Tanner Tully — OGILVIE

Tanner Tully P Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 31 LHP 6'2" / 205 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114122vR 130

ERA5.11

FIP5.11

K%13.1%

BB%6.2%

K-BB%6.9%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3030

FB-1.2

CH-1.9

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	25	15	124	523	95	22	14	60%	5.0	13.9%	4.9%	9.0%	3.4%	3.69	4.40	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	4 levels	25	15	124	523	95	22	14	60%	5.0	18.2%	4.2%	14.0%	2.7%	3.69	3.57	—
2018	23	A+ MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	26	26	147	628	109	19	17	100%	5.7	13.4%	3.5%	9.9%	3.5%	4.47	4.33	—
2018	23	A+ RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	26	26	147	628	109	19	17	100%	5.7	17.4%	3.0%	14.3%	2.7%	4.47	3.51	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	144	621	89	28	11	100%	5.5	11.8%	4.9%	6.8%	2.4%	4.44	4.04	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	144	621	89	28	11	100%	5.5	14.3%	4.5%	9.8%	1.8%	4.44	3.44	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	18	113	491	97	32	10	69%	4.3	16.5%	7.0%	9.4%	2.5%	3.50	3.98	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	18	113	491	97	32	10	69%	4.3	19.8%	6.5%	13.2%	2.0%	3.50	3.38	—
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	20	128	561	100	31	13	74%	4.7	16.2%	5.1%	11.1%	2.5%	4.78	3.74	+1.8
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	20	128	561	100	31	13	74%	4.7	17.8%	5.5%	12.3%	2.3%	4.78	3.58	+2.0
2023	28	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	19	19	91	413	77	26	14	100%	4.8	15.5%	5.7%	9.8%	3.7%	5.64	4.52	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	19	19	91	413	77	26	14	100%	4.8	15.5%	5.7%	9.8%	3.7%	5.64	4.52	—
2023	28	AAA RAW	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	19	19	91	413	77	26	14	100%	4.8	18.6%	6.3%	12.3%	3.4%	5.64	4.26	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	25	22	100	443	57	28	20	88%	4.0	10.7%	5.7%	5.0%	4.8%	6.41	5.53	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	25	22	100	443	57	28	20	88%	4.0	10.7%	5.7%	5.0%	4.8%	6.41	5.53	—
2024	29	AAA RAW	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	25	22	100	443	57	28	20	88%	4.0	12.9%	6.3%	6.5%	4.5%	6.41	5.41	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			3	0	6	30	2	5	1	0%	2.0	6.7%	16.7%	-10.0%	3.3%	6.00	7.10	-0.2
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	31	MLB	NYY	1	1	5	21	3	1	1	100%	5.0	13.1%	6.2%	6.9%	3.5%	5.11	5.11	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	NYY	10	10	59	248	34	17	9	100%	5.9	13.7%	6.9%	6.8%	3.7%	5.16	5.25	-0.2
2028	33	MLB MLE	NYY	9	9	54	228	32	17	9	100%	6.0	13.9%	7.5%	6.4%	4.0%	5.30	5.43	-0.3
2027	32	MLB CTX	NYY	4	4	22	93	13	6	3	100%	5.5	13.7%	6.9%	6.8%	3.7%	5.16	5.25	-0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	NYY	5	5	30	127	18	10	5	100%	6.0	13.9%	7.5%	6.4%	4.0%	5.30	5.43	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	9	57	247	32	21	9	75%	4.8	12.9%	8.4%	4.5%	3.8%	5.32	5.16	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		40	30	200	861	112	73	31	74%	5.0	12.9%	8.4%	4.5%	3.8%	5.32	5.16	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		174	146	847	3680	513	190	117	84%	4.9	13.9%	5.2%	8.8%	3.2%	4.62	4.32	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	34	200	869	121	45	28	84%	4.9	13.9%	5.2%	8.8%	3.2%	4.62	4.32	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tanner Tully (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.11	13.1%	6.2%	3.5%	—	5.34	13.8%	6.6%	113	+0.23	—	—	—
Arturo Lopez L 2015 · 4.80 FIP	32	SP	4.80	13.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.301	4.80	10.9%	4.2%	217	+0.00	4.34	445	80
Tomas Solis L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	32	SP	4.20	15.0%	6.2%	2.9%	.264	5.09	12.0%	3.7%	159	+0.89	4.20	327	78
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	78
Jorge Castillo L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	33	SP	4.50	16.8%	9.2%	3.0%	.292	4.95	12.4%	7.2%	186	+0.45	4.50	408	77
Brandon Mann L 2016 · 4.72 FIP	32	SP	4.72	19.4%	7.9%	4.1%	.320	3.97	19.0%	7.6%	128	-0.75	3.59	190	75
Carlos Teller L 2017 · 4.63 FIP	30	SP	4.63	12.2%	9.6%	2.5%	.322	4.90	13.1%	-1.1%	60	+0.27	3.75	333	74
Franklin Morales L 2017 · 4.02 FIP	31	SP-	4.02	15.0%	8.0%	2.2%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	101	73
Kelvin Marte L 2019 · 5.25 FIP	31	SP	5.25	12.0%	10.8%	3.3%	.340	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	360	72
Alejandro Astorga L 2017 · 4.01 FIP	30	SP	4.01	14.4%	8.2%	2.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	311	71
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	71
Marco Tovar L 2019 · 4.78 FIP	30	SP	4.78	12.6%	5.6%	3.7%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	327	70
Travis Blackley L 2015 · 4.91 FIP	32	SP-	4.91	15.4%	6.4%	4.2%	.324	4.45	10.5%	0.0%	137	-0.46	3.85	225	69
John Lannan L 2016 · 4.83 FIP	31	SP-	4.83	8.2%	7.7%	2.6%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	284	66
Roy Merritt L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	31	SP	3.95	16.2%	5.8%	2.7%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	129	66
Brad Mills L 2016 · 6.13 FIP	31	SP	6.13	14.4%	11.8%	5.0%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.63	182	65
Irwin Delgado L 2019 · 4.73 FIP	30	SP	4.73	15.6%	9.5%	3.2%	.404	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	383	65
Jonathon Niese L 2019 · 5.67 FIP	32	SP	5.67	10.9%	8.2%	4.5%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	368	64
Santiago Gutierrez L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	31	SP-	3.95	15.0%	8.2%	2.0%	.366	6.54	17.1%	3.7%	46	+2.59	3.90	341	63
Eric Surkamp L 2016 · 5.09 FIP	29	SP	5.09	16.4%	9.3%	4.0%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	182	62
Jason Vargas L 2015 · 4.31 FIP	32	SP	4.31	14.8%	6.6%	2.9%	.295	4.65	19.2%	12.1%	285	+0.34	4.02	478	60

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	13.5%	6.8%	1.45	5.18
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Josh Fleming ('24)	1.3	51	14.6%	7.5%	1.17	4.77
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Andrew Suárez ('23)	1.1	74	18.2%	7.8%	1.51	5.02