Bryan Sammons

P Toledo Mud Hens

Age 32 LHP 6'4" / 235 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	28	MIX2 levels	19	17	82	4.83	4.71	26.2%	10.5%	—	K 22.1% · BB 10.0% · FIP 5.40
2024	29	MIX2 levels	28	20	129	4.04	4.48	22.0%	9.7%	1.4	K 19.4% · BB 8.9% · FIP 5.18
2026	31	AAADET	10	8	41	4.83	5.39	19.8%	11.3%	—	K 17.0% · BB 10.2% · FIP 5.68
2027PROJ	32	MLBDET	1	1	5	4.77	5.17	17.3%	8.8%	0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	33	MLBDET	2	2	13	5.10	5.37	17.0%	9.3%	0.0
2029PROJ32% MLB	34	MLBDET	2	2	9	5.36	5.59	16.6%	9.8%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.4 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

xwOBA vs36

K%16

FB Velo10

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -1.1 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsSean Nolin (age 31) · Luke Westphal (age 32) · Everett Teaford (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115123vR 131

ERA4.77

FIP5.17

K%17.3%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%8.5%

Proj IP51

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.5

Whiff%

p3623.3%

p1617.3%

xwOBA vs

p360.328

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	8	50	207	66	18	3	62%	3.9	22.7%	10.5%	12.2%	2.0%	2.50	3.58	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	8	50	207	66	18	3	62%	3.9	31.9%	8.7%	23.2%	1.4%	2.50	2.33	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	21	113	479	101	38	5	95%	5.1	15.5%	8.9%	6.5%	1.2%	3.91	3.60	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	21	113	479	101	38	5	95%	5.1	21.1%	7.9%	13.2%	1.0%	3.91	2.90	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	119	495	131	49	12	96%	4.8	21.1%	11.0%	10.0%	2.9%	3.18	4.28	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	119	495	131	49	12	96%	4.8	26.5%	9.9%	16.6%	2.4%	3.18	3.44	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	21	108	489	100	61	24	78%	4.0	17.0%	13.4%	3.6%	5.1%	6.52	6.16	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	21	108	489	100	61	24	78%	4.0	20.4%	12.5%	8.0%	4.9%	6.52	5.84	—
2022	27	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	37	1	50	219	59	17	14	3%	1.4	21.8%	8.5%	13.3%	7.8%	5.76	6.61	—
2022	27	AA RAW	Wichita Wind Surge	37	1	50	219	59	17	14	3%	1.4	26.9%	7.8%	19.2%	6.4%	5.76	5.40	—
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	17	82	363	95	38	16	89%	4.3	22.1%	10.0%	12.1%	5.3%	4.83	5.40	—
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	17	82	363	95	38	16	89%	4.3	26.2%	10.5%	15.7%	4.4%	4.83	4.71	—
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	20	129	546	120	53	20	71%	4.6	19.4%	8.9%	10.5%	4.7%	4.04	5.18	+0.3
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	20	129	546	120	53	20	71%	4.6	19.4%	8.9%	10.5%	4.7%	4.04	5.18	+0.3
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	20	129	546	120	53	20	71%	4.6	22.0%	9.7%	12.3%	3.7%	4.04	4.48	+1.4
2026	31	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	10	8	41	177	35	20	8	80%	4.1	17.0%	10.2%	6.8%	5.0%	4.83	5.68	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	10	8	41	177	35	20	8	80%	4.1	17.0%	10.2%	6.8%	5.0%	4.83	5.68	—
2026	31	AAA RAW	Toledo Mud Hens	10	8	41	177	35	20	8	80%	4.1	19.8%	11.3%	8.5%	4.5%	4.83	5.39	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			6	0	27	104	18	9	6	0%	4.6	17.3%	8.7%	8.7%	5.8%	3.62	5.62	-0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	DET	1	1	5	21	4	2	1	100%	5.0	17.3%	8.8%	8.5%	3.7%	4.77	5.17	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	DET	6	6	36	152	26	14	6	100%	6.0	17.0%	9.3%	7.8%	3.9%	5.10	5.37	+0.0
2029	34	MLB MLE	DET	5	5	28	118	20	12	5	100%	5.6	16.6%	9.8%	6.8%	4.1%	5.36	5.59	-0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	DET	2	2	13	55	9	5	2	100%	6.5	17.0%	9.3%	7.8%	3.9%	5.10	5.37	+0.0
2029	34	MLB CTX	DET	2	2	9	38	6	4	2	100%	4.5	16.6%	9.8%	6.8%	4.1%	5.36	5.59	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	4	50	198	34	18	10	40%	5.0	17.1%	9.1%	8.0%	4.9%	4.33	5.51	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	15	200	798	137	73	40	38%	5.1	17.1%	9.1%	8.0%	4.9%	4.33	5.51	-2.1
Career	—	MLE		181	120	692	2975	573	306	120	66%	3.8	19.3%	10.3%	9.0%	4.0%	4.41	4.99	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	35	200	860	166	89	35	66%	3.8	19.3%	10.3%	9.0%	4.0%	4.41	4.99	-0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 41 IPFIP 5.34 → 5.68 (+0.34)K% 19.8% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.77%	—	×0.860	17.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.30%	—	×0.900	10.17%
HR / BF /BF	4.52%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.97%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.34 → 5.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 102 IPFIP 4.15 → 4.97 (+0.82)K% 23.1% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.08%	—	×0.860	19.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.95%	—	×0.900	8.96%
HR / BF /BF	3.17%	÷0.792	×1.100	4.40%

Result: FIP 4.15 → 4.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 60 IPFIP 4.64 → 5.35 (+0.71)K% 25.4% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.37%	—	×0.860	21.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.93%	—	×0.900	8.93%
HR / BF /BF	4.41%	÷0.901	×1.100	5.39%

Result: FIP 4.64 → 5.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAErie SeaWolves · 22 IPFIP 4.63 → 5.57 (+0.94)K% 28.6% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.57%	—	×0.810	23.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.09%	—	×1.100	13.30%
HR / BF /BF	4.40%	÷1.055	×1.200	5.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 111).

Result: FIP 4.63 → 5.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAWichita Wind Surge · 50 IPFIP 5.32 → 6.61 (+1.30)K% 26.9% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.94%	—	×0.810	21.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.76%	—	×1.100	8.54%
HR / BF /BF	6.39%	÷0.985	×1.200	7.79%

Result: FIP 5.32 → 6.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAWichita Wind Surge · 59 IPFIP 5.13 → 5.94 (+0.81)K% 26.4% → 21.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.38%	—	×0.810	21.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.42%	—	×1.100	12.56%
HR / BF /BF	5.12%	÷1.104	×1.200	5.56%

Result: FIP 5.13 → 5.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASt. Paul Saints · 49 IPFIP 6.21 → 6.39 (+0.18)K% 14.0% → 12.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.04%	—	×0.880	12.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.62%	—	×1.050	14.30%
HR / BF /BF	4.68%	÷1.121	×1.100	4.59%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 124).

Result: FIP 6.21 → 6.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 81 IPFIP 4.10 → 4.99 (+0.89)K% 24.9% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.93%	—	×0.810	20.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.56%	—	×1.100	11.61%
HR / BF /BF	3.23%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.87%

Result: FIP 4.10 → 4.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryan Sammons (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.7%	—	5.47	16.9%	7.4%	64	+0.30	—	—	—
Sean Nolin L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	31	SP-	4.54	20.4%	8.9%	3.7%	.316	5.87	19.3%	12.9%	23	+1.33	3.79	309	69
Luke Westphal L 2021 · 4.70 FIP	32	SP-	4.70	22.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.321	4.58	21.9%	7.6%	95	-0.12	2.97	294	65
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	208	64
Orlando Lara L 2017 · 4.39 FIP	32	SP	4.39	14.7%	6.5%	3.1%	.346	4.09	22.0%	14.2%	104	-0.30	3.85	426	62
Jorge Castillo L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	33	SP	4.50	16.8%	9.2%	3.0%	.292	4.95	12.4%	7.2%	186	+0.45	4.50	408	61
Matt Dermody L 2022 · 4.22 FIP	32	SP-	4.22	17.9%	5.5%	3.5%	.302	3.87	20.7%	16.1%	49	-0.35	2.38	348	60
Anthony Vasquez L 2019 · 6.00 FIP	32	SW	6.00	14.6%	7.3%	5.9%	.383	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	671	60
Arturo Lopez L 2015 · 4.80 FIP	32	SP	4.80	13.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.301	4.80	10.9%	4.2%	217	+0.00	4.34	445	59
Brandon Mann L 2016 · 4.72 FIP	32	SP	4.72	19.4%	7.9%	4.1%	.320	3.97	19.0%	7.6%	128	-0.75	3.59	190	59
Kelvin Marte L 2019 · 5.25 FIP	31	SP	5.25	12.0%	10.8%	3.3%	.340	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	360	58
Tomas Solis L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	32	SP	4.20	15.0%	6.2%	2.9%	.264	5.09	12.0%	3.7%	159	+0.89	4.20	327	58
Alejandro Soto L 2017 · 4.36 FIP	31	SW	4.36	13.8%	3.3%	3.7%	.323	4.03	17.1%	10.2%	61	-0.33	3.96	280	55
Paul Oseguera L 2016 · 5.62 FIP	32	SP	5.62	5.6%	12.5%	2.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	162	54
Alejandro Astorga L 2017 · 4.01 FIP	30	SP	4.01	14.4%	8.2%	2.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	311	54
Randy Keisler L 2007 · 5.51 FIP	31	SP-	5.51	6.5%	6.5%	3.9%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	5.07	135	54
Edgar Osuna L 2019 · 5.09 FIP	31	SW	5.09	10.0%	7.2%	3.5%	.373	—	—	—	—	—	5.05	175	53
Carlos Teller L 2019 · 4.90 FIP	32	SP-	4.90	13.1%	14.2%	2.0%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	333	53
Mike Montgomery L 2021 · 4.49 FIP	32	SP	4.49	18.5%	12.4%	2.5%	.347	4.44	15.5%	3.4%	147	-0.05	3.43	764	49
Travis Blackley L 2015 · 4.91 FIP	32	SP-	4.91	15.4%	6.4%	4.2%	.324	4.45	10.5%	0.0%	137	-0.46	3.85	409	49
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	39

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	36	17.1%	9.1%	1.63	4.75
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Giovanni Carrara ('06)	2.4	59	16.3%	9.7%	1.41	4.69
Julio Navarro ('62-'70, 1 WAR*)	1.1	53	21.7%*	7.8%*	1.55*	4.13*
Steve Kealey ('68-'73, -1 WAR*)	1.1	54	18.5%*	7.2%*	1.32*	5.26*