Alex Troop
P
Tennessee Smokies
Age 30
LHP
6'5" / 210 lbs
AA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 33 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 105114vR 123
ERA4.61
FIP4.61
K%21.5%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%12.5%
ROS IP33
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 33 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 3 | 1 | 7 | 24 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 33% | 2.3 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 25.0% | 4.2% | 1.29 | 3.28 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 3 | 1 | 7 | 24 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 33% | 2.3 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 25.0% | 4.2% | 1.29 | 3.24 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A | Hagerstown Suns | 4 | 3 | 17 | 79 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 75% | 4.2 | 15.0% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 2.7% | 4.76 | 4.27 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A | Hagerstown Suns | 4 | 3 | 17 | 79 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 75% | 4.2 | 20.3% | 6.3% | 13.9% | 2.5% | 4.76 | 3.63 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A | Hagerstown Suns | 11 | 0 | 33 | 123 | 34 | 3 | 2 | 0% | 3.0 | 20.5% | 2.9% | 17.6% | 2.2% | 2.18 | 2.96 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A | Hagerstown Suns | 11 | 0 | 33 | 123 | 34 | 3 | 2 | 0% | 3.0 | 27.6% | 2.4% | 25.2% | 1.6% | 2.18 | 2.10 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 8 | 83 | 345 | 100 | 15 | 9 | 29% | 3.0 | 21.0% | 5.5% | 15.5% | 4.5% | 3.35 | 4.47 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 8 | 83 | 345 | 100 | 15 | 9 | 29% | 3.0 | 29.0% | 4.3% | 24.6% | 2.6% | 3.35 | 2.64 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 17 | 113 | 479 | 130 | 31 | 21 | 59% | 3.9 | 22.1% | 6.9% | 15.2% | 5.5% | 4.78 | 5.14 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 17 | 113 | 479 | 130 | 31 | 21 | 59% | 3.9 | 27.1% | 6.5% | 20.7% | 4.4% | 4.78 | 4.04 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 20 | 105 | 463 | 98 | 47 | 17 | 74% | 3.9 | 17.8% | 10.9% | 6.8% | 3.4% | 5.16 | 4.84 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 20 | 105 | 463 | 98 | 47 | 17 | 74% | 3.9 | 21.2% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 3.7% | 5.16 | 4.69 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 13 | 5 | 43 | 178 | 38 | 11 | 6 | 38% | 3.3 | 17.3% | 6.8% | 10.5% | 5.7% | 4.60 | 5.64 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 13 | 5 | 43 | 178 | 38 | 11 | 6 | 38% | 3.3 | 21.3% | 6.2% | 15.2% | 3.4% | 4.60 | 3.91 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 32 | 0 | 33 | 140 | 30 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.5% | 9.0% | 12.5% | 3.3% | 4.61 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 29 | 0 | 31 | 130 | 28 | 12 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 9.4% | 11.9% | 3.5% | 4.70 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 10 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 9.4% | 11.9% | 3.5% | 4.70 | 4.78 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 9 | 0 | 10 | 41 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 9.4% | 11.9% | 3.5% | 4.70 | 4.40 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 186 | 83 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 9.4% | 11.9% | 3.5% | 4.70 | 4.40 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 115 | 54 | 401 | 1691 | 335 | 124 | 74 | 47% | 3.5 | 19.8% | 7.4% | 12.4% | 4.3% | 4.29 | 4.75 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 57 | 27 | 200 | 843 | 167 | 62 | 37 | 47% | 3.5 | 19.8% | 7.4% | 12.4% | 4.3% | 4.29 | 4.75 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alex Troop (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.61 | 21.5% | 9.0% | 3.3% | — | 4.78 | 21.3% | 11.9% | 31 | +0.17 | — | — | — |
| Luke Westphal L 2028 · 4.48 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.48 | 22.7% | 13.1% | 3.0% | .321 | 4.52 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 95 | +0.04 | 2.97 | 294 | 74 |
| Travis Blackley L 2028 · 4.97 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.97 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.3% | .324 | 4.50 | 10.5% | 0.0% | 137 | -0.47 | 3.84 | 225 | 72 |
| Brian Flynn L 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.46 | 17.7% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 277 | 70 |
| Hector Hernandez L 2024 · 3.57 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.57 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 121 | 70 |
| Roy Merritt L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.01 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.3% | .293 | 3.88 | 16.2% | 10.4% | 116 | -0.13 | 3.88 | 129 | 68 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2025 · 5.37 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.37 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 4.1% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.27 | 128 | 66 |
| Aaron Laffey L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.04 | 13.5% | 9.7% | 1.6% | .318 | 4.37 | 12.5% | 5.2% | 192 | +0.33 | 3.53 | 282 | 66 |
| Chris Narveson L 2029 · 4.83 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.83 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | .333 | 4.57 | 14.1% | 4.5% | 193 | -0.26 | 4.40 | 249 | 65 |
| Kelvin Marte L 2025 · 4.87 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.87 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 3.1% | .300 | 5.18 | 12.0% | 1.2% | 71 | +0.31 | 3.50 | 360 | 64 |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.86 | 17.6% | 7.5% | 4.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 523 | 63 |
| David Huff L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.63 | 17.1% | 3.8% | 2.7% | .271 | 4.00 | 19.5% | 14.6% | 52 | +0.37 | 3.63 | 158 | 62 |
| Everett Teaford L 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 103 | 62 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.83 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 175 | 60 |
| Mike Kickham L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.00 | 19.3% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .311 | 5.91 | 18.8% | 8.7% | 61 | +1.91 | 3.00 | 368 | 59 |
| Andy Otero L 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.38 | 14.5% | 8.9% | 2.5% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 200 | 59 |
| Mike Montgomery L 2026 · 5.32 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.32 | 17.2% | 8.2% | 4.8% | .337 | 4.73 | 15.6% | 4.4% | 86 | -0.59 | 3.36 | 764 | 59 |
| Kyle Hunter L 2024 · 4.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.47 | 14.0% | 6.1% | 3.2% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.44 | 188 | 59 |
| Max Green L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.33 | 15.2% | 5.9% | 3.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 169 | 58 |
| Matt Moore L 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.79 | 18.3% | 8.5% | 3.9% | .334 | 5.49 | 19.6% | 8.8% | 92 | +0.70 | 2.82 | 845 | 58 |
| James Russell L 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.94 | 12.4% | 5.7% | 3.9% | .286 | 3.83 | 16.8% | 13.2% | 119 | -1.11 | 2.69 | 233 | 57 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 32 | 21.4% | 9.2% | 1.31 | 4.65 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |