Connor Oliver
P
Greensboro Grasshoppers
Age 25
LHP
6'2" / 170 lbs
A+
2026 ROS PROJECTION71 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134143vR 152
ERA5.94
FIP5.94
K%18.0%
BB%17.7%
K-BB%0.3%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 141 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | ACL Royals | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.10 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | ACL Royals | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.10 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 24 | 9 | 79 | 350 | 82 | 36 | 6 | 38% | 3.3 | 17.3% | 12.1% | 5.2% | 2.0% | 5.24 | 4.29 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 24 | 9 | 79 | 350 | 82 | 36 | 6 | 38% | 3.3 | 23.4% | 10.3% | 13.1% | 1.7% | 5.24 | 3.38 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 7 | 52 | 231 | 59 | 36 | 9 | 30% | 2.3 | 18.6% | 18.5% | 0.1% | 4.6% | 4.50 | 6.39 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 7 | 52 | 231 | 59 | 36 | 9 | 30% | 2.3 | 25.5% | 15.6% | 10.0% | 3.9% | 4.50 | 5.16 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Altoona Curve | 18 | 12 | 71 | 311 | 78 | 38 | 8 | 67% | 3.9 | 19.6% | 13.9% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 3.55 | 4.91 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | PIT | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 53 | 52 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.0% | 17.7% | 0.3% | 3.2% | 5.94 | 5.94 | -1.0 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18.0% | 17.7% | 0.3% | 3.2% | 5.94 | 5.94 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 141 | 607 | 131 | 90 | 17 | — | — | 21.6% | 14.9% | 6.7% | 2.9% | 4.74 | 5.42 | -0.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 18.0% | 17.7% | 0.3% | 3.2% | 5.94 | 5.56 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | PIT | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 56 | 50 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.8% | 16.8% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 5.76 | 5.75 | -0.8 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | PIT | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 56 | 48 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.1% | 16.3% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 5.67 | 5.68 | -0.8 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 54 | 46 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.2% | 16.1% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 5.66 | 5.70 | -0.8 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | PIT | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 24 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.8% | 16.8% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 5.76 | 5.75 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | PIT | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 35 | 30 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.1% | 16.3% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 5.67 | 5.68 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 41 | 34 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.2% | 16.1% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 5.66 | 5.70 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 118 | 0 | 124 | 524 | 100 | 86 | 17 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.1% | 16.4% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 5.69 | 5.33 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 161 | 139 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.1% | 16.4% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 5.69 | 5.33 | +0.2 | ||
| Career | — | 66 | 28 | 203 | 897 | 164 | 128 | 27 | 42% | 3.1 | 18.3% | 14.3% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 5.04 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 65 | 28 | 200 | 884 | 162 | 126 | 27 | 42% | 3.1 | 18.3% | 14.3% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 5.04 | +0.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Connor Oliver (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.94 | 18.0% | 17.7% | 3.2% | — | 5.71 | 19.0% | 2.6% | 206 | -0.23 | — | — | — |
| Hayden Frank L 2024 · 5.29 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.29 | 17.2% | 14.2% | 3.4% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.29 | 109 | 79 |
| Liam Sullivan L 2025 · 5.49 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.49 | 20.1% | 15.8% | 3.8% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 121 | 78 |
| Cole Reynolds L 2025 · 5.26 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.26 | 17.3% | 16.9% | 2.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.81 | 108 | 78 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.35 | 20.5% | 15.0% | 3.8% | .307 | 3.48 | 21.1% | 12.6% | 150 | -1.87 | 2.34 | 338 | 77 |
| Anderson Polanco L 2026 · 6.02 FIP | 25 | SW | 6.02 | 19.9% | 20.9% | 3.5% | .298 | 5.41 | 18.9% | 2.6% | 47 | -0.61 | 4.00 | 316 | 74 |
| Nick Dombkowski L 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.37 | 16.7% | 11.9% | 3.9% | .273 | 6.05 | 16.6% | 6.2% | 129 | +0.68 | 3.58 | 371 | 74 |
| Brooks Gosswein L 2025 · 5.58 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.58 | 15.2% | 17.9% | 2.7% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.01 | 165 | 73 |
| Wyatt Crowell L 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.01 | 18.2% | 18.2% | 2.1% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 198 | 72 |
| Nathan Kirby L 2025 · 5.11 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.11 | 17.7% | 16.2% | 2.6% | .318 | 3.89 | 25.3% | 8.7% | 38 | -1.22 | 3.89 | 145 | 71 |
| Alec Gamboa L 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.37 | 14.8% | 13.1% | 3.4% | .287 | 4.11 | 16.6% | 3.2% | 169 | -1.26 | 1.46 | 404 | 70 |
| Rio Britton L 2024 · 4.77 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.77 | 22.0% | 15.8% | 2.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 128 | 70 |
| Austin Krob L 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.89 | 16.4% | 16.3% | 2.0% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 280 | 69 |
| Jackson Wolf L 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.80 | 16.3% | 13.4% | 2.5% | .344 | 4.37 | 19.6% | 10.5% | 203 | -0.43 | 3.99 | 572 | 69 |
| Kevin Smith L 2026 · 6.28 FIP | 25 | SW | 6.28 | 17.5% | 16.2% | 4.8% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 248 | 68 |
| Cody Dickson L 2026 · 5.52 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.52 | 15.9% | 14.6% | 3.5% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.90 | 354 | 68 |
| Drake Britton L 2027 · 4.82 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.82 | 11.1% | 9.7% | 2.6% | .268 | 4.93 | 8.0% | -2.2% | 41 | +0.11 | 4.82 | 125 | 67 |
| Cole Kirschsieper L 2023 · 5.23 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.23 | 15.2% | 12.0% | 3.5% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.23 | 105 | 66 |
| Carson Dorsey L 2024 · 5.47 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.47 | 18.3% | 12.5% | 4.2% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 107 | 66 |
| Matthew Spann L 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.13 | 15.1% | 16.9% | 2.1% | .375 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 173 | 66 |
| Edgar Barclay L 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.79 | 24.5% | 13.6% | 3.7% | .307 | 5.60 | 16.5% | 4.9% | 157 | +0.81 | 2.06 | 402 | 66 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 69 | 18.8% | 16.8% | 1.23 | 5.76 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |