Christian Chamberlain
P
Northwest Arkansas Naturals
Age 27
LHP
5'10" / 173 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION6 act + 60 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126135vR 144
ERA5.58
FIP5.58
K%22.1%
BB%20.8%
K-BB%1.3%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 2 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.8 | 40.0% | 6.7% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 4.91 | 0.57 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 2 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.8 | 40.0% | 6.7% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 4.91 | 0.65 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 4 | 49 | 243 | 72 | 47 | 9 | 12% | 1.5 | 23.4% | 21.7% | 1.7% | 4.8% | 6.24 | 6.50 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 4 | 49 | 243 | 72 | 47 | 9 | 12% | 1.5 | 29.6% | 19.3% | 10.3% | 3.7% | 6.24 | 5.43 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 56 | 261 | 84 | 46 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 27.0% | 18.9% | 8.1% | 2.4% | 4.82 | 4.53 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 56 | 261 | 84 | 46 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 32.2% | 17.6% | 14.6% | 1.9% | 4.82 | 3.73 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 42 | 0 | 43 | 196 | 50 | 36 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.7% | 20.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 2.93 | 3.91 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 42 | 0 | 43 | 196 | 50 | 36 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.5% | 18.4% | 7.1% | 0.0% | 2.93 | 3.29 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 7 | 0 | 6 | 36 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | — | — | — | — | 8.53 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | KC | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 55 | 52 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 20.8% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 5.58 | 5.58 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | KC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 20.8% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 5.58 | 5.58 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | KC | — | — | 66 | 287 | 59 | 62 | 8 | — | — | 20.7% | 21.6% | -0.9% | 2.8% | 5.86 | 5.04 | -0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | KC | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 22.1% | 20.8% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 5.58 | 5.20 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | KC | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 54 | 48 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 19.8% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 5.50 | 5.53 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | KC | 52 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 51 | 45 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 19.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 5.51 | 5.57 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | KC | 21 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 21 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 19.8% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 5.50 | 5.53 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | KC | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 29 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 19.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 5.51 | 5.57 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 51 | 0 | 54 | 226 | 50 | 44 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 19.4% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 5.51 | 5.18 | -0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 187 | 164 | 22 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 19.4% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 5.51 | 5.18 | +0.5 | ||
| Career | — | 130 | 4 | 158 | 751 | 178 | 153 | 20 | 3% | 1.2 | 23.7% | 20.3% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 4.90 | 5.13 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 165 | 5 | 200 | 951 | 225 | 193 | 25 | 3% | 1.2 | 23.7% | 20.3% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 4.90 | 5.13 | +0.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Christian Chamberlain (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.58 | 22.1% | 20.8% | 2.4% | — | 5.55 | 22.0% | 2.6% | 113 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Nick Lee L 2024 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.73 | 19.0% | 19.7% | 1.4% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 102 | 83 |
| Brian Marconi L 2024 · 4.96 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.96 | 20.3% | 18.2% | 2.3% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.61 | 101 | 82 |
| Justin King L 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.42 | 19.9% | 20.5% | 0.7% | .307 | 5.56 | 24.2% | 0.6% | 15 | +1.14 | 3.20 | 111 | 80 |
| Julian Bosnic L 2024 · 5.01 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.01 | 20.0% | 19.6% | 2.0% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.28 | 136 | 80 |
| Brian Moran L 2025 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.66 | 17.7% | 14.1% | 2.3% | .318 | 2.63 | 25.0% | 17.4% | 80 | -2.03 | 1.67 | 421 | 80 |
| Trey Jeans L 2025 · 5.12 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.12 | 22.3% | 16.5% | 3.3% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.74 | 111 | 79 |
| Graeme Stinson L 2024 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.75 | 19.5% | 15.6% | 2.4% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 146 | 77 |
| Austin Briggs L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.44 | 19.8% | 18.0% | 1.3% | .307 | 5.56 | 12.1% | -8.9% | 32 | +1.12 | 3.62 | 187 | 75 |
| C.J. Widger L 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.25 | 17.5% | 18.8% | 2.3% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.71 | 105 | 75 |
| Gil Luna L 2025 · 5.82 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.82 | 20.6% | 28.0% | 1.7% | .237 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.57 | 113 | 75 |
| Ty Madrigal L 2024 · 5.86 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.86 | 17.6% | 15.2% | 4.2% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.64 | 107 | 75 |
| Chandler Jozwiak L 2024 · 5.23 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.23 | 16.9% | 15.3% | 2.9% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.88 | 161 | 75 |
| Sean Keselica L 2025 · 4.53 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.53 | 18.0% | 14.5% | 2.0% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.77 | 235 | 75 |
| Trey Cumbie L 2025 · 5.07 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.07 | 23.3% | 16.1% | 3.5% | .215 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 152 | 75 |
| Luke Westphal L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.63 | 21.2% | 19.7% | 1.5% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.97 | 294 | 75 |
| Igor Gil L 2024 · 4.90 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.90 | 23.4% | 22.5% | 1.7% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 102 | 74 |
| Davis Schwab L 2024 · 5.86 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.86 | 20.3% | 18.7% | 3.8% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 114 | 74 |
| Justin Wright L 2025 · 4.48 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.48 | 14.7% | 13.7% | 1.6% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.28 | 109 | 74 |
| Andrew Mitchell L 2026 · 6.14 FIP | 27 | SU | 6.14 | 18.2% | 17.0% | 4.4% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 119 | 74 |
| Hunter Cervenka L 2026 · 6.12 FIP | 27 | SU | 6.12 | 18.9% | 15.0% | 4.9% | .282 | 3.22 | 25.9% | 15.0% | 81 | -2.90 | 3.20 | 194 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 57 | 22.0% | 19.9% | 1.00 | 5.53 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |
| Jake Diekman ('24) | 9 | 51 | 28.6% | 13.8% | 0.91 | 4.07 |