A.J. Block — OGILVIE

A.J. Block P Tri-City Dust Devils

Age 28 LHP 6'5" / 229 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106115vR 123

ERA4.71

FIP4.71

K%22.0%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%10.2%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 3 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	18	101	416	124	36	8	78%	4.4	22.8%	10.0%	12.8%	2.3%	3.30	3.72	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	18	101	416	124	36	8	78%	4.4	29.8%	8.7%	21.2%	1.9%	3.30	2.74	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	1	54	247	61	25	9	3%	1.6	20.1%	11.7%	8.4%	5.2%	5.30	5.74	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	1	54	247	61	25	9	3%	1.6	20.1%	11.7%	8.4%	5.2%	5.30	5.74	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	1	54	247	61	25	9	3%	1.6	24.7%	10.1%	14.6%	3.6%	5.30	4.39	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	1	51	225	65	25	3	3%	1.5	22.7%	12.4%	10.3%	1.6%	3.18	3.65	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	1	51	225	65	25	3	3%	1.5	22.7%	12.4%	10.3%	1.6%	3.18	3.65	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	1	51	225	65	25	3	3%	1.5	28.9%	11.1%	17.8%	1.3%	3.18	2.79	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	LAA	3	0	3	13	3	1	0	0%	1.0	22.0%	11.8%	10.2%	2.9%	4.71	4.71	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	LAA	32	0	34	142	31	17	4	0%	1.1	21.9%	11.8%	10.1%	3.1%	4.75	4.80	-0.1
2027	29	MLB CTX	LAA	10	0	10	42	9	5	1	0%	1.0	21.9%	11.8%	10.1%	3.1%	4.75	4.80	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	10	43	9	5	1	0%	1.0	21.9%	11.8%	10.1%	3.1%	4.75	4.42	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	176	98	20	0%	1.0	21.9%	11.8%	10.1%	3.1%	4.75	4.42	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		90	20	206	888	195	98	26	22%	2.3	22.0%	11.1%	10.9%	2.9%	3.79	4.26	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		87	19	200	861	189	95	25	22%	2.3	22.0%	11.1%	10.9%	2.9%	3.79	4.26	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
A.J. Block (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	22.0%	11.8%	2.9%	—	4.80	21.9%	10.1%	34	+0.09	—	—	—
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	81
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	79
Matt Whitehouse L 2019 · 4.07 FIP	28	SW	4.07	20.1%	10.9%	2.3%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	353	77
Jeremy Horst L 2015 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	18.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.291	3.71	15.1%	2.7%	48	-0.38	3.71	108	77
Ashur Tolliver L 2016 · 4.19 FIP	28	SU	4.19	21.3%	9.8%	3.0%	.308	5.03	13.8%	-5.1%	35	+0.84	3.49	134	77
Aaron Brown L 2019 · 4.04 FIP	27	SU	4.04	22.9%	13.5%	2.1%	.317	4.77	19.4%	6.7%	129	+0.73	4.04	269	76
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	75
Dario Alvarez L 2017 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	24.7%	12.4%	2.0%	.336	3.47	20.7%	8.3%	27	-0.21	3.47	160	74
Brendan Nail L 2023 · 4.39 FIP	27	SU	4.39	18.9%	10.5%	2.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	165	73
Jordan Harrison L 2019 · 3.80 FIP	28	SU	3.80	19.1%	9.7%	2.0%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	244	73
Jeff Ibarra L 2016 · 3.75 FIP	28	SU	3.75	17.8%	9.7%	1.7%	.321	3.29	19.2%	13.8%	66	-0.46	2.85	101	72
Triston Polley L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	26	SU	4.15	17.8%	8.9%	2.6%	.331	4.53	17.4%	-0.3%	22	+0.38	4.15	151	71
Will Lamb L 2017 · 5.78 FIP	26	SU	5.78	20.0%	14.0%	4.7%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	178	71
Trevor Lane L 2022 · 4.05 FIP	28	SU	4.05	22.2%	12.7%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	246	71
Chad Bell L 2017 · 4.57 FIP	28	SW	4.57	19.4%	8.9%	3.6%	.341	4.38	18.8%	11.4%	57	-0.19	3.39	393	71
Josh Edgin L 2016 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	22.1%	13.2%	1.3%	.359	3.81	23.2%	13.6%	80	+0.17	3.63	113	70
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	70
Adam Liberatore L 2015 · 3.64 FIP	28	SU	3.64	21.1%	7.3%	2.5%	.267	3.17	23.3%	15.2%	73	-0.47	2.38	124	70
Josh Osich L 2017 · 5.00 FIP	28	SU	5.00	21.4%	12.9%	3.8%	.328	4.47	21.1%	14.1%	143	-0.53	3.41	315	70
Dan Runzler L 2015 · 3.78 FIP	30	SU	3.78	19.0%	13.1%	1.2%	.383	4.07	16.5%	4.0%	63	+0.29	3.78	127	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	34	22.0%	11.8%	1.15	4.73
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19