Tommy Sommer
P
Birmingham Barons
Age 27
LHP
6'4" / 220 lbs
AA
peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 57 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106115vR 125
ERA4.66
FIP4.66
K%22.4%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%12.0%
ROS IP57
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | ACL White Sox | 8 | 6 | 25 | 94 | 33 | 7 | 3 | 75% | 3.1 | 23.9% | 9.3% | 14.6% | 4.2% | 2.16 | 4.59 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | ACL White Sox | 8 | 6 | 25 | 94 | 33 | 7 | 3 | 75% | 3.1 | 35.1% | 7.4% | 27.7% | 3.2% | 2.16 | 2.86 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 23 | 123 | 489 | 129 | 41 | 12 | 96% | 5.1 | 19.8% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 2.8% | 2.71 | 4.20 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 23 | 123 | 489 | 129 | 41 | 12 | 96% | 5.1 | 26.4% | 8.4% | 18.0% | 2.5% | 2.71 | 3.27 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 18 | 82 | 364 | 76 | 54 | 18 | 86% | 3.9 | 16.7% | 16.4% | 0.3% | 5.8% | 5.49 | 6.95 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 18 | 82 | 364 | 76 | 54 | 18 | 86% | 3.9 | 20.9% | 14.8% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.49 | 6.08 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 10 | 10 | 57 | 242 | 54 | 25 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.4% | 10.3% | 12.0% | 3.2% | 4.66 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 9 | 9 | 56 | 235 | 53 | 24 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.3% | 10.4% | 12.0% | 3.3% | 4.68 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 9 | 9 | 53 | 225 | 50 | 24 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 3.4% | 4.75 | 4.81 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 4 | 4 | 21 | 89 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 5.2 | 22.3% | 10.4% | 12.0% | 3.3% | 4.68 | 4.71 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 5 | 5 | 30 | 127 | 28 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 3.4% | 4.75 | 4.81 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 8 | 8 | 51 | 213 | 47 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 6.3 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 3.4% | 4.72 | 4.39 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 186 | 87 | 28 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 3.4% | 4.72 | 4.39 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 53 | 47 | 230 | 947 | 180 | 117 | 39 | 89% | 4.3 | 19.0% | 12.3% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 3.64 | 5.30 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 41 | 200 | 823 | 156 | 101 | 34 | 89% | 4.3 | 19.0% | 12.3% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 3.64 | 5.30 | +0.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tommy Sommer (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.66 | 22.4% | 10.3% | 3.2% | — | 4.76 | 22.3% | 11.8% | 109 | +0.10 | — | — | — |
| Mike Minor L 2027 · 5.50 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.50 | 19.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .330 | 3.78 | 23.2% | 16.4% | 443 | -1.72 | 2.42 | 807 | 75 |
| Ben Holmes L 2026 · 5.63 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.63 | 19.7% | 11.1% | 5.1% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 451 | 74 |
| Matt Lujan L 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.90 | 18.5% | 11.3% | 3.5% | .319 | 5.13 | 14.3% | 7.9% | 70 | +0.23 | 4.25 | 227 | 74 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.27 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 5.0% | .289 | 5.37 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 26 | +0.10 | 5.27 | 128 | 71 |
| Taylor Varnell L 2025 · 4.52 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.52 | 20.1% | 10.3% | 3.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.89 | 248 | 71 |
| Miguel Pena L 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.14 | 16.8% | 8.2% | 2.6% | .288 | 5.94 | 16.0% | 9.0% | 68 | +1.80 | 2.86 | 282 | 70 |
| Kohl Drake L 2025 · 5.13 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.13 | 17.0% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 297 | 70 |
| Pete Hansen L 2025 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.23 | 19.4% | 8.9% | 3.0% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 437 | 70 |
| Felix Doubront L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.87 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.2% | .304 | 4.45 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 42 | +0.58 | 3.39 | 291 | 70 |
| Marlon Arias L 2029 · 4.14 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.14 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.89 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.25 | 3.89 | 154 | 70 |
| Braeden Fausnaught L 2025 · 4.91 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.91 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 4.2% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.57 | 242 | 69 |
| Alex Troop L 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.84 | 17.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .275 | 5.64 | 17.3% | 10.5% | 43 | +0.80 | 2.96 | 379 | 69 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2024 · 4.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.77 | 18.0% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .274 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.77 | 154 | 69 |
| Justin Marks L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .323 | 3.78 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.78 | 3.75 | 324 | 69 |
| Chipper Smith L 2024 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.83 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 109 | 69 |
| Jonathan Bermúdez L 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.51 | 21.5% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .310 | 4.82 | 19.3% | 6.6% | 101 | +0.31 | 3.22 | 469 | 68 |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.53 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 3.3% | .311 | 4.31 | 17.2% | 9.9% | 300 | -0.22 | 3.88 | 523 | 68 |
| Adam Laskey L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.39 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 310 | 68 |
| Misael Siverio L 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.00 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 1.7% | .343 | 4.52 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 63 | +0.52 | 4.00 | 185 | 68 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.13 | 16.2% | 9.2% | 2.2% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 300 | 68 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 55 | 22.3% | 10.4% | 1.28 | 4.70 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |