Tanner Tully
P
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders
+0.3
WAR
Age 31
LHP
6'2" / 205 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.96
FIP4.96
xFIP7.91
SIERA7.70
K%17.1%
BB%7.7%
K-BB%9.5%
IP91
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
K†4045
FB-1.2
CH-1.9
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 22 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 25 | 15 | 124 | 523 | 95 | 22 | 14 | 13.9% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 3.69 | 4.46 | +1.2 |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Lynchburg Hillcats | 26 | 26 | 147 | 628 | 109 | 19 | 17 | 13.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.47 | 4.32 | +1.6 |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 26 | 26 | 144 | 621 | 89 | 28 | 11 | 11.8% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 4.44 | 4.01 | +2.1 |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 26 | 18 | 113 | 491 | 97 | 32 | 10 | 16.5% | 7.0% | 2.5% | 3.50 | 3.98 | +1.7 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 27 | 20 | 128 | 561 | 100 | 31 | 13 | 16.2% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 4.78 | 3.74 | +2.3 |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 19 | 19 | 91 | 413 | 77 | 26 | 14 | 16.4% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 5.64 | 4.57 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 25 | 22 | 100 | 443 | 57 | 28 | 20 | 11.3% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 6.41 | 5.62 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | NYY | 16 | 16 | 91 | 383 | 66 | 29 | 14 | 17.1% | 7.7% | 3.6% | 4.96 | 4.96 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | NYY | 16 | 16 | 87 | 368 | 64 | 29 | 13 | 17.3% | 7.8% | 3.6% | 4.94 | 4.98 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | NYY | 15 | 15 | 83 | 351 | 61 | 28 | 13 | 17.4% | 8.0% | 3.6% | 4.96 | 5.02 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | NYY | 14 | 14 | 79 | 334 | 64 | 25 | 12 | 19.3% | 7.4% | 3.7% | 4.86 | 4.82 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 35 | MLB | NYY | 14 | 14 | 74 | 315 | 60 | 24 | 12 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 3.8% | 4.90 | 4.93 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 36 | MLB | NYY | 13 | 13 | 70 | 294 | 55 | 23 | 12 | 18.6% | 7.9% | 3.9% | 5.00 | 5.06 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 174 | 146 | 847 | 3680 | 520 | 198 | 117 | 14.1% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 4.62 | 4.34 | +9.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 34 | 200 | 869 | 123 | 47 | 28 | 14.1% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 4.62 | 4.34 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tanner Tully (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.96 | 17.1% | 7.7% | 3.6% | — | 4.94 | 18.0% | 10.2% | 249 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Travis Blackley L 2027 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.89 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.2% | .324 | 4.45 | 10.5% | 0.0% | 137 | -0.44 | 3.85 | 225 | 89 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2028 · 4.49 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.49 | 16.8% | 9.2% | 3.0% | .292 | 4.82 | 12.4% | 7.2% | 186 | +0.33 | 4.49 | 408 | 89 |
| Tomas Solis L 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.17 | 15.0% | 6.2% | 2.8% | .264 | 5.13 | 12.0% | 3.7% | 159 | +0.96 | 4.17 | 327 | 86 |
| Arturo Lopez L 2027 · 4.79 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.79 | 13.7% | 6.2% | 3.8% | .301 | 4.73 | 10.9% | 4.2% | 217 | -0.06 | 4.33 | 445 | 86 |
| Everett Teaford L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.43 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.43 | 103 | 86 |
| Alejandro Astorga L 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.01 | 14.4% | 8.2% | 2.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 311 | 78 |
| Carlos Teller L 2025 · 4.63 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.63 | 12.2% | 9.6% | 2.5% | .322 | 4.86 | 13.1% | -1.1% | 60 | +0.23 | 3.74 | 333 | 75 |
| Anthony Vasquez L 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.66 | 17.1% | 8.9% | 3.4% | .322 | 6.01 | 14.6% | 7.3% | 85 | +1.35 | 4.01 | 642 | 75 |
| Héctor Santiago L 2026 · 5.07 FIP | 31 | SP- | 5.07 | 20.4% | 11.1% | 4.2% | .307 | 4.34 | 28.4% | 19.1% | 40 | -0.73 | 4.34 | 713 | 74 |
| Edgar Osuna L 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 31 | SP- | 5.08 | 10.0% | 7.2% | 3.5% | .373 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.04 | 175 | 73 |
| Roy Merritt L 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.92 | 16.2% | 5.8% | 2.6% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 129 | 73 |
| Daniel Rodriguez L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.49 | 19.3% | 11.1% | 2.9% | .333 | 4.30 | 16.9% | 8.2% | 226 | -0.19 | 2.89 | 391 | 71 |
| Marco Tovar L 2025 · 4.78 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.78 | 12.6% | 5.6% | 3.7% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 327 | 68 |
| Irwin Delgado L 2025 · 4.75 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.75 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 3.2% | .404 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 383 | 67 |
| Christian Friedrich L 2024 · 3.86 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.86 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 2.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 188 | 67 |
| Travis Wood L 2025 · 5.71 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.71 | 14.9% | 10.3% | 4.7% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 256 | 66 |
| Wei-Yin Chen L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.49 | 19.2% | 4.6% | 4.4% | .299 | 4.37 | 19.6% | 13.1% | 235 | -0.12 | 3.60 | 549 | 66 |
| Brandon Mann L 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 3.99 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.74 | 3.59 | 190 | 65 |
| Dallas Keuchel L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.22 | 18.7% | 7.8% | 3.1% | .289 | 4.27 | 15.0% | 6.7% | 321 | +0.05 | 2.76 | 1,377 | 63 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2024 · 4.68 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.68 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 175 | 63 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.