Hogan Harris

P Athletics

Age 30 LHP 6'3" / 230 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	27	MIX2 levels	34	22	129	4.40	4.33	21.9%	12.5%	1.6	K 20.3% · BB 11.8% · FIP 4.46
2025	28	MIX2 levels	58	0	79	3.40	3.01	26.2%	10.5%	1.5	K 25.2% · BB 10.3% · FIP 3.09
2026	29	MLBOAK	74	0	70	3.33	3.78	28.3%	12.9%	0.6
2027PROJ	30	MLBOAK	54	0	57	4.09	4.38	24.8%	12.4%	0.1
2028PROJ95% MLB	31	MLBOAK	34	0	36	4.40	4.61	24.1%	12.7%	-0.0
2029PROJ95% MLB	32	MLBOAK	23	0	24	4.68	4.86	23.3%	13.1%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%83

xwOBA vs64

FB Velo60

Form3.22 ERA (proj 4.09) · K 24.5% (proj 24.8%) · BB 14.9% (proj 12.4%) ▼ last 90d · 22 IP through Oct 27

CompsRaul Valdes (age 32) · Andrew Barbosa (age 29) · Ryan O'Rourke (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 93101vR 109

ERA4.09

FIP4.38

K%24.8%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%12.4%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6095.2

Whiff%

p5025.3%

p8328.3%

xwOBA vs

p640.298

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	22	A+ MLE	Stockton Ports	7	7	29	109	29	10	2	100%	4.1	20.5%	10.6%	9.9%	2.1%	2.51	3.84	—
2019	22	A+ RAW	Stockton Ports	7	7	29	109	29	10	2	100%	4.1	26.6%	9.2%	17.4%	1.8%	2.51	3.03	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	22	74	318	105	43	6	96%	3.2	27.4%	14.7%	12.7%	1.9%	3.42	3.71	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	22	74	318	105	43	6	96%	3.2	33.0%	13.5%	19.5%	1.9%	3.42	3.06	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	20	120	551	111	66	22	69%	4.1	18.7%	11.3%	7.5%	4.4%	6.83	5.36	+0.1
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	20	120	551	111	66	22	69%	4.1	20.1%	12.0%	8.2%	4.0%	6.83	5.28	+0.2
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	22	129	575	126	72	15	65%	3.8	20.3%	11.8%	8.5%	2.9%	4.40	4.46	+1.4
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	22	129	575	126	72	15	65%	3.8	20.3%	11.8%	8.5%	2.9%	4.40	4.46	+1.4
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	22	129	575	126	72	15	65%	3.8	21.9%	12.5%	9.4%	2.6%	4.40	4.33	+1.6
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	58	0	79	343	90	36	5	0%	1.4	25.2%	10.3%	14.9%	1.5%	3.40	3.09	+1.4
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	58	0	79	343	90	36	5	0%	1.4	25.2%	10.3%	14.9%	1.5%	3.40	3.09	+1.4
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	58	0	79	343	90	36	5	0%	1.4	26.2%	10.5%	15.7%	1.5%	3.40	3.01	+1.5
2026	29	MLB MLE	Athletics	74	0	70	311	88	40	8	0%	1.0	28.3%	12.9%	15.4%	2.6%	3.33	3.79	+0.6
2026	29	MLB MLE	Athletics	74	0	70	311	88	40	8	0%	1.0	28.3%	12.9%	15.4%	2.6%	3.33	3.79	+0.6
2026	29	MLB RAW	Athletics	74	0	70	311	88	40	8	0%	1.0	28.3%	12.9%	15.4%	2.6%	3.33	3.78	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			157	15	270	1177	270	130	30	10%	1.7	22.9%	11.0%	11.9%	2.5%	4.06	3.99	+1.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	OAK	54	0	57	241	60	30	6	0%	1.1	24.8%	12.4%	12.4%	2.6%	4.09	4.38	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	OAK	36	0	38	159	38	20	4	0%	1.0	24.1%	12.7%	11.4%	2.8%	4.40	4.61	-0.0
2029	32	MLB MLE	OAK	24	0	25	105	24	14	3	0%	1.0	23.3%	13.1%	10.2%	3.1%	4.68	4.86	-0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	OAK	34	0	36	152	37	19	4	0%	1.1	24.1%	12.7%	11.4%	2.8%	4.40	4.61	-0.0
2029	32	MLB CTX	OAK	23	0	24	101	24	13	3	0%	1.0	23.3%	13.1%	10.2%	3.1%	4.68	4.86	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		214	15	330	1428	330	162	37	7%	1.5	23.1%	11.4%	11.7%	2.6%	4.14	4.03	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		130	9	200	866	200	98	22	7%	1.5	23.1%	11.4%	11.7%	2.6%	4.14	4.03	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		225	71	501	2207	504	264	62	32%	2.2	22.8%	12.0%	10.9%	2.8%	4.42	4.24	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		90	28	200	881	201	105	25	32%	2.2	22.8%	12.0%	10.9%	2.8%	4.42	4.24	+1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 15 IPFIP 1.24 → 1.56 (+0.31)K% 37.9% → 32.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.88%	—	×0.860	32.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.61%	—	×0.900	9.55%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.183	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 137).

Result: FIP 1.24 → 1.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 57 IPFIP 4.52 → 4.79 (+0.26)K% 24.1% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.07%	—	×0.860	20.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.44%	—	×0.900	13.00%
HR / BF /BF	2.96%	÷1.001	×1.100	3.26%

Result: FIP 4.52 → 4.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 57 IPFIP 5.63 → 5.95 (+0.32)K% 20.6% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.60%	—	×0.860	17.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.23%	—	×0.900	12.81%
HR / BF /BF	4.49%	÷0.996	×1.100	4.97%

Result: FIP 5.63 → 5.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAMidland RockHounds · 32 IPFIP 1.86 → 2.62 (+0.76)K% 36.1% → 29.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.09%	—	×0.810	29.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×1.100	15.71%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.793	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 59).

Result: FIP 1.86 → 2.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 28 IPFIP 4.73 → 5.17 (+0.44)K% 29.5% → 26.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.55%	—	×0.880	26.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.88%	—	×1.050	13.52%
HR / BF /BF	4.55%	÷1.075	×1.100	4.65%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 115).

Result: FIP 4.73 → 5.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 13 IPFIP 1.91 → 2.82 (+0.91)K% 34.0% → 26.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.96%	—	×0.770	26.15%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.21%	—	×1.150	15.19%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.944	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 89).

Result: FIP 1.91 → 2.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Stockton Ports · 29 IPFIP 3.02 → 3.84 (+0.81)K% 26.6% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.61%	—	×0.770	20.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.17%	—	×1.150	10.55%
HR / BF /BF	1.83%	÷1.114	×1.250	2.06%

Result: FIP 3.02 → 3.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hogan Harris (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.38	24.8%	12.4%	2.6%	—	4.71	23.7%	10.9%	62	+0.33	—	—	—
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	69
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	67
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	65
Armando Almanza L 2003 · 4.95 FIP	30	SU	4.95	21.3%	10.0%	4.3%	.331	5.29	24.1%	14.8%	12	+0.34	2.90	211	64
Mike Dunn L 2015 · 3.75 FIP	30	SU	3.75	27.7%	11.9%	2.7%	.294	4.21	22.5%	10.9%	110	+0.46	2.82	432	64
Brian Fuentes L 2006 · 3.47 FIP	30	SU	3.47	26.6%	8.0%	2.9%	.246	3.22	24.6%	15.8%	179	-0.25	2.08	602	64
Brian Moran L 2019 · 3.40 FIP	30	SU	3.40	26.9%	10.0%	2.4%	.269	2.99	25.5%	18.5%	99	-0.41	1.80	421	63
John Rheinecker L 2007 · 5.13 FIP	28	SW	5.13	16.7%	10.9%	3.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	121	63
Tommy Phelps L 2004 · 4.80 FIP	30	SW	4.80	19.4%	8.3%	4.2%	.286	3.98	13.2%	5.7%	23	-0.82	3.39	120	63
Tony Sipp L 2013 · 4.38 FIP	30	SU	4.38	24.0%	11.4%	3.4%	.271	3.74	27.3%	19.7%	149	-0.64	2.22	504	62
Doug Slaten L 2010 · 3.22 FIP	30	SU	3.22	20.7%	9.8%	1.1%	.269	4.85	13.5%	3.1%	29	+1.63	3.22	139	62
Cesár Ramos L 2014 · 3.93 FIP	30	SU	3.93	18.3%	8.9%	2.3%	.256	4.24	16.7%	9.0%	225	+0.31	2.56	463	62
John Grabow L 2009 · 3.93 FIP	30	SU	3.93	18.2%	11.8%	1.6%	.265	5.00	14.2%	5.2%	88	+1.07	3.66	471	62
Damaso Marte L 2005 · 3.97 FIP	30	SU	3.97	25.4%	13.6%	2.4%	.320	2.99	26.1%	16.8%	169	-0.98	2.41	495	62
Keith Hessler L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	29	SU	4.96	19.8%	13.3%	3.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	228	62
Justin Wilson L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	30	SU	3.56	29.2%	13.6%	2.2%	.308	3.85	24.0%	13.5%	93	+0.29	2.49	554	61
Brian Tallet L 2008 · 3.36 FIP	30	SU	3.36	19.6%	7.9%	1.7%	.282	5.06	16.0%	6.3%	251	+1.70	2.59	443	61
Nick Hagadone L 2015 · 3.65 FIP	29	SU	3.65	22.6%	8.9%	2.4%	.329	3.74	22.6%	13.3%	33	+0.09	2.97	141	61
Yuki Matsui L 2024 · 3.63 FIP	28	SU	3.63	26.8%	8.9%	3.0%	.242	4.25	23.9%	12.6%	140	+0.62	3.63	203	61
Justin Marks L 2017 · 3.83 FIP	29	SW	3.83	18.7%	11.0%	1.7%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	324	61

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	56	23.3%	11.9%	1.01	4.14
Brandon Workman ('21)	1.6	55	24.3%	11.1%	1.04	4.02
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Bill Kelso ('64-'68, 1 WAR*)	1.0	67	23.1%*	11.6%*	1.09*	4.19*
Jose Veras ('14)	2.1	60	24.0%	12.1%	0.96	3.91
Horacio Pina ('68-'78, 2 WAR*)	2.2	62	20.7%*	11.2%*	0.84*	4.01*
Jeff Parrett ('86-'96, 6 WAR*)	3.6	72	24.8%*	11.0%*	1.02*	4.07*