Erik Rivera
P
Portland Sea Dogs
Age 25
LHP
6'2" / 200 lbs
AA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION25 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.83
FIP4.83
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.4%
BB%12.6%
K-BB%9.8%
IP26
K†5555
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 20 | A | Inland Empire 66ers | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 46.2% | 7.7% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.18 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | 7 | 6 | 11 | 54 | 16 | 15 | 0 | 29.6% | 27.8% | 0.0% | 4.09 | 4.12 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | 10 | 8 | 35 | 158 | 39 | 20 | 5 | 19.0% | 14.6% | 4.8% | 3.31 | 5.95 | -0.6 |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 21 | 1 | 47 | 216 | 60 | 36 | 5 | 21.4% | 19.2% | 2.3% | 7.33 | 5.01 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 14 | 0 | 31 | 146 | 40 | 22 | 3 | 22.9% | 14.3% | 2.7% | 3.77 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | BOS | 26 | — | 26 | 108 | 24 | 14 | 3 | 22.4% | 12.6% | 3.0% | 4.83 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 56 | 254 | 64 | 36 | 6 | 25.3% | 14.0% | 2.5% | 4.25 | 4.64 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 26 | — | 26 | 108 | 24 | 13 | 3 | 22.7% | 12.2% | 3.0% | 4.76 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 53 | 16 | 127 | 587 | 132 | 101 | 17 | 22.4% | 17.2% | 2.8% | 4.88 | 4.94 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 83 | 25 | 200 | 922 | 207 | 159 | 27 | 22.4% | 17.2% | 2.8% | 4.88 | 4.94 | +1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Erik Rivera (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.83 | 22.4% | 12.6% | 3.0% | — | 4.75 | 22.7% | 10.5% | 26 | -0.08 | — | — | — |
| Brian Marconi L 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.96 | 20.3% | 18.2% | 2.3% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.61 | 101 | 87 |
| Julian Bosnic L 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.01 | 20.0% | 19.6% | 2.0% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.28 | 136 | 85 |
| Nick Lee L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.73 | 19.0% | 19.7% | 1.4% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 102 | 85 |
| Adam Tulloch L 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.79 | 17.4% | 15.7% | 2.1% | .284 | 4.95 | 19.3% | -0.4% | 16 | +0.16 | 4.12 | 228 | 84 |
| Fabian Williamson L 2027 · 5.34 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.34 | 17.4% | 17.9% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.25 | 20.0% | 8.2% | 77 | -1.09 | 3.46 | 154 | 83 |
| Anderson Polanco L 2026 · 6.02 FIP | 25 | SW | 6.02 | 19.9% | 20.9% | 3.5% | .298 | 5.41 | 18.9% | 2.6% | 47 | -0.61 | 4.00 | 316 | 83 |
| Noah Dean L 2025 · 5.37 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.37 | 21.1% | 18.6% | 3.1% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.50 | 206 | 82 |
| Chandler Jozwiak L 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.23 | 16.9% | 15.3% | 2.9% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.88 | 161 | 81 |
| Chris Reed L 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.92 | 15.4% | 14.5% | 2.3% | .284 | 4.84 | 16.4% | 6.6% | 81 | -0.08 | 4.84 | 137 | 81 |
| Joseph Menefee L 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.10 | 23.3% | 17.4% | 3.2% | .268 | 6.74 | 19.4% | -8.5% | 13 | +1.64 | 3.16 | 146 | 81 |
| Graeme Stinson L 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.75 | 19.5% | 15.6% | 2.4% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 146 | 81 |
| Caden Monke L 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.28 | 19.0% | 19.3% | 2.4% | .352 | 3.43 | 25.9% | 6.1% | 27 | -1.85 | 3.43 | 145 | 80 |
| Davis Schwab L 2026 · 5.86 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.86 | 20.3% | 18.7% | 3.8% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 114 | 80 |
| Matt Mikulski L 2026 · 6.16 FIP | 25 | SW | 6.16 | 15.3% | 17.1% | 4.0% | .275 | 4.98 | 19.5% | -8.3% | 18 | -1.18 | 4.80 | 223 | 79 |
| Ty Madrigal L 2026 · 5.86 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.86 | 17.6% | 15.2% | 4.2% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.64 | 107 | 79 |
| Brendan Cellucci L 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.91 | 21.2% | 14.6% | 3.2% | .381 | 4.44 | 24.1% | 7.6% | 105 | -0.47 | 3.96 | 256 | 79 |
| Yoan Aybar L 2026 · 5.64 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.64 | 20.9% | 19.7% | 3.3% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 166 | 78 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.25 | 20.4% | 13.6% | 3.9% | .269 | 4.20 | 20.7% | 6.1% | 103 | -1.05 | 3.46 | 145 | 78 |
| Christian Chamberlain L 2025 · 4.53 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.53 | 27.0% | 18.9% | 2.4% | .238 | 3.91 | 20.7% | 0.5% | 43 | -0.62 | 3.91 | 148 | 78 |
| John Kilichowski L 2025 · 5.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.26 | 17.6% | 16.2% | 2.9% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 115 | 78 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.