Connor Oliver

P Altoona Curve

Age 26 LHP 6'2" / 170 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	APIT	24	9	79	5.24	3.38	23.4%	10.3%	—	K 17.3% · BB 12.1% · FIP 4.34
2025	24	MIX2 levels	23	7	52	4.50	5.16	25.5%	15.6%	—	K 18.6% · BB 18.5% · FIP 6.50
2026	25	MIX2 levels	28	22	115	4.47	4.92	24.5%	13.0%	—	K 19.4% · BB 14.6% · FIP 5.88
2027PROJ	26	MLBPIT	1	1	1	6.23	6.23	18.4%	17.4%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBPIT	5	5	28	6.05	6.07	18.8%	16.5%	-0.2
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBPIT	6	6	38	5.97	6.02	18.9%	16.0%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control20Command35

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 1.6, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 91%

CompsErik Rivera (age 23) · Brooks Gosswein (age 24) · Eric Stout (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135143vR 151

ERA6.23

FIP6.23

K%18.4%

BB%17.4%

K-BB%1.0%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL2020

CMD3535

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2024	23	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	24	9	79	350	82	36	6	38%	3.3	17.3%	12.1%	5.2%	2.1%	5.24	4.34	—
2024	23	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	24	9	79	350	82	36	6	38%	3.3	17.3%	12.1%	5.2%	2.1%	5.24	4.34	—
2024	23	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	24	9	79	350	82	36	6	38%	3.3	23.4%	10.3%	13.1%	1.7%	5.24	3.38	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	7	52	231	59	36	9	30%	2.3	18.6%	18.5%	0.1%	4.8%	4.50	6.50	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	7	52	231	59	36	9	30%	2.3	18.6%	18.5%	0.1%	4.8%	4.50	6.50	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	7	52	231	59	36	9	30%	2.3	25.5%	15.6%	10.0%	3.9%	4.50	5.16	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	22	115	515	126	67	20	79%	4.1	19.4%	14.6%	4.8%	4.7%	4.47	5.88	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	22	115	515	126	67	20	79%	4.1	19.4%	14.6%	4.8%	4.7%	4.47	5.88	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	22	115	515	126	67	20	79%	4.1	24.5%	13.0%	11.5%	3.9%	4.47	4.92	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	PIT	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	18.4%	17.4%	1.0%	3.8%	6.23	6.23	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	PIT	12	12	75	318	60	53	12	100%	6.3	18.8%	16.5%	2.2%	3.8%	6.05	6.07	-0.5
2029	28	MLB MLE	PIT	10	10	64	270	51	43	10	100%	6.4	18.9%	16.0%	2.8%	3.8%	5.97	6.02	-0.4
2030	29	MLB MLE	PIT	9	9	58	244	46	39	10	100%	6.4	18.8%	15.8%	2.9%	3.9%	5.99	6.06	-0.4
2031	30	MLB MLE	PIT	9	9	53	222	41	35	9	100%	5.8	18.5%	15.9%	2.6%	4.1%	6.09	6.19	-0.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	PIT	5	5	28	118	22	20	4	100%	5.6	18.8%	16.5%	2.2%	3.8%	6.05	6.07	-0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	PIT	6	6	38	160	30	26	6	100%	6.3	18.9%	16.0%	2.8%	3.8%	5.97	6.02	-0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	PIT	7	7	41	173	33	27	7	100%	5.9	18.8%	15.8%	2.9%	3.9%	5.99	6.06	-0.3
2031	30	MLB CTX	PIT	7	7	41	173	32	28	7	100%	5.9	18.5%	15.9%	2.6%	4.1%	6.09	6.19	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		24	24	148	627	117	101	25	100%	6.2	18.7%	16.0%	2.7%	3.9%	6.02	5.71	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	158	136	34	100%	6.1	18.7%	16.0%	2.7%	3.9%	6.02	5.71	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		76	38	247	1101	203	160	43	50%	3.2	18.5%	14.5%	3.9%	3.9%	4.71	5.51	-1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	31	200	893	165	130	35	50%	3.2	18.5%	14.5%	3.9%	3.9%	4.71	5.51	-1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAltoona Curve · 71 IPFIP 5.94 → 7.06 (+1.12)K% 21.7% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.67%	—	×0.810	17.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.69%	—	×1.100	13.96%
HR / BF /BF	5.57%	÷1.000	×1.200	6.69%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.94 → 7.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 44 IPFIP 2.92 → 3.89 (+0.97)K% 29.2% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.17%	—	×0.770	22.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.54%	—	×1.150	15.57%
HR / BF /BF	1.04%	÷1.000	×1.250	1.30%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.92 → 3.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 50 IPFIP 5.31 → 6.50 (+1.20)K% 24.1% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.11%	—	×0.770	18.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.07%	—	×1.150	18.48%
HR / BF /BF	4.02%	÷1.048	×1.250	4.79%

Result: FIP 5.31 → 6.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ABradenton Marauders · 79 IPFIP 3.37 → 4.34 (+0.98)K% 23.4% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.43%	—	×0.740	17.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.29%	—	×1.180	12.14%
HR / BF /BF	1.71%	÷1.046	×1.300	2.13%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 109).

Result: FIP 3.37 → 4.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Connor Oliver (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.23	18.4%	17.4%	3.8%	—	6.05	18.8%	2.6%	197	-0.18	—	—	—
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	73
Brooks Gosswein L 2023 · 5.61 FIP	24	SP-	5.61	15.2%	17.9%	2.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	5.13	165	72
Eric Stout L 2019 · 6.84 FIP	26	SW	6.84	16.3%	13.8%	6.1%	.299	4.91	25.6%	9.2%	83	-1.93	3.32	411	70
Nate Peterson L 2024 · 5.51 FIP	24	SP-	5.51	19.2%	11.4%	4.7%	.296	4.75	16.0%	3.7%	148	-0.76	4.27	315	69
Brad Mills L 2011 · 5.37 FIP	26	SP-	5.37	19.8%	12.1%	4.4%	.328	5.61	18.8%	7.9%	21	+0.24	4.22	243	67
Adam Loewen L 2008 · 6.87 FIP	24	SP-	6.87	13.7%	17.6%	4.9%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	2.96	340	66
Brian Holmes L 2017 · 5.91 FIP	26	SW	5.91	15.5%	11.7%	4.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	205	66
Adam Scott L 2022 · 5.27 FIP	26	SW	5.27	21.1%	13.5%	4.1%	.317	4.65	16.1%	-1.2%	46	-0.62	4.17	315	65
Bryan Sammons L 2021 · 6.16 FIP	26	SP-	6.16	17.0%	13.4%	5.1%	.276	5.52	20.7%	11.5%	261	-0.64	3.58	688	64
Kevin Smith L 2022 · 6.20 FIP	25	SW	6.20	17.5%	16.2%	4.6%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	248	64
Mitch Stallings L 2021 · 5.48 FIP	26	SW	5.48	16.8%	11.5%	4.3%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	2.18	108	64
Tyler Alexander L 2019 · 5.56 FIP	27	SP-	5.56	21.7%	9.8%	5.6%	.289	5.27	15.7%	5.0%	26	-0.29	5.27	128	63
Jacob Latz L 2022 · 6.11 FIP	26	SP-	6.11	21.4%	13.4%	5.7%	.333	3.61	24.1%	13.2%	208	-2.50	2.39	480	63
Jake Miednik L 2022 · 6.12 FIP	26	SP-	6.12	10.5%	14.6%	3.8%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	1.55	126	63
Joey Walsh L 2022 · 7.30 FIP	24	SW	7.30	18.8%	12.9%	7.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.93	100	62
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.54	14.3%	5.8%	242	-0.58	2.95	313	62
Cody Dickson L 2017 · 5.48 FIP	25	SW	5.48	15.9%	14.6%	3.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.88	354	62
Tommy Sommer L 2023 · 6.99 FIP	24	SP	6.99	16.7%	16.4%	5.9%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.28	230	61
Nick Allgeyer L 2022 · 5.17 FIP	26	SW	5.17	18.6%	9.8%	4.4%	.284	5.65	18.9%	6.8%	81	+0.48	3.74	390	60
Jaime Arias L 2024 · 5.33 FIP	25	SW	5.33	15.1%	9.7%	4.2%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	4.38	243	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	64	18.7%	16.4%	1.50	6.07
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Bill Laxton ('70-'77, -3 WAR*)	1.2	61	26.1%*	14.4%*	1.87*	5.39*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*