Justin Steele
P
Chicago Cubs
Age 31
LHP
6'2" / 205 lbs
MLB
Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027
peak 1.3 · 2027
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 96 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8998vR 107
ERA3.60
FIP3.84
K%22.9%
BB%6.2%
K-BB%16.8%
ROS IP97
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 96 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1090.8
Whiff%
p1018.5%
K%
p5322.8%
xwOBA vs
p240.343
FB+3.7 (63%)
SI (6%)
CU (4%)
CH-2.2 (3%)
SL-2.4 (29%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | A | South Bend Cubs | 19 | 19 | 77 | 361 | 76 | 39 | 3 | 100% | 4.1 | 15.6% | 12.7% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 5.00 | 4.00 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A | South Bend Cubs | 19 | 19 | 77 | 361 | 76 | 39 | 3 | 100% | 4.1 | 21.1% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 0.8% | 5.00 | 3.15 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 20 | 20 | 99 | 432 | 82 | 36 | 6 | 100% | 4.9 | 14.6% | 9.6% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 2.92 | 4.17 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 20 | 20 | 99 | 432 | 82 | 36 | 6 | 100% | 4.9 | 19.0% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 1.4% | 2.92 | 3.32 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 11 | 11 | 47 | 185 | 53 | 13 | 2 | 100% | 4.2 | 23.1% | 8.3% | 14.7% | 1.0% | 2.31 | 2.74 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 11 | 11 | 47 | 185 | 53 | 13 | 2 | 100% | 4.2 | 28.6% | 7.0% | 21.6% | 1.1% | 2.31 | 2.22 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 11 | 11 | 39 | 170 | 42 | 20 | 3 | 100% | 3.5 | 20.0% | 12.9% | 7.1% | 1.6% | 5.59 | 3.95 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 11 | 11 | 39 | 170 | 42 | 20 | 3 | 100% | 3.5 | 24.7% | 11.8% | 12.9% | 1.8% | 5.59 | 3.49 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 14 | 84 | 358 | 88 | 37 | 13 | 48% | 2.9 | 23.6% | 10.5% | 13.1% | 3.5% | 3.31 | 4.38 | +0.7 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 14 | 84 | 358 | 88 | 37 | 13 | 48% | 2.9 | 24.6% | 10.3% | 14.2% | 3.6% | 3.31 | 4.33 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 24 | 24 | 119 | 512 | 126 | 50 | 8 | 100% | 5.0 | 24.6% | 9.8% | 14.8% | 1.5% | 3.18 | 3.10 | +3.2 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 24 | 24 | 119 | 512 | 126 | 50 | 8 | 100% | 5.0 | 24.6% | 9.8% | 14.8% | 1.6% | 3.18 | 3.12 | +3.2 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 30 | 30 | 173 | 716 | 176 | 36 | 14 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.6% | 5.0% | 19.6% | 1.9% | 3.06 | 2.71 | +5.5 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 30 | 30 | 173 | 716 | 176 | 36 | 14 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.6% | 5.0% | 19.6% | 2.0% | 3.06 | 2.74 | +5.4 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 138 | 572 | 139 | 38 | 12 | 100% | 5.5 | 24.3% | 6.7% | 17.7% | 2.1% | 3.20 | 3.05 | +3.8 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 138 | 572 | 139 | 38 | 12 | 100% | 5.5 | 24.3% | 6.6% | 17.7% | 2.1% | 3.20 | 3.04 | +3.8 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 4 | 4 | 23 | 92 | 21 | 5 | 5 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.8% | 5.4% | 17.4% | 5.3% | 4.76 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 4 | 4 | 23 | 92 | 21 | 5 | 5 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.8% | 5.4% | 17.4% | 5.4% | 4.76 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 10 | 10 | 60 | 255 | 58 | 16 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.9% | 6.2% | 16.8% | 2.8% | 3.60 | 3.84 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 14 | 14 | 83 | 351 | 78 | 23 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.1% | 6.6% | 15.6% | 3.0% | 3.90 | 4.09 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 13 | 13 | 76 | 322 | 75 | 20 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.3% | 6.2% | 17.1% | 3.3% | 4.02 | 4.10 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 12 | 12 | 69 | 293 | 66 | 20 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.4% | 6.7% | 15.7% | 3.6% | 4.25 | 4.41 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 14 | 14 | 83 | 350 | 78 | 23 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.1% | 6.6% | 15.6% | 3.0% | 3.92 | 4.11 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 13 | 13 | 76 | 321 | 75 | 20 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.3% | 6.2% | 17.1% | 3.3% | 4.04 | 4.12 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 12 | 12 | 69 | 291 | 65 | 20 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.4% | 6.7% | 15.7% | 3.6% | 4.27 | 4.43 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 140 | 129 | 736 | 3089 | 735 | 216 | 83 | 92% | 5.3 | 23.8% | 7.0% | 16.8% | 2.7% | 3.54 | 3.45 | +16.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 35 | 200 | 840 | 200 | 59 | 23 | 92% | 5.2 | 23.8% | 7.0% | 16.8% | 2.7% | 3.54 | 3.45 | +4.6 | ||
| Career | — | 173 | 158 | 799 | 3398 | 743 | 292 | 68 | 91% | 4.6 | 21.9% | 8.6% | 13.3% | 2.0% | 3.43 | 3.44 | +18.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 40 | 200 | 851 | 186 | 73 | 17 | 91% | 4.6 | 21.9% | 8.6% | 13.3% | 2.0% | 3.43 | 3.44 | +4.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Justin Steele (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.84 | 22.9% | 6.2% | 2.8% | — | 4.19 | 22.6% | 16.1% | 229 | +0.35 | — | — | — |
| Kwang Hyun Kim L 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.68 | 15.6% | 6.5% | 2.0% | .214 | 4.11 | 17.7% | 9.5% | 107 | +0.43 | 3.68 | 146 | 54 |
| Brandon Mann L 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 4.14 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.59 | 3.60 | 190 | 54 |
| David Price L 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.41 | 24.0% | 7.6% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.64 | 25.8% | 18.9% | 283 | +0.23 | 2.65 | 922 | 52 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2029 · 3.79 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.79 | 14.8% | 7.1% | 1.9% | .315 | 4.03 | 13.3% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.24 | 3.39 | 138 | 51 |
| Jeff Locke L 2024 · 4.18 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.18 | 17.1% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.71 | 328 | 50 |
| Franklin Morales L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.06 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 2.2% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 101 | 49 |
| James Paxton L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.91 | 28.9% | 7.8% | 4.1% | .358 | 4.43 | 24.2% | 14.5% | 118 | +0.52 | 2.48 | 924 | 49 |
| James Russell L 2026 · 2.69 FIP | 31 | SP | 2.69 | 18.6% | 4.9% | 1.0% | .277 | 4.23 | 16.2% | 13.0% | 88 | +1.54 | 2.69 | 233 | 48 |
| Danny Duffy L 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.69 | 23.6% | 9.1% | 4.4% | .281 | 3.35 | 24.8% | 13.7% | 92 | -1.34 | 3.29 | 915 | 48 |
| Nick Additon L 2024 · 3.06 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.06 | 19.3% | 9.1% | 0.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 217 | 48 |
| Jason Vargas L 2027 · 4.29 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.29 | 14.8% | 6.6% | 2.9% | .295 | 4.63 | 19.2% | 12.1% | 285 | +0.34 | 3.87 | 478 | 47 |
| Hyun Jin Ryu L 2026 · 2.94 FIP | 31 | SP | 2.94 | 27.5% | 4.3% | 2.9% | .278 | 3.33 | 22.2% | 17.8% | 419 | +0.39 | 2.87 | 725 | 47 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2025 · 3.41 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.41 | 22.7% | 5.4% | 2.8% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 153 | 46 |
| Marlon Arias L 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.14 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.89 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.25 | 3.89 | 154 | 46 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2028 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.40 | 16.8% | 9.2% | 2.8% | .292 | 4.68 | 12.4% | 7.2% | 186 | +0.28 | 4.40 | 408 | 46 |
| Tsuyoshi Wada L 2029 · 3.68 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.68 | 16.8% | 7.1% | 2.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 119 | 45 |
| Patrick Corbin L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.97 | 20.3% | 5.8% | 3.4% | .361 | 4.91 | 17.5% | 10.3% | 504 | +0.94 | 2.20 | 1,825 | 45 |
| Tomas Solis L 2027 · 4.35 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.35 | 15.0% | 6.2% | 3.1% | .264 | 5.50 | 12.0% | 3.7% | 159 | +1.15 | 4.35 | 327 | 44 |
| Jose De Paula L 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.17 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 1.3% | .394 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.17 | 118 | 44 |
| Wade Miley L 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.36 | 16.7% | 7.0% | 1.4% | .286 | 3.99 | 18.7% | 10.6% | 345 | +0.63 | 3.36 | 1,167 | 43 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 72 | 22.7% | 6.4% | 1.22 | 3.95 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Eli Morgan ('24) | 4 | 66 | 23.8% | 6.4% | 1.46 | 3.97 |
| Joe Blanton ('17) | 3 | 67 | 24.2% | 6.7% | 1.08 | 3.32 |
| Nick Vincent ('20) | 6 | 45 | 22.7% | 6.3% | 1.13 | 3.71 |
| Kelvin Herrera ('19) | 5 | 59 | 23.8% | 7.3% | 1.03 | 3.58 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |