Justin Wilson
P
Boston Red Sox
+0.4
WAR
Age 38
LHP
6'2" / 205 lbs
MLB
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.06
FIP3.78
xFIP3.55
SIERA3.36
K%25.6%
BB%7.9%
K-BB%17.7%
IP34
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
STUF5555
CTRL5050
CMD5555
K†6060
FB Velo
p5094.5
Whiff%
p9031.9%
K%
p7927.5%
xwOBA vs
p660.296
FB+2.4 (46%)
SL (33%)
CT-1.1 (16%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 27 | MLB | New York Yankees | 74 | 0 | 61 | 244 | 66 | 20 | 3 | 27.0% | 8.2% | 1.0% | 3.10 | 2.43 | +1.7 |
| 2016 | 28 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 66 | 0 | 59 | 251 | 65 | 15 | 6 | 25.9% | 6.0% | 2.4% | 4.14 | 2.99 | +1.3 |
| 2017 | 29 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 65 | 0 | 58 | 248 | 80 | 34 | 5 | 32.3% | 13.7% | 1.9% | 3.41 | 3.18 | +1.2 |
| 2018 | 30 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 71 | 0 | 55 | 236 | 69 | 32 | 5 | 29.2% | 13.6% | 2.3% | 3.46 | 3.59 | +0.8 |
| 2019 | 31 | MLB | New York Mets | 47 | 2 | 41 | 175 | 48 | 18 | 4 | 26.5% | 10.8% | 2.3% | 2.63 | 3.49 | +0.7 |
| 2020 | 32 | MLB | New York Mets | 23 | 0 | 20 | 86 | 23 | 8 | 1 | 26.7% | 9.3% | 1.2% | 3.66 | 2.65 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 33 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 45 | 0 | 37 | 160 | 31 | 18 | 6 | 19.5% | 10.7% | 3.7% | 4.86 | 4.87 | +0.0 |
| 2022 | 34 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 5 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.45 | — | — |
| 2023 | 35 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 10 | 0 | 9 | 37 | 12 | 1 | 2 | — | — | — | 1.93 | — | — |
| 2024 | 36 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 60 | 0 | 47 | 209 | 51 | 12 | 10 | 24.4% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 5.59 | 4.05 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 37 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 61 | 0 | 48 | 207 | 57 | 17 | 3 | 27.5% | 8.2% | 1.4% | 3.35 | 2.59 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 38 | MLB | BOS | 34 | — | 34 | 141 | 36 | 11 | 4 | 25.8% | 7.9% | 2.7% | 4.04 | 3.80 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 39 | MLB | BOS | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 32 | 11 | 4 | 24.9% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 4.01 | 3.99 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 40 | MLB | BOS | 28 | — | 28 | 119 | 29 | 10 | 4 | 24.1% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 4.11 | 4.18 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 527 | 2 | 438 | 1866 | 508 | 175 | 43 | 27.2% | 9.4% | 2.3% | 3.72 | 3.27 | +10.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 241 | 1 | 200 | 852 | 232 | 80 | 20 | 27.2% | 9.4% | 2.3% | 3.72 | 3.27 | +4.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Justin Wilson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.80 | 25.8% | 7.9% | 2.7% | — | 4.08 | 24.5% | 16.2% | 59 | +0.28 | — | — | — |
| Neal Cotts L 2025 · 3.21 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.21 | 25.5% | 8.0% | 2.3% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 156 | 78 |
| Wilfredo Ledezma L 2024 · 3.38 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.38 | 26.7% | 8.3% | 2.7% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.57 | 109 | 74 |
| Jorge De La Rosa L 2025 · 4.12 FIP | 37 | SW | 4.12 | 19.3% | 9.5% | 2.6% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 405 | 68 |
| Scott Kazmir L 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 37 | SW | 4.57 | 19.2% | 8.8% | 3.6% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 395 | 59 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2024 · 4.42 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.42 | 11.7% | 8.4% | 2.3% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 138 | 48 |
| Jonathan Sánchez L 2024 · 4.73 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.73 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.73 | 109 | 42 |
| Wandy Rodriguez L 2024 · 3.85 FIP | 36 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 101 | 41 |
| Horacio Ramirez L 2025 · 4.06 FIP | 37 | SW | 4.06 | 8.6% | 4.5% | 2.0% | .306 | 4.64 | 5.7% | -0.3% | 35 | +0.58 | 3.35 | 199 | 40 |
| Ryan Madson R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 37 | SW | 3.47 | 23.4% | 6.1% | 2.9% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.43 | 240 | 39 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.55 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 2.6% | .179 | 4.12 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.57 | 3.55 | 164 | 39 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2025 · 4.94 FIP | 37 | SP- | 4.94 | 19.6% | 8.1% | 4.5% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.49 | 408 | 38 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.17 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | .272 | 3.38 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.79 | 2.67 | 295 | 38 |
| Logan Ondrusek R 2024 · 4.34 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.34 | 19.2% | 7.3% | 3.5% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 138 | 34 |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 3.07 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.07 | 23.2% | 13.3% | 0.4% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 102 | 34 |
| Juan Antonio Pena L 2025 · 4.17 FIP | 37 | SP- | 4.17 | 13.6% | 9.9% | 1.8% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 149 | 33 |
| Peter Moylan R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.58 | 18.9% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .211 | 4.94 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 28 | +1.36 | 3.11 | 174 | 32 |
| Mauricio Lara L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 38 | SP- | 3.70 | 12.0% | 6.3% | 1.5% | .301 | 4.93 | 12.3% | 5.5% | 111 | +1.23 | 3.59 | 444 | 32 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.65 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 3.6% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 119 | 31 |
| Ervin Santana R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.32 | 18.8% | 7.6% | 3.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 720 | 31 |
| Adam Wainwright R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.99 | 20.6% | 5.7% | 3.5% | .245 | 3.91 | 17.8% | 11.2% | 499 | -0.08 | 2.03 | 1,127 | 29 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.