION31 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8897vR 106
ERA3.74
FIP3.80
K%24.1%
BB%8.5%
K-BB%15.6%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 96 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit option yr
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6295.4
Whiff%
p5425.9%
K%
p5523.2%
xwOBA vs
p260.340
SL (24%)
CU (9%)
CT-2.0 (12%)
FB-5.0 (34%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 28 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 32 | 32 | 162 | 721 | 116 | 50 | 36 | 100% | 5.1 | 16.1% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 5.3% | 5.46 | 5.50 | -0.2 |
| 2019 | 28 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 32 | 32 | 162 | 721 | 116 | 50 | 36 | 100% | 5.1 | 16.1% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 5.0% | 5.46 | 5.49 | -0.2 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 9 | 9 | 47 | 194 | 47 | 20 | 3 | 100% | 5.2 | 24.2% | 10.3% | 13.9% | 1.6% | 5.17 | 3.25 | +0.7 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 9 | 9 | 47 | 194 | 47 | 20 | 3 | 100% | 5.2 | 24.2% | 10.3% | 13.9% | 1.5% | 5.17 | 3.21 | +0.7 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 29 | 29 | 157 | 666 | 163 | 62 | 27 | 100% | 5.4 | 24.5% | 9.3% | 15.2% | 4.3% | 4.41 | 4.55 | +1.6 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 29 | 29 | 157 | 666 | 163 | 62 | 27 | 100% | 5.4 | 24.5% | 9.3% | 15.2% | 4.1% | 4.41 | 4.44 | +1.8 |
| 2022 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 21 | 106 | 472 | 128 | 61 | 23 | 64% | 3.2 | 27.3% | 12.8% | 14.5% | 5.1% | 4.94 | 5.19 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 21 | 106 | 472 | 128 | 61 | 23 | 64% | 3.2 | 27.1% | 12.9% | 14.2% | 4.9% | 4.94 | 5.24 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 32 | 32 | 168 | 700 | 181 | 48 | 27 | 100% | 5.2 | 25.9% | 6.9% | 19.0% | 3.9% | 3.86 | 3.90 | +2.9 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 32 | 32 | 168 | 700 | 181 | 48 | 27 | 100% | 5.2 | 25.9% | 6.9% | 19.0% | 3.9% | 3.86 | 3.89 | +3.0 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | Houston Astros | 32 | 32 | 176 | 736 | 206 | 44 | 25 | 100% | 5.5 | 28.0% | 6.0% | 22.0% | 3.2% | 4.05 | 3.25 | +4.4 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | Houston Astros | 32 | 32 | 176 | 736 | 206 | 44 | 25 | 100% | 5.5 | 28.0% | 6.0% | 22.0% | 3.4% | 4.05 | 3.36 | +4.2 |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 33 | 33 | 178 | 772 | 174 | 71 | 24 | 100% | 5.4 | 22.5% | 9.2% | 13.3% | 3.2% | 3.99 | 4.13 | +2.6 |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 33 | 33 | 178 | 772 | 174 | 71 | 24 | 100% | 5.4 | 22.5% | 9.2% | 13.3% | 3.1% | 3.99 | 4.09 | +2.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 7 | 7 | 31 | 142 | 33 | 14 | 3 | 100% | 4.4 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 13.4% | 2.1% | 5.81 | 3.55 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | LAA | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 66 | 23 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.1% | 8.5% | 15.6% | 3.0% | 3.74 | 3.80 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | LAA | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 66 | 23 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.1% | 8.5% | 15.6% | 3.0% | 3.71 | 3.77 | +0.7 |
| 2026 TOT | 35 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 96 | 416 | 99 | 37 | 11 | — | — | 23.8% | 9.0% | 14.8% | 2.7% | 4.41 | 3.72 | +1.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 35 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 96 | 404 | 99 | 37 | 11 | — | — | 24.5% | 9.2% | 15.3% | 2.7% | 4.39 | 3.71 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | LAA | 23 | 23 | 136 | 573 | 133 | 53 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 14.1% | 3.4% | 4.36 | 4.53 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | LAA | 20 | 20 | 118 | 500 | 111 | 49 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.1% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 3.8% | 4.70 | 4.93 | +0.7 |
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | LAA | 23 | 23 | 136 | 574 | 133 | 53 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 14.1% | 3.3% | 4.33 | 4.50 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | LAA | 20 | 20 | 118 | 498 | 110 | 49 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.1% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 3.7% | 4.66 | 4.89 | +0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 263 | 251 | 1338 | 5732 | 1354 | 492 | 214 | 95% | 5.1 | 23.6% | 8.6% | 15.0% | 3.7% | 4.46 | 4.24 | +18.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 38 | 200 | 857 | 202 | 74 | 32 | 95% | 5.1 | 23.6% | 8.6% | 15.0% | 3.7% | 4.46 | 4.24 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 207 | 195 | 1024 | 4403 | 1049 | 369 | 172 | 94% | 4.9 | 23.8% | 8.4% | 15.4% | 3.9% | 4.48 | 4.29 | +13.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 40 | 38 | 200 | 860 | 205 | 72 | 34 | 94% | 4.9 | 23.8% | 8.4% | 15.4% | 3.9% | 4.48 | 4.29 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Yusei Kikuchi (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.20 | 24.7% | 8.1% | 3.3% | — | 4.72 | 22.7% | 13.2% | 254 | +0.52 | — | — | — |
| Daniel Rodriguez L 2025 · 4.74 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.74 | 20.8% | 7.8% | 4.4% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 391 | 37 |
| Orlando Lara L 2025 · 4.05 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.05 | 22.0% | 7.8% | 3.3% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 426 | 37 |
| J.A. Happ L 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 35 | SP | 3.64 | 26.3% | 7.0% | 3.4% | .266 | 4.80 | 19.7% | 12.5% | 363 | +1.16 | 3.28 | 1,053 | 37 |
| Jon Lester L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 35 | SP | 3.96 | 21.6% | 6.8% | 3.3% | .344 | 5.00 | 14.9% | 7.4% | 202 | +1.04 | 2.74 | 1,144 | 36 |
| Jorge De La Rosa L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.34 | 17.3% | 10.1% | 2.6% | .315 | 4.01 | 19.9% | 11.2% | 107 | -0.33 | 3.68 | 405 | 36 |
| Cole Hamels L 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 35 | SP | 3.75 | 23.2% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.22 | 893 | 36 |
| Jonathan Sánchez L 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.65 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.65 | 109 | 35 |
| CC Sabathia L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.30 | 18.9% | 6.5% | 3.6% | .311 | 3.96 | 20.1% | 12.1% | 481 | -0.34 | 3.75 | 756 | 35 |
| C.J. Wilson L 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.77 | 19.9% | 8.0% | 2.4% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 132 | 35 |
| Randy Wolf L 2029 · 3.43 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.43 | 16.6% | 7.7% | 1.4% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 174 | 32 |
| Tsuyoshi Wada L 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.68 | 16.8% | 7.1% | 2.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 119 | 31 |
| Mauricio Lara L 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 36 | SP | 3.57 | 13.9% | 6.9% | 1.4% | .310 | 3.70 | 12.1% | 5.1% | 220 | +0.13 | 3.57 | 444 | 30 |
| Barry Zito L 2028 · 4.80 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.80 | 13.6% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 138 | 30 |
| Eric Stults L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.25 | 14.5% | 5.9% | 2.9% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 138 | 30 |
| Wandy Rodriguez L 2027 · 3.84 FIP | 36 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 101 | 28 |
| Juan Antonio Pena L 2028 · 4.15 FIP | 37 | SP- | 4.15 | 13.6% | 9.9% | 1.7% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 149 | 26 |
| Marlon Arias L 2025 · 5.09 FIP | 34 | SP | 5.09 | 19.8% | 11.2% | 4.1% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 154 | 26 |
| Andrew Albers L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.45 | 16.9% | 3.7% | 4.2% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 508 | 25 |
| Kwang Hyun Kim L 2024 · 4.11 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.11 | 17.7% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 146 | 24 |
| Arturo Lopez L 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.24 | 10.3% | 5.4% | 2.4% | .342 | 5.22 | 12.2% | 5.4% | 117 | +0.98 | 4.24 | 445 | 24 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 119 | 23.3% | 9.1% | 1.35 | 4.41 |
| Nate Karns ('17) | 3 | 96 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 1.22 | 4.24 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Triston McKenzie ('24) | 4 | 105 | 26.0% | 9.4% | 1.52 | 3.94 |
| Kyle Wright ('23) | 3 | 83 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 1.12 | 3.97 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |
| Tyler Skaggs ('19) | 4 | 85 | 22.9% | 8.2% | 1.09 | 4.24 |