Mitch Farris

P Los Angeles Angels

Age 26 LHP 6'2" / 195 lbs MLB

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX3 levels	25	19	108	3.08	2.71	29.6%	9.7%	—	K 23.3% · BB 10.7% · FIP 3.45
2025	24	MIX2 levels	28	27	140	4.68	3.44	27.0%	10.7%	3.4	K 22.6% · BB 11.6% · FIP 4.06
2026	25	MIX2 levels	42	3	82	4.28	4.77	23.7%	11.5%	-0.2	K 22.8% · BB 11.2% · FIP 4.78
2027PROJ	26	MLBLAA	46	0	48	4.72	4.88	22.3%	10.9%	-0.2
2028PROJ88% MLB	27	MLBLAA	55	0	58	4.77	4.85	22.2%	10.7%	-0.2
2029PROJ90% MLB	28	MLBLAA	46	0	48	4.83	4.89	22.1%	10.6%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.1 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%62

xwOBA vs27

FB Velo11

Form3.68 ERA (proj 4.72) · K 27.0% (proj 22.3%) · BB 12.7% (proj 10.9%) ▲ last 90d · 15 IP through Oct 27

CompsBen Holmes (age 26) · Kyle Ryan (age 26) · Mark Manfredi Sr. (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109117vR 125

ERA4.72

FIP4.88

K%22.3%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%11.3%

Proj IP56

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1191.7

Whiff%

p7228.8%

p6224.4%

xwOBA vs

p270.339

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	2	17	65	21	6	1	40%	3.3	32.3%	9.2%	23.1%	1.5%	2.16	2.39	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	2	17	65	21	6	1	40%	3.3	32.3%	9.2%	23.1%	1.5%	2.16	2.44	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	19	108	442	131	43	7	76%	4.3	23.3%	10.7%	12.7%	1.8%	3.08	3.45	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	19	108	442	131	43	7	76%	4.3	23.3%	10.7%	12.7%	1.8%	3.08	3.45	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	19	108	442	131	43	7	76%	4.3	29.6%	9.7%	19.9%	1.6%	3.08	2.71	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	27	140	614	166	66	14	96%	5.0	22.6%	11.6%	11.0%	2.5%	4.68	4.06	+2.2
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	27	140	614	166	66	14	96%	5.0	22.6%	11.6%	11.0%	2.5%	4.68	4.06	+2.2
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	27	140	614	166	66	14	96%	5.0	27.0%	10.7%	16.3%	2.3%	4.68	3.44	+3.4
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	3	82	355	84	41	14	7%	2.0	22.8%	11.2%	11.7%	4.0%	4.28	4.78	-0.2
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	3	82	355	84	41	14	7%	2.0	22.8%	11.2%	11.7%	4.0%	4.28	4.78	-0.2
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	3	82	355	84	41	14	7%	2.0	23.7%	11.5%	12.1%	3.9%	4.28	4.77	-0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			38	5	84	365	87	39	14	13%	2.2	23.8%	10.7%	13.2%	3.8%	4.80	4.58	-0.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	LAA	46	0	48	203	45	22	7	0%	1.0	22.3%	10.9%	11.3%	3.5%	4.72	4.88	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	LAA	63	0	66	279	62	30	10	0%	1.0	22.2%	10.7%	11.5%	3.5%	4.77	4.85	-0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	LAA	51	0	54	228	50	24	8	0%	1.1	22.1%	10.6%	11.5%	3.5%	4.83	4.89	-0.2
2030	29	MLB MLE	LAA	41	0	43	182	39	19	7	0%	1.1	21.5%	10.7%	10.8%	3.6%	4.93	5.02	-0.2
2031	30	MLB MLE	LAA	31	0	33	139	29	15	5	0%	1.1	20.8%	10.9%	9.9%	3.8%	5.09	5.21	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	LAA	55	0	58	245	54	26	8	0%	1.1	22.2%	10.7%	11.5%	3.5%	4.77	4.85	-0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	LAA	46	0	48	203	45	22	7	0%	1.0	22.1%	10.6%	11.5%	3.5%	4.83	4.89	-0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	LAA	37	0	39	165	35	18	6	0%	1.1	21.5%	10.7%	10.8%	3.6%	4.93	5.02	-0.2
2031	30	MLB CTX	LAA	29	0	30	127	26	14	5	0%	1.0	20.8%	10.9%	9.9%	3.8%	5.09	5.21	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		206	5	260	1108	249	119	41	2%	1.3	22.5%	10.7%	11.8%	3.7%	4.85	4.57	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		158	4	200	851	191	91	32	2%	1.3	22.5%	10.7%	11.8%	3.7%	4.85	4.57	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		100	51	347	1476	344	164	39	51%	3.5	23.3%	11.1%	12.2%	2.6%	3.97	3.98	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	29	200	851	198	95	22	51%	3.5	23.3%	11.1%	12.2%	2.6%	3.97	3.98	+1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASalt Lake Bees · 22 IPFIP 5.23 → 5.55 (+0.31)K% 21.6% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.65%	—	×0.860	18.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.40%	—	×0.900	12.06%
HR / BF /BF	4.12%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.54%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.23 → 5.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 116 IPFIP 3.19 → 3.96 (+0.77)K% 28.0% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.01%	—	×0.810	22.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.85%	—	×1.100	11.93%
HR / BF /BF	1.97%	÷1.028	×1.200	2.30%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 106).

Result: FIP 3.19 → 3.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Rome Emperors · 82 IPFIP 2.51 → 3.63 (+1.12)K% 28.4% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.35%	—	×0.770	21.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.62%	—	×1.150	8.77%
HR / BF /BF	1.52%	÷0.831	×1.250	2.29%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 66).

Result: FIP 2.51 → 3.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAugusta GreenJackets · 23 IPFIP 1.69 → 2.87 (+1.18)K% 38.5% → 28.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.54%	—	×0.740	28.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.58%	—	×1.180	17.21%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.010	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).

Result: FIP 1.69 → 2.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAugusta GreenJackets · 8 IPFIP 1.11 → 2.29 (+1.17)K% 41.2% → 30.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	41.18%	—	×0.740	30.47%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.76%	—	×1.180	13.88%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.976	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.11 → 2.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Braves · 9 IPFIP 3.78 → 5.60 (+1.82)K% 22.6% → 15.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.58%	—	×0.680	15.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.45%	—	×1.250	8.06%
HR / BF /BF	3.23%	÷0.893	×1.400	5.06%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 79).

Result: FIP 3.78 → 5.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mitch Farris (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.5%	—	4.91	22.0%	11.3%	163	+0.03	—	—	—
Ben Holmes L 2018 · 4.02 FIP	26	SW	4.02	19.1%	9.3%	2.5%	.264	5.57	19.7%	8.6%	61	+1.55	3.09	451	70
Kyle Ryan L 2018 · 4.57 FIP	26	SW	4.57	20.9%	7.4%	4.2%	.231	4.32	20.4%	11.2%	115	-0.25	2.86	489	69
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	68
Will Johnston L 2024 · 3.94 FIP	23	SP-	3.94	24.8%	11.6%	2.7%	.290	4.56	22.9%	7.5%	104	+0.62	3.94	195	68
Nate Fisher L 2022 · 4.36 FIP	26	SW	4.36	18.6%	10.0%	2.9%	.290	5.47	15.1%	6.0%	104	+1.11	1.42	229	67
Wesley Wright L 2010 · 4.85 FIP	25	SW	4.85	19.6%	8.8%	4.2%	.310	3.38	23.9%	16.5%	106	-1.47	3.03	375	67
Chris Narveson L 2009 · 4.01 FIP	27	SW	4.01	22.4%	7.3%	3.4%	.277	4.00	18.5%	10.0%	329	-0.01	4.00	625	66
Brian Duensing L 2009 · 3.98 FIP	26	SW	3.98	14.8%	8.4%	1.9%	.286	3.90	15.2%	9.3%	401	-0.08	2.57	799	66
Connor Oliver L 2024 · 4.34 FIP	23	SW	4.34	17.3%	12.1%	2.1%	.314	6.07	19.2%	3.4%	165	+1.73	4.34	244	66
Nick Dombkowski L 2024 · 4.92 FIP	25	SW	4.92	16.5%	10.9%	3.3%	.273	5.17	18.2%	10.6%	183	+0.25	3.71	425	65
Adam Scott L 2022 · 5.27 FIP	26	SW	5.27	21.1%	13.5%	4.1%	.317	4.65	16.1%	-1.2%	46	-0.62	4.17	315	65
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	65
Brandon Waddell L 2019 · 4.30 FIP	25	SW	4.30	21.1%	11.3%	2.8%	.344	3.62	20.1%	10.5%	53	-0.68	2.67	616	64
Tyler Alexander L 2019 · 5.56 FIP	27	SP-	5.56	21.7%	9.8%	5.6%	.289	5.27	15.7%	5.0%	26	-0.29	5.27	128	64
Kent Emanuel L 2018 · 3.96 FIP	26	SW	3.96	19.9%	6.9%	3.0%	.375	4.03	17.6%	11.8%	119	+0.07	3.03	650	64
Justin Steele L 2021 · 4.50 FIP	26	SW	4.50	23.6%	10.5%	3.8%	.232	2.99	24.5%	17.6%	427	-1.51	2.74	785	64
Pat Misch L 2008 · 5.05 FIP	26	SW	5.05	16.5%	5.7%	4.8%	.268	4.53	10.8%	5.4%	100	-0.52	3.50	265	64
Brian Burres L 2007 · 4.50 FIP	26	SW	4.50	17.2%	11.6%	2.5%	.328	4.71	11.3%	3.1%	209	+0.21	4.50	344	64
Nate Peterson L 2024 · 5.51 FIP	24	SP-	5.51	19.2%	11.4%	4.7%	.296	4.75	16.0%	3.7%	148	-0.76	4.27	315	64
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	48	22.4%	10.8%	1.40	4.83
José Ruiz ('25)	1.4	57	22.3%	10.4%	1.44	4.62
Scott Service ('04)	2.1	46	22.2%	9.9%	1.23	5.04
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*