Nate Peterson
P
Chattanooga Lookouts
+0.0
WAR
Age 26
LHP
5'9" / 180 lbs
AA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.84
FIP4.84
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.1%
BB%10.6%
K-BB%8.4%
IP76
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF3535
CTRL4545
CMD3535
K†4045
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 19 | 12 | 74 | 317 | 78 | 31 | 7 | 18.4% | 11.4% | 2.7% | 3.75 | 4.45 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 27 | 15 | 93 | 404 | 96 | 42 | 19 | 19.2% | 11.4% | 4.6% | 4.08 | 5.43 | -0.2 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 31 | 8 | 74 | 326 | 59 | 34 | 5 | 14.3% | 11.5% | 1.8% | 4.00 | 4.32 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 2 | 2 | 9 | 37 | 10 | 6 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CIN | 14 | 14 | 76 | 323 | 56 | 39 | 10 | 17.3% | 12.1% | 3.0% | 5.18 | 5.18 | -0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 85 | 360 | 66 | 45 | 10 | 18.3% | 12.5% | 2.7% | 4.65 | 4.65 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 14 | 14 | 76 | 320 | 57 | 38 | 10 | 17.9% | 11.8% | 3.0% | 5.10 | 5.10 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 14 | 14 | 75 | 315 | 58 | 37 | 9 | 18.3% | 11.7% | 3.0% | 5.06 | 5.07 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 13 | 13 | 73 | 308 | 57 | 36 | 9 | 18.4% | 11.6% | 3.1% | 5.05 | 5.08 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 13 | 13 | 71 | 299 | 55 | 35 | 9 | 18.3% | 11.7% | 3.1% | 5.08 | 5.12 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 12 | 12 | 68 | 288 | 52 | 34 | 9 | 18.1% | 11.8% | 3.2% | 5.15 | 5.19 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 12 | 12 | 66 | 277 | 49 | 33 | 9 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 3.3% | 5.23 | 5.28 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 11 | 11 | 63 | 264 | 46 | 32 | 9 | 17.5% | 12.1% | 3.4% | 5.32 | 5.38 | -0.3 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 60 | — | 60 | 251 | 43 | 31 | 9 | 17.1% | 12.3% | 3.5% | 5.42 | 5.49 | -0.4 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | CIN | 56 | — | 56 | 237 | 40 | 30 | 8 | 16.8% | 12.6% | 3.6% | 5.53 | 5.61 | -0.4 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | CIN | 52 | — | 52 | 222 | 36 | 28 | 8 | 16.3% | 12.8% | 3.7% | 5.66 | 5.74 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 79 | 37 | 250 | 1084 | 193 | 126 | 33 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 3.0% | 3.82 | 4.72 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 63 | 30 | 200 | 867 | 154 | 101 | 26 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 3.0% | 3.82 | 4.72 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nate Peterson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.18 | 17.3% | 12.1% | 3.0% | — | 5.08 | 18.2% | 6.5% | 224 | -0.10 | — | — | — |
| Miguel Cienfuegos L 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.03 | 13.6% | 10.5% | 3.2% | .257 | 4.47 | 14.0% | 5.3% | 193 | -0.56 | 3.08 | 264 | 88 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.27 | 16.9% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.64 | 172 | 87 |
| Matt Purke L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.28 | 19.1% | 13.9% | 1.9% | .284 | 3.54 | 21.4% | 8.8% | 112 | -0.74 | 3.00 | 226 | 86 |
| Juan Grullon L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.67 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 134 | 86 |
| Irwin Delgado L 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.74 | 14.4% | 9.6% | 3.0% | .349 | 3.52 | 16.2% | 7.6% | 237 | -1.22 | 3.50 | 383 | 86 |
| Jack Snodgrass L 2027 · 4.67 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.67 | 12.6% | 10.7% | 2.3% | .278 | 5.04 | 15.7% | 5.6% | 45 | +0.37 | 4.67 | 118 | 85 |
| Stephen Peterson L 2027 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.60 | 13.0% | 9.5% | 2.5% | .284 | 3.04 | 17.3% | 6.3% | 55 | -1.56 | 3.04 | 120 | 85 |
| Tom Windle L 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.54 | 19.0% | 11.8% | 2.8% | .269 | 4.35 | 17.2% | 1.8% | 74 | -0.19 | 3.66 | 330 | 84 |
| James Paxton L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.31 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.9% | .288 | 2.87 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.44 | 2.40 | 924 | 84 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2029 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 83 |
| Joe Kemlage L 2024 · 5.32 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.32 | 17.6% | 11.7% | 4.0% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.41 | 128 | 83 |
| Justin Wright L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.43 | 14.7% | 13.7% | 1.5% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.28 | 109 | 82 |
| Will Gilbert L 2025 · 4.40 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.40 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 141 | 82 |
| Braulio Lara L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.98 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .367 | 5.21 | 18.9% | 3.9% | 67 | +1.23 | 3.98 | 118 | 81 |
| Rob Zastryzny L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.34 | 18.4% | 11.0% | 2.5% | .264 | 4.84 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 142 | +0.50 | 3.30 | 634 | 81 |
| Triston Polley L 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.15 | 17.8% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .331 | 4.53 | 17.4% | -0.3% | 22 | +0.38 | 4.15 | 151 | 81 |
| Gerardo Concepción L 2024 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.50 | 16.9% | 10.4% | 2.8% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.50 | 104 | 81 |
| Sean Keselica L 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.48 | 18.0% | 14.5% | 1.9% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.79 | 235 | 81 |
| Grant Watson L 2024 · 4.70 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.70 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.59 | 180 | 81 |
| Ben Holmes L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.05 | 19.1% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .264 | 5.57 | 19.7% | 8.6% | 61 | +1.52 | 3.09 | 451 | 80 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.