Ben Holmes
P
Birmingham Barons
+0.2
WAR
Age 34
LHP
6'1" / 195 lbs
AA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.34
FIP4.34
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.4%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%14.3%
IP23
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | A+ | Jupiter Hammerheads | 27 | 24 | 129 | 563 | 100 | 47 | 11 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.9% | 4.55 | 4.25 | +1.5 |
| 2016 | 24 | A+ | Jupiter Hammerheads | 35 | 1 | 91 | 354 | 79 | 31 | 4 | 16.8% | 10.2% | 1.0% | 1.18 | 3.53 | +1.8 |
| 2017 | 25 | A+ | Jupiter Hammerheads | 35 | 7 | 73 | 313 | 63 | 18 | 2 | 15.5% | 6.6% | 0.8% | 4.17 | 3.09 | +1.6 |
| 2018 | 26 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 20 | 9 | 67 | 266 | 64 | 22 | 6 | 19.1% | 9.3% | 2.5% | 2.83 | 4.05 | +0.7 |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA | Oklahoma City Dodgers | 14 | 14 | 61 | 277 | 64 | 29 | 12 | 19.7% | 11.1% | 5.0% | 5.31 | 5.57 | -0.4 |
| 2021 | 29 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 2 | 2 | 10 | 43 | 9 | 8 | 3 | — | — | — | 6.52 | — | — |
| 2023 | 31 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 31 | 0 | 36 | 161 | 42 | 18 | 7 | 23.5% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 5.25 | 5.27 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | CWS | 23 | — | 23 | 95 | 22 | 9 | 3 | 23.4% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 4.34 | 4.34 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | CWS | 21 | — | 21 | 90 | 21 | 8 | 3 | 23.0% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 4.41 | 4.46 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 164 | 57 | 467 | 1977 | 335 | 188 | 50 | 16.9% | 9.5% | 2.5% | 3.78 | 4.25 | +5.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 70 | 24 | 200 | 847 | 144 | 81 | 21 | 16.9% | 9.5% | 2.5% | 3.78 | 4.25 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ben Holmes (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.34 | 23.4% | 9.1% | 3.1% | — | 4.46 | 23.0% | 13.7% | 21 | +0.12 | — | — | — |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.97 | 20.0% | 8.0% | 4.6% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 181 | 82 |
| Tony Sipp L 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.84 | 23.6% | 8.5% | 4.8% | .269 | 2.55 | 24.9% | 15.9% | 60 | -2.29 | 2.19 | 195 | 80 |
| Boone Logan L 2025 · 5.22 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.22 | 24.1% | 12.1% | 4.8% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.64 | 113 | 79 |
| Sean Doolittle L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.02 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 3.3% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.42 | 259 | 78 |
| Oliver Pérez L 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.32 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .296 | 2.55 | 29.1% | 23.7% | 120 | -0.77 | 1.56 | 219 | 75 |
| Ryan Buchter L 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.02 | 22.9% | 13.2% | 4.0% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 296 | 74 |
| Neal Cotts L 2027 · 4.64 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.64 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 4.4% | .257 | 3.78 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 93 | -0.86 | 3.21 | 156 | 74 |
| Jerry Blevins L 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.48 | 21.8% | 11.2% | 3.3% | .250 | 3.98 | 26.2% | 16.3% | 32 | -0.50 | 2.66 | 166 | 74 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.78 | 14.8% | 7.1% | 1.9% | .315 | 3.99 | 13.3% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.21 | 3.51 | 138 | 73 |
| Brian Duensing L 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.17 | 23.7% | 6.6% | 2.2% | .301 | 5.84 | 11.7% | -0.7% | 51 | +2.67 | 2.63 | 198 | 70 |
| Heriberto Ruelas L 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.75 | 15.0% | 8.9% | 1.4% | .310 | 3.42 | 17.2% | 10.5% | 49 | -0.33 | 2.97 | 117 | 69 |
| Brady Feigl L 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.60 | 22.7% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 212 | 68 |
| Tony Watson L 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.57 | 17.7% | 4.8% | 4.3% | .276 | 3.54 | 19.8% | 13.1% | 75 | -1.03 | 2.22 | 405 | 68 |
| Dan Runzler L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.83 | 16.0% | 13.0% | 2.6% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 127 | 68 |
| Luke Westphal L 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.42 | 24.2% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .302 | 5.50 | 16.1% | -3.1% | 26 | +1.08 | 2.97 | 294 | 67 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.03 | 17.1% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .376 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 280 | 67 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.45 | 18.5% | 4.9% | 2.3% | .283 | 4.23 | 25.7% | 18.0% | 79 | +0.78 | 3.45 | 512 | 67 |
| Craig Breslow L 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.04 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 4.6% | .279 | 4.48 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 94 | -0.56 | 4.28 | 159 | 67 |
| Marlon Arias L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.86 | 19.8% | 11.2% | 3.7% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 154 | 66 |
| Manny Parra L 2027 · 3.33 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.33 | 18.4% | 10.3% | 0.9% | .351 | 2.43 | 17.3% | 11.0% | 27 | -0.90 | 2.43 | 114 | 66 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.