Justin Steele — OGILVIE

Justin Steele P Chicago Cubs

+0.4 WAR

INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)

Age 31 LHP 6'2" / 205 lbs MLB Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 0.9 · 2027

ERA3.59

FIP3.86

xFIP3.64

SIERA3.77

K%24.0%

BB%6.6%

K-BB%17.3%

IP97

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.9peak

2027

K†5555

FB Velo

p1090.8

Whiff%

p1018.5%

p5322.8%

xwOBA vs

p240.343

FB+3.7 (63%)

SI (6%)

CU (4%)

CH-2.2 (3%)

SL-2.4 (29%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2016	21	A	South Bend Cubs	19	19	77	361	76	39	3	15.6%	12.7%	1.1%	5.00	3.99	+1.0
2017	22	A+	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	20	20	99	432	82	36	6	14.6%	9.6%	1.9%	2.92	4.10	+1.3
2018	23	AA	Tennessee Smokies	11	11	47	185	53	13	2	23.1%	8.3%	1.0%	2.31	2.74	+1.2
2019	24	AA	Tennessee Smokies	11	11	39	170	42	20	3	20.0%	12.9%	1.8%	5.59	4.05	+0.4
2021	26	MLB	Chicago Cubs	29	14	84	358	88	37	13	23.6%	10.5%	3.6%	3.31	4.39	+0.7
2022	27	MLB	Chicago Cubs	24	24	119	512	126	50	8	24.6%	9.8%	1.6%	3.18	3.16	+2.9
2023	28	MLB	Chicago Cubs	30	30	173	716	176	36	14	24.6%	5.0%	2.0%	3.06	2.74	+5.0
2024	29	MLB	Chicago Cubs	25	25	138	572	139	38	12	24.3%	6.7%	2.2%	3.20	3.09	+3.5
2025	30	MLB	Chicago Cubs	4	4	23	92	21	5	5	22.8%	5.4%	5.6%	4.76	4.96	-0.0
▸ 2026 Season
2026	31	MLB	CHC	27	—	27	114	25	8	3	22.1%	6.6%	2.8%	3.50	4.01	+0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	32	MLB	CHC	15	15	80	339	73	23	10	21.4%	6.8%	2.9%	3.88	4.13	+0.9
2028	33	MLB	CHC	13	13	71	301	69	19	9	22.8%	6.2%	3.0%	3.94	3.99	+0.9
2029	34	MLB	CHC	11	11	63	266	59	17	8	22.1%	6.4%	3.1%	4.05	4.13	+0.6
2030	35	MLB	CHC	55	—	55	233	50	15	7	21.3%	6.6%	3.2%	4.19	4.28	+0.4
2031	36	MLB	CHC	48	—	48	203	42	14	7	20.5%	6.9%	3.3%	4.34	4.44	+0.3
2032	37	MLB	CHC	41	—	41	175	35	12	6	19.7%	7.1%	3.5%	4.51	4.62	+0.2
2033	38	MLB	CHC	35	—	35	149	28	11	5	18.9%	7.4%	3.6%	4.69	4.80	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			173	158	799	3398	743	292	70	21.9%	8.6%	2.1%	3.43	3.47	+16.6
/ 200 IP	—			43	40	200	851	186	73	18	21.9%	8.6%	2.1%	3.43	3.47	+4.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Steele (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.01	22.1%	6.6%	2.8%	—	4.08	22.1%	15.6%	215	+0.07	—	—	—
Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.68 FIP	31	SU	3.68	20.3%	7.1%	2.5%	.281	2.38	23.3%	21.0%	44	-1.30	2.38	306	63
Mike Dunn L 2026 · 3.70 FIP	31	SU	3.70	21.6%	6.2%	3.0%	.311	4.62	22.4%	8.9%	85	+0.92	3.70	181	63
Colt Hynes L 2026 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	22.3%	4.8%	3.1%	.353	3.79	14.1%	9.5%	56	+0.23	3.42	152	60
Manny Parra L 2027 · 2.90 FIP	32	SU	2.90	17.7%	3.8%	1.5%	.300	3.33	18.4%	8.1%	55	+0.43	2.43	114	59
Jeremy Bleich L 2026 · 3.69 FIP	31	SW	3.69	20.3%	6.6%	2.7%	.296	4.42	20.1%	13.1%	33	+0.73	3.20	241	58
Heriberto Ruelas L 2028 · 2.97 FIP	33	SU	2.97	19.1%	7.3%	1.0%	.352	3.57	16.2%	8.5%	89	+0.60	2.97	117	58
Tommy Layne L 2026 · 3.27 FIP	31	SU	3.27	20.3%	9.6%	1.2%	.266	4.24	19.4%	10.0%	90	+0.97	1.32	182	58
Phil Coke L 2028 · 3.85 FIP	33	SU	3.85	18.8%	9.1%	2.1%	.373	3.04	18.0%	11.3%	70	-0.81	3.04	101	58
Adam Liberatore L 2026 · 4.27 FIP	31	SU	4.27	18.6%	9.1%	2.9%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.44	124	57
Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 3.70 FIP	31	SW	3.70	25.3%	10.4%	2.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.83	223	57
Josh Edgin L 2026 · 3.62 FIP	31	SU	3.62	29.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	113	57
Jorge Ibarra L 2024 · 3.05 FIP	29	SU	3.05	19.3%	6.5%	1.4%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	146	57
Tony Watson L 2026 · 4.48 FIP	31	SW	4.48	21.3%	7.0%	4.2%	.227	3.50	21.4%	16.9%	187	-0.98	2.22	405	57
Aaron Loup L 2025 · 3.15 FIP	30	SU	3.15	24.0%	7.7%	2.0%	.364	2.52	25.1%	18.8%	82	-0.63	2.07	363	57
David Huff L 2026 · 4.07 FIP	31	SW	4.07	19.5%	4.9%	3.6%	.384	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	158	57
Brandon Mann L 2027 · 4.73 FIP	32	SW	4.73	19.4%	7.9%	4.1%	.320	3.99	19.0%	7.6%	128	-0.74	3.59	190	57
J.P. Howell L 2027 · 3.07 FIP	32	SU	3.07	20.5%	6.8%	1.5%	.326	3.70	18.5%	11.2%	62	+0.63	3.07	106	56
Chris Narveson L 2028 · 4.81 FIP	33	SW	4.81	23.6%	8.0%	4.9%	.333	4.63	14.1%	4.5%	193	-0.18	4.62	249	56
Josh Outman L 2026 · 4.54 FIP	31	SU	4.54	15.3%	3.7%	4.1%	.323	5.68	12.8%	-1.0%	86	+1.14	4.54	106	56
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2027 · 3.69 FIP	32	SU	3.69	15.6%	6.5%	2.0%	.214	4.23	17.7%	9.5%	107	+0.54	3.69	146	56

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2021

Service 5.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

DEF 10%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-3	$7M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.0M