Connor Oliver
P
Greensboro Grasshoppers
+0.0
WAR
Age 25
LHP
6'2" / 170 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2028
ERA4.98
FIP4.98
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.3%
BB%12.2%
K-BB%9.1%
IP60
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2028
STUF4545
CTRL2020
CMD3535
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | ACL Royals | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 24 | 9 | 79 | 350 | 82 | 36 | 6 | 17.3% | 12.1% | 2.2% | 5.24 | 4.35 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 23 | 7 | 52 | 231 | 59 | 36 | 9 | 18.6% | 18.5% | 4.8% | 4.50 | 6.49 | -0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 2 | 1 | 7 | 33 | 10 | 5 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.70 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | PIT | 60 | — | 60 | 252 | 52 | 38 | 8 | 20.7% | 14.9% | 3.2% | 5.38 | 5.38 | -0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 66 | 285 | 62 | 43 | 8 | 21.8% | 14.9% | 2.8% | 5.11 | 4.84 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | PIT | 60 | — | 60 | 252 | 53 | 36 | 8 | 21.1% | 14.3% | 3.2% | 5.26 | 5.25 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | PIT | 59 | — | 59 | 250 | 53 | 35 | 8 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 3.2% | 5.19 | 5.19 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 58 | — | 58 | 247 | 53 | 34 | 8 | 21.4% | 13.7% | 3.2% | 5.16 | 5.17 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | PIT | 57 | — | 57 | 241 | 51 | 33 | 8 | 21.3% | 13.7% | 3.2% | 5.17 | 5.20 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | PIT | 55 | — | 55 | 234 | 49 | 32 | 8 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 3.3% | 5.22 | 5.26 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | PIT | 54 | — | 54 | 226 | 47 | 31 | 8 | 20.9% | 13.9% | 3.4% | 5.29 | 5.33 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | PIT | 51 | — | 51 | 217 | 45 | 31 | 7 | 20.6% | 14.1% | 3.5% | 5.37 | 5.42 | -0.3 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | PIT | 49 | — | 49 | 207 | 42 | 30 | 7 | 20.3% | 14.3% | 3.5% | 5.46 | 5.52 | -0.3 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | PIT | 47 | — | 47 | 197 | 39 | 28 | 7 | 19.9% | 14.5% | 3.6% | 5.56 | 5.63 | -0.4 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | PIT | 44 | — | 44 | 185 | 36 | 27 | 7 | 19.5% | 14.7% | 3.8% | 5.67 | 5.75 | -0.4 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | PIT | 41 | — | 41 | 173 | 33 | 26 | 7 | 19.1% | 14.9% | 3.9% | 5.80 | 5.88 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 50 | 17 | 139 | 619 | 114 | 90 | 19 | 18.3% | 14.6% | 3.0% | 4.80 | 5.04 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 72 | 25 | 200 | 893 | 164 | 130 | 27 | 18.3% | 14.6% | 3.0% | 4.80 | 5.04 | +0.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Connor Oliver (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.38 | 20.7% | 14.9% | 3.2% | — | 5.20 | 21.3% | 7.3% | 177 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.18 | 20.4% | 13.6% | 3.8% | .269 | 4.08 | 20.7% | 6.1% | 103 | -1.10 | 3.46 | 145 | 85 |
| Adam Tulloch L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.73 | 17.4% | 15.7% | 2.0% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 212 | 84 |
| Chris Reed L 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.92 | 15.4% | 14.5% | 2.3% | .284 | 4.70 | 16.4% | 6.6% | 81 | -0.22 | 4.70 | 137 | 83 |
| Chandler Jozwiak L 2026 · 5.32 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.32 | 16.9% | 15.3% | 3.1% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 161 | 83 |
| Brendan Cellucci L 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.01 | 21.2% | 14.6% | 3.4% | .381 | 4.26 | 24.6% | 7.7% | 86 | -0.75 | 3.98 | 236 | 83 |
| Brian Marconi L 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.03 | 20.3% | 18.2% | 2.5% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 101 | 83 |
| Frank Garces L 2026 · 5.62 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.62 | 16.7% | 13.3% | 4.1% | .267 | 4.40 | 16.9% | 8.9% | 114 | -1.22 | 4.40 | 306 | 82 |
| Graeme Stinson L 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.89 | 19.5% | 15.6% | 2.7% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 146 | 82 |
| Joe Kemlage L 2025 · 5.32 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.32 | 17.6% | 11.7% | 4.0% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.41 | 128 | 82 |
| Ty Madrigal L 2026 · 5.77 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.77 | 17.6% | 15.2% | 4.1% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.54 | 107 | 82 |
| Cy Nielson L 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.33 | 20.9% | 12.7% | 2.5% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 161 | 81 |
| Nick Lee L 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.02 | 19.0% | 19.7% | 1.9% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 102 | 81 |
| José Manuel Fernández L 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.76 | 21.4% | 13.1% | 3.3% | .253 | 5.10 | 13.6% | 4.9% | 61 | +0.34 | 3.35 | 263 | 81 |
| Will Gilbert L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.40 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 141 | 81 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2027 · 5.12 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.12 | 21.7% | 12.3% | 4.2% | .342 | 3.76 | 24.6% | 10.5% | 53 | -1.36 | 3.76 | 161 | 81 |
| Winston Lavendier L 2025 · 5.06 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.06 | 17.8% | 12.9% | 3.4% | .344 | 4.95 | 14.2% | 4.7% | 21 | -0.11 | 2.98 | 179 | 81 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 5.93 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.93 | 16.1% | 13.2% | 4.6% | .245 | 3.85 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 159 | -2.08 | 3.50 | 300 | 81 |
| Brian Moran L 2027 · 4.53 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.53 | 17.7% | 14.1% | 2.1% | .318 | 2.78 | 25.0% | 17.4% | 80 | -1.75 | 1.81 | 421 | 80 |
| Julian Bosnic L 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.06 | 20.0% | 19.6% | 2.1% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 136 | 80 |
| Houston Harding L 2026 · 5.75 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.75 | 17.9% | 15.0% | 4.1% | .307 | 4.39 | 16.9% | 5.8% | 98 | -1.36 | 3.41 | 195 | 80 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.