Tyson Guerrero
P
Omaha Storm Chasers
+0.8
WAR
Age 27
LHP
6'1" / 188 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.8 · 2026
ERA4.70
FIP4.70
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.2%
BB%10.5%
K-BB%10.7%
IP113
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2026
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 9 | 7 | 17 | 73 | 20 | 8 | 2 | — | — | — | 4.76 | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 6 | 6 | 23 | 106 | 22 | 10 | 5 | 16.0% | 10.8% | 5.6% | 6.17 | 6.21 | -0.3 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 21 | 20 | 95 | 391 | 121 | 34 | 12 | 23.9% | 9.8% | 3.5% | 3.97 | 4.23 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 27 | 25 | 123 | 533 | 123 | 57 | 13 | 18.9% | 11.6% | 3.0% | 4.54 | 4.60 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 3 | 3 | 11 | 49 | 16 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 5.91 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | KC | 21 | 21 | 113 | 478 | 101 | 50 | 15 | 21.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 4.70 | 4.70 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | KC | 21 | 21 | 114 | 480 | 102 | 49 | 15 | 21.2% | 10.3% | 3.1% | 4.67 | 4.68 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | KC | 20 | 20 | 111 | 469 | 99 | 48 | 15 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 3.1% | 4.67 | 4.69 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | KC | 20 | 20 | 108 | 455 | 95 | 46 | 14 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 4.70 | 4.73 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | KC | 19 | 19 | 104 | 439 | 91 | 45 | 14 | 20.8% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 4.75 | 4.80 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | KC | 18 | 18 | 100 | 421 | 86 | 43 | 14 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 4.83 | 4.88 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | KC | 17 | 17 | 95 | 402 | 81 | 42 | 14 | 20.2% | 10.5% | 3.4% | 4.92 | 4.98 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | KC | 16 | 16 | 90 | 382 | 76 | 41 | 13 | 19.8% | 10.7% | 3.5% | 5.02 | 5.09 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | KC | 15 | 15 | 85 | 360 | 70 | 39 | 13 | 19.4% | 10.9% | 3.6% | 5.13 | 5.21 | -0.0 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | KC | 14 | 14 | 80 | 337 | 71 | 35 | 13 | 21.0% | 10.4% | 3.7% | 5.10 | 5.07 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 66 | 61 | 269 | 1152 | 247 | 124 | 38 | 21.4% | 10.7% | 3.3% | 4.54 | 4.48 | +2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 45 | 200 | 855 | 183 | 92 | 28 | 21.4% | 10.7% | 3.3% | 4.54 | 4.48 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tyson Guerrero (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.70 | 21.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | — | 4.70 | 21.1% | 10.9% | 332 | -0.00 | — | — | — |
| Felix Doubront L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.97 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .304 | 4.04 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 42 | +0.07 | 3.44 | 291 | 83 |
| Miguel Pena L 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.03 | 16.8% | 8.2% | 2.4% | .288 | 5.12 | 16.0% | 9.0% | 68 | +1.09 | 2.93 | 282 | 83 |
| Ryan Bollinger L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.57 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 112 | 82 |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.83 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .311 | 4.07 | 17.1% | 9.9% | 231 | -0.76 | 3.74 | 454 | 82 |
| Danny Wirchansky L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.53 | 16.2% | 7.4% | 3.4% | .246 | 5.93 | 13.0% | 0.2% | 68 | +1.40 | 4.53 | 179 | 82 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2026 · 5.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.44 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 5.3% | .289 | 5.28 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 26 | -0.16 | 5.28 | 128 | 82 |
| Justin Marks L 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.59 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .323 | 3.91 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.68 | 3.82 | 324 | 81 |
| Misael Siverio L 2025 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.90 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 1.6% | .343 | 4.28 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 63 | +0.38 | 3.90 | 185 | 80 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2023 · 5.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.02 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.02 | 116 | 79 |
| Charlie McDaniel L 2023 · 3.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.80 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.3% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 100 | 79 |
| Edgar Olmos L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.66 | 18.9% | 9.7% | 1.7% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 203 | 77 |
| Jared Koenig L 2026 · 5.17 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.17 | 16.0% | 9.4% | 4.1% | .270 | 3.79 | 20.2% | 12.2% | 267 | -1.38 | 2.72 | 455 | 77 |
| Adam Laskey L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.28 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 2.7% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 310 | 77 |
| Chipper Smith L 2024 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 109 | 77 |
| Eric Wooten L 2024 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.99 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 116 | 76 |
| James Gillheeney L 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.81 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 129 | 76 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.14 | 16.2% | 9.2% | 2.3% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 300 | 76 |
| John Anderson L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.19 | 14.3% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 235 | 75 |
| John Gast L 2025 · 3.93 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.1% | 7.9% | 1.9% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 122 | 75 |
| Hogan Harris L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.53 | 20.6% | 12.9% | 2.8% | .312 | 3.25 | 24.8% | 13.0% | 91 | -1.28 | 3.15 | 442 | 75 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.8 | $3M | +$3M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $1M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.4M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.5M |
| Totals | $6M | $13M | +$8M | ||