Erik Rivera

P Portland Sea Dogs

Age 26 LHP 6'2" / 200 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	A+LAA	10	8	35	3.31	4.43	24.7%	12.7%	—	K 19.0% · BB 14.6% · FIP 5.71
2025	24	A+BOS	21	1	47	7.33	4.24	27.8%	16.7%	—	K 21.4% · BB 19.2% · FIP 5.14
2026	25	MIX2 levels	36	0	63	5.31	3.64	31.3%	15.8%	—	K 25.8% · BB 16.3% · FIP 4.42
2027PROJ	26	MLBBOS	1	0	1	5.36	5.36	24.5%	18.6%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBBOS	19	0	20	5.28	5.29	24.4%	17.8%	-0.2
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBBOS	25	0	26	5.27	5.31	24.2%	17.3%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control20Command40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.8, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsTrey Jeans (age 26) · Matt Thornton (age 27) · Jake Rice (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119127vR 135

ERA5.36

FIP5.36

K%24.5%

BB%18.6%

K-BB%5.9%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL2020

CMD4040

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	20	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	1	1	3	13	6	1	0	100%	3.3	46.2%	7.7%	38.5%	0.0%	0.00	0.18	—
2021	20	A RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	1	1	3	13	6	1	0	100%	3.3	46.2%	7.7%	38.5%	0.0%	0.00	0.40	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	6	11	54	16	15	0	86%	1.6	29.6%	27.8%	1.9%	0.0%	4.09	4.12	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	6	11	54	16	15	0	86%	1.6	29.6%	27.8%	1.9%	0.0%	4.09	4.28	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	10	8	35	158	39	20	5	80%	3.5	19.0%	14.6%	4.4%	4.3%	3.31	5.71	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	10	8	35	158	39	20	5	80%	3.5	19.0%	14.6%	4.4%	4.3%	3.31	5.71	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Tri-City Dust Devils	10	8	35	158	39	20	5	80%	3.5	24.7%	12.7%	12.0%	3.2%	3.31	4.43	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	21	1	47	216	60	36	5	5%	2.2	21.4%	19.2%	2.2%	2.6%	7.33	5.14	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	21	1	47	216	60	36	5	5%	2.2	21.4%	19.2%	2.2%	2.6%	7.33	5.14	—
2025	24	A+ RAW	Greenville Drive	21	1	47	216	60	36	5	5%	2.2	27.8%	16.7%	11.1%	2.3%	7.33	4.24	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	63	291	91	46	6	0%	1.7	25.8%	16.3%	9.5%	2.6%	5.31	4.42	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	63	291	91	46	6	0%	1.7	25.8%	16.3%	9.5%	2.6%	5.31	4.42	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	0	63	291	91	46	6	0%	1.7	31.3%	15.8%	15.5%	2.1%	5.31	3.64	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	BOS	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	24.5%	18.6%	5.9%	2.9%	5.36	5.36	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	BOS	49	0	52	219	53	39	6	0%	1.1	24.4%	17.8%	6.6%	3.0%	5.28	5.29	-0.4
2029	28	MLB MLE	BOS	42	0	44	187	45	32	6	0%	1.1	24.2%	17.3%	6.9%	3.1%	5.27	5.31	-0.4
2030	29	MLB MLE	BOS	38	0	40	168	40	29	5	0%	1.0	23.9%	17.1%	6.8%	3.2%	5.32	5.39	-0.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	BOS	19	0	20	84	21	15	2	0%	1.1	24.4%	17.8%	6.6%	3.0%	5.28	5.29	-0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	BOS	25	0	26	110	27	19	3	0%	1.0	24.2%	17.3%	6.9%	3.1%	5.27	5.31	-0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	BOS	27	0	28	118	28	20	4	0%	1.0	23.9%	17.1%	6.8%	3.2%	5.32	5.39	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		70	0	74	312	75	54	10	0%	1.1	24.2%	17.3%	6.8%	3.1%	5.29	4.95	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	203	146	27	0%	1.1	24.2%	17.3%	6.8%	3.1%	5.29	4.95	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		75	16	159	732	173	128	20	21%	2.1	23.7%	17.5%	6.2%	2.7%	5.26	4.81	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		94	20	200	921	218	161	25	21%	2.1	23.7%	17.5%	6.2%	2.7%	5.26	4.81	-1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 59 IPFIP 3.48 → 4.42 (+0.94)K% 31.9% → 25.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.88%	—	×0.810	25.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.86%	—	×1.100	16.34%
HR / BF /BF	2.17%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.61%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.48 → 4.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Greenville Drive · 47 IPFIP 4.14 → 5.14 (+1.01)K% 27.8% → 21.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.78%	—	×0.770	21.39%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.67%	—	×1.150	19.17%
HR / BF /BF	2.31%	÷1.117	×1.250	2.59%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 123).

Result: FIP 4.14 → 5.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 35 IPFIP 4.36 → 5.71 (+1.35)K% 24.7% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.68%	—	×0.770	19.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.66%	—	×1.150	14.56%
HR / BF /BF	3.16%	÷0.916	×1.250	4.32%

Result: FIP 4.36 → 5.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Angels · 7 IPFIP 5.04 → 6.96 (+1.92)K% 29.7% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.73%	—	×0.680	20.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	35.14%	—	×1.250	43.92%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.910	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 5.04 → 6.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Erik Rivera (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.36	24.5%	18.6%	2.9%	—	5.33	24.2%	6.8%	136	-0.03	—	—	—
Trey Jeans L 2022 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	22.3%	16.5%	3.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.74	111	77
Matt Thornton L 2004 · 4.18 FIP	27	SU	4.18	20.3%	16.2%	1.4%	.304	4.18	21.8%	11.5%	167	-0.00	1.71	663	77
Jake Rice L 2023 · 4.41 FIP	26	SU	4.41	23.4%	18.1%	1.8%	.305	4.87	19.0%	4.3%	103	+0.46	3.16	199	77
Graeme Stinson L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	19.5%	15.6%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	146	76
Christian Chamberlain L 2023 · 4.29 FIP	24	SU	4.29	26.7%	17.5%	2.2%	.238	3.91	20.7%	0.5%	43	-0.38	3.91	148	75
Matt Purke L 2016 · 4.25 FIP	26	SU	4.25	19.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.284	3.54	21.4%	8.8%	112	-0.71	3.01	226	75
Trey Cumbie L 2022 · 5.07 FIP	26	SU	5.07	23.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.215	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	152	75
Brian Marconi L 2022 · 5.02 FIP	25	SU	5.02	20.3%	18.2%	2.4%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	101	75
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	74
Will Lamb L 2017 · 5.78 FIP	26	SU	5.78	20.0%	14.0%	4.7%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	178	74
Ben Harris L 2024 · 5.66 FIP	24	SU	5.66	23.8%	19.6%	3.8%	.291	4.74	21.1%	0.9%	30	-0.92	3.06	183	74
Andy Fisher L 2022 · 4.20 FIP	26	SU	4.20	21.5%	15.4%	1.8%	.333	4.25	17.2%	6.3%	52	+0.05	3.13	167	73
Fabian Williamson L 2015 · 5.31 FIP	26	SU	5.31	17.4%	17.9%	2.6%	.289	4.16	20.0%	8.2%	77	-1.15	3.39	154	73
Davis Schwab L 2022 · 5.70 FIP	25	SU	5.70	20.3%	18.7%	3.5%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	114	72
Seth Clark L 2024 · 5.66 FIP	24	SU	5.66	18.9%	16.2%	3.9%	.267	4.56	17.7%	-2.7%	32	-1.10	4.23	128	72
C.J. Widger L 2024 · 4.21 FIP	25	SU	4.21	26.0%	16.0%	2.3%	.258	5.75	18.1%	-0.7%	57	+1.54	3.83	105	72
Nick Lee L 2016 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	19.0%	19.7%	1.8%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	102	72
Anderson Polanco L 2019 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	18.9%	16.3%	2.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	316	72
Sean Keselica L 2019 · 4.47 FIP	26	SU	4.47	18.0%	14.5%	1.9%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	235	72
Adam Scott L 2022 · 5.27 FIP	26	SW	5.27	21.1%	13.5%	4.1%	.317	4.65	16.1%	-1.2%	46	-0.62	4.17	315	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	51	24.3%	17.8%	1.16	5.31
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Ken Wright ('70-'74, -0 WAR*)	1.2	79	23.8%*	16.1%*	0.70*	5.24*