Rio Gomez
P
Worcester Red Sox
+0.4
WAR
Age 31
LHP
6'0" / 190 lbs
AAA
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.53
FIP4.53
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.1%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%13.1%
IP71
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 22 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | 13 | 1 | 27 | 115 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 14.8% | 5.4% | 0.0% | 1.98 | 2.54 | +0.7 |
| 2018 | 23 | A | Greenville Drive | 7 | 0 | 8 | 36 | 10 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | 3.24 | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | 39 | 0 | 70 | 282 | 75 | 23 | 8 | 20.1% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 2.20 | 4.39 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 26 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 29 | 0 | 47 | 195 | 60 | 13 | 4 | 25.2% | 8.2% | 2.6% | 3.64 | 3.42 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 27 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 24 | 2 | 33 | 153 | 41 | 16 | 8 | 21.7% | 11.5% | 6.3% | 6.55 | 6.16 | -0.5 |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 26 | 13 | 76 | 345 | 88 | 43 | 14 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 4.5% | 4.95 | 5.39 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 13 | 13 | 71 | 300 | 69 | 30 | 9 | 23.1% | 10.0% | 3.1% | 4.53 | 4.53 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 68 | 288 | 66 | 29 | 9 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 4.56 | 4.59 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 65 | 275 | 62 | 28 | 9 | 22.6% | 10.2% | 3.3% | 4.62 | 4.67 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 11 | 11 | 62 | 261 | 58 | 27 | 9 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 4.70 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 35 | MLB | BOS | 58 | — | 58 | 246 | 54 | 26 | 9 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 3.5% | 4.80 | 4.87 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 36 | MLB | BOS | 54 | — | 54 | 230 | 49 | 25 | 8 | 21.5% | 10.8% | 3.6% | 4.92 | 5.01 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 138 | 16 | 262 | 1126 | 242 | 114 | 41 | 21.5% | 10.1% | 3.7% | 3.82 | 4.59 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 105 | 12 | 200 | 861 | 185 | 87 | 31 | 21.5% | 10.1% | 3.7% | 3.82 | 4.59 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Rio Gomez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.53 | 23.1% | 10.0% | 3.1% | — | 4.67 | 22.6% | 12.4% | 195 | +0.14 | — | — | — |
| Brandon Mann L 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 3.99 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.74 | 3.59 | 190 | 86 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.70 | 25.3% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 223 | 85 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2024 · 4.68 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.68 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 175 | 84 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2024 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 126 | 83 |
| Jeremy Bleich L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.69 | 20.3% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .296 | 4.42 | 20.1% | 13.1% | 33 | +0.73 | 3.20 | 241 | 81 |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.68 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 2.5% | .281 | 2.38 | 23.3% | 21.0% | 44 | -1.30 | 2.38 | 306 | 79 |
| Edward Paredes L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.80 | 22.7% | 11.9% | 2.0% | .351 | 5.13 | 21.5% | 14.2% | 18 | +1.33 | 2.37 | 130 | 78 |
| Brian Moran L 2025 · 3.39 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.39 | 26.9% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .269 | 2.98 | 25.5% | 18.5% | 99 | -0.41 | 1.81 | 421 | 78 |
| Tony Watson L 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.48 | 21.3% | 7.0% | 4.2% | .227 | 3.50 | 21.4% | 16.9% | 187 | -0.98 | 2.22 | 405 | 78 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.70 | 21.6% | 6.2% | 3.0% | .311 | 4.62 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 85 | +0.92 | 3.70 | 181 | 75 |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 16.6% | 8.1% | 2.1% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 244 | 75 |
| Luke Westphal L 2027 · 4.68 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.68 | 22.7% | 13.1% | 3.4% | .321 | 4.72 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 95 | +0.04 | 2.97 | 294 | 75 |
| Phil Coke L 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.85 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.1% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.81 | 3.04 | 101 | 75 |
| Marlon Arias L 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .330 | 3.73 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.57 | 3.73 | 154 | 75 |
| Jake McGee L 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.47 | 20.7% | 6.6% | 4.2% | .316 | 3.55 | 25.6% | 21.2% | 121 | -0.92 | 1.36 | 350 | 74 |
| Chris Narveson L 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.81 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | .333 | 4.63 | 14.1% | 4.5% | 193 | -0.18 | 4.62 | 249 | 74 |
| Adam Loewen L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.84 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 1.5% | .287 | 3.62 | 23.2% | 7.3% | 98 | -0.22 | 2.96 | 176 | 74 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.27 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 124 | 73 |
| David Huff L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.07 | 19.5% | 4.9% | 3.6% | .384 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 158 | 73 |
| Justin Wilson L 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.49 | 26.5% | 10.8% | 2.3% | .290 | 4.06 | 22.1% | 12.0% | 54 | +0.57 | 2.43 | 420 | 73 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.