Tanner Tully
P
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders
Age 31
LHP
6'2" / 205 lbs
AAA
peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 63 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112121vR 130
ERA4.92
FIP4.92
K%17.1%
BB%7.7%
K-BB%9.5%
ROS IP64
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
FB-1.2
CH-1.9
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 4 levels | 25 | 15 | 124 | 523 | 95 | 22 | 14 | 60% | 5.0 | 13.9% | 4.9% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 3.69 | 4.30 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 4 levels | 25 | 15 | 124 | 523 | 95 | 22 | 14 | 60% | 5.0 | 18.2% | 4.2% | 14.0% | 2.7% | 3.69 | 3.57 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Lynchburg Hillcats | 26 | 26 | 147 | 628 | 109 | 19 | 17 | 100% | 5.7 | 13.4% | 3.5% | 9.9% | 3.6% | 4.47 | 4.40 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Lynchburg Hillcats | 26 | 26 | 147 | 628 | 109 | 19 | 17 | 100% | 5.7 | 17.4% | 3.0% | 14.3% | 2.7% | 4.47 | 3.51 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 144 | 621 | 89 | 28 | 11 | 100% | 5.5 | 11.8% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 4.44 | 4.25 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 144 | 621 | 89 | 28 | 11 | 100% | 5.5 | 14.3% | 4.5% | 9.8% | 1.8% | 4.44 | 3.44 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 18 | 113 | 491 | 97 | 32 | 10 | 69% | 4.3 | 16.5% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 2.7% | 3.50 | 4.08 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 18 | 113 | 491 | 97 | 32 | 10 | 69% | 4.3 | 19.8% | 6.5% | 13.2% | 2.0% | 3.50 | 3.38 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 20 | 128 | 561 | 100 | 31 | 13 | 74% | 4.7 | 16.2% | 5.1% | 11.1% | 2.5% | 4.78 | 3.74 | +2.5 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 20 | 128 | 561 | 100 | 31 | 13 | 74% | 4.7 | 17.8% | 5.5% | 12.3% | 2.3% | 4.78 | 3.58 | +2.7 |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 19 | 19 | 91 | 413 | 77 | 26 | 14 | 100% | 4.8 | 16.4% | 6.6% | 9.8% | 3.6% | 5.64 | 4.53 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 19 | 19 | 91 | 413 | 77 | 26 | 14 | 100% | 4.8 | 18.6% | 6.3% | 12.3% | 3.4% | 5.64 | 4.26 | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 25 | 22 | 100 | 443 | 57 | 28 | 20 | 88% | 4.0 | 11.3% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 6.41 | 5.49 | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 25 | 22 | 100 | 443 | 57 | 28 | 20 | 88% | 4.0 | 12.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 6.41 | 5.41 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | NYY | 11 | 11 | 64 | 268 | 46 | 21 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.1% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 3.5% | 4.92 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | NYY | 10 | 10 | 59 | 248 | 43 | 20 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 3.7% | 5.00 | 5.09 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | NYY | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 39 | 20 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.3% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 3.9% | 5.14 | 5.28 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | NYY | 4 | 4 | 22 | 93 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 100% | 5.5 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 3.7% | 5.00 | 5.09 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | NYY | 5 | 5 | 30 | 127 | 22 | 11 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.3% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 3.9% | 5.14 | 5.28 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 12 | 9 | 57 | 247 | 39 | 23 | 9 | 75% | 4.8 | 16.0% | 9.5% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 5.18 | 5.02 | -0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 40 | 30 | 200 | 861 | 136 | 80 | 31 | 74% | 5.0 | 16.0% | 9.5% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 5.18 | 5.02 | +0.9 | ||
| Career | — | 174 | 146 | 847 | 3680 | 520 | 198 | 119 | 84% | 4.9 | 14.1% | 5.4% | 8.7% | 3.2% | 4.62 | 4.36 | +10.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 34 | 200 | 869 | 123 | 47 | 28 | 84% | 4.9 | 14.1% | 5.4% | 8.7% | 3.2% | 4.62 | 4.36 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tanner Tully (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.92 | 17.1% | 7.7% | 3.5% | — | 5.18 | 17.3% | 8.8% | 113 | +0.26 | — | — | — |
| Brandon Mann L 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 4.14 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.59 | 3.60 | 190 | 81 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2028 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.40 | 16.8% | 9.2% | 2.8% | .292 | 4.68 | 12.4% | 7.2% | 186 | +0.28 | 4.40 | 408 | 80 |
| Tomas Solis L 2027 · 4.35 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.35 | 15.0% | 6.2% | 3.1% | .264 | 5.50 | 12.0% | 3.7% | 159 | +1.15 | 4.35 | 327 | 78 |
| Arturo Lopez L 2027 · 4.71 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.71 | 13.7% | 6.2% | 3.6% | .301 | 4.61 | 10.9% | 4.2% | 217 | -0.10 | 4.24 | 445 | 78 |
| Everett Teaford L 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 103 | 76 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2029 · 3.79 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.79 | 14.8% | 7.1% | 1.9% | .315 | 4.03 | 13.3% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.24 | 3.39 | 138 | 76 |
| Franklin Morales L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.06 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 2.2% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 101 | 75 |
| Oscar Rivera L 2029 · 3.85 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.85 | 14.2% | 6.9% | 2.0% | .298 | 4.45 | 10.4% | 3.0% | 129 | +0.60 | 3.85 | 237 | 75 |
| Marlon Arias L 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.14 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.89 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.25 | 3.89 | 154 | 73 |
| Carlos Teller L 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.83 | 12.2% | 9.6% | 2.8% | .322 | 4.69 | 13.1% | -1.1% | 60 | -0.14 | 3.72 | 333 | 73 |
| Alejandro Astorga L 2025 · 4.17 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.17 | 14.4% | 8.2% | 2.3% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 311 | 72 |
| Kelvin Marte L 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 31 | SP | 5.18 | 12.0% | 10.8% | 3.2% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 360 | 70 |
| Travis Blackley L 2027 · 4.97 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.97 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.3% | .324 | 4.50 | 10.5% | 0.0% | 137 | -0.47 | 3.84 | 225 | 69 |
| Enrique Lechuga L 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.90 | 10.5% | 6.1% | 1.7% | .390 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.90 | 137 | 68 |
| Marco Tovar L 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.79 | 12.6% | 5.6% | 3.7% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 327 | 68 |
| Jeff Locke L 2024 · 4.18 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.18 | 17.1% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.71 | 328 | 67 |
| Roy Merritt L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.88 | 16.2% | 5.8% | 2.6% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 129 | 67 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.73 | 15.1% | 12.4% | 0.6% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 108 | 66 |
| Irwin Delgado L 2025 · 4.78 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.78 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 3.3% | .404 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 383 | 66 |
| Paul Oseguera L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.06 | 17.6% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .297 | 5.58 | 5.6% | -6.9% | 28 | +1.52 | 4.06 | 162 | 64 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 59 | 17.2% | 8.2% | 1.43 | 5.01 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |