Alex Troop — OGILVIE

Alex Troop P Tennessee Smokies

Age 30 LHP 6'5" / 210 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107115vR 123

ERA4.75

FIP4.75

K%19.0%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%10.2%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 3 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	1	7	24	6	0	1	33%	2.3	25.0%	0.0%	25.0%	4.2%	1.29	3.28	—
2017	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	1	7	24	6	0	1	33%	2.3	25.0%	0.0%	25.0%	4.2%	1.29	3.24	—
2018	22	A MLE	Hagerstown Suns	4	3	17	79	16	5	2	75%	4.2	15.0%	7.5%	7.5%	3.0%	4.76	4.41	—
2018	22	A RAW	Hagerstown Suns	4	3	17	79	16	5	2	75%	4.2	20.3%	6.3%	13.9%	2.5%	4.76	3.63	—
2019	23	A MLE	Hagerstown Suns	11	0	33	123	34	3	2	0%	3.0	20.5%	2.9%	17.6%	2.2%	2.18	2.93	—
2019	23	A RAW	Hagerstown Suns	11	0	33	123	34	3	2	0%	3.0	27.6%	2.4%	25.2%	1.6%	2.18	2.10	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	8	83	345	100	15	9	29%	3.0	21.0%	5.5%	15.5%	4.0%	3.35	4.22	—
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	8	83	345	100	15	9	29%	3.0	29.0%	4.3%	24.6%	2.6%	3.35	2.64	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	17	113	479	130	31	21	59%	3.9	22.1%	6.9%	15.2%	5.4%	4.78	5.08	—
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	17	113	479	130	31	21	59%	3.9	27.1%	6.5%	20.7%	4.4%	4.78	4.04	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	20	105	463	98	47	17	74%	3.9	17.8%	10.9%	6.8%	3.7%	5.16	5.03	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	20	105	463	98	47	17	74%	3.9	17.8%	10.9%	6.8%	3.7%	5.16	5.03	—
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	20	105	463	98	47	17	74%	3.9	21.2%	10.2%	11.0%	3.7%	5.16	4.69	—
2024	28	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	13	5	43	178	38	11	6	38%	3.3	17.3%	6.8%	10.5%	4.7%	4.60	5.10	—
2024	28	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	13	5	43	178	38	11	6	38%	3.3	17.3%	6.8%	10.5%	4.7%	4.60	5.10	—
2024	28	AA RAW	Tennessee Smokies	13	5	43	178	38	11	6	38%	3.3	21.3%	6.2%	15.2%	3.4%	4.60	3.91	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	CHC	3	0	3	13	2	1	0	0%	1.0	19.0%	8.8%	10.2%	3.2%	4.75	4.75	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	CHC	29	0	31	130	25	12	4	0%	1.1	19.1%	9.2%	9.9%	3.4%	4.83	4.91	-0.1
2027	31	MLB CTX	CHC	10	0	10	42	8	4	1	0%	1.0	19.1%	9.2%	9.9%	3.4%	4.83	4.91	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	41	8	4	1	0%	1.1	19.1%	9.2%	9.9%	3.4%	4.83	4.53	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	165	83	21	0%	1.1	19.1%	9.2%	9.9%	3.4%	4.83	4.53	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		115	54	401	1691	335	124	71	47%	3.5	19.8%	7.4%	12.4%	4.2%	4.29	4.68	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	27	200	843	167	62	36	47%	3.5	19.8%	7.4%	12.4%	4.2%	4.29	4.68	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Troop (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.75	19.0%	8.8%	3.2%	—	4.91	19.1%	9.9%	31	+0.16	—	—	—
Travis Blackley L 2015 · 4.91 FIP	32	SP-	4.91	15.4%	6.4%	4.2%	.324	4.45	10.5%	0.0%	137	-0.46	3.85	225	76
Roy Merritt L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	30	SP-	3.93	13.3%	5.9%	2.2%	.293	3.95	16.2%	10.4%	116	+0.02	3.93	129	74
Luke Westphal L 2021 · 4.70 FIP	32	SP-	4.70	22.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.321	4.59	21.7%	7.5%	95	-0.11	2.97	294	73
Aaron Laffey L 2015 · 4.12 FIP	30	SW	4.12	13.5%	9.7%	1.7%	.318	4.39	12.5%	5.2%	192	+0.27	3.51	282	72
Tyler Alexander L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	29	SW	5.27	15.7%	10.7%	3.9%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	5.27	128	70
Brian Flynn L 2019 · 4.49 FIP	29	SW	4.49	17.7%	10.1%	2.9%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	277	69
Kelvin Marte L 2017 · 4.74 FIP	29	SW	4.74	16.1%	11.4%	2.8%	.300	5.25	12.0%	1.2%	71	+0.51	3.44	360	67
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	66
Chris Narveson L 2015 · 4.79 FIP	33	SW	4.79	23.6%	8.0%	4.9%	.333	4.59	14.1%	4.5%	193	-0.20	4.59	249	62
Andy Otero L 2022 · 4.36 FIP	30	SW	4.36	14.5%	8.9%	2.5%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	2.86	200	62
Kyle Hunter L 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SU	4.50	14.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	188	62
James Russell L 2016 · 4.80 FIP	30	SW	4.80	12.4%	5.7%	3.7%	.286	3.86	16.8%	13.2%	119	-0.94	2.66	233	62
Enrique Lechuga L 2015 · 4.70 FIP	29	SP-	4.70	10.0%	10.5%	2.0%	.354	3.78	10.5%	4.4%	59	-0.92	3.78	137	62
Miguel Pena L 2019 · 5.08 FIP	28	SW	5.08	16.0%	7.0%	4.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	2.98	282	62
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	60
Jack Snodgrass L 2016 · 5.01 FIP	28	SP-	5.01	15.7%	10.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.66	118	60
Mike Kickham L 2019 · 4.12 FIP	30	SW	4.12	19.3%	9.6%	2.6%	.311	5.98	18.8%	8.7%	61	+1.86	3.00	368	60
Matt Lujan L 2017 · 4.69 FIP	28	SP-	4.69	14.3%	6.4%	3.6%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	227	59
Logan Darnell L 2019 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP-	3.97	12.8%	6.1%	2.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	430	59
Daniel Camarena L 2023 · 4.94 FIP	30	SP-	4.94	14.0%	5.6%	4.2%	.342	6.84	12.8%	2.0%	51	+1.90	3.76	674	59

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	32	19.0%	9.0%	1.28	4.79
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79