Tyson Guerrero

P Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 28 LHP 6'1" / 188 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	27	25	123	4.54	3.86	23.1%	10.7%	—	K 18.8% · BB 11.2% · FIP 4.52
2025	26	AAAKC	3	3	11	5.91	2.44	32.7%	8.2%	—	K 32.7% · BB 8.2% · FIP 2.50
2026	27	MIX3 levels	21	1	30	5.70	3.77	26.3%	12.8%	—	K 23.9% · BB 15.5% · FIP 5.58
2027PROJ	28	MLBKC	1	1	3	4.98	4.98	21.4%	12.4%	0.0
2028PROJ23% MLB	29	MLBKC	4	4	26	4.98	5.03	21.2%	12.2%	0.1
2029PROJ39% MLB	30	MLBKC	6	6	37	5.06	5.15	20.9%	12.2%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsTyler Alexander (age 27) · Danny Wirchansky (age 27) · Hogan Harris (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112120vR 128

ERA4.98

FIP4.98

K%21.4%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%8.9%

Proj IP143

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 143 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	7	17	73	20	8	2	78%	1.9	27.4%	11.0%	16.4%	2.7%	4.76	3.68	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	7	17	73	20	8	2	78%	1.9	27.4%	11.0%	16.4%	2.7%	4.76	3.69	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	6	6	23	106	22	10	5	100%	3.9	16.0%	10.8%	5.1%	5.6%	6.17	6.22	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	6	6	23	106	22	10	5	100%	3.9	20.8%	9.4%	11.3%	4.7%	6.17	5.29	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	20	95	391	121	34	12	95%	4.5	23.9%	9.8%	14.1%	3.5%	3.97	4.26	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	20	95	391	121	34	12	95%	4.5	30.9%	8.7%	22.3%	3.1%	3.97	3.27	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	123	533	123	57	13	93%	4.6	18.8%	11.2%	7.6%	2.9%	4.54	4.52	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	123	533	123	57	13	93%	4.6	18.8%	11.2%	7.6%	2.9%	4.54	4.52	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	25	123	533	123	57	13	93%	4.6	23.1%	10.7%	12.4%	2.4%	4.54	3.86	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	3	3	11	49	16	4	1	100%	3.6	32.7%	8.2%	24.5%	2.0%	5.91	2.50	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	3	3	11	49	16	4	1	100%	3.6	32.7%	8.2%	24.5%	2.0%	5.91	2.50	—
2025	26	AAA RAW	Omaha Storm Chasers	3	3	11	49	16	4	1	100%	3.6	32.7%	8.2%	24.5%	2.0%	5.91	2.44	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	1	30	133	35	17	3	5%	1.4	23.9%	15.5%	8.4%	4.6%	5.70	5.58	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	1	30	133	35	17	3	5%	1.4	23.9%	15.5%	8.4%	4.6%	5.70	5.58	—
2026	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	1	30	133	35	17	3	5%	1.4	26.3%	12.8%	13.5%	2.3%	5.70	3.77	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	KC	1	1	3	13	3	2	0	100%	3.0	21.4%	12.4%	8.9%	3.1%	4.98	4.98	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	KC	19	19	112	475	101	58	16	100%	5.9	21.2%	12.2%	9.0%	3.3%	4.98	5.03	+0.5
2029	30	MLB MLE	KC	16	16	96	404	84	49	14	100%	6.0	20.9%	12.2%	8.8%	3.5%	5.06	5.15	+0.3
2028	29	MLB CTX	KC	4	4	26	110	23	13	4	100%	6.5	21.2%	12.2%	9.0%	3.3%	4.98	5.03	+0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	KC	6	6	37	156	33	19	5	100%	6.2	20.9%	12.2%	8.8%	3.5%	5.06	5.15	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	10	63	266	56	32	9	100%	6.3	21.0%	12.2%	8.9%	3.4%	5.03	4.72	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	178	102	29	100%	6.0	21.0%	12.2%	8.9%	3.4%	5.03	4.72	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		87	62	299	1285	278	142	44	71%	3.4	21.7%	11.1%	10.6%	3.4%	4.66	4.57	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	41	200	859	186	95	30	71%	3.4	21.7%	11.1%	10.6%	3.4%	4.66	4.57	+0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 19 IPFIP 4.51 → 5.58 (+1.07)K% 29.5% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.49%	—	×0.810	23.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.10%	—	×1.100	15.51%
HR / BF /BF	3.85%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.62%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.51 → 5.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKACL Royals · 6 IPFIP 3.10 → 4.00 (+0.90)K% 18.8% → 12.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.75%	—	×0.680	12.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×1.250	15.62%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 4.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 4 IPFIP 2.00 → 2.67 (+0.67)K% 26.1% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.09%	—	×0.770	20.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.70%	—	×1.150	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.00 → 2.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 11 IPFIP 2.50 → 2.89 (+0.39)K% 32.7% → 28.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.65%	—	×0.860	28.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.16%	—	×0.900	7.35%
HR / BF /BF	2.04%	÷1.003	×1.100	2.24%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 2.50 → 2.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 102 IPFIP 3.25 → 4.08 (+0.83)K% 25.0% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.810	20.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.86%	—	×1.100	10.85%
HR / BF /BF	1.83%	÷0.920	×1.200	2.39%

Result: FIP 3.25 → 4.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 21 IPFIP 6.54 → 6.50 (−0.04)K% 14.4% → 12.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.43%	—	×0.860	12.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.43%	—	×0.900	12.99%
HR / BF /BF	5.15%	÷1.111	×1.100	5.10%

Result: FIP 6.54 → 6.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 84 IPFIP 3.16 → 4.26 (+1.10)K% 31.0% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.99%	—	×0.770	23.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.48%	—	×1.150	9.75%
HR / BF /BF	2.92%	÷1.033	×1.250	3.54%

Result: FIP 3.16 → 4.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 11 IPFIP 4.05 → 5.51 (+1.46)K% 30.6% → 24.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.61%	—	×0.810	24.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.20%	—	×1.100	11.22%
HR / BF /BF	4.08%	÷0.872	×1.200	5.62%

Result: FIP 4.05 → 5.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyson Guerrero (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	5.09	21.1%	8.9%	208	+0.11	—	—	—
Tyler Alexander L 2019 · 5.56 FIP	27	SP-	5.56	21.7%	9.8%	5.6%	.289	5.27	15.7%	5.0%	26	-0.29	5.27	128	74
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	72
Hogan Harris L 2024 · 4.46 FIP	27	SP-	4.46	20.3%	11.8%	2.9%	.312	3.42	26.7%	15.1%	150	-1.04	3.09	501	70
John Anderson L 2016 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	14.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	235	69
Eric Wooten L 2015 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	14.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	116	66
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	65
James Gillheeney L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP-	3.79	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	129	65
Houston Harding L 2024 · 4.54 FIP	26	SP-	4.54	16.5%	11.2%	2.6%	.268	5.19	12.0%	0.5%	61	+0.65	3.41	239	65
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	63
Chris Michalak L 2001 · 4.92 FIP	30	SP-	4.92	11.0%	8.2%	3.1%	.291	4.71	7.0%	-4.3%	14	-0.21	4.71	186	63
Matt Tracy L 2017 · 4.82 FIP	28	SP-	4.82	16.1%	9.4%	3.5%	.325	3.24	13.9%	3.5%	49	-1.58	3.24	298	62
Austin Warner L 2022 · 4.78 FIP	28	SW	4.78	16.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	491	62
Chris O'Grady L 2017 · 4.33 FIP	27	SP-	4.33	21.4%	9.0%	3.5%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	232	61
Andy Oliver L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	28	SP-	3.93	19.9%	9.9%	2.3%	.321	7.12	16.6%	2.7%	21	+3.19	3.93	187	60
Jeffry Antigua L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	25	SP-	4.60	11.4%	8.6%	2.5%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	133	60
Onelki Garcia L 2017 · 4.02 FIP	27	SP-	4.02	16.5%	9.3%	2.1%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	164	60
Tommy Shirley L 2016 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP-	4.93	13.0%	8.8%	3.3%	.366	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	147	59
Dylan Dodd L 2024 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	17.5%	6.0%	4.2%	.338	3.97	26.5%	21.7%	123	-0.74	3.31	475	59
Darrell May L 2002 · 5.40 FIP	30	SP-	5.40	16.4%	8.1%	4.8%	.284	5.02	13.5%	7.2%	462	-0.38	4.24	657	59
Rio Gomez L 2023 · 5.24 FIP	28	SP-	5.24	21.6%	11.9%	4.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.54	246	59

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	117	21.2%	12.3%	1.27	5.00
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Jeff Robinson ('87-'92, 0 WAR*)	3.5	118	18.3%*	10.9%*	1.38*	5.14*
Jason Bere ('03)	5.6	123	18.4%	12.6%	1.17	5.14
Tyler Green ('98)	1.9	128	15.4%	11.8%	1.10	5.16
Les Cain ('68-'72, 2 WAR*)	1.9	93	24.6%*	12.9%*	1.00*	4.66*
Scipio Spinks ('69-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.0	67	23.7%*	12.2%*	1.04*	4.52*