Rio Gomez
P
Worcester Red Sox
Age 31
LHP
6'0" / 190 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 49 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103112vR 122
ERA4.52
FIP4.52
K%23.1%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%13.1%
ROS IP50
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 49 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 22 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | 13 | 1 | 27 | 115 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 8% | 2.1 | 14.8% | 5.4% | 9.3% | 0.0% | 1.98 | 2.54 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | 13 | 1 | 27 | 115 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 8% | 2.1 | 21.7% | 4.3% | 17.4% | 0.0% | 1.98 | 1.82 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A | Greenville Drive | 7 | 0 | 8 | 36 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 27.8% | 5.6% | 22.2% | 5.6% | 3.24 | 4.51 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A | Greenville Drive | 7 | 0 | 8 | 36 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 27.8% | 5.6% | 22.2% | 5.6% | 3.24 | 4.54 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 70 | 282 | 75 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 1.8 | 20.1% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 3.1% | 2.20 | 4.28 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 70 | 282 | 75 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 1.8 | 26.6% | 8.2% | 18.4% | 2.8% | 2.20 | 3.43 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 0 | 47 | 195 | 60 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.6 | 25.2% | 8.2% | 17.0% | 2.8% | 3.64 | 3.55 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 0 | 47 | 195 | 60 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.6 | 30.8% | 6.7% | 24.1% | 2.1% | 3.64 | 2.48 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 24 | 2 | 33 | 153 | 41 | 16 | 8 | 8% | 1.4 | 21.7% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 6.2% | 6.55 | 6.14 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 24 | 2 | 33 | 153 | 41 | 16 | 8 | 8% | 1.4 | 26.8% | 10.5% | 16.3% | 5.2% | 6.55 | 5.22 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 13 | 76 | 345 | 88 | 43 | 14 | 50% | 2.9 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 8.7% | 4.4% | 4.95 | 5.34 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 13 | 76 | 345 | 88 | 43 | 14 | 50% | 2.9 | 25.5% | 12.5% | 13.0% | 4.1% | 4.95 | 4.87 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 47 | 0 | 50 | 210 | 48 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 10.0% | 13.1% | 3.1% | 4.52 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 44 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 12.3% | 3.4% | 4.64 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 40 | 0 | 42 | 178 | 40 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 3.6% | 4.81 | 4.95 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 16 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 12.3% | 3.4% | 4.64 | 4.73 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 22 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 3.6% | 4.81 | 4.95 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 38 | 0 | 40 | 170 | 38 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 3.5% | 4.74 | 4.48 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 189 | 90 | 30 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 3.5% | 4.74 | 4.48 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 138 | 16 | 262 | 1126 | 242 | 114 | 41 | 12% | 1.9 | 21.5% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 3.6% | 3.82 | 4.56 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 105 | 12 | 200 | 861 | 185 | 87 | 31 | 12% | 1.9 | 21.5% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 3.6% | 3.82 | 4.56 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Rio Gomez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.52 | 23.1% | 10.0% | 3.1% | — | 4.84 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 88 | +0.32 | — | — | — |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2024 · 4.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.83 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 175 | 82 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.73 | 25.3% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 223 | 79 |
| Edward Paredes L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.79 | 22.7% | 11.9% | 2.0% | .351 | 5.19 | 21.5% | 14.2% | 18 | +1.40 | 2.29 | 130 | 79 |
| Jeremy Bleich L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.70 | 20.3% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .296 | 4.51 | 20.1% | 13.1% | 33 | +0.81 | 3.21 | 241 | 78 |
| Phil Coke L 2028 · 4.00 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.00 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.96 | 3.04 | 101 | 76 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2025 · 4.48 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.48 | 23.7% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 172 | 76 |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.48 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 2.2% | .281 | 2.35 | 23.3% | 21.0% | 44 | -1.13 | 2.35 | 306 | 76 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.29 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 124 | 73 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.72 | 21.6% | 6.2% | 3.0% | .311 | 4.39 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 85 | +0.67 | 3.72 | 181 | 73 |
| Tony Watson L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.22 | 21.3% | 7.0% | 3.7% | .227 | 3.50 | 21.4% | 16.9% | 187 | -0.72 | 2.22 | 405 | 73 |
| Chris Narveson L 2028 · 4.83 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.83 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | .333 | 4.57 | 14.1% | 4.5% | 193 | -0.26 | 4.40 | 249 | 73 |
| Justin Wilson L 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.56 | 26.5% | 10.8% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.09 | 22.1% | 12.0% | 54 | +0.53 | 2.48 | 420 | 72 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.13 | 22.1% | 14.3% | 2.0% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 145 | 72 |
| Adam Loewen L 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.90 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 1.7% | .287 | 3.58 | 23.2% | 7.3% | 98 | -0.32 | 2.96 | 176 | 71 |
| Colt Hynes L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.85 | 22.3% | 4.8% | 3.7% | .353 | 3.52 | 14.1% | 9.5% | 56 | -0.33 | 3.44 | 152 | 71 |
| Josh Edgin L 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.36 | 29.2% | 9.2% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 113 | 71 |
| Jake McGee L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 20.7% | 6.6% | 3.4% | .316 | 3.48 | 25.6% | 21.2% | 121 | -0.56 | 1.52 | 350 | 71 |
| Tommy Layne L 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.42 | 20.3% | 9.6% | 1.5% | .266 | 4.27 | 19.4% | 10.0% | 90 | +0.85 | 1.32 | 182 | 70 |
| Craig Breslow L 2029 · 4.86 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.86 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 4.2% | .279 | 4.51 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 94 | -0.35 | 4.22 | 159 | 70 |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.99 | 16.6% | 8.1% | 2.3% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.09 | 244 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 46 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 1.30 | 4.65 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |