Tyson Guerrero — OGILVIE

Tyson Guerrero P Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 27 LHP 6'1" / 188 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.5 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION30 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110118vR 126

ERA4.88

FIP4.88

K%19.4%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%8.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5050

CMD5050

K†4545

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	7	17	73	20	8	2	78%	1.9	27.4%	11.0%	16.4%	2.7%	4.76	3.68	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	7	17	73	20	8	2	78%	1.9	27.4%	11.0%	16.4%	2.7%	4.76	3.69	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	6	6	23	106	22	10	5	100%	3.9	16.0%	10.8%	5.1%	5.6%	6.17	6.22	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	6	6	23	106	22	10	5	100%	3.9	20.8%	9.4%	11.3%	4.7%	6.17	5.29	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	20	95	391	121	34	12	95%	4.5	23.9%	9.8%	14.1%	3.5%	3.97	4.26	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	20	95	391	121	34	12	95%	4.5	23.9%	9.8%	14.1%	3.5%	3.97	4.26	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	20	95	391	121	34	12	95%	4.5	30.9%	8.7%	22.3%	3.1%	3.97	3.27	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	123	533	123	57	13	93%	4.6	18.7%	11.2%	7.5%	2.9%	4.54	4.53	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	123	533	123	57	13	93%	4.6	18.7%	11.2%	7.5%	2.9%	4.54	4.53	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	25	123	533	123	57	13	93%	4.6	23.1%	10.7%	12.4%	2.4%	4.54	3.86	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	3	3	11	49	16	4	1	100%	3.6	32.7%	8.2%	24.5%	2.0%	5.91	2.50	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	3	3	11	49	16	4	1	100%	3.6	32.7%	8.2%	24.5%	2.0%	5.91	2.50	—
2025	26	AAA RAW	Omaha Storm Chasers	3	3	11	49	16	4	1	100%	3.6	32.7%	8.2%	24.5%	2.0%	5.91	2.44	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	21	1	30	133	35	17	3	5%	1.4	23.9%	15.5%	8.4%	4.6%	5.70	5.58	—
YTD	27	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	21	1	30	133	35	17	3	5%	1.4	23.9%	15.5%	8.4%	4.6%	5.70	5.58	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	ROK RAW	KC	4	1	6	32	6	4	0	25%	1.6	18.8%	12.5%	6.2%	0.0%	5.68	3.10	—
2026	27	A+ RAW	KC	4	0	4	23	6	2	0	0%	1.1	26.1%	8.7%	17.4%	0.0%	6.23	2.00	—
2026	27	AA RAW	KC	13	0	19	78	23	11	3	0%	1.5	29.5%	14.1%	15.4%	3.8%	5.59	4.51	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	KC	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	19.4%	10.8%	8.6%	3.0%	4.88	4.88	-0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	36	158	40	20	4	—	—	25.2%	12.5%	12.8%	2.4%	5.57	5.47	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	KC	23	23	139	586	114	62	18	100%	6.0	19.6%	10.6%	8.9%	3.1%	4.86	4.90	0.0
2028	29	MLB MLE	KC	22	22	132	559	109	59	18	100%	6.0	19.5%	10.6%	8.9%	3.3%	4.91	4.98	-0.1
2029	30	MLB MLE	KC	21	21	124	526	101	57	18	100%	5.9	19.3%	10.8%	8.5%	3.5%	5.02	5.12	-0.3
2027	28	MLB CTX	KC	9	9	52	220	43	23	6	100%	5.8	19.6%	10.6%	8.9%	2.9%	4.73	4.77	0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	KC	12	12	74	312	61	33	9	100%	6.2	19.5%	10.6%	8.9%	3.0%	4.78	4.85	-0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	KC	14	14	85	359	69	39	11	100%	6.1	19.3%	10.8%	8.5%	3.2%	4.88	4.98	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		35	35	211	890	173	95	27	100%	6.0	19.4%	10.7%	8.7%	3.1%	4.81	4.50	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	164	90	26	100%	6.0	19.4%	10.7%	8.7%	3.1%	4.81	4.50	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		87	62	299	1285	278	142	44	71%	3.4	21.6%	11.1%	10.6%	3.4%	4.66	4.57	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	41	200	859	186	95	30	71%	3.4	21.6%	11.1%	10.6%	3.4%	4.66	4.57	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyson Guerrero (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.88	19.4%	10.8%	3.0%	—	5.00	19.4%	8.8%	396	+0.12	—	—	—
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	78
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.43	16.3%	8.9%	346	-0.44	3.70	569	76
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	76
Tyler Alexander L 2019 · 5.56 FIP	27	SP-	5.56	21.7%	9.8%	5.6%	.289	5.27	15.7%	5.0%	26	-0.29	5.27	128	73
Garrett Schoenle L 2023 · 5.38 FIP	25	SP-	5.38	20.5%	15.0%	3.9%	.307	3.59	20.9%	12.2%	172	-1.79	2.32	359	72
John Anderson L 2016 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	14.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	235	72
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	72
Eric Wooten L 2015 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	14.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	116	72
Ken Waldichuk L 2023 · 5.01 FIP	25	SP-	5.01	20.7%	11.0%	4.1%	.303	5.84	21.0%	6.1%	51	+0.83	3.51	432	71
Nick Additon L 2015 · 3.73 FIP	27	SP-	3.73	14.0%	7.9%	1.5%	.307	4.15	14.4%	7.1%	106	+0.42	3.13	217	71
Scott DeCecco L 2015 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP-	4.55	14.5%	11.5%	2.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.55	125	70
Frank Garces L 2016 · 4.32 FIP	26	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.0%	3.0%	.317	4.84	15.0%	7.1%	132	+0.52	4.32	306	70
Aaron Laffey L 2015 · 4.12 FIP	30	SW	4.12	13.5%	9.7%	1.7%	.318	4.39	12.5%	5.2%	192	+0.27	3.51	282	69
Matt Tracy L 2016 · 3.89 FIP	27	SW	3.89	13.8%	8.3%	1.7%	.328	4.22	15.3%	5.5%	129	+0.33	3.24	298	68
John Michael Bertrand L 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	14.8%	8.1%	1.5%	.294	4.33	14.1%	5.2%	345	+0.62	3.71	463	68
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	68
Matt Whitehouse L 2018 · 4.55 FIP	27	SW	4.55	17.0%	12.8%	2.3%	.308	4.07	20.1%	9.2%	81	-0.48	3.37	353	68
Lael Lockhart L 2023 · 4.29 FIP	25	SW	4.29	22.6%	12.9%	2.7%	.302	4.94	19.6%	8.8%	307	+0.65	3.59	520	67
Carlos Teller L 2015 · 3.75 FIP	28	SP-	3.75	13.8%	10.9%	0.8%	.329	4.75	13.3%	3.1%	187	+1.00	3.75	333	67
Cam Alldred L 2023 · 4.69 FIP	27	SP-	4.69	18.0%	9.1%	3.5%	.283	4.17	18.1%	7.7%	34	-0.52	3.70	332	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	135	19.4%	10.7%	1.25	4.91
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56