Mitch Farris
P
Los Angeles Angels
+0.6
WAR
Age 25
LHP
6'2" / 195 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 0.9 · 2028
ERA5.34
FIP4.46
xFIP5.05
SIERA4.88
K%22.9%
BB%10.7%
K-BB%12.2%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.9peak
2028
K†5050
FB Velo
p1090.3
Whiff%
p7128.6%
K%
p5122.4%
xwOBA vs
p100.361
CT+0.7 (18%)
CH (28%)
FB (41%)
SL-0.7 (13%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 5 | 2 | 17 | 65 | 21 | 6 | 1 | — | — | — | 2.16 | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Mississippi Braves | 25 | 19 | 108 | 442 | 131 | 43 | 7 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 1.8% | 3.08 | 3.49 | +2.2 |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 28 | 27 | 140 | 614 | 166 | 66 | 14 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 2.6% | 4.68 | 4.08 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 4 | 1 | 7 | 33 | 7 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.86 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | LAA | 21 | 21 | 116 | 488 | 100 | 52 | 15 | 20.6% | 10.7% | 3.1% | 5.46 | 4.83 | +0.6 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 123 | 521 | 107 | 54 | 16 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 5.37 | 4.55 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | LAA | 23 | 23 | 127 | 536 | 112 | 56 | 17 | 21.0% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 5.00 | 4.74 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | LAA | 24 | 24 | 130 | 549 | 116 | 56 | 17 | 21.1% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.81 | 4.71 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | LAA | 24 | 24 | 130 | 549 | 116 | 56 | 17 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 4.75 | 4.72 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | LAA | 23 | 23 | 127 | 537 | 111 | 54 | 17 | 20.6% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 4.76 | 4.78 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | LAA | 22 | 22 | 123 | 521 | 105 | 53 | 17 | 20.1% | 10.2% | 3.3% | 4.83 | 4.87 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | LAA | 22 | 22 | 119 | 503 | 98 | 52 | 17 | 19.5% | 10.4% | 3.3% | 4.92 | 4.98 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | LAA | 21 | 21 | 114 | 483 | 91 | 51 | 16 | 18.9% | 10.5% | 3.4% | 5.02 | 5.09 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | LAA | 20 | 20 | 109 | 461 | 84 | 49 | 16 | 18.2% | 10.7% | 3.5% | 5.14 | 5.22 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | LAA | 19 | 19 | 104 | 438 | 77 | 48 | 16 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 3.6% | 5.27 | 5.36 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | LAA | 18 | 18 | 98 | 413 | 69 | 46 | 15 | 16.8% | 11.1% | 3.7% | 5.41 | 5.51 | -0.3 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | LAA | 17 | 17 | 91 | 385 | 62 | 44 | 15 | 16.0% | 11.4% | 3.8% | 5.57 | 5.67 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 62 | 49 | 272 | 1154 | 270 | 127 | 26 | 23.4% | 11.0% | 2.2% | 3.87 | 3.75 | +4.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 36 | 200 | 849 | 199 | 93 | 19 | 23.4% | 11.0% | 2.2% | 3.87 | 3.75 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Mitch Farris (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.83 | 20.6% | 10.7% | 3.1% | — | 4.72 | 21.0% | 10.8% | 387 | -0.11 | — | — | — |
| Sammy Peralta L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.96 | 20.2% | 8.0% | 2.8% | .306 | 3.98 | 20.3% | 12.5% | 147 | +0.02 | 3.54 | 347 | 66 |
| Matt Moore L 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.14 | 21.9% | 7.8% | 3.5% | .323 | 4.53 | 19.7% | 11.3% | 475 | +0.39 | 2.83 | 845 | 66 |
| Nick Maronde L 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.82 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .359 | 3.62 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 48 | -0.20 | 3.62 | 133 | 65 |
| Nick Dombkowski L 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.00 | 16.7% | 11.9% | 3.3% | .273 | 5.89 | 16.9% | 6.7% | 89 | +0.89 | 3.67 | 331 | 64 |
| Patrick Monteverde L 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.48 | 19.9% | 10.9% | 3.1% | .267 | 5.77 | 17.9% | 9.3% | 216 | +1.29 | 3.88 | 455 | 64 |
| Christian MacLeod L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.87 | 19.2% | 12.8% | 1.4% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 236 | 63 |
| Cade Gibson L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 3.0% | .306 | 3.42 | 18.6% | 8.4% | 155 | -1.14 | 3.14 | 273 | 63 |
| Hunter Owen L 2024 · 4.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.14 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.14 | 197 | 63 |
| Kohl Drake L 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.20 | 23.5% | 10.3% | 3.2% | .295 | 5.86 | 16.6% | 9.5% | 17 | +1.66 | 3.32 | 248 | 63 |
| Brad Hand L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.96 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 2.4% | .326 | 2.69 | 32.9% | 25.0% | 241 | -1.27 | 0.84 | 577 | 62 |
| Walter Pennington L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.07 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 2.2% | .296 | 3.26 | 25.7% | 15.9% | 99 | -0.81 | 2.49 | 261 | 62 |
| Adam Wolf L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.91 | 19.4% | 10.6% | 2.0% | .292 | 4.19 | 16.8% | 5.9% | 109 | +0.28 | 3.91 | 383 | 62 |
| Avery Weems L 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.89 | 21.3% | 8.6% | 4.5% | .323 | 5.15 | 20.5% | 12.3% | 38 | +0.26 | 2.46 | 227 | 62 |
| Nick Sando L 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.16 | 20.6% | 12.7% | 2.2% | .251 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 154 | 62 |
| Sam Garcia L 2024 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.14 | 18.5% | 12.7% | 3.6% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.14 | 101 | 62 |
| Sam Howard L 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.46 | 17.0% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .323 | 4.20 | 27.7% | 15.6% | 136 | -0.26 | 3.45 | 686 | 61 |
| Jake McSteen L 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.14 | 16.8% | 7.3% | 4.6% | .322 | 5.19 | 19.2% | 12.5% | 172 | +0.05 | 2.22 | 286 | 61 |
| DL Hall L 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.46 | 19.9% | 12.6% | 2.6% | .307 | 3.68 | 17.4% | 6.4% | 39 | -0.78 | 3.57 | 487 | 61 |
| Charlie McDaniel L 2025 · 3.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.80 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.3% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 100 | 61 |
| Lael Lockhart L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.31 | 22.6% | 12.9% | 2.7% | .302 | 5.11 | 21.6% | 9.2% | 221 | +0.80 | 3.60 | 434 | 61 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 1.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2031
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.7M | +0.6 | $2M | +$2M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.8 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $3M | +0.9 | $4M | +$0.8M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $5M | +0.9 | $4M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $6M | +0.7 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $12M | $17M | +$5M | ||