Tommy Sommer
P
Birmingham Barons
+0.4
WAR
Age 27
LHP
6'4" / 220 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.6 · 2029
ERA4.66
FIP4.66
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.3%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%12.0%
IP82
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2029
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | ACL White Sox | 8 | 6 | 25 | 94 | 33 | 7 | 3 | 23.9% | 9.3% | 4.2% | 2.16 | 4.58 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 24 | 23 | 123 | 489 | 129 | 41 | 12 | 19.8% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 2.71 | 4.26 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 21 | 18 | 82 | 364 | 76 | 54 | 18 | 16.7% | 16.4% | 5.9% | 5.49 | 6.99 | -1.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 15 | 15 | 82 | 346 | 77 | 36 | 11 | 22.4% | 10.3% | 3.2% | 4.66 | 4.66 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 15 | 15 | 83 | 350 | 78 | 35 | 11 | 22.3% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.65 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 15 | 15 | 81 | 342 | 76 | 34 | 11 | 22.1% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.66 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 14 | 14 | 78 | 331 | 79 | 30 | 11 | 23.9% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 4.51 | 4.43 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 14 | 14 | 76 | 320 | 76 | 30 | 11 | 23.7% | 9.3% | 3.4% | 4.51 | 4.51 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 13 | 13 | 73 | 307 | 72 | 29 | 11 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 4.56 | 4.59 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | CWS | 13 | 13 | 70 | 293 | 68 | 28 | 10 | 23.1% | 9.7% | 3.5% | 4.64 | 4.69 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | CWS | 12 | 12 | 66 | 279 | 63 | 27 | 10 | 22.7% | 9.8% | 3.6% | 4.74 | 4.80 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | CWS | 11 | 11 | 62 | 263 | 59 | 26 | 10 | 22.3% | 10.1% | 3.7% | 4.85 | 4.92 | +0.0 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | CWS | 58 | — | 58 | 246 | 54 | 25 | 9 | 21.9% | 10.3% | 3.9% | 4.97 | 5.06 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 53 | 47 | 230 | 947 | 180 | 117 | 39 | 19.0% | 12.3% | 4.2% | 3.64 | 5.34 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 41 | 200 | 823 | 157 | 102 | 34 | 19.0% | 12.3% | 4.2% | 3.64 | 5.34 | -0.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tommy Sommer (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.66 | 22.4% | 10.3% | 3.2% | — | 4.58 | 22.7% | 13.0% | 242 | -0.08 | — | — | — |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.83 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .311 | 4.07 | 17.1% | 9.9% | 231 | -0.76 | 3.74 | 454 | 83 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2026 · 5.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.44 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 5.3% | .289 | 5.28 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 26 | -0.16 | 5.28 | 128 | 82 |
| Miguel Pena L 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.03 | 16.8% | 8.2% | 2.4% | .288 | 5.12 | 16.0% | 9.0% | 68 | +1.09 | 2.93 | 282 | 79 |
| Ryan Bollinger L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.57 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 112 | 78 |
| Danny Wirchansky L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.53 | 16.2% | 7.4% | 3.4% | .246 | 5.93 | 13.0% | 0.2% | 68 | +1.40 | 4.53 | 179 | 78 |
| Felix Doubront L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.97 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .304 | 4.04 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 42 | +0.07 | 3.44 | 291 | 78 |
| Edgar Olmos L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.66 | 18.9% | 9.7% | 1.7% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 203 | 77 |
| Adam Laskey L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.28 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 2.7% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 310 | 77 |
| Charlie McDaniel L 2023 · 3.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.80 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.3% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 100 | 77 |
| Justin Marks L 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.59 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .323 | 3.91 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.68 | 3.82 | 324 | 76 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.14 | 16.2% | 9.2% | 2.3% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 300 | 75 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2023 · 5.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.02 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.02 | 116 | 74 |
| Misael Siverio L 2025 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.90 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 1.6% | .343 | 4.28 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 63 | +0.38 | 3.90 | 185 | 74 |
| Manny Banuelos L 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.48 | 23.8% | 8.9% | 2.3% | .338 | 5.81 | 18.7% | 5.9% | 51 | +2.33 | 2.94 | 486 | 74 |
| Christian MacLeod L 2024 · 3.87 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.87 | 19.2% | 12.8% | 1.4% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 236 | 73 |
| Chipper Smith L 2024 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 109 | 73 |
| Jared Koenig L 2026 · 5.17 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.17 | 16.0% | 9.4% | 4.1% | .270 | 3.79 | 20.2% | 12.2% | 267 | -1.38 | 2.72 | 455 | 73 |
| Alex Troop L 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.06 | 17.8% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .275 | 5.20 | 17.3% | 10.5% | 43 | +0.14 | 2.92 | 379 | 73 |
| Jonathan Bermúdez L 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.66 | 21.5% | 10.5% | 3.7% | .310 | 4.85 | 19.3% | 6.6% | 101 | +0.19 | 3.26 | 469 | 72 |
| Steven Brault L 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.47 | 19.8% | 10.1% | 3.2% | .301 | 3.80 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 70 | -0.67 | 3.12 | 691 | 72 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.8M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.3M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | — | — | — |
| Totals | $11M | $9M | -$2M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.