Christian Chamberlain
P
Northwest Arkansas Naturals
+0.0
WAR
Age 27
LHP
5'10" / 173 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.66
FIP4.66
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.8%
BB%14.0%
K-BB%8.8%
IP38
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL2020
CMD3535
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 2 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 4.91 | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 33 | 4 | 49 | 243 | 72 | 47 | 9 | 23.4% | 21.7% | 4.6% | 6.24 | 6.42 | -0.8 |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 46 | 0 | 56 | 261 | 84 | 46 | 5 | 27.0% | 18.9% | 2.2% | 4.82 | 4.42 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 42 | 0 | 43 | 196 | 50 | 36 | 0 | 20.7% | 20.2% | 0.0% | 2.93 | 3.91 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 3 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 3 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 2.25 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | KC | 38 | — | 38 | 161 | 37 | 27 | 4 | 22.8% | 16.7% | 2.4% | 5.00 | 5.00 | -0.0 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | KC | — | — | 42 | 179 | 40 | 31 | 5 | 22.2% | 17.3% | 2.7% | 4.74 | 4.52 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | KC | 38 | — | 38 | 158 | 36 | 25 | 4 | 22.8% | 16.0% | 2.5% | 4.95 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | KC | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 35 | 24 | 4 | 22.7% | 15.6% | 2.6% | 4.93 | 4.95 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | KC | 36 | — | 36 | 150 | 34 | 23 | 4 | 22.5% | 15.3% | 2.7% | 4.95 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | KC | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 32 | 22 | 4 | 22.3% | 15.3% | 2.7% | 5.00 | 5.04 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | KC | 33 | — | 33 | 139 | 31 | 22 | 4 | 22.1% | 15.5% | 2.8% | 5.08 | 5.13 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | KC | 32 | — | 32 | 133 | 29 | 21 | 4 | 21.7% | 15.7% | 2.9% | 5.17 | 5.22 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | KC | 30 | — | 30 | 126 | 27 | 20 | 4 | 21.4% | 15.8% | 3.0% | 5.27 | 5.33 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 126 | 4 | 156 | 733 | 177 | 147 | 18 | 24.1% | 20.0% | 2.5% | 4.68 | 4.95 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 162 | 5 | 200 | 942 | 227 | 189 | 23 | 24.1% | 20.0% | 2.5% | 4.68 | 4.95 | +0.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Christian Chamberlain (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.00 | 22.8% | 16.7% | 2.4% | — | 4.96 | 22.7% | 7.0% | 110 | -0.04 | — | — | — |
| Andy Oliver L 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.15 | 23.4% | 16.9% | 1.6% | .283 | 4.60 | 19.2% | 8.6% | 108 | +0.45 | 3.97 | 165 | 86 |
| Brian Moran L 2025 · 4.53 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.53 | 17.7% | 14.1% | 2.1% | .318 | 2.78 | 25.0% | 17.4% | 80 | -1.75 | 1.81 | 421 | 83 |
| Trey Jeans L 2025 · 5.11 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.11 | 22.3% | 16.5% | 3.3% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.74 | 111 | 82 |
| Rex Brothers L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 27.2% | 23.5% | 0.5% | .286 | 4.08 | 26.4% | 9.1% | 64 | +0.04 | 3.16 | 205 | 80 |
| Graeme Stinson L 2024 · 4.89 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.89 | 19.5% | 15.6% | 2.7% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 146 | 79 |
| Aaron Brown L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.02 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .317 | 4.77 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 129 | +0.75 | 4.02 | 269 | 79 |
| Joseph Menefee L 2024 · 5.25 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.25 | 23.3% | 17.4% | 3.5% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 134 | 79 |
| Dale Stanavich L 2025 · 5.63 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.63 | 21.8% | 18.2% | 3.8% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 144 | 78 |
| Trey Cumbie L 2025 · 5.08 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.08 | 23.3% | 16.1% | 3.5% | .215 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 152 | 78 |
| Hunter Cervenka L 2026 · 5.94 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.94 | 18.9% | 15.0% | 4.6% | .282 | 3.10 | 25.9% | 15.0% | 81 | -2.84 | 3.04 | 194 | 77 |
| Tony Cingrani L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.21 | 18.1% | 13.3% | 1.8% | .271 | 3.66 | 32.4% | 26.1% | 65 | -0.55 | 1.66 | 186 | 77 |
| Nick Lee L 2024 · 5.02 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.02 | 19.0% | 19.7% | 1.9% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 102 | 77 |
| Ryan Och L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.84 | 19.5% | 13.9% | 1.1% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.54 | 124 | 77 |
| Brian Marconi L 2024 · 5.03 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.03 | 20.3% | 18.2% | 2.5% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 101 | 77 |
| Sam Freeman L 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.23 | 23.4% | 14.6% | 2.3% | .265 | 3.56 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 166 | -0.67 | 3.06 | 299 | 77 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.58 | 19.4% | 15.5% | 2.1% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 264 | 76 |
| Jordan Harrison L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.87 | 19.4% | 14.3% | 1.1% | .246 | 3.82 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 49 | -0.05 | 3.82 | 244 | 76 |
| Ty Madrigal L 2024 · 5.77 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.77 | 17.6% | 15.2% | 4.1% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.54 | 107 | 75 |
| Jeff Belge L 2025 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.25 | 19.4% | 12.3% | 2.2% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 175 | 75 |
| Travis Bergen L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.98 | 26.7% | 15.9% | 2.0% | .308 | 4.96 | 19.3% | -1.2% | 24 | +0.98 | 2.48 | 143 | 75 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.