Nate Peterson — OGILVIE

Nate Peterson P Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 26 LHP 5'9" / 180 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION88 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121129vR 137

ERA5.48

FIP5.48

K%14.8%

BB%12.9%

K-BB%1.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 94 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	12	74	317	78	31	7	63%	3.9	18.4%	11.4%	7.0%	2.7%	3.75	4.46	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	12	74	317	78	31	7	63%	3.9	18.4%	11.4%	7.0%	2.7%	3.75	4.46	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	12	74	317	78	31	7	63%	3.9	24.6%	9.8%	14.8%	2.2%	3.75	3.48	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	27	15	93	404	96	42	19	56%	3.4	19.2%	11.4%	7.8%	4.7%	4.08	5.51	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	27	15	93	404	96	42	19	56%	3.4	19.2%	11.4%	7.8%	4.7%	4.08	5.51	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Biloxi Shuckers	27	15	93	404	96	42	19	56%	3.4	23.8%	10.4%	13.4%	4.7%	4.08	5.05	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	8	74	326	59	34	5	26%	2.4	14.3%	11.5%	2.8%	1.7%	4.00	4.27	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	8	74	326	59	34	5	26%	2.4	14.3%	11.5%	2.8%	1.7%	4.00	4.27	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	8	74	326	59	34	5	26%	2.4	18.1%	10.4%	7.7%	1.5%	4.00	3.76	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	26	13	88	398	80	52	12	50%	3.4	17.5%	13.1%	4.4%	3.4%	5.34	5.16	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	26	13	88	398	80	52	12	50%	3.4	17.5%	13.1%	4.4%	3.4%	5.34	5.16	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	CIN	23	11	80	352	76	42	10	48%	3.5	21.6%	11.9%	9.7%	2.8%	4.52	4.35	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	CIN	3	2	8	46	4	10	2	67%	2.7	8.7%	21.7%	-13.0%	4.3%	13.50	7.51	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	CIN	1	1	6	27	4	3	1	100%	6.4	14.8%	12.9%	1.9%	3.0%	5.48	5.48	-0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	CIN	—	—	94	425	84	55	13	—	—	19.8%	13.1%	6.7%	3.0%	5.35	5.18	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CIN	81	0	85	357	55	44	11	0%	1.0	15.5%	12.4%	3.1%	3.0%	5.38	5.40	-0.8
2028	28	MLB MLE	CIN	78	0	82	347	55	42	11	0%	1.1	15.9%	12.2%	3.6%	3.1%	5.36	5.40	-0.8
2029	29	MLB MLE	CIN	75	0	78	331	59	38	11	0%	1.0	17.9%	11.4%	6.5%	3.3%	5.24	5.20	-0.6
2030	30	MLB MLE	CIN	70	0	74	311	55	36	11	0%	1.1	17.7%	11.7%	6.1%	3.5%	5.30	5.36	-0.7
2027	27	MLB CTX	CIN	30	0	32	135	21	17	4	0%	1.1	15.5%	12.4%	3.1%	3.0%	5.38	5.40	-0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	CIN	47	0	49	207	33	25	6	0%	1.0	15.9%	12.2%	3.6%	3.1%	5.36	5.40	-0.5
2029	29	MLB CTX	CIN	52	0	55	232	42	27	8	0%	1.1	17.9%	11.4%	6.5%	3.3%	5.24	5.20	-0.4
2030	30	MLB CTX	CIN	55	0	58	245	43	29	8	0%	1.1	17.7%	11.7%	6.1%	3.5%	5.30	5.36	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		185	0	194	819	139	97	27	0%	1.0	17.0%	11.9%	5.1%	3.2%	5.31	4.95	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	143	100	28	0%	1.1	17.0%	11.9%	5.1%	3.2%	5.31	4.95	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		103	48	329	1445	253	172	47	47%	3.2	17.5%	11.9%	5.6%	3.2%	4.32	4.90	-3.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	29	200	878	154	105	28	47%	3.2	17.5%	11.9%	5.6%	3.2%	4.32	4.90	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nate Peterson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.48	14.8%	12.9%	3.0%	—	5.34	16.4%	4.4%	245	-0.14	—	—	—
Drake Britton L 2015 · 4.69 FIP	26	SW	4.69	11.1%	9.7%	2.4%	.268	4.79	8.0%	-2.2%	41	+0.10	4.69	125	84
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	84
Braeden Fausnaught L 2023 · 4.77 FIP	24	SW	4.77	16.9%	16.4%	1.8%	.287	4.60	17.9%	9.7%	179	-0.17	4.43	242	78
Seth Lonsway L 2023 · 5.20 FIP	24	SP-	5.20	13.8%	15.3%	2.4%	.317	4.17	15.2%	4.4%	313	-1.03	3.35	498	78
Brian Holmes L 2017 · 5.91 FIP	26	SW	5.91	15.5%	11.7%	4.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	205	76
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	76
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	75
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	74
Enrique Lechuga L 2015 · 4.70 FIP	29	SP-	4.70	10.0%	10.5%	2.0%	.354	3.78	10.5%	4.4%	59	-0.92	3.78	137	74
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	74
Garrett Schoenle L 2023 · 5.38 FIP	25	SP-	5.38	20.5%	15.0%	3.9%	.307	3.59	20.9%	12.2%	172	-1.79	2.32	359	74
Matt Walker L 2023 · 4.73 FIP	25	SP-	4.73	12.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	156	73
Luis Ysla L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	26	SW	4.96	18.9%	13.9%	3.1%	.325	5.78	18.0%	3.6%	86	+0.82	3.75	378	71
Mitch Stallings L 2021 · 5.48 FIP	26	SW	5.48	16.8%	11.5%	4.3%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	2.18	108	71
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	71
Joe Adametz L 2023 · 5.89 FIP	23	SW	5.89	19.0%	15.0%	4.5%	.158	4.32	14.8%	5.5%	224	-1.57	3.66	248	70
Larson Kindreich L 2023 · 5.29 FIP	24	SW	5.29	21.5%	18.8%	3.0%	.269	4.68	23.0%	9.0%	79	-0.61	4.16	214	70
Scott DeCecco L 2015 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP-	4.55	14.5%	11.5%	2.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.55	125	70
Mason Green L 2023 · 5.28 FIP	24	SW	5.28	17.9%	16.7%	2.9%	.278	4.24	18.4%	6.3%	262	-1.04	3.68	448	70
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	78	16.4%	12.1%	1.22	5.35
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48