Christian Chamberlain

Christian Chamberlain P Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 27 LHP 5'10" / 173 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION6 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124132vR 140

ERA5.62

FIP5.62

K%21.9%

BB%21.1%

K-BB%0.9%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL2020

CMD3535

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	2	0	4	15	6	1	0	0%	1.8	40.0%	6.7%	33.3%	0.0%	4.91	0.57	—
2021	22	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	2	0	4	15	6	1	0	0%	1.8	40.0%	6.7%	33.3%	0.0%	4.91	0.65	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	4	49	243	72	47	9	12%	1.5	23.4%	21.7%	1.7%	4.6%	6.24	6.42	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	4	49	243	72	47	9	12%	1.5	29.6%	19.3%	10.3%	3.7%	6.24	5.43	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	56	261	84	46	5	0%	1.2	26.3%	17.5%	8.8%	2.2%	4.82	4.33	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	56	261	84	46	5	0%	1.2	26.3%	17.5%	8.8%	2.2%	4.82	4.33	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	56	261	84	46	5	0%	1.2	32.2%	17.6%	14.6%	1.9%	4.82	3.73	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	42	0	43	196	50	36	0	0%	1.0	20.7%	20.2%	0.5%	0.0%	2.93	3.91	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	42	0	43	196	50	36	0	0%	1.0	20.7%	20.2%	0.5%	0.0%	2.93	3.91	—
2025	26	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	42	0	43	196	50	36	0	0%	1.0	25.5%	18.4%	7.1%	0.0%	2.93	3.29	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	7	0	6	36	4	10	2	0%	0.9	—	—	—	—	8.53	—	—
YTD	27	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	7	0	6	36	4	10	2	0%	0.9	—	—	—	—	8.53	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AA RAW	KC	7	0	6	36	4	10	2	0%	0.9	11.1%	27.8%	-16.7%	5.6%	8.53	8.73	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	KC	5	0	5	21	5	4	1	0%	1.0	21.9%	21.1%	0.9%	2.4%	5.62	5.62	-0.1
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	11	57	9	14	3	—	—	15.1%	25.3%	-10.2%	4.4%	7.24	2.48	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	KC	55	0	58	244	53	49	6	0%	1.0	21.9%	20.0%	1.9%	2.6%	5.54	5.58	-0.7
2028	29	MLB MLE	KC	52	0	55	233	51	45	6	0%	1.1	21.8%	19.4%	2.4%	2.8%	5.55	5.61	-0.6
2027	28	MLB CTX	KC	21	0	22	93	20	19	2	0%	1.0	21.9%	20.0%	1.9%	2.6%	5.54	5.58	-0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	KC	30	0	31	131	29	25	4	0%	1.0	21.8%	19.4%	2.4%	2.8%	5.55	5.61	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		50	0	52	221	48	44	6	0%	1.0	21.9%	19.7%	2.2%	2.7%	5.55	5.22	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	168	23	0%	1.1	21.9%	19.7%	2.2%	2.7%	5.55	5.22	-1.6
Career	—	MLE		130	4	158	751	176	149	19	3%	1.2	23.4%	19.9%	3.6%	2.5%	4.90	5.03	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		165	5	200	951	223	189	24	3%	1.2	23.4%	19.9%	3.6%	2.5%	4.90	5.03	-2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Christian Chamberlain (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.62	21.9%	21.1%	2.4%	—	5.59	21.9%	2.1%	113	-0.03	—	—	—
Nick Lee L 2016 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	19.0%	19.7%	1.8%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	102	84
Gil Luna L 2023 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	22.5%	24.5%	1.9%	.303	4.95	19.7%	-6.0%	73	-0.42	4.57	113	84
Brian Marconi L 2022 · 5.02 FIP	25	SU	5.02	20.3%	18.2%	2.4%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	101	82
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	80
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	79
Trey Jeans L 2022 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	22.3%	16.5%	3.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.74	111	79
Graeme Stinson L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	19.5%	15.6%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	146	77
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	77
Ty Madrigal L 2022 · 5.75 FIP	25	SU	5.75	17.6%	15.2%	4.0%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	107	76
Hunter Cervenka L 2017 · 5.91 FIP	27	SU	5.91	18.9%	15.0%	4.6%	.282	3.10	25.9%	15.0%	81	-2.81	3.08	194	75
Davis Schwab L 2022 · 5.70 FIP	25	SU	5.70	20.3%	18.7%	3.5%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	114	75
Luke Westphal L 2016 · 4.69 FIP	27	SU	4.69	21.2%	19.7%	1.6%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	294	75
Sean Keselica L 2019 · 4.47 FIP	26	SU	4.47	18.0%	14.5%	1.9%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	235	75
Andrew Mitchell L 2022 · 6.04 FIP	27	SU	6.04	18.2%	17.0%	4.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	2.51	119	75
Trey Cumbie L 2022 · 5.07 FIP	26	SU	5.07	23.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.215	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	152	74
Erik Sabrowski L 2023 · 4.53 FIP	25	SU	4.53	24.7%	21.5%	1.4%	.267	3.11	32.6%	17.3%	109	-1.42	2.57	160	74
Kit Scheetz L 2021 · 5.08 FIP	27	SU	5.08	16.2%	13.6%	2.9%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.34	195	73
Brendan Cellucci L 2023 · 4.99 FIP	25	SU	4.99	21.2%	14.6%	3.3%	.381	4.25	23.2%	9.2%	137	-0.74	3.98	288	72
Evan Lee L 2023 · 5.38 FIP	26	SU	5.38	17.2%	25.3%	0.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	129	71
Max Schuh L 2017 · 4.70 FIP	25	SU	4.70	19.2%	13.6%	2.7%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	118	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	21.9%	20.2%	1.00	5.57
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99