Justin Wilson — OGILVIE

Justin Wilson P Boston Red Sox

Age 38 LHP 6'2" / 205 lbs MLB peak 0.5 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8593vR 101

ERA3.94

FIP3.75

K%26.2%

BB%7.5%

K-BB%18.7%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5094.5

Whiff%

p9031.9%

p7927.5%

xwOBA vs

p660.296

FB+2.4 (46%)

SL (33%)

CT-1.1 (16%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	27	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	74	0	61	244	66	20	3	0%	0.8	27.0%	8.2%	18.9%	1.2%	3.10	2.49	+1.5
2015	27	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	74	0	61	244	66	20	3	0%	0.8	27.0%	8.2%	18.9%	1.2%	3.10	2.56	+1.5
2016	28	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	66	0	59	251	65	15	6	0%	0.9	25.9%	6.0%	19.9%	2.5%	4.14	3.04	+1.1
2016	28	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	66	0	59	251	65	15	6	0%	0.9	25.9%	6.0%	19.9%	2.4%	4.14	2.98	+1.1
2017	29	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	65	0	58	248	80	34	5	0%	0.9	32.3%	13.7%	18.5%	2.1%	3.41	3.26	+0.9
2017	29	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	65	0	58	248	80	34	5	0%	0.9	32.3%	13.7%	18.5%	2.0%	3.41	3.22	+0.9
2018	30	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	71	0	55	236	69	32	5	0%	0.8	29.2%	13.6%	15.7%	2.2%	3.46	3.56	+0.6
2018	30	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	71	0	55	236	69	32	5	0%	0.8	29.2%	13.6%	15.7%	2.1%	3.46	3.52	+0.7
2019	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	2	41	175	48	18	4	4%	0.9	26.5%	10.8%	15.7%	2.4%	2.63	3.56	+0.5
2019	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	2	41	175	48	18	4	4%	0.9	27.4%	10.3%	17.1%	2.3%	2.63	3.34	+0.6
2020	32	MLB MLE	New York Mets	23	0	20	86	23	8	1	0%	0.9	26.7%	9.3%	17.4%	1.2%	3.66	2.66	+0.4
2020	32	MLB RAW	New York Mets	23	0	20	86	23	8	1	0%	0.9	26.7%	9.3%	17.4%	1.2%	3.66	2.64	+0.4
2021	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	37	160	31	18	6	0%	0.8	19.5%	10.7%	8.7%	3.7%	4.86	4.86	-0.1
2021	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	37	160	31	18	6	0%	0.8	19.4%	11.2%	8.1%	3.8%	4.86	4.99	-0.2
2022	34	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	5	0	4	13	7	0	0	0%	0.7	53.8%	0.0%	53.8%	0.0%	2.45	-1.45	+0.3
2022	34	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	5	0	4	13	7	0	0	0%	0.7	53.8%	0.0%	53.8%	0.0%	2.45	-0.72	+0.2
2023	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	0	9	37	12	1	2	0%	0.9	32.4%	2.7%	29.7%	5.4%	1.93	3.67	—
2023	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	0	9	37	12	1	2	0%	0.9	32.4%	2.7%	29.7%	5.4%	1.93	3.67	—
2023	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	0	9	37	12	1	2	0%	0.9	32.4%	2.7%	29.7%	5.4%	1.93	3.64	—
2024	36	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	60	0	47	209	51	12	10	0%	0.8	24.4%	5.7%	18.7%	4.4%	5.59	4.20	+0.2
2024	36	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	60	0	47	209	51	12	10	0%	0.8	24.4%	5.7%	18.7%	4.4%	5.59	4.20	+0.2
2024	36	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	60	0	47	209	51	12	10	0%	0.8	24.4%	5.7%	18.7%	4.8%	5.59	4.47	+0.0
2025	37	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	61	0	48	207	57	17	3	0%	0.8	27.5%	8.2%	19.3%	1.5%	3.35	2.63	+1.1
2025	37	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	61	0	48	207	57	17	3	0%	0.8	27.5%	8.2%	19.3%	1.5%	3.35	2.63	+1.1
2025	37	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	61	0	48	207	57	17	3	0%	0.8	27.5%	8.2%	19.3%	1.4%	3.35	2.60	+1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			512	0	424	1809	491	172	43	0%	0.8	27.1%	9.5%	17.6%	2.4%	3.78	3.32	+6.2
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	38	MLB	BOS	4	0	4	17	4	1	0	0%	1.0	26.2%	7.5%	18.7%	2.8%	3.94	3.75	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	39	MLB MLE	BOS	44	0	46	194	49	16	6	0%	1.0	25.1%	8.2%	16.8%	3.2%	4.09	4.19	+0.2
2028	40	MLB MLE	BOS	38	0	40	167	40	15	6	0%	1.0	23.9%	8.9%	15.0%	3.7%	4.41	4.62	-0.0
2027	39	MLB CTX	BOS	44	0	46	194	49	16	6	0%	1.0	25.1%	8.2%	16.8%	3.2%	4.09	4.19	+0.2
2028	40	MLB CTX	BOS	38	0	40	169	40	15	6	0%	1.1	23.9%	8.9%	15.0%	3.7%	4.41	4.62	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		594	0	509	2170	580	203	55	0%	0.9	26.7%	9.3%	17.4%	2.6%	3.86	3.43	+6.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		233	0	200	852	228	80	22	0%	0.9	26.7%	9.3%	17.4%	2.6%	3.86	3.43	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		527	2	438	1866	508	175	45	0%	0.8	27.2%	9.4%	17.8%	2.4%	3.72	3.32	+6.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		241	1	200	852	232	80	21	0%	0.8	27.2%	9.4%	17.8%	2.4%	3.72	3.32	+2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Wilson (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.75	26.2%	7.5%	2.8%	—	4.39	24.5%	16.0%	86	+0.64	—	—	—
Neal Cotts L 2017 · 3.21 FIP	37	SU	3.21	25.5%	8.0%	2.3%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	156	79
Wilfredo Ledezma L 2017 · 3.35 FIP	36	SU	3.35	26.7%	8.3%	2.7%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	2.58	109	74
Jorge De La Rosa L 2018 · 4.07 FIP	37	SU	4.07	19.3%	9.5%	2.6%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.86	405	60
Ryan Madson R 2018 · 3.49 FIP	37	SU	3.49	23.4%	6.1%	2.9%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	1.42	240	41
Joaquín Benoit R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	38	SU	3.58	24.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.179	4.11	23.5%	12.9%	98	+0.53	3.58	164	40
Fernando Rodney R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	38	SU	4.37	20.9%	9.4%	3.4%	.272	3.37	26.2%	15.2%	185	-1.00	2.69	295	38
Peter Moylan R 2017 · 3.63 FIP	38	SU	3.63	18.9%	9.1%	1.8%	.211	4.77	17.8%	6.2%	28	+1.14	3.11	174	33
Manny Acosta R 2019 · 3.08 FIP	38	SU	3.08	23.2%	13.3%	0.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	102	32
Joe Blanton R 2017 · 4.94 FIP	36	SU	4.94	20.0%	5.6%	5.1%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	240	31
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	30
Ervin Santana R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	38	SU	4.40	18.8%	7.6%	3.5%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	720	30
Matt Belisle R 2018 · 4.60 FIP	38	SU	4.60	15.4%	6.2%	3.7%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	2.51	174	28
Ronald Belisario R 2019 · 4.16 FIP	36	SU	4.16	12.7%	3.9%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	2.10	126	28
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	27
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	38	SU	3.51	13.3%	2.5%	2.2%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	119	26
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	23
Santiago Casilla R 2018 · 4.14 FIP	38	SU	4.14	16.8%	15.2%	1.0%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	219	23
Chien-Ming Wang R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	36	SU	4.53	13.0%	7.8%	2.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.23	183	22
Luis Ayala R 2016 · 3.03 FIP	38	SU	3.03	10.9%	4.5%	0.5%	.320	4.00	15.9%	4.2%	14	+0.97	3.03	119	20
Brad Ziegler R 2018 · 4.03 FIP	38	SU	4.03	16.4%	6.2%	2.8%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	2.63	257	20

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	46	25.2%	8.1%	1.24	4.12
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Blake Parker ('21)	1.2	60	26.6%	7.3%	1.40	3.36
Adbert Alzolay ('23)	1.1	70	26.1%	7.0%	1.32	3.84
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97