Justin Wilson
P
Boston Red Sox
Age 38
LHP
6'2" / 205 lbs
MLB
peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 53 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8392vR 101
ERA3.94
FIP3.75
K%26.2%
BB%7.5%
K-BB%18.7%
ROS IP54
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5094.5
Whiff%
p9031.9%
K%
p7927.5%
xwOBA vs
p660.296
FB+2.4 (46%)
SL (33%)
CT-1.1 (16%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 27 | MLB | New York Yankees | 74 | 0 | 61 | 244 | 66 | 20 | 3 | 0% | 0.8 | 27.0% | 8.2% | 18.9% | 1.1% | 3.10 | 2.48 | +1.5 |
| 2015 | 27 | MLB | New York Yankees | 74 | 0 | 61 | 244 | 66 | 20 | 3 | 0% | 0.8 | 27.0% | 8.2% | 18.9% | 1.2% | 3.10 | 2.56 | +1.4 |
| 2016 | 28 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 66 | 0 | 59 | 251 | 65 | 15 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 25.9% | 6.0% | 19.9% | 2.6% | 4.14 | 3.10 | +1.0 |
| 2016 | 28 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 66 | 0 | 59 | 251 | 65 | 15 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 25.9% | 6.0% | 19.9% | 2.4% | 4.14 | 2.98 | +1.1 |
| 2017 | 29 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 65 | 0 | 58 | 248 | 80 | 34 | 5 | 0% | 0.9 | 32.3% | 13.7% | 18.5% | 2.0% | 3.41 | 3.19 | +0.9 |
| 2017 | 29 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 65 | 0 | 58 | 248 | 80 | 34 | 5 | 0% | 0.9 | 32.3% | 13.7% | 18.5% | 2.0% | 3.41 | 3.22 | +0.9 |
| 2018 | 30 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 71 | 0 | 55 | 236 | 69 | 32 | 5 | 0% | 0.8 | 29.2% | 13.6% | 15.7% | 2.1% | 3.46 | 3.48 | +0.7 |
| 2018 | 30 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 71 | 0 | 55 | 236 | 69 | 32 | 5 | 0% | 0.8 | 29.2% | 13.6% | 15.7% | 2.1% | 3.46 | 3.52 | +0.7 |
| 2019 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 2 | 41 | 175 | 48 | 18 | 4 | 4% | 0.9 | 26.5% | 10.8% | 15.7% | 2.4% | 2.63 | 3.56 | +0.5 |
| 2019 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 2 | 41 | 175 | 48 | 18 | 4 | 4% | 0.9 | 27.4% | 10.3% | 17.1% | 2.3% | 2.63 | 3.34 | +0.6 |
| 2020 | 32 | MLB | New York Mets | 23 | 0 | 20 | 86 | 23 | 8 | 1 | 0% | 0.9 | 26.7% | 9.3% | 17.4% | 1.2% | 3.66 | 2.66 | +0.4 |
| 2020 | 32 | MLB | New York Mets | 23 | 0 | 20 | 86 | 23 | 8 | 1 | 0% | 0.9 | 26.7% | 9.3% | 17.4% | 1.2% | 3.66 | 2.64 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 37 | 160 | 31 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 0.8 | 19.5% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 3.8% | 4.86 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 37 | 160 | 31 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 0.8 | 19.4% | 11.2% | 8.1% | 3.8% | 4.86 | 4.99 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 34 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 5 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.7 | 53.8% | 0.0% | 53.8% | 0.0% | 2.45 | -1.45 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 34 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 5 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.7 | 53.8% | 0.0% | 53.8% | 0.0% | 2.45 | -0.72 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 35 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 0 | 9 | 37 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 32.4% | 2.7% | 29.7% | 5.4% | 1.93 | 3.67 | — |
| 2023 | 35 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 0 | 9 | 37 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 32.4% | 2.7% | 29.7% | 5.4% | 1.93 | 3.64 | — |
| 2024 | 36 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 60 | 0 | 47 | 209 | 51 | 12 | 10 | 0% | 0.8 | 24.4% | 5.7% | 18.7% | 4.5% | 5.59 | 4.26 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 36 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 60 | 0 | 47 | 209 | 51 | 12 | 10 | 0% | 0.8 | 24.4% | 5.7% | 18.7% | 4.8% | 5.59 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 37 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 61 | 0 | 48 | 207 | 57 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 0.8 | 27.5% | 8.2% | 19.3% | 1.4% | 3.35 | 2.60 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 37 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 61 | 0 | 48 | 207 | 57 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 0.8 | 27.5% | 8.2% | 19.3% | 1.4% | 3.35 | 2.60 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 38 | MLB | BOS | 51 | 0 | 54 | 226 | 59 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.2% | 7.5% | 18.7% | 2.8% | 3.94 | 3.75 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 39 | MLB | BOS | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 49 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.1% | 8.2% | 16.8% | 3.2% | 4.09 | 4.19 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 40 | MLB | BOS | 38 | 0 | 40 | 167 | 40 | 15 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 8.9% | 15.0% | 3.7% | 4.41 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 39 | MLB | BOS | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 49 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.1% | 8.2% | 16.8% | 3.2% | 4.09 | 4.19 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 40 | MLB | BOS | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 40 | 15 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 8.9% | 15.0% | 3.7% | 4.41 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 594 | 0 | 509 | 2170 | 580 | 203 | 55 | 0% | 0.9 | 26.7% | 9.3% | 17.4% | 2.6% | 3.86 | 3.43 | +11.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 233 | 0 | 200 | 852 | 228 | 80 | 22 | 0% | 0.9 | 26.7% | 9.3% | 17.4% | 2.6% | 3.86 | 3.43 | +4.6 | ||
| Career | — | 527 | 2 | 438 | 1866 | 508 | 175 | 45 | 0% | 0.8 | 27.2% | 9.4% | 17.8% | 2.4% | 3.72 | 3.31 | +10.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 241 | 1 | 200 | 852 | 232 | 80 | 21 | 0% | 0.8 | 27.2% | 9.4% | 17.8% | 2.4% | 3.72 | 3.31 | +4.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Justin Wilson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.75 | 26.2% | 7.5% | 2.8% | — | 4.39 | 24.5% | 16.0% | 86 | +0.64 | — | — | — |
| Neal Cotts L 2025 · 3.24 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.24 | 25.5% | 8.0% | 2.3% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 156 | 77 |
| Wilfredo Ledezma L 2024 · 3.47 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.47 | 26.7% | 8.3% | 2.9% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 109 | 74 |
| Jorge De La Rosa L 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.99 | 19.3% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 405 | 68 |
| Brooks Raley L 2026 · 2.81 FIP | 38 | SU | 2.81 | 24.3% | 8.1% | 1.4% | .255 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 238 | 64 |
| Ryan Madson R 2025 · 3.65 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.65 | 23.4% | 6.1% | 3.2% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.42 | 240 | 41 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.73 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .179 | 4.04 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.31 | 3.72 | 164 | 40 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 38 |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 3.04 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.04 | 23.2% | 13.3% | 0.4% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 102 | 32 |
| Peter Moylan R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.61 | 18.9% | 9.1% | 1.8% | .211 | 4.77 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 28 | +1.16 | 3.10 | 174 | 32 |
| Joe Blanton R 2024 · 4.94 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.94 | 20.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 240 | 31 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2024 · 4.56 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.56 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 3.5% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 119 | 30 |
| Ervin Santana R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.38 | 18.8% | 7.6% | 3.5% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 720 | 30 |
| Matt Belisle R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.59 | 15.4% | 6.2% | 3.7% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 174 | 27 |
| Ronald Belisario R 2024 · 4.74 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.74 | 12.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 126 | 27 |
| Zack Segovia R 2024 · 4.36 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.36 | 17.6% | 13.6% | 1.9% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 144 | 27 |
| Erubiel Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.66 | 13.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | .388 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 119 | 26 |
| Hector Navarro R 2025 · 3.41 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.41 | 11.5% | 5.6% | 1.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 126 | 23 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.08 | 16.8% | 15.2% | 0.9% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 219 | 22 |
| Chien-Ming Wang R 2024 · 4.52 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.52 | 13.0% | 7.8% | 2.8% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 183 | 22 |
| Brad Ziegler R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.88 | 16.4% | 6.2% | 2.5% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.61 | 257 | 20 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 46 | 25.2% | 8.1% | 1.24 | 4.12 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Colin Poche ('24) | 4 | 52 | 27.0% | 9.2% | 1.34 | 3.63 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Mike Mayers ('23) | 5 | 47 | 24.3% | 7.8% | 1.50 | 4.47 |