Nate Peterson
P
Chattanooga Lookouts
Age 26
LHP
5'9" / 180 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION60 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122131vR 140
ERA5.39
FIP5.39
K%14.8%
BB%12.8%
K-BB%2.0%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 130 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 12 | 74 | 317 | 78 | 31 | 7 | 63% | 3.9 | 18.4% | 11.4% | 7.0% | 2.6% | 3.75 | 4.40 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 12 | 74 | 317 | 78 | 31 | 7 | 63% | 3.9 | 24.6% | 9.8% | 14.8% | 2.2% | 3.75 | 3.48 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 27 | 15 | 93 | 404 | 96 | 42 | 19 | 56% | 3.4 | 19.2% | 11.4% | 7.8% | 4.0% | 4.08 | 5.14 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 27 | 15 | 93 | 404 | 96 | 42 | 19 | 56% | 3.4 | 23.8% | 10.4% | 13.4% | 4.7% | 4.08 | 5.05 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 8 | 74 | 326 | 59 | 34 | 5 | 26% | 2.4 | 14.3% | 11.5% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 4.00 | 4.16 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 8 | 74 | 326 | 59 | 34 | 5 | 26% | 2.4 | 18.1% | 10.4% | 7.7% | 1.5% | 4.00 | 3.76 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 16 | 10 | 60 | 263 | 50 | 32 | 4 | 62% | 3.8 | 17.2% | 11.2% | 6.0% | 1.1% | 3.90 | 3.67 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CIN | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 44 | 38 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 14.8% | 12.8% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 5.39 | 5.39 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CIN | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 14.8% | 12.8% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 5.39 | 5.39 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 130 | 559 | 94 | 70 | 12 | — | — | 16.8% | 12.5% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 4.70 | 4.60 | +1.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 14.8% | 12.8% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 5.39 | 5.01 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 46 | 37 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.7% | 12.5% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 5.31 | 5.33 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 46 | 35 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.1% | 12.4% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 5.29 | 5.33 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 44 | 34 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.2% | 12.5% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 5.34 | 5.41 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.7% | 12.5% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 5.31 | 5.33 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 27 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.1% | 12.4% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 5.29 | 5.33 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 31 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.2% | 12.5% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 5.34 | 5.41 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 106 | 0 | 112 | 474 | 76 | 59 | 14 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.0% | 12.5% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 5.32 | 4.98 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 189 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 135 | 105 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.0% | 12.5% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 5.32 | 4.98 | +1.0 | ||
| Career | — | 93 | 45 | 301 | 1310 | 228 | 149 | 32 | 48% | 3.2 | 17.4% | 11.4% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 3.94 | 4.42 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 62 | 30 | 200 | 869 | 151 | 99 | 21 | 48% | 3.2 | 17.4% | 11.4% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 3.94 | 4.42 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nate Peterson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.39 | 14.8% | 12.8% | 2.8% | — | 5.36 | 16.0% | 3.5% | 200 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Drake Britton L 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.82 | 11.1% | 9.7% | 2.6% | .268 | 4.93 | 8.0% | -2.2% | 41 | +0.11 | 4.82 | 125 | 84 |
| Irwin Delgado L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.49 | 14.4% | 9.6% | 2.5% | .349 | 3.45 | 16.2% | 7.6% | 237 | -1.04 | 3.42 | 383 | 83 |
| Alex Cornwell L 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.01 | 14.7% | 11.1% | 3.2% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 381 | 79 |
| Tommy Vail L 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.18 | 19.7% | 16.4% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 151 | 78 |
| Jack Snodgrass L 2027 · 4.77 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.77 | 12.6% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .278 | 5.20 | 15.7% | 5.6% | 45 | +0.43 | 4.77 | 118 | 78 |
| Justin Marks L 2027 · 4.56 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .323 | 3.78 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.78 | 3.75 | 324 | 76 |
| Houston Harding L 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.74 | 16.5% | 11.7% | 2.8% | .268 | 5.21 | 12.2% | 0.1% | 54 | +0.47 | 3.39 | 232 | 75 |
| Enrique Lechuga L 2029 · 4.64 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.64 | 10.0% | 10.5% | 1.9% | .354 | 3.90 | 10.5% | 4.4% | 59 | -0.74 | 3.90 | 137 | 75 |
| Chris Reed L 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.84 | 16.4% | 9.8% | 3.4% | .238 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.84 | 137 | 74 |
| Matt Walker L 2025 · 4.62 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.62 | 12.7% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 156 | 74 |
| Brian Holmes L 2026 · 6.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 6.01 | 15.5% | 11.7% | 5.0% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 205 | 73 |
| Cole Reynolds L 2024 · 5.26 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.26 | 17.3% | 16.9% | 2.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.81 | 108 | 72 |
| Scott DeCecco L 2024 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.58 | 14.5% | 11.5% | 2.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.58 | 125 | 71 |
| Liam Sullivan L 2024 · 5.49 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.49 | 20.1% | 15.8% | 3.8% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 121 | 71 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2024 · 4.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.93 | 116 | 71 |
| Luis Ysla L 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.88 | 18.9% | 13.9% | 2.9% | .325 | 6.13 | 18.0% | 3.6% | 86 | +1.25 | 3.58 | 378 | 71 |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2027 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.83 | 16.6% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .308 | 3.98 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 59 | -0.85 | 3.98 | 122 | 70 |
| Erik Tolman L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.73 | 18.7% | 15.4% | 2.3% | .244 | 4.30 | 28.7% | 10.4% | 20 | -0.43 | 3.08 | 135 | 70 |
| Connor Oliver L 2025 · 4.91 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.91 | 19.6% | 13.9% | 3.1% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 200 | 70 |
| Jaime Arias L 2025 · 5.35 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.35 | 15.2% | 10.5% | 4.0% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 243 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 67 | 15.7% | 12.6% | 1.14 | 5.33 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Wily Peralta ('22) | 7 | 71 | 16.1% | 9.8% | 1.22 | 4.66 |