Bryan Sammons — OGILVIE

Bryan Sammons P Toledo Mud Hens

Age 31 LHP 6'4" / 235 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION41 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118126vR 134

ERA4.94

FIP5.32

K%18.0%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%7.9%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 48 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.5

Whiff%

p3623.3%

p1617.3%

xwOBA vs

p360.328

FB+8.6 (39%)

CU (8%)

SL (19%)

CT-0.9 (25%)

CH-1.9 (8%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	8	50	207	66	18	3	62%	3.9	22.7%	10.5%	12.2%	2.0%	2.50	3.58	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	8	50	207	66	18	3	62%	3.9	31.9%	8.7%	23.2%	1.4%	2.50	2.33	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	21	113	479	101	38	5	95%	5.1	15.5%	8.9%	6.5%	1.2%	3.91	3.60	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	21	113	479	101	38	5	95%	5.1	21.1%	7.9%	13.2%	1.0%	3.91	2.90	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	119	495	131	49	12	96%	4.8	21.1%	11.0%	10.0%	2.9%	3.18	4.28	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	119	495	131	49	12	96%	4.8	26.5%	9.9%	16.6%	2.4%	3.18	3.44	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	21	108	489	100	61	24	78%	4.0	17.0%	13.4%	3.6%	5.1%	6.52	6.16	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	21	108	489	100	61	24	78%	4.0	20.4%	12.5%	8.0%	4.9%	6.52	5.84	—
2022	27	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	37	1	50	219	59	17	14	3%	1.4	21.8%	8.5%	13.3%	7.8%	5.76	6.61	—
2022	27	AA RAW	Wichita Wind Surge	37	1	50	219	59	17	14	3%	1.4	26.9%	7.8%	19.2%	6.4%	5.76	5.40	—
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	17	82	363	95	38	16	89%	4.3	21.6%	10.0%	11.6%	5.3%	4.83	5.45	—
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	17	82	363	95	38	16	89%	4.3	21.6%	10.0%	11.6%	5.3%	4.83	5.45	—
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	17	82	363	95	38	16	89%	4.3	26.2%	10.5%	15.7%	4.4%	4.83	4.71	—
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	20	129	546	120	53	20	71%	4.6	18.8%	8.9%	9.9%	4.7%	4.04	5.22	-0.5
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	20	129	546	120	53	20	71%	4.6	18.8%	8.9%	9.9%	4.7%	4.04	5.22	-0.5
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	20	129	546	120	53	20	71%	4.6	22.0%	9.7%	12.3%	3.7%	4.04	4.48	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			6	0	27	104	18	9	6	0%	4.6	17.3%	8.7%	8.7%	5.8%	3.62	5.62	-0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	10	8	41	177	35	20	8	80%	4.1	16.4%	10.2%	6.2%	5.0%	4.83	5.73	—
YTD	31	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	10	8	41	177	35	20	8	80%	4.1	16.4%	10.2%	6.2%	5.0%	4.83	5.73	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	AAA RAW	DET	10	8	41	177	35	20	8	80%	4.1	19.8%	11.3%	8.5%	4.5%	4.83	5.34	—
ROS	31	MLB MLE	DET	1	1	7	29	5	3	1	100%	6.9	18.0%	10.1%	7.9%	3.8%	4.94	5.32	-0.0
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	DET	—	—	48	206	40	23	9	—	—	19.5%	11.1%	8.4%	4.4%	4.85	5.67	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	DET	12	12	71	299	53	31	12	100%	5.9	17.7%	10.4%	7.3%	4.0%	5.22	5.48	-0.5
2028	33	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	65	274	47	30	11	100%	5.9	17.3%	10.8%	6.5%	4.2%	5.45	5.67	-0.5
2027	32	MLB CTX	DET	4	4	26	110	19	11	4	100%	6.5	17.7%	10.4%	7.3%	4.0%	5.22	5.48	-0.2
2028	33	MLB CTX	DET	6	6	36	152	26	16	6	100%	6.0	17.3%	10.8%	6.5%	4.2%	5.45	5.67	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		16	10	90	368	64	37	17	62%	5.6	17.4%	10.1%	7.4%	4.6%	4.82	5.40	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	23	200	819	142	82	38	64%	5.5	17.4%	10.1%	7.4%	4.6%	4.82	5.40	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		181	120	692	2975	567	306	120	66%	3.8	19.0%	10.3%	8.7%	4.0%	4.41	5.01	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	35	200	860	164	89	35	66%	3.8	19.0%	10.3%	8.7%	4.0%	4.41	5.01	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryan Sammons (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.32	18.0%	10.1%	3.8%	—	5.57	17.5%	6.9%	136	+0.25	—	—	—
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	76
Travis Blackley L 2015 · 4.91 FIP	32	SP-	4.91	15.4%	6.4%	4.2%	.324	4.45	10.5%	0.0%	137	-0.46	3.85	225	76
Sean Nolin L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	31	SP-	4.54	20.4%	8.9%	3.7%	.316	5.93	18.6%	12.2%	23	+1.39	3.79	309	70
Anthony Vasquez L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	31	SW	4.64	17.1%	8.9%	3.4%	.322	6.00	14.6%	7.3%	85	+1.36	4.02	642	68
Luke Westphal L 2021 · 4.70 FIP	32	SP-	4.70	22.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.321	4.59	21.7%	7.5%	95	-0.11	2.97	294	66
Jorge Castillo L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	33	SP	4.50	16.8%	9.2%	3.0%	.292	4.95	12.4%	7.2%	186	+0.45	4.50	408	64
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	62
Arturo Lopez L 2015 · 4.80 FIP	32	SP	4.80	13.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.301	4.80	10.9%	4.2%	217	+0.00	4.34	445	61
Irwin Delgado L 2019 · 4.73 FIP	30	SP	4.73	15.6%	9.5%	3.2%	.404	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	383	60
Tomas Solis L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	32	SP	4.20	15.0%	6.2%	2.9%	.264	5.09	12.0%	3.7%	159	+0.89	4.20	327	60
Tyler Alexander L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	29	SW	5.27	15.7%	10.7%	3.9%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	5.27	128	60
Kelvin Marte L 2019 · 5.25 FIP	31	SP	5.25	12.0%	10.8%	3.3%	.340	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	360	59
Robbie Erlin L 2022 · 5.31 FIP	31	SP-	5.31	16.8%	10.2%	4.3%	.332	5.96	14.9%	7.2%	79	+0.65	3.22	520	59
Carlos Teller L 2017 · 4.63 FIP	30	SP	4.63	12.2%	9.6%	2.5%	.322	4.90	13.1%	-1.1%	60	+0.27	3.75	333	59
Brandon Mann L 2016 · 4.72 FIP	32	SP	4.72	19.4%	7.9%	4.1%	.320	3.97	19.0%	7.6%	128	-0.75	3.59	190	59
Marco Tovar L 2019 · 4.78 FIP	30	SP	4.78	12.6%	5.6%	3.7%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	327	58
Eric Surkamp L 2016 · 5.09 FIP	29	SP	5.09	16.4%	9.3%	4.0%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	182	58
Jason Vargas L 2015 · 4.31 FIP	32	SP	4.31	14.8%	6.6%	2.9%	.295	4.65	19.2%	12.1%	285	+0.34	4.02	478	57
Brad Mills L 2016 · 6.13 FIP	31	SP	6.13	14.4%	11.8%	5.0%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.63	182	56
Jonathon Niese L 2019 · 5.67 FIP	32	SP	5.67	10.9%	8.2%	4.5%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	368	56

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	71	17.7%	10.4%	1.53	5.19
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63