Christian Chamberlain

P Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 28 LHP 5'10" / 173 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	24	MIX2 levels	46	56	4.82	3.73	32.2%	17.6%	—	K 26.7% · BB 17.5% · FIP 4.29
2025	26	AANorthwest Ark…	42	43	2.93	3.29	25.5%	18.4%	—	K 20.7% · BB 20.2% · FIP 3.91
2026	27	AANorthwest Ark…	7	6	8.53	10.68	11.1%	27.8%	—	K 11.1% · BB 27.8% · FIP 8.73
2027PROJ	28	MLBKC	1	1	5.68	5.68	21.2%	20.0%	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBKC	12	13	5.62	5.68	21.2%	19.1%	-0.2
2029PROJ51% MLB	30	MLBKC	16	17	5.66	5.75	21.0%	18.7%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control20Command35

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsStephen Randolph (age 29) · Braulio Lara (age 28) · Trey Jeans (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125133vR 141

ERA5.68

FIP5.68

K%21.2%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%1.2%

Proj IP59

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL2020

CMD3535

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	2	0	4	15	6	1	0	0%	1.8	40.0%	6.7%	33.3%	0.0%	4.91	0.57	—
2021	22	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	2	0	4	15	6	1	0	0%	1.8	40.0%	6.7%	33.3%	0.0%	4.91	0.65	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	4	49	243	72	47	9	12%	1.5	23.4%	21.7%	1.7%	4.6%	6.24	6.42	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	4	49	243	72	47	9	12%	1.5	29.6%	19.3%	10.3%	3.7%	6.24	5.43	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	56	261	84	46	5	0%	1.2	26.7%	17.5%	9.2%	2.2%	4.82	4.29	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	56	261	84	46	5	0%	1.2	32.2%	17.6%	14.6%	1.9%	4.82	3.73	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	42	0	43	196	50	36	0	0%	1.0	20.7%	20.2%	0.5%	0.0%	2.93	3.91	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	42	0	43	196	50	36	0	0%	1.0	20.7%	20.2%	0.5%	0.0%	2.93	3.91	—
2025	26	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	42	0	43	196	50	36	0	0%	1.0	25.5%	18.4%	7.1%	0.0%	2.93	3.29	—
2026	27	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	7	0	6	36	4	10	2	0%	0.9	11.1%	27.8%	-16.7%	5.6%	8.53	8.73	—
2026	27	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	7	0	6	36	4	10	2	0%	0.9	11.1%	27.8%	-16.7%	5.6%	8.53	8.73	—
2026	27	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	7	0	6	36	4	10	2	0%	0.9	11.1%	27.8%	-16.7%	5.6%	8.53	10.68	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	KC	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	21.2%	20.0%	1.2%	2.7%	5.68	5.68	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	KC	39	0	41	172	37	33	5	0%	1.0	21.2%	19.1%	2.1%	2.8%	5.62	5.68	-0.5
2029	30	MLB MLE	KC	31	0	33	139	29	26	4	0%	1.1	21.0%	18.7%	2.3%	3.1%	5.66	5.75	-0.4
2028	29	MLB CTX	KC	12	0	13	55	12	11	2	0%	1.1	21.2%	19.1%	2.1%	2.8%	5.62	5.68	-0.2
2029	30	MLB CTX	KC	16	0	17	72	15	13	2	0%	1.1	21.0%	18.7%	2.3%	3.1%	5.66	5.75	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		28	0	30	125	26	24	4	0%	1.1	21.1%	18.9%	2.2%	3.0%	5.64	5.34	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	175	162	27	0%	1.1	21.1%	18.9%	2.2%	3.0%	5.64	5.34	-1.8
Career	—	MLE		130	4	158	751	177	149	19	3%	1.2	23.6%	19.9%	3.7%	2.5%	4.90	5.02	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		165	5	200	951	224	189	24	3%	1.2	23.6%	19.9%	3.7%	2.5%	4.90	5.02	-2.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 6 IPFIP 8.73 → 9.87 (+1.14)K% 11.1% → 9.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	11.11%	—	×0.810	9.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	27.78%	—	×1.100	30.56%
HR / BF /BF	5.56%	÷1.000	×1.200	6.67%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 8.73 → 9.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 43 IPFIP 3.27 → 3.91 (+0.64)K% 25.5% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.51%	—	×0.810	20.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.37%	—	×1.100	20.20%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.077	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.27 → 3.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 32 IPFIP 2.11 → 2.89 (+0.78)K% 36.0% → 29.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.03%	—	×0.810	29.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.18%	—	×1.100	17.79%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.872	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.11 → 2.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 24 IPFIP 5.36 → 5.82 (+0.46)K% 28.0% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.00%	—	×0.860	24.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.20%	—	×0.900	17.28%
HR / BF /BF	4.00%	÷0.942	×1.100	4.67%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 5.36 → 5.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 28 IPFIP 5.00 → 6.06 (+1.06)K% 22.1% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.15%	—	×0.810	17.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.12%	—	×1.100	19.93%
HR / BF /BF	2.68%	÷0.905	×1.200	3.56%

Result: FIP 5.00 → 6.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 21 IPFIP 5.21 → 6.99 (+1.78)K% 41.5% → 31.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	41.49%	—	×0.770	31.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	21.28%	—	×1.150	24.47%
HR / BF /BF	5.32%	÷1.047	×1.250	6.35%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 109).

Result: FIP 5.21 → 6.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Christian Chamberlain (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.68	21.2%	20.0%	2.7%	—	5.71	21.1%	2.2%	74	+0.03	—	—	—
Stephen Randolph L 2003 · 4.83 FIP	29	SU	4.83	18.5%	14.8%	2.6%	.247	5.69	15.8%	-3.0%	82	+0.86	4.83	155	85
Braulio Lara L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	28	SU	5.80	19.8%	17.8%	3.9%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	118	81
Trey Jeans L 2022 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	22.3%	16.5%	3.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.74	111	76
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	76
Jack Leathersich L 2018 · 4.55 FIP	28	SU	4.55	21.7%	19.8%	1.4%	.224	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	101	75
Bryan Harper L 2018 · 4.63 FIP	28	SU	4.63	14.9%	13.9%	1.9%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	133	75
Travis Bergen L 2022 · 4.93 FIP	28	SU	4.93	19.3%	20.5%	1.6%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	143	74
Luke Westphal L 2016 · 4.69 FIP	27	SU	4.69	21.2%	19.7%	1.6%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	294	74
Andrew Mitchell L 2022 · 6.04 FIP	27	SU	6.04	18.2%	17.0%	4.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	2.51	119	73
Trey Cumbie L 2022 · 5.07 FIP	26	SU	5.07	23.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.215	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	152	72
Joey Marciano L 2023 · 4.90 FIP	28	SU	4.90	20.0%	17.3%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	330	72
Kit Scheetz L 2021 · 5.08 FIP	27	SU	5.08	16.2%	13.6%	2.9%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.34	195	72
Mitchell Tyranski L 2024 · 4.90 FIP	26	SU	4.90	21.0%	12.3%	3.7%	.234	3.46	20.5%	4.0%	57	-1.44	3.46	145	71
Matt Thornton L 2005 · 5.92 FIP	28	SU	5.92	21.8%	15.3%	5.0%	.270	2.98	24.4%	17.2%	178	-2.94	1.71	663	71
Josh Osich L 2017 · 5.00 FIP	28	SU	5.00	21.4%	12.9%	3.8%	.328	4.47	21.1%	14.1%	143	-0.53	3.41	315	70
Keith Hessler L 2017 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	15.5%	11.8%	3.5%	.324	4.96	19.8%	6.5%	53	-0.22	3.31	228	70
Cam Booser L 2022 · 6.54 FIP	30	SU	6.54	20.8%	20.7%	4.7%	.350	4.49	24.8%	15.2%	157	-2.05	2.76	314	69
Armando Almanza L 2001 · 5.21 FIP	28	SU	5.21	25.3%	14.0%	4.5%	.260	4.73	25.3%	14.7%	108	-0.48	2.90	211	69
Evan Lee L 2023 · 5.38 FIP	26	SU	5.38	17.2%	25.3%	0.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	129	69
Will Lamb L 2017 · 5.78 FIP	26	SU	5.78	20.0%	14.0%	4.7%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	178	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	44	21.2%	19.4%	1.09	5.66
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*