Yusei Kikuchi — OGILVIE

Yusei Kikuchi P Los Angeles Angels

Age 35 LHP 6'0" / 210 lbs MLB Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 2.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION66 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 98106vR 114

ERA3.89

FIP3.95

K%23.8%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%15.0%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 79 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit option yr-$55M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5555

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6795.7

Whiff%

p5425.9%

p5422.9%

xwOBA vs

p250.341

SL (24%)

CU (10%)

CT-2.0 (8%)

FB-5.0 (40%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 7.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2027

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	-$1M
2027	Ext	$21M	+0.4	$1M	-$18M
Totals		$23M		$2M	-$19M

Options · projected decision
2028	PLAYER OPT	$13.0M / $0.0M buyout	EXERCISE
2029	PLAYER OPT	$21.2M / $0.0M buyout	EXERCISE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	28	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	32	32	162	721	116	50	36	100%	5.1	16.1%	6.9%	9.2%	5.1%	5.46	5.43	-1.0
2019	28	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	32	32	162	721	116	50	36	100%	5.1	16.1%	6.9%	9.2%	5.0%	5.46	5.49	-1.1
2020	29	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	9	9	47	194	47	20	3	100%	5.2	24.2%	10.3%	13.9%	1.6%	5.17	3.23	+1.0
2020	29	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	9	9	47	194	47	20	3	100%	5.2	24.2%	10.3%	13.9%	1.5%	5.17	3.21	+1.0
2021	30	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	29	29	157	666	163	62	27	100%	5.4	24.5%	9.3%	15.2%	4.2%	4.41	4.49	+0.7
2021	30	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	29	29	157	666	163	62	27	100%	5.4	24.5%	9.3%	15.2%	4.1%	4.41	4.44	+0.8
2022	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	21	106	472	128	61	23	64%	3.2	27.3%	12.8%	14.5%	5.1%	4.94	5.19	-0.4
2022	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	21	106	472	128	61	23	64%	3.2	27.1%	12.9%	14.2%	4.9%	4.94	5.24	-0.4
2023	32	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	32	32	168	700	181	48	27	100%	5.2	25.9%	6.9%	19.0%	3.9%	3.86	3.90	+2.0
2023	32	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	32	32	168	700	181	48	27	100%	5.2	25.9%	6.9%	19.0%	3.9%	3.86	3.90	+2.0
2023	32	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	32	32	168	700	181	48	27	100%	5.2	25.9%	6.9%	19.0%	3.9%	3.86	3.89	+2.0
2024	33	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	32	32	176	736	206	44	25	100%	5.5	28.0%	6.0%	22.0%	3.5%	4.05	3.41	+3.2
2024	33	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	32	32	176	736	206	44	25	100%	5.5	28.0%	6.0%	22.0%	3.5%	4.05	3.41	+3.2
2024	33	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	32	32	176	736	206	44	25	100%	5.5	28.0%	6.0%	22.0%	3.4%	4.05	3.36	+3.3
2025	34	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	33	33	178	772	174	71	24	100%	5.4	22.5%	9.2%	13.3%	3.0%	3.99	4.03	+1.8
2025	34	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	33	33	178	772	174	71	24	100%	5.4	22.5%	9.2%	13.3%	3.0%	3.99	4.03	+1.8
2025	34	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	33	33	178	772	174	71	24	100%	5.4	22.5%	9.2%	13.3%	3.1%	3.99	4.09	+1.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			210	198	1041	4479	1065	376	172	94%	5.0	23.8%	8.4%	15.4%	3.8%	4.48	4.29	+7.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	35	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	15	15	66	306	78	31	12	100%	4.4	22.9%	9.7%	13.1%	2.9%	6.85	4.00	+0.7
YTD	35	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	15	15	66	306	78	31	12	100%	4.4	22.9%	9.7%	13.1%	2.9%	6.85	4.00	+0.7
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	35	A RAW	LAA	2	2	8	40	13	2	4	100%	3.9	32.5%	5.0%	27.5%	10.0%	14.09	6.48	—
2026	35	AAA RAW	LAA	2	2	5	30	11	6	1	100%	2.5	36.7%	20.0%	16.7%	3.3%	18.00	4.37	—
2026	35	MLB RAW	LAA	11	11	53	236	54	23	7	100%	4.8	22.9%	9.7%	13.1%	3.0%	4.75	4.03	+0.5
SO FAR	35	MLB RAW	LAA	11	11	53	236	54	23	7	100%	4.8	22.9%	9.7%	13.1%	3.0%	4.75	4.03	+0.5
ROS	35	MLB MLE	LAA	2	2	13	55	13	5	2	100%	6.6	23.8%	8.7%	15.0%	3.2%	3.89	3.95	+0.1
ROS	35	MLB CTX	LAA	2	2	13	55	13	5	2	100%	6.5	23.8%	8.7%	15.0%	3.3%	3.93	3.99	+0.1
2026 TOT	35	MLB MLE	LAA	—	—	79	361	91	36	14	—	—	25.2%	9.9%	15.3%	3.8%	6.36	3.99	+0.7
FULL	35	MLB A+C	LAA	—	—	66	279	91	36	14	—	—	32.7%	12.8%	19.8%	4.9%	7.59	4.68	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	36	MLB MLE	LAA	23	23	136	573	131	54	20	100%	5.9	22.9%	9.3%	13.6%	3.5%	4.49	4.66	+0.4
2028	37	MLB MLE	LAA	20	20	118	500	109	50	20	100%	5.9	21.8%	10.0%	11.8%	3.9%	4.83	5.06	-0.2
2027	36	MLB CTX	LAA	23	23	136	574	131	54	21	100%	5.9	22.9%	9.3%	13.6%	3.6%	4.53	4.70	+0.4
2028	37	MLB CTX	LAA	20	20	118	498	109	50	20	100%	5.9	21.8%	10.0%	11.8%	4.0%	4.87	5.10	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		255	243	1308	5608	1319	484	214	95%	5.1	23.5%	8.6%	14.9%	3.8%	4.51	4.31	+9.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	37	200	857	202	74	33	95%	5.1	23.5%	8.6%	14.9%	3.8%	4.51	4.31	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		215	203	1059	4567	1086	385	177	94%	4.9	23.8%	8.4%	15.3%	3.9%	4.59	4.28	+7.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	38	200	863	205	73	33	94%	4.9	23.8%	8.4%	15.3%	3.9%	4.59	4.28	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yusei Kikuchi (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.19	24.7%	8.1%	3.2%	—	4.85	22.4%	12.7%	254	+0.66	—	—	—
J.A. Happ L 2018 · 3.65 FIP	35	SP	3.65	26.3%	7.0%	3.5%	.266	4.88	19.7%	12.5%	363	+1.23	3.37	1,053	68
Jon Lester L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	35	SP	4.08	21.6%	6.8%	3.5%	.344	5.15	14.9%	7.4%	202	+1.07	2.81	1,144	67
Cole Hamels L 2019 · 3.84 FIP	35	SP	3.84	23.2%	8.9%	2.9%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	893	66
Jorge De La Rosa L 2016 · 4.56 FIP	35	SP	4.56	17.3%	10.1%	3.0%	.315	4.08	19.9%	11.2%	107	-0.48	3.86	405	50
Daniel Rodriguez L 2019 · 4.77 FIP	34	SP	4.77	20.8%	7.8%	4.5%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	391	38
Orlando Lara L 2019 · 4.09 FIP	34	SP	4.09	22.0%	7.8%	3.4%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	426	37
Jonathan Sánchez L 2019 · 4.73 FIP	36	SP	4.73	18.1%	8.3%	3.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	109	36
CC Sabathia L 2015 · 4.31 FIP	35	SP	4.31	18.9%	6.5%	3.6%	.311	3.97	20.1%	12.1%	481	-0.34	3.76	756	35
C.J. Wilson L 2015 · 3.69 FIP	34	SP	3.69	19.9%	8.0%	2.3%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	132	34
Jason Vargas L 2018 · 4.71 FIP	35	SP	4.71	20.8%	7.2%	4.5%	.300	4.33	19.1%	9.7%	150	-0.38	4.02	478	33
Ubaldo Jiménez R 2017 · 4.95 FIP	33	SP-	4.95	21.5%	9.0%	4.6%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	469	33
Randy Wolf L 2015 · 3.40 FIP	38	SP	3.40	16.6%	7.7%	1.3%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	174	32
Tsuyoshi Wada L 2015 · 3.66 FIP	34	SP	3.66	16.8%	7.1%	2.0%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	119	31
Mauricio Lara L 2015 · 3.62 FIP	36	SP	3.62	13.9%	6.9%	1.5%	.310	3.69	12.1%	5.1%	220	+0.07	3.62	444	31
Barry Zito L 2015 · 4.52 FIP	37	SP	4.52	13.6%	10.7%	2.2%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	4.52	138	30
Aníbal Sánchez R 2019 · 4.06 FIP	35	SP	4.06	18.8%	6.7%	3.1%	.258	5.04	17.2%	7.8%	135	+0.98	3.49	869	30
Eric Stults L 2015 · 4.27 FIP	35	SP	4.27	14.5%	5.9%	3.0%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	138	30
James Shields R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	35	SP	5.12	20.1%	9.3%	4.6%	.271	4.85	17.7%	8.7%	205	-0.27	4.15	720	29
Wandy Rodriguez L 2015 · 3.83 FIP	36	SP-	3.83	19.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	101	28
Ricky Nolasco R 2017 · 4.84 FIP	34	SP	4.84	18.2%	7.0%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.22	425	28

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	136	23.3%	9.0%	1.37	4.45
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94
Luis Garcia ('23)	1.7	113	25.5%	7.7%	1.19	3.63