A.J. Block

P Tri-City Dust Devils

Age 29 LHP 6'5" / 229 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2021	23	MIX2 levels	23	18	101	3.30	2.74	29.8%	8.7%	—	K 22.8% · BB 10.0% · FIP 3.72
2024	26	MIX2 levels	34	1	54	5.30	4.39	24.7%	10.1%	—	K 20.1% · BB 11.7% · FIP 5.74
2025	27	MIX2 levels	33	1	51	3.18	2.79	28.9%	11.1%	—	K 22.7% · BB 12.4% · FIP 3.65
2026	28	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	29	MLBLAA	—	—	0	4.65	4.65	22.4%	11.5%	—
2028PROJ30% MLB	30	MLBLAA	8	0	8	4.72	4.79	22.1%	11.6%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsAndrew Barbosa (age 29) · Raul Valdes (age 32) · Ryan Verdugo (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 105113vR 122

ERA4.65

FIP4.65

K%22.4%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%10.9%

Proj IP35

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	18	101	416	124	36	8	78%	4.4	22.8%	10.0%	12.8%	2.3%	3.30	3.72	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	18	101	416	124	36	8	78%	4.4	29.8%	8.7%	21.2%	1.9%	3.30	2.74	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	1	54	247	61	25	9	3%	1.6	20.1%	11.7%	8.4%	5.2%	5.30	5.74	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	1	54	247	61	25	9	3%	1.6	20.1%	11.7%	8.4%	5.2%	5.30	5.74	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	1	54	247	61	25	9	3%	1.6	24.7%	10.1%	14.6%	3.6%	5.30	4.39	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	1	51	225	65	25	3	3%	1.5	22.7%	12.4%	10.3%	1.6%	3.18	3.65	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	1	51	225	65	25	3	3%	1.5	22.7%	12.4%	10.3%	1.6%	3.18	3.65	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	1	51	225	65	25	3	3%	1.5	28.9%	11.1%	17.8%	1.3%	3.18	2.79	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	LAA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.4%	11.5%	10.9%	2.9%	4.65	4.65	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	LAA	26	0	28	116	26	13	4	0%	1.1	22.1%	11.6%	10.5%	3.1%	4.72	4.79	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	LAA	8	0	8	34	7	4	1	0%	1.0	22.1%	11.6%	10.5%	3.1%	4.72	4.79	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	8	35	8	4	1	0%	1.0	22.1%	11.6%	10.5%	3.1%	4.72	4.41	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	96	24	0%	1.1	22.1%	11.6%	10.5%	3.1%	4.72	4.41	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		90	20	206	888	195	98	26	22%	2.3	22.0%	11.1%	10.9%	2.9%	3.79	4.26	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		87	19	200	861	189	95	25	22%	2.3	22.0%	11.1%	10.9%	2.9%	3.79	4.26	-0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 30 IPFIP 2.25 → 3.22 (+0.97)K% 31.5% → 24.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.45%	—	×0.770	24.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.26%	—	×1.150	8.35%
HR / BF /BF	1.61%	÷1.000	×1.250	2.02%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.25 → 3.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 21 IPFIP 3.48 → 4.18 (+0.70)K% 25.7% → 20.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.74%	—	×0.810	20.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.84%	—	×1.100	17.43%
HR / BF /BF	0.99%	÷1.028	×1.200	1.16%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 106).

Result: FIP 3.48 → 4.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 51 IPFIP 4.37 → 5.74 (+1.37)K% 26.1% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.11%	—	×0.770	20.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.18%	—	×1.150	11.70%
HR / BF /BF	3.98%	÷0.959	×1.250	5.19%

Result: FIP 4.37 → 5.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 3 IPFIP 3.50 → 3.78 (+0.27)K% 9.5% → 7.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	9.52%	—	×0.810	7.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.52%	—	×1.100	10.48%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.920	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.50 → 3.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 85 IPFIP 3.03 → 4.00 (+0.97)K% 27.6% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.61%	—	×0.770	21.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.30%	—	×1.150	10.69%
HR / BF /BF	1.97%	÷1.013	×1.250	2.43%

Result: FIP 3.03 → 4.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AColumbia Fireflies · 16 IPFIP 1.02 → 2.12 (+1.09)K% 42.6% → 31.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	42.62%	—	×0.740	31.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.92%	—	×1.180	5.80%
HR / BF /BF	1.64%	÷1.237	×1.300	1.72%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 147).

Result: FIP 1.02 → 2.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
A.J. Block (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.65	22.4%	11.5%	2.9%	—	4.79	22.1%	10.5%	28	+0.14	—	—	—
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	81
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	80
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	79
Matt Whitehouse L 2019 · 4.07 FIP	28	SW	4.07	20.1%	10.9%	2.3%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	353	75
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	74
John Rheinecker L 2007 · 5.13 FIP	28	SW	5.13	16.7%	10.9%	3.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	121	73
Kelvin Marte L 2017 · 4.74 FIP	29	SW	4.74	16.1%	11.4%	2.8%	.300	5.25	12.0%	1.2%	71	+0.51	3.44	360	72
Randy Keisler L 2005 · 5.07 FIP	29	SW	5.07	16.4%	9.9%	3.8%	.295	5.51	6.5%	0.0%	17	+0.44	5.07	135	71
Keith Hessler L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	29	SU	4.96	19.8%	13.3%	3.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	228	70
Edward Paredes L 2016 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	24.1%	13.0%	1.4%	.225	3.55	23.7%	14.0%	86	+0.08	2.36	130	69
Stephen Randolph L 2003 · 4.83 FIP	29	SU	4.83	18.5%	14.8%	2.6%	.247	5.69	15.8%	-3.0%	82	+0.86	4.83	155	69
Justin Marks L 2017 · 3.83 FIP	29	SW	3.83	18.7%	11.0%	1.7%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	324	69
Josh Smoker L 2018 · 3.66 FIP	29	SU	3.66	22.1%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	6.58	14.2%	3.4%	14	+2.92	2.71	230	68
Jake McSteen L 2024 · 4.64 FIP	28	SU	4.64	19.7%	6.4%	4.4%	.348	2.22	18.9%	13.2%	18	-2.42	2.22	286	68
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	67
Edgar Olmos L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	27	SW	3.64	18.9%	9.7%	1.7%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	203	67
Nick Hagadone L 2015 · 3.65 FIP	29	SU	3.65	22.6%	8.9%	2.4%	.329	3.74	22.6%	13.3%	33	+0.09	2.97	141	66
Kyle Hunter L 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SU	4.50	14.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	188	66
Kyle Regnault L 2018 · 3.82 FIP	29	SU	3.82	27.6%	9.7%	3.3%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	204	66
Chad Bell L 2018 · 4.38 FIP	29	SU	4.38	18.8%	7.4%	3.5%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	393	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	31	22.3%	11.5%	1.16	4.68
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*