Connor Oliver — OGILVIE

Connor Oliver P Altoona Curve

Age 25 LHP 6'2" / 170 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION112 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130139vR 147

ERA5.98

FIP5.98

K%18.0%

BB%17.9%

K-BB%0.1%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 118 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL2020

CMD3535

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2023	22	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2024	23	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	24	9	79	350	82	36	6	38%	3.3	17.3%	12.1%	5.2%	2.1%	5.24	4.34	—
2024	23	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	24	9	79	350	82	36	6	38%	3.3	17.3%	12.1%	5.2%	2.1%	5.24	4.34	—
2024	23	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	24	9	79	350	82	36	6	38%	3.3	23.4%	10.3%	13.1%	1.7%	5.24	3.38	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	7	52	231	59	36	9	30%	2.3	18.6%	18.5%	0.1%	4.8%	4.50	6.50	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	7	52	231	59	36	9	30%	2.3	18.6%	18.5%	0.1%	4.8%	4.50	6.50	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	7	52	231	59	36	9	30%	2.3	25.5%	15.6%	10.0%	3.9%	4.50	5.16	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	27	21	112	500	123	66	18	78%	4.1	19.5%	14.8%	4.7%	4.3%	4.35	5.71	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	27	21	112	500	123	66	18	78%	4.1	19.5%	14.8%	4.7%	4.3%	4.35	5.71	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A+ RAW	PIT	12	6	44	192	56	26	2	50%	3.6	29.2%	13.5%	15.6%	1.0%	2.27	2.92	—
2026	25	AA RAW	PIT	15	15	68	308	67	40	16	100%	4.5	21.8%	13.0%	8.8%	5.2%	5.69	5.76	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	PIT	1	1	6	25	4	4	1	100%	5.9	18.0%	17.9%	0.1%	3.2%	5.98	5.98	-0.1
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	PIT	—	—	118	525	127	70	19	—	—	24.3%	13.4%	10.9%	3.6%	4.43	5.72	-1.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	PIT	18	18	109	462	86	78	15	100%	6.1	18.7%	16.9%	1.8%	3.2%	5.79	5.78	-1.0
2028	27	MLB MLE	PIT	18	18	108	455	86	74	15	100%	6.0	18.9%	16.2%	2.7%	3.2%	5.69	5.70	-0.9
2029	28	MLB MLE	PIT	17	17	105	442	84	70	15	100%	6.2	18.9%	16.0%	3.0%	3.3%	5.68	5.72	-0.9
2030	29	MLB MLE	PIT	16	16	100	422	79	67	15	100%	6.2	18.8%	16.0%	2.8%	3.4%	5.74	5.81	-1.0
2031	30	MLB MLE	PIT	15	15	94	396	73	65	14	100%	6.3	18.4%	16.3%	2.2%	3.6%	5.89	5.99	-1.1
2027	26	MLB CTX	PIT	8	8	48	203	38	34	6	100%	6.0	18.7%	16.9%	1.8%	3.2%	5.79	5.78	-0.5
2028	27	MLB CTX	PIT	11	11	68	287	54	47	9	100%	6.2	18.9%	16.2%	2.7%	3.2%	5.69	5.70	-0.6
2029	28	MLB CTX	PIT	13	13	79	334	63	53	11	100%	6.1	18.9%	16.0%	3.0%	3.3%	5.68	5.72	-0.7
2030	29	MLB CTX	PIT	13	13	82	346	65	55	12	100%	6.3	18.8%	16.0%	2.8%	3.4%	5.74	5.81	-0.8
2031	30	MLB CTX	PIT	13	13	81	342	63	56	12	100%	6.2	18.4%	16.3%	2.2%	3.6%	5.89	5.99	-0.9
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	59	358	1510	283	245	51	100%	6.1	18.8%	16.2%	2.5%	3.4%	5.76	5.42	-2.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	158	137	29	100%	6.1	18.8%	16.2%	2.5%	3.4%	5.76	5.42	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		75	37	244	1086	201	159	40	49%	3.2	18.5%	14.6%	3.9%	3.7%	4.65	5.43	-7.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	30	200	891	165	131	33	49%	3.2	18.5%	14.6%	3.9%	3.7%	4.65	5.43	-2.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Connor Oliver (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.98	18.0%	17.9%	3.2%	—	5.73	18.8%	2.5%	322	-0.25	—	—	—
Seth Lonsway L 2023 · 5.20 FIP	24	SP-	5.20	13.8%	15.3%	2.4%	.317	4.17	15.2%	4.4%	313	-1.03	3.35	498	81
Larson Kindreich L 2023 · 5.29 FIP	24	SW	5.29	21.5%	18.8%	3.0%	.269	4.68	23.0%	9.0%	79	-0.61	4.16	214	77
Bryce Hubbart L 2023 · 5.87 FIP	22	SW	5.87	17.0%	26.0%	1.7%	.303	5.32	17.8%	4.0%	148	-0.55	4.79	193	77
Garrett Schoenle L 2023 · 5.38 FIP	25	SP-	5.38	20.5%	15.0%	3.9%	.307	3.59	20.9%	12.2%	172	-1.79	2.32	359	77
Brooks Gosswein L 2023 · 5.61 FIP	24	SP-	5.61	15.2%	17.9%	2.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	5.13	165	75
Noah Dean L 2023 · 5.83 FIP	22	SP-	5.83	21.1%	28.1%	1.7%	.343	5.14	23.3%	4.2%	154	-0.69	4.41	217	72
Mason Green L 2023 · 5.28 FIP	24	SW	5.28	17.9%	16.7%	2.9%	.278	4.24	18.4%	6.3%	262	-1.04	3.68	448	71
Joe Adametz L 2023 · 5.89 FIP	23	SW	5.89	19.0%	15.0%	4.5%	.158	4.32	14.8%	5.5%	224	-1.57	3.66	248	70
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	70
Cole Kirschsieper L 2023 · 5.07 FIP	22	SP-	5.07	15.2%	12.0%	3.2%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	5.07	105	69
Tim Berry L 2016 · 5.66 FIP	25	SP-	5.66	11.3%	13.5%	3.3%	.380	4.04	20.0%	1.8%	44	-1.62	4.04	196	69
Doug Nikhazy L 2023 · 5.39 FIP	23	SP	5.39	21.9%	16.9%	3.6%	.304	4.73	19.6%	8.6%	256	-0.66	4.16	461	68
Nathan Kirby L 2018 · 5.12 FIP	24	SW	5.12	17.7%	16.2%	2.7%	.318	3.84	25.3%	8.7%	38	-1.28	3.84	145	68
Anderson Polanco L 2018 · 5.95 FIP	25	SW	5.95	19.9%	20.9%	3.4%	.298	5.09	18.9%	2.6%	47	-0.86	4.10	316	68
Brett Adcock L 2019 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP	5.34	17.4%	13.6%	3.6%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	301	66
Zach King L 2023 · 5.02 FIP	25	SP-	5.02	14.1%	13.0%	2.7%	.343	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	278	66
Matt Mikulski L 2023 · 6.17 FIP	24	SW	6.17	16.4%	18.6%	3.8%	.303	5.90	16.3%	-3.3%	78	-0.27	4.92	223	66
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	65
Kevin Smith L 2022 · 6.20 FIP	25	SW	6.20	17.5%	16.2%	4.6%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	248	65
Alec Gamboa L 2022 · 5.36 FIP	25	SW	5.36	14.8%	13.1%	3.4%	.287	3.96	15.8%	4.0%	169	-1.40	1.46	439	64

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	98	18.7%	16.5%	1.29	5.78
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Brandon Finnegan ('18)	1.2	80	19.7%	11.6%	1.57	4.19
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25