Hogan Harris
P
Athletics
+0.3
WAR
Age 29
LHP
6'3" / 230 lbs
MLB
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.37
FIP4.36
xFIP5.72
SIERA5.40
K%22.6%
BB%11.1%
K-BB%11.5%
IP66
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL3535
CMD4040
K†5050
FB Velo
p6095.2
Whiff%
p3222.8%
K%
p3520.0%
xwOBA vs
p770.286
FB+4.1 (57%)
CH (5%)
CU (24%)
SL (14%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Stockton Ports | 7 | 7 | 29 | 109 | 29 | 10 | 2 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 2.0% | 2.51 | 3.82 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | 23 | 22 | 74 | 318 | 105 | 43 | 6 | 27.4% | 14.7% | 1.9% | 3.42 | 3.70 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 29 | 20 | 120 | 551 | 111 | 66 | 22 | 18.9% | 12.3% | 4.2% | 6.83 | 5.39 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 34 | 22 | 129 | 575 | 126 | 72 | 15 | 20.6% | 12.9% | 2.8% | 4.40 | 4.53 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Athletics | 58 | 0 | 79 | 343 | 90 | 36 | 5 | 25.4% | 10.6% | 1.5% | 3.40 | 3.15 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Athletics | 11 | 0 | 11 | 53 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 20.8% | 20.8% | 0.0% | 2.38 | 3.98 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | OAK | 54 | — | 54 | 229 | 48 | 30 | 5 | 21.0% | 12.9% | 2.4% | 4.18 | 4.28 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 29 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 66 | 282 | 59 | 41 | 5 | 20.9% | 14.4% | 1.9% | 3.87 | 4.22 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 12 | 12 | 64 | 268 | 55 | 35 | 7 | 20.4% | 13.1% | 2.4% | 4.67 | 4.75 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 11 | 11 | 61 | 259 | 51 | 34 | 6 | 19.8% | 13.2% | 2.5% | 4.78 | 4.85 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 59 | — | 59 | 248 | 48 | 33 | 6 | 19.2% | 13.4% | 2.6% | 4.89 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 56 | — | 56 | 237 | 44 | 32 | 6 | 18.5% | 13.6% | 2.7% | 5.01 | 5.10 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | OAK | 53 | — | 53 | 225 | 40 | 31 | 6 | 17.8% | 13.8% | 2.8% | 5.15 | 5.24 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | OAK | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 36 | 30 | 6 | 17.1% | 14.0% | 2.9% | 5.29 | 5.39 | -0.3 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | OAK | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 32 | 28 | 6 | 16.3% | 14.2% | 3.0% | 5.45 | 5.55 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 162 | 71 | 442 | 1949 | 430 | 247 | 53 | 22.1% | 12.7% | 2.7% | 4.54 | 4.34 | +4.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 73 | 32 | 200 | 882 | 195 | 112 | 24 | 22.1% | 12.7% | 2.7% | 4.54 | 4.34 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Hogan Harris (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.64 | 21.0% | 11.8% | 2.6% | — | 4.85 | 19.8% | 6.6% | 184 | +0.21 | — | — | — |
| Marlon Arias L 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .330 | 3.73 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.57 | 3.73 | 154 | 76 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 75 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.45 | 14.2% | 12.2% | 3.7% | .356 | 4.80 | 14.1% | 5.9% | 242 | -0.65 | 3.45 | 512 | 73 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2025 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.61 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.36 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.25 | 3.36 | 153 | 72 |
| Aaron Brown L 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.16 | 17.4% | 12.8% | 1.6% | .275 | 5.36 | 21.3% | 8.8% | 66 | +1.20 | 4.02 | 269 | 72 |
| Brian Flynn L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.49 | 17.7% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 277 | 70 |
| Keith Hessler L 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.04 | 19.8% | 13.3% | 3.5% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 228 | 70 |
| Bryan Harper L 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.65 | 14.9% | 13.9% | 1.9% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 133 | 69 |
| Enrique Lechuga L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.67 | 10.0% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .354 | 3.79 | 10.5% | 4.4% | 59 | -0.88 | 3.79 | 137 | 69 |
| Jose Meraz L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.31 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .282 | 3.80 | 10.5% | -2.0% | 30 | -0.51 | 3.70 | 110 | 69 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 126 | 69 |
| Dan Runzler L 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.78 | 19.0% | 13.1% | 1.1% | .383 | 4.03 | 16.5% | 4.0% | 63 | +0.25 | 3.78 | 127 | 69 |
| Sam Freeman L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.22 | 16.3% | 11.8% | 1.8% | .345 | 4.06 | 22.1% | 10.5% | 169 | -0.16 | 3.06 | 299 | 69 |
| Colton Johnson L 2024 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.53 | 12.2% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 106 | 68 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.68 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 175 | 68 |
| Ryan Och L 2024 · 3.84 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.84 | 19.5% | 13.9% | 1.1% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.54 | 124 | 67 |
| Jimmy Reyes L 2025 · 4.88 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.88 | 13.8% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 200 | 67 |
| Josh Osich L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.73 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.6% | .377 | 5.02 | 22.2% | 15.9% | 115 | +1.29 | 3.41 | 315 | 66 |
| Caleb Thielbar L 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.16 | 11.8% | 10.8% | 1.2% | .253 | 2.66 | 19.0% | 16.6% | 57 | -1.50 | 2.22 | 459 | 66 |
| Tommy Layne L 2027 · 3.64 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.64 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.6% | .284 | 3.27 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 97 | -0.37 | 1.32 | 182 | 66 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.