Tyson Guerrero
P
ACL Royals
Age 27
LHP
6'1" / 188 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.7 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION11 act + 143 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112121vR 130
ERA4.93
FIP4.93
K%19.6%
BB%11.3%
K-BB%8.3%
ROS IP143
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 154 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 7 | 17 | 73 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 78% | 1.9 | 27.4% | 11.0% | 16.4% | 2.7% | 4.76 | 3.68 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 7 | 17 | 73 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 78% | 1.9 | 27.4% | 11.0% | 16.4% | 2.7% | 4.76 | 3.69 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 6 | 6 | 23 | 106 | 22 | 10 | 5 | 100% | 3.9 | 16.0% | 10.8% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.17 | 6.08 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 6 | 6 | 23 | 106 | 22 | 10 | 5 | 100% | 3.9 | 20.8% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 4.7% | 6.17 | 5.29 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 20 | 95 | 391 | 121 | 34 | 12 | 95% | 4.5 | 23.9% | 9.8% | 14.1% | 3.4% | 3.97 | 4.20 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 20 | 95 | 391 | 121 | 34 | 12 | 95% | 4.5 | 30.9% | 8.7% | 22.3% | 3.1% | 3.97 | 3.27 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 25 | 123 | 533 | 123 | 57 | 13 | 93% | 4.6 | 18.9% | 11.6% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 4.54 | 4.62 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 25 | 123 | 533 | 123 | 57 | 13 | 93% | 4.6 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 12.4% | 2.4% | 4.54 | 3.86 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 3 | 3 | 11 | 49 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 3.6 | 32.7% | 8.2% | 24.5% | 2.0% | 5.91 | 2.50 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 3 | 3 | 11 | 49 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 3.6 | 32.7% | 8.2% | 24.5% | 2.0% | 5.91 | 2.44 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 8 | 1 | 11 | 55 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 12% | 1.3 | — | — | — | — | 5.91 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | KC | 136 | 0 | 143 | 604 | 118 | 68 | 18 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.6% | 11.3% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 4.93 | 4.93 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | KC | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 19.6% | 11.3% | 8.3% | 3.0% | 4.88 | 4.88 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | KC | — | — | 154 | 659 | 130 | 74 | 18 | — | — | 19.8% | 11.3% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 5.00 | 4.59 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | KC | 23 | 23 | 139 | 586 | 115 | 65 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.7% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.92 | 4.95 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | KC | 22 | 22 | 132 | 559 | 110 | 62 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.6% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 3.3% | 4.96 | 5.03 | +0.6 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | KC | 8 | 8 | 50 | 211 | 42 | 23 | 6 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.7% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.86 | 4.89 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | KC | 12 | 12 | 73 | 308 | 61 | 34 | 10 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.6% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 4.90 | 4.97 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 21 | 21 | 123 | 519 | 102 | 58 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.7% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.89 | 4.56 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 166 | 94 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.7% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.89 | 4.56 | +2.0 | ||
| Career | — | 74 | 62 | 280 | 1207 | 259 | 130 | 38 | 84% | 3.8 | 21.4% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 3.2% | 4.60 | 4.38 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 44 | 200 | 862 | 185 | 93 | 27 | 84% | 3.8 | 21.4% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 3.2% | 4.60 | 4.38 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tyson Guerrero (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.93 | 19.6% | 11.3% | 3.1% | — | 4.99 | 19.7% | 8.6% | 271 | +0.06 | — | — | — |
| Justin Marks L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .323 | 3.78 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.78 | 3.75 | 324 | 82 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2023 · 4.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.93 | 116 | 78 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.27 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 5.0% | .289 | 5.37 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 26 | +0.10 | 5.27 | 128 | 76 |
| Danny Wirchansky L 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.98 | 16.2% | 7.4% | 4.2% | .246 | 6.63 | 13.0% | 0.2% | 68 | +1.65 | 4.98 | 179 | 76 |
| Scott DeCecco L 2023 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.58 | 14.5% | 11.5% | 2.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.58 | 125 | 76 |
| Chipper Smith L 2024 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.83 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 109 | 75 |
| Hogan Harris L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.53 | 20.6% | 12.9% | 2.8% | .312 | 3.34 | 26.6% | 15.2% | 121 | -1.19 | 3.14 | 473 | 75 |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.53 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 3.3% | .311 | 4.31 | 17.2% | 9.9% | 300 | -0.22 | 3.88 | 523 | 75 |
| John Anderson L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.02 | 14.3% | 8.7% | 1.9% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | 235 | 74 |
| Nick Additon L 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.78 | 14.0% | 7.9% | 1.6% | .307 | 4.62 | 14.4% | 7.1% | 106 | +0.84 | 3.06 | 217 | 74 |
| James Gillheeney L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 129 | 74 |
| Adam Laskey L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.39 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 310 | 73 |
| Eric Wooten L 2024 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.16 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 116 | 72 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.13 | 16.2% | 9.2% | 2.2% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 300 | 72 |
| Alex Troop L 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.84 | 17.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .275 | 5.64 | 17.3% | 10.5% | 43 | +0.80 | 2.96 | 379 | 71 |
| Felix Doubront L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.87 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.2% | .304 | 4.45 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 42 | +0.58 | 3.39 | 291 | 71 |
| Jeffry Antigua L 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.65 | 11.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.65 | 133 | 70 |
| Misael Siverio L 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.00 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 1.7% | .343 | 4.52 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 63 | +0.52 | 4.00 | 185 | 70 |
| Darin Gorski L 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.79 | 15.2% | 11.4% | 2.8% | .323 | 4.39 | 15.0% | 5.2% | 69 | -0.40 | 4.39 | 206 | 68 |
| Anthony Vasquez L 2027 · 4.33 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.33 | 11.8% | 9.3% | 1.9% | .278 | 4.14 | 14.3% | 7.3% | 423 | -0.19 | 4.01 | 642 | 68 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 138 | 19.6% | 11.2% | 1.22 | 4.94 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Edinson Volquez ('17) | 3 | 161 | 17.9% | 9.6% | 0.88 | 4.39 |